Jeter Gone

[Nugget]

I tend to agree, although recruiting rankings are allowed to be wrong, i.e. maybe he was just overrated.

I think it was a mistake to recruit too many bigs for this season. Some of that wasn't the staff's fault; Amile broke his foot last season, and we weren't going to refuse him the medical redshirt and return to Duke.

But there really was no reason to tack on Bolden in the spring to a roster already loaded with bigs. Their recruiting decisions last spring clearly indicated an intention to play two bigs together this season. But, purely from a player development standpoint, they needed to have more resolve to continue to play two bigs even after the injuries occurred and Giles and Bolden were set back. Otherwise, you end up with something silly like Chase being the 4th or 5th-string center.

I think you're right. Over-recruiting bigs, when Coach K has demonstrated over a 30 year sample that his preferred style of play is 4 around 1 with a small-ball stretch 4, doesn't make much sense. I suspect Bolden was just too shiny a target not to go after (especially with the chance to notch a recruiting win over Calipari) - but then he should have committed to play 2 bigs and given them chances without such a short leash during the course of the season rather than falling back on the crutch of going almost entirely with Tatum at PF.

[Jeffrey]

Brand won one of the major prep national player of the year awards (the exact rank is hard to find, since that is the last class not covered by the RSCI). Some gurus rated Burgess ahead of Brand, but most preferred Brand ... but both were top 10, even top 5 recruits.

Since then, our top 10 big ranked big men include Shelden Williams (No. 8), McRoberts (No. 1) ,Okafor (No. 1) and Giles (No. 2)

We can quibble about whether McRoberts was really a big man or more of a versatile four (and whether Singler and Parker belong on this list), but he was a productive freshman on a great team.

As CDu points out, when you get out of the top 10, there is a dropoff -- Randolph (14), Mason (18), etc. Even Bolden just missed the top 10 (No. 11).

But on the whole, our top 10 ranked prep big men have worked out as freshmen. Burgess is an exception ... Giles was hurt. But Brand, Boozer, McRoberts, Okafor all panned out. You can go back further to Ferry and maybe Laettner (although I'm not sure he was quite in the top 10)

In fact, if you look at Duke's top 10 ranked recruits at ANY position, the great majority have an immediate impact. It's possible that Carter is hurt or that he's a flop, but the odds are very good that he'll live up to the hype.

Much thanks, your memory blows mine away!

I thought Randolph was ranked in the top 10? Maybe, I'm recalling after his junior year? Or, maybe, it was all the local attention?

[gam7]

Giles is the only surefire top-5 guy at Duke who didn't start right away. And that's just simply isn't a reasonable comp for anyone. Two knee surgeries in less than 3 years.

Two ACLs, but three knee surgeries...

[OldPhiKap]

Thanks for being part of the Duke family, Chase, and I wish you the best of luck in your next endeavor!

[moonpie23]

Umm....'stuck around'?

poor wording...."continued" to stay involved and positive...

[Chard]

I really hope he succeeds. Unlike most transfers, I'll be following Jeter's. I really like the dude. But this transfer comes as zero surprise.

It still sucks!!! I had high hopes for him next year. I thought he did well at the beginning of this season.

The end of this season just gets better and better.

[CDu]

Much thanks, your memory blows mine away!

I thought Randolph was ranked in the top 10? Maybe, I'm recalling after his junior year? Or, maybe, it was all the local attention?

Randolph's high school career went a lot like Burgess': he peaked earlier than most. Coincidentally enough, he was passed by another bull-in-a-china-shop, 6'8" big man (Williams) just like Burgess was (Brand).

Randolph was a top-5 prospect before his senior year. But he was overtaken by a bunch of guys his senior year.

[Jeffrey]

And Tatum was a full-time starter, so...

I feel quite confident that - baring a major injury that comes out of nowhere - Carter will start and play major minutes next year. I'm not sure that it is reasonable - if Jeter was looking to start - to say "well, Carter might get hurt, so maybe I should stick around on the off-chance that he does."

I fully agree!

You believe Jeter will only be satisfied by starting, and I believe he would have been satisfied with substantial PT next season (which would have been very likely, if Bolden departs).

