This is going to be an interesting offseason to say the least

[scottdude8]

Yeah, I wasn't trying to be negative at all. And I'm agnostic as to what is actually going to happen. I do suspect we'll lose more than just the seniors and Tatum. I am also hopeful that we add more than just the current incoming freshman. But there are a WIDE range of potential rosters for next year, ranging from your scenario 1 in the "best" case to scenario 3 in the worst.

I have put quotes around "best" because in your scenario 1 we would then not be able to add any additional recruits. We would be at the 13 scholarship limit (Obi makes 13). Now, Obi could be asked to relinquish his scholarship to free up one spot if needed.

In that scenario though, we would be very lacking in perimeter players. One of White or DeLaurier or McConnell would almost have to crack the rotation to play Coach K's typically-preferred lineup (5 guards/wings/combo-forwards, 2-3 bigs). We'd have tons of big men, but (like this year) that would likely mean 2-3 bigs playing virtually no minutes.

So my guess would be that we'll lose at least one (if not multiple) of the bigs.

Didn't mean to say you were being negative at all, my bad if I phrased it that way. Meant it more as I do this as part of my post-season therapy, haha.

With regards to your comments, I'd really be OK if we kept experience and didn't get any new recruits. From what I understand there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/Tyus/Justice caliber still out there (although I could be wrong), and IMHO with the exception of those generational type talents experience usually takes the edge.

Also, in my "best" case scenario I think we'd be fine as long as one of White or McConnell can play spot minutes at the 2/3 (I'm very optimistic about White's future based on what little we saw this year). Plus, I would imagine K would adjust to his roster, as he's so adept at doing, to play a more traditional, NBA style with two bigs on the floor. That would be our huge advantage and we could push that. That being said I agree that we probably lose one or both of Harry and Marques, in which case we'd be back to more of a 3 guard, one combo, one forward/center lineup. But being a guy who loves traditional bigs (which is why I enjoy watching Purdue), a man can dream... haha.

[scottdude8]

I would not be shocked by other departures. I don't think anyone other than the folks you listed are realistic candidates to leave for the NBA. But other departures are possible. How many of us thought when last season ended that Thornton would leave?

Good point. I think it's an issue of phrasing, haha. I wouldn't be shocked if someone else left in general, but if you asked me about each individual player, I'd say in each individual case I'd be shocked.

I'm so tempted to do a nerdy probability analysis of those two statements but I refuse to ruin people's mourning period with bad math jokes, haha.

[Owen Meany]

I will be shocked if Giles returns. I hope he goes 10-20 based on potential, signs a deal, removes the knee brace and becomes a very solid player. After his first knee injury it was mentioned many times that he only got back to his old self after removing his knee brace. He just could not afford to do that given his history until he secures his financial future.

I wonder if Kennard's draft position is inflated. If he declares, I think the questions about his athleticism, defense, position, etc will be magnified. And more athletic players, foreign players, etc move up. But are his weaknesses something he can improve? I think that Kennard's front row seat of Allen's year increase the chance he declares.

I would have said Allen was definitely gone. It's hard to imagine wanting even fraction of the media scrutiny he got this year. ESPN made it very clear they were willing to villanize the kid even when they had to fabricate incidents to do so. So it's not something be can avoid by being on his best behaviour. But then again, do you declare knowing you are unlikely to be a first round pick? Maybe he can be like Boozer or even MP3 who got a guaranteed contract despite not being drafted.

Bolden was known in high school to be a low key guy who was going to have to work on his energy level. That's not uncommon among kids his age. So I expected this year to be a learning experience. I think anyone thinking he was OAD was basing this on his size alone, while ignoring the fact that the NBA has sharply turned away from using bids with his skill set. So I'm not sure declaring is actually an attractive option for him.

I have seen Jackson's name mentioned as potential OAD. I think that's from Duke fans who see flashes of really good play, but don't realize how many other really good players there are out there that we don't see.

Derryck Thornton transferred last year despite ample playing time and the opportunity to be the only PG on a team expected to be heavy favorites for the NCAA title. So you can not be sure what is going on in a kids (or his father's) head. So it will be interesting to see how things play out.

[budwom]

^ Regarding Bolden, I don't expect him to be OAD, but I also think it's unlikely he plays for Duke next year. I very much hope I'm wrong.