[Troublemaker]

Jeter just wasn't developed during his two years. He was overrated coming into college, but Duke never really saw progress. When we did see progress - in the non-conference schedule - it was a tease. Jeter couldn't capitalize on some improvement.

This is overstated. He clearly was better at the end of his freshman season than the beginning. And then he took another step up defensively this season. Against Florida State, he was so clearly better than Giles, it was comical. But soon thereafter, Amile returned from injury and soon after that Duke went full-time to a one-big lineup with Giles' development taking priority over both Bolden's and Chase's. And Bolden was ahead of Chase. So no more playing time.

As I wrote above, we recruited too many bigs for this season.

[DukieInKansas]

Thanks for being part of the Duke family, Chase, and I wish you the best of luck in your next endeavor!

This.

Thank you, Chase, for the time you were here. May the future meet all of your hopes and dreams.

[Jeffrey]

As I wrote above, we recruited too many bigs for this season.

No doubt!

[Jeffrey]

Randolph's high school career went a lot like Burgess': he peaked earlier than most. Coincidentally enough, he was passed by another bull-in-a-china-shop, 6'8" big man (Williams) just like Burgess was (Brand).

Randolph was a top-5 prospect before his senior year. But he was overtaken by a bunch of guys his senior year.

Much thanks, your memory also blows mine away!

[MChambers]

I think chalking this up entirely to Chase's physical frame or just not quite being good enough or the relative "weakness" of the 2015 recruiting class obscures what a massive player development failure there has been on the part of the coaching staff with regard to Chase.

The 2015 PF recruiting group is, somewhat surprisingly, not that weak. According to the 247 composite ratings, Chase was ranked 4th (behind Cheick Diallo, Ivan Rabb and Henry Ellenson) among a group that included the following in the Top 25: Thomas Bryant (5), Carlton Bragg (6), Deyonta Davis (7), DJ Hogg (8), Mamadi Diakite (9), Dedric Lawson (10) Chimezie Metu (11), Ray Spalding (12), Marquese Chriss (14), Esa Ahmad (15), Tyler Lydon (18), Noah Dickerson (19), Marcus Derrickson (20), Justin Patton (22) and Juwan Morgan (25).

All of those players have raced past Chase -- even ones like Hogg, Lawson, Dickerson and Derrickson who are not "stars" are credible D-1 players. And, it's not like Spalding, Lydon or Patton are physical freaks compared to Chase.

I don't think the coaching staff can be let entirely off the hook here.

I think the problem was that we didn't have noted big man coach Steve Wojciechowski to develop him.

[Jeffrey]

I think the problem was that we didn't have noted big man coach Steve Wojciechowski to develop him.

I would not underrate Nate.

[Olympic Fan]

Much thanks, your memory blows mine away!

I thought Randolph was ranked in the top 10? Maybe, I'm recalling after his junior year? Or, maybe, it was all the local attention?

There was a point in the summer before his junior year when Randolph was touted as the No. 1 player in his class. I could be misremembering, I think he was the only rising junior on the US Under 18 National Team that went to Moscow and won the world championship.

But in the spring of his senior year, Randolph hurt his foot. Trying to compensate, he developed leg problems. His production went way down. He was not very effective on the AAU circuit that summer. His stock dropped -- down to 14 in the RSCI. Now, the same thing happened to Chris Carrawell, who suffered injuries in both shoulders and dropped from the top 10 to barely in the top 50.

That worked out well. Randolph not so much.

Still, it's interesting. In his first game (against Army), Randolph had 23 points, seven rebounds. He made 1-3 3-pointers. The next time out against Davidson, he had 17 points and 12 rebounds. After two bad performances, he came back with 11 points and five rebounds in 17 minutes against Michigan.

That was the high point of his freshman season. He ended up averaging 7.4 points and 3.9 rebounds in 13.5 minutes a game. Those are actually not bad numbers.

Randolph had surgery that offseason to fix the issue that had bothered him since his junior year of high school. As a junior, he averaged 7.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and shot 59 percent from the floor in 19 minutes a game. As a junior, he got mono and had a less productive season. Then he jumped to the NBA (to help his family -- his father went bankrupt).