[mattman91]

McConnell is actually O'Connell.

Sorry to be that guy...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

^ Regarding Bolden, I don't expect him to be OAD, but I also think it's unlikely he plays for Duke next year. I very much hope I'm wrong.

If he isn't at Duke he goes from one and done to three years at the least. Would be quite a change.

[cruxer]

I think bigs are a real wildcard for next year, both in how many and quality. I'd love Harry to stay but he has to go if he's a first rounder. I have significant concerns that Chase may be a rich man's Casey Sanders. I don't think I've ever seen a basketball player fall down as much as Chase does. Hopefully he makes a leap between sophomore and junior year.

I went to the open practice Thursday and Chase looked great. Has he played at all recently? Maybe they're trying to redshirt him? It seems he would have been ahead of Vrank in the rotation otherwise...

-c

[kAzE]

Ha, you're falling into the same trap as last offseason. Change it to "if" and you can count me in.

Man you said it. Everyone PLEASE stay healthy over the off season, incoming freshmen included . . .

I would say Wendell is a sure thing if he stays healthy. That's the only caveat I'll throw in there. The kid is incredibly skilled, extremely strong, smart, and has a good head on his shoulders. As long as he stays healthy, he will be one of our best scorers, and should lead the team in rebounding. I don't know much about his defensive chops yet, but in terms of scoring and rebounding, I'm confident he will be VERY good . . . if he stays healthy.

^ Regarding Bolden, I don't expect him to be OAD, but I also think it's unlikely he plays for Duke next year. I very much hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're wrong, too. I hope he and Jeter both return, and have a spot in the rotation next year. Both of those guys really didn't get a chance this year to show what they are capable of.

[scottdude8]

^ Regarding Bolden, I don't expect him to be OAD, but I also think it's unlikely he plays for Duke next year. I very much hope I'm wrong.

Any inside info there, or is that just reading the tea leaves? I have no inside info besides what I've seen on the court and similarities to the situations of past Duke players, specifically Gbinije a few seasons back, so I'm similarly concerned. But I also think in the "get to the NBA quick" era, transferring would be a weird choice for a guy with first round potential (I think Rodney Hood was very much an unusual case in that regard, but it also seems to have served him well given how well he's performing in the NBA right now).

[budwom]

If he isn't at Duke he goes from one and done to three years at the least. Would be quite a change.

Yeah, I'm hoping that calculus makes him susceptible to K's retention efforts.

[CDu]

With regards to your comments, I'd really be OK if we kept experience and didn't get any new recruits. From what I understand there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/Tyus/Justice caliber still out there (although I could be wrong), and IMHO with the exception of those generational type talents experience usually takes the edge.

The three guys that we are recruiting are Bamba (#1 recruit in the class and a potential game-changing interior player), Duval (#5 recruit and the top PG in the class), and Knox (#9 recruit and the #2 combo forward in the class). Each offers something that we either definitely don't have (in the case of Duval and Knox) or might not have (in the case of Bamba if Giles and Bolden are gone). So I think that I disagree with your assessment that there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/T.Jones/Winslow recruit still out there.

Also, in my "best" case scenario I think we'd be fine as long as one of White or McConnell can play spot minutes at the 2/3 (I'm very optimistic about White's future based on what little we saw this year). Plus, I would imagine K would adjust to his roster, as he's so adept at doing, to play a more traditional, NBA style with two bigs on the floor. That would be our huge advantage and we could push that. That being said I agree that we probably lose one or both of Harry and Marques, in which case we'd be back to more of a 3 guard, one combo, one forward/center lineup. But being a guy who loves traditional bigs (which is why I enjoy watching Purdue), a man can dream... haha.

If one of White and McConnell can step in as a rotation player next year AND we do commit to a two-big lineup, then maybe we'd be fine. But I'm skeptical for two reasons.

1. Very few teams play with a two-big lineup in this era. Even Purdue doesn't really play a true 2-big lineup that much. Haas and Swanigan combine for about 50 mpg, and share the floor for only about 12 mpg. And when they are on the court together, Swanigan plays like a stretch 4 (he shoots 43% from 3). They play most of the game with a combo forward (Edwards, who shoots 42% from 3) at PF. Mobility and interchangeability is a big part of defensive effectiveness, so the two-big approach is a bit dinosaurish.