He played parts of eight seasons in the NBA and earned $8.9 million in NBA salary. So, hard to say it was a bad decision.

[Spanarkel]

I don't like hearing that Duke cannot develop big men. I don't think it's correct, and I don't think you can back it up with stats.

But I do 100% believe in the post above. Jeter just wasn't developed during his two years. He was overrated coming into college, but Duke never really saw progress. When we did see progress - in the non-conference schedule - it was a tease. Jeter couldn't capitalize on some improvement. The injury/surgery didn't help, but Jeter WAS healthy towards the latter part of the season. And I think Coach K could have used him.

I think Jeter's lack of develop isn't on Jeter; it's on everyone, especially the coaching staff. Coach K isn't perfect. He doesn't always make the right decision. Hell, the man is human!

If I'm Jeter, transferring is the right call. You get to sit out a year, get stronger, and then come in as a starter for a D-1 school and crush it. I don't think Jeter will turn into Semi 2.0; Jeter is more like a 12/5 kinda guy rather than a 20/10.

I really hope he succeeds. Unlike most transfers, I'll be following Jeter's. I really like the dude. But this transfer comes as zero surprise.

This reminded me of your statement earlier today that this year's UNC team has "half the talent" that this year's Duke team had.

[grateful_duke]

But on the whole, our top 10 ranked prep big men have worked out as freshmen. Burgess is an exception ... Giles was hurt. But Brand, Boozer, McRoberts, Okafor all panned out.

Do you truly believe #1 Josh McRoberts "panned out"....ehhhhhhhh

[Jeffrey]

There was a point in the summer before his junior year when Randolph was touted as the No. 1 player in his class. I could be misremembering, I think he was the only rising junior on the US Under 18 National Team that went to Moscow and won the world championship.

But in the spring of his senior year, Randolph hurt his foot. Trying to compensate, he developed leg problems. His production went way down. He was not very effective on the AAU circuit that summer. His stock dropped -- down to 14 in the RSCI. Now, the same thing happened to Chris Carrawell, who suffered injuries in both shoulders and dropped from the top 10 to barely in the top 50.

That worked out well. Randolph not so much.

Still, it's interesting. In his first game (against Army), Randolph had 23 points, seven rebounds. He made 1-3 3-pointers. The next time out against Davidson, he had 17 points and 12 rebounds. After two bad performances, he came back with 11 points and five rebounds in 17 minutes against Michigan.

That was the high point of his freshman season. He ended up averaging 7.4 points and 3.9 rebounds in 13.5 minutes a game. Those are actually not bad numbers.

Randolph had surgery that offseason to fix the issue that had bothered him since his junior year of high school. As a junior, he averaged 7.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and shot 59 percent from the floor in 19 minutes a game. As a junior, he got mono and had a less productive season. Then he jumped to the NBA (to help his family -- his father went bankrupt).

He played parts of eight seasons in the NBA and earned $8.9 million in NBA salary. So, hard to say it was a bad decision.

Much thanks! Your memory is truly amazing and most appreciated!

I'm starting to think you guys went to less Grateful Dead concerts than I did.

[budwom]

How many do you expect?

I always hope for more, but I've come to expect fewer...like six or so.

[daveduke76]

I think the real question for Bolden is, should he return? If you have not cracked K's tight 7 man rotation you just are not going to play. It's a real shame. So, if Bolden believes he is either going to start or be the first off the bench, he should return, if not, he will probably leave cause K is obviously not going to change at this point, and given the choice K is going to go with only 1 big in the game at a time and play small ball with a stretch 4. To assume that both Carter and Bolden will play significant minutes together next season goes against everything we've seen from K in the last 30 years. He much prefers to play an undersized 3 at the 4 spot instead of going big. So, I won't be at all surprised to see Bolden be the next to bolt.

In one of K's pressers after the game he alluded to increasing the depth of the rotation. For many reasons the 7 man rotation bit him this year. Should have had other players who could step in against South Carolina. Might have given Chase some minutes - might have stayed, seems like a great guy ...