2. I'm also not all that sure that White and McConnell will be ready to contribute key minutes next year. White definitely didn't look up to it against ACC competition this year.

[scottdude8]

The three guys that we are recruiting are Bamba (#1 recruit in the class and a potential game-changing interior player), Duval (#5 recruit and the top PG in the class), and Knox (#9 recruit and the #2 combo forward in the class). Each offers something that we either definitely don't have (in the case of Duval and Knox) or might not have (in the case of Bamba if Giles and Bolden are gone). So I think that I disagree with your assessment that there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/T.Jones/Winslow recruit still out there.



If one of White and McConnell can step in as a rotation player next year AND we do commit to a two-big lineup, then maybe we'd be fine. But I'm skeptical for two reasons.

1. Very few teams play with a two-big lineup in this era. Even Purdue doesn't really play a true 2-big lineup that much. Haas and Swanigan combine for about 50 mpg, and share the floor for only about 12 mpg. And when they are on the court together, Swanigan plays like a stretch 4 (he shoots 43% from 3). They play most of the game with a combo forward (Edwards, who shoots 42% from 3) at PF. Mobility and interchangeability is a big part of defensive effectiveness, so the two-big approach is a bit dinosaurish.

2. I'm also not all that sure that White and McConnell will be ready to contribute key minutes next year. White definitely didn't look up to it against ACC competition this year.

All good points. TBH I didn't realize all the recruits were that solid... I was under the impression that they were 10-25 ranked guys, not Top 10. I think I got excited about Trent and Carter and stopped following recruiting in detail.

That makes things a lot more interesting, to be sure.

[Billy Dat]

The three guys that we are recruiting are Bamba (#1 recruit in the class and a potential game-changing interior player), Duval (#5 recruit and the top PG in the class), and Knox (#9 recruit and the #2 combo forward in the class). Each offers something that we either definitely don't have (in the case of Duval and Knox) or might not have (in the case of Bamba if Giles and Bolden are gone). So I think that I disagree with your assessment that there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/T.Jones/Winslow recruit still out there.

If one of White and McConnell can step in as a rotation player next year AND we do commit to a two-big lineup, then maybe we'd be fine. But I'm skeptical for two reasons.

1. Very few teams play with a two-big lineup in this era. Even Purdue doesn't really play a true 2-big lineup that much. Haas and Swanigan combine for about 50 mpg, and share the floor for only about 12 mpg. And when they are on the court together, Swanigan plays like a stretch 4 (he shoots 43% from 3). They play most of the game with a combo forward (Edwards, who shoots 42% from 3) at PF. Mobility and interchangeability is a big part of defensive effectiveness, so the two-big approach is a bit dinosaurish.

It is very tough to get on the court for K these days if you are a big who can't shoot a 3 or guard the perimeter. In most cases, we only play one guy like that at a time, and he is surrounded by 4 guys that can shoot and drive. This year, it was Amile. Harry had a rep as a shooter, but we saw only the most fleeting glimpses. As such, assuming Harry leaves, when you look at Bolden/Jeter/Javin/Vrank and then with us recruiting Bamba...if we have all of them...one will start, one will come off the bench...and the other 3 won't play at all...if you agree with that assessment and do the math, it's hard to picture everyone sticking around.

[CDu]

McConnell is actually O'Connell.

Sorry to be that guy...

Yeesh. No need to apologize. That is an embarrassing mistake on my part.

[CDu]

It is very tough to get on the court for K these days if you are a big who can't shoot a 3 or guard the perimeter. In most cases, we only play one guy like that at a time, and he is surrounded by 4 guys that can shoot and drive. This year, it was Amile. Harry had a rep as a shooter, but we saw only the most fleeting glimpses. As such, assuming Harry leaves, when you look at Bolden/Jeter/Javin/Vrank and then with us recruiting Bamba...if we have all of them...one will start, one will come off the bench...and the other 3 won't play at all...if you agree with that assessment and do the math, it's hard to picture everyone sticking around.

I agree with this 100%. And I'd probably add Carter to that mix as a guy who isn't really a floor spacer on offense or a mobile perimeter defender. The scouting reports on him seem a bit like Okafor's scouting reports, with maybe a bit better midrange game.

[79-77]

I hate to say it, but my impression generally is that when there is a reasonable possibility that a guy will turn pro -- he usually turns pro.

So I am assuming that Allen, Kennard and Giles all turn pro (along with Tatum). I will be surprised (and delighted!) if either Allen or Kennard returns, and shocked if Giles returns.

I also think it is pretty close to 50/50 that Bolden and, yes, Jackson turn pro as well. I wouldn't be surprised if either of them returns, but I will be surprised if they both return.

On the positive side, I think it's pretty likely that Duke ends up getting one or 2 of the 3 high-end recruits whom Duke is in the mix for -- especially once they see how much PT is going to be available.

I'm also fairly optimistic that one or 2 of Jeter, Vrank and DeLaurier is going to develop into the tough upperclassmen leaders the team is going to need.

Pretty bumpy ride this season but there were plenty of great moments.

Thanks for the memories, Amile and Matt. You were both great.

[jimsumner]

Should the attrition rate be on the high end, I would expect Duke to seriously evaluate grad-student transfer options.

[kAzE]

I agree with this 100%. And I'd probably add Carter to that mix as a guy who isn't really a floor spacer on offense or a mobile perimeter defender. The scouting reports on him seem a bit like Okafor's scouting reports, with maybe a bit better midrange game.

Check out his scouting report on DE: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...-Carter-83183/

I think he's more mobile and better defensively than Okafor, but does not have the elite post scoring game that Okafor has. The report says he has a good mid-range jumper, but his career free throw shooting percentage (63%) makes me wonder about that.

[FerryFor50]

I agree with this 100%. And I'd probably add Carter to that mix as a guy who isn't really a floor spacer on offense or a mobile perimeter defender. The scouting reports on him seem a bit like Okafor's scouting reports, with maybe a bit better midrange game.

I've seen reports that he has range that extends to the three point line.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...-Carter-83183/

Strengths
-Strong, mature frame. Somewhere between 6'9 and 6'10, but has a huge 7'3 (or possibly 7'4) wingspan that will allow him to play the center position at any level considering his ripped 254 pound frame -Mobile and explosive. Looks like he's improved his athleticism. Quick off his feet
-Outstanding finisher around the basket. Has great hands. Bouncy and powerful off two feet. Great pick and roll target
-Has some skill around the paint as well. Throws in swooping hook shots with either hand
-Made a handful of 3s in the EYBL as well as in the USA Basketball training camp. Looks like something he can continue to develop
-Mid-range stroke looks good
-Shows some flashes putting the ball down in a straight line. Can bulldoze his way through the lane with his strength
-Solid passer. Has a good basketball IQ
-Protects the rim with timing, length and smarts
-Loves to compete on the interior on both ends of the floor. Has no qualms about throwing his body around
-Plays with great intensity level defensively. Covers ground well

Weaknesses
-Early bloomer physically. Body hasn't changed much in the last two years.
-Very good athlete, but not a freak
-Relies heavily on his strength operating with his back to the basket. Will need to continue to add counter moves and polish as the competition stiffens.
-Still working on the consistency of his outside shot. Mechanics are sound. Just not always on balance with his footwork. Leaves a lot of his misses short
-Shot just 59% from the free throw line in EYBL play. 67% at the U17s. Career 63%
-Bites on fakes defensively. Will get backed down at times. Still working on making the right rotations and reads, particularly on the pick and roll

[Billy Dat]

I agree with this 100%. And I'd probably add Carter to that mix as a guy who isn't really a floor spacer on offense or a mobile perimeter defender. The scouting reports on him seem a bit like Okafor's scouting reports, with maybe a bit better midrange game.

I guess another way to look at it is that with K, you have to be one of the top 7. If the top 7 include 2 elite low block monsters who can't shoot beyond 15 feet, then he'll find a way to work with them...but what are the odds that would ever happen?

I suspect that Antonio is a 4 year Duke player. The rest of the front court guys I mentioned earlier...I could never blame a kid for choosing to leave if they aren't seeing the court. Imagine being good enough to be recruited by Duke and then never playing when you could be somewhere else, a good somewhere else with a good coach, and starting. Would you rather ride the bench at Duke or start at Wichita State? Dayton? maybe even some bigger name programs? Granted, you lose "the sweet life" of charter planes, 5 star hotels, all the value that comes with the Duke education and network (both the school and the basketball network). It's really hard for these guys.