2017 NBA Draft Thread

[JasonEvans]

DeAndre Jordan, Kyle Lowry, and Draymond Green too. And Jimmy Butler and Isiah Thomas will likely join them this year.

Just so we are clear, I was not saying it was impossible for a non-lottery pick to be an All-NBA kind of player. I am aware of many examples of guys who were taken late but who turned into excellent players (if not All-NBA). CDu named several really good ones and I would add to his list Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, Trevor Ariza, Monta Ellis, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Manu Ginobli, Carlos Boozer, Mark Price, and Dennis Rodman (perhaps the best 2nd round pick in modern NBA* history... I need to do some research on this). There are many more.

I was merely pointing out that --d espite those names -- it is exceedingly rare to get All-star level talent from guys outside the lottery. Once you get into the mid-late teens you've got less than a 50-50 chance of even drafting a guy who will consistently start at some point in his career, let alone be a real impact player. But, we all know that Harry has the potential to be a truly special player. No GM ever lost his job for messing up a mid-teen pick by taking a crazy telent that did not pan out. The more I think about it the less likely I think it is that Harry lasts until even the 20th pick in the draft.

-Jason "I double-dog guarantee you that if he is somehow on the board in the late 20s when the Spurs are drafting, it will take only a few seconds for the best drafting team in the NBA to figure out what to do" Evans

* - There was a time when the NBA had regional draft picking and other strange rules which makes comparisons to the modern draft (post 1980) pretty unreliable

[superdave]

Cool article ranking the best 2nd rounders since 1989 - http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/06/nba-...li-gasol-ranks

Manu is a hall of famer. Draymond could be eventually. The rest of these guys had some highs, but did not quite achieve greatness for a sustained period. ie Boozer was a two time All-Star with $146m in career earnings but a 0.6% chance of making the Hall according to Basketball Reference: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...boozeca01.html

[brevity]

Bumping up this thread to remind everyone that the NBA Draft Lottery is tonight. This is your chance to see awkwardly smiling team representatives -- all dudes -- some of whom will stop smiling when they leave without any pick at all. The suits, the pageantry, the balls.

ESPN says it starts at 8pm ET, but my onscreen guide says nothing happens until 8:30pm ET. You decide.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Bumping up this thread to remind everyone that the NBA Draft Lottery is tonight. This is your chance to see awkwardly smiling team representatives -- all dudes -- some of whom will stop smiling when they leave without any pick at all. The suits, the pageantry, the balls.

ESPN says it starts at 8pm ET, but my onscreen guide says nothing happens until 8:30pm ET. You decide.

The lottery is the most pointless show there is as you can easily turn it on 2 minutes from the end and find out what happened, but it is appointment TV for me every year. I am personally excited to share with non-New Yorkers the sartorial splendor of Walt Frazier representing the Knicks - I'm sure he will be wearing one of his finest custom suits.

[brevity]

Every year DBR does a Mock Draft, but why don't we do a Mock Lottery? Maybe we should...

DBR Mock Lottery: Historic Ratings-Drawing Franchises "Magic"ally Win Highly Uncorruptable Process

NEW YORK, NY -- The fates of a handful of NBA franchises were decided Tuesday night, as the 2017 NBA Draft lottery took place at the New York Hilton Midtown. To the delight of uncreative fans and cable TV executives, the Los Angeles Lakers received the first overall pick and the Boston Celtics finished second. The New York Knicks, which had only an 18.3 percent chance of jumping into the Top 3, did just that, winning the third pick.

Magic Johnson, who represented the Lakers on stage in his first year as President of Basketball Operations, was all smiles as his team held onto a pick they could have lost to the Philadelphia 76ers had they fallen out of the Top 3. "Showtime returns today," he said. "I was getting tired of HBO."

Johnson did not specify whether he would be drafting UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball, whose father Lavar Ball has been making headlines in the past few months. Lots and lots of clickable ESPN headlines. And generating sweet, sweet hot takes on all those panel shows. So, yeah, the Lakers are taking Lonzo Ball.

Former Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak had only positive things to say about the results. "It was pretty close to my mock lottery board," he said. "I don't have much to do these days, so I played that ESPN lottery generator about 10,000 times and picked my favorite outcomes. That's science, right?"

Not everyone was convinced of the sanctity of the lottery process. "The fix was in because Magic Johnson is a star, and ESPN loses millions if they can't promote a Celtics-Lakers rivalry that no longer exists," said a mysterious phone caller. "I've done this before. Call me Dav -- uh, Daniel. No wait, Daniel Stern is that actor from Home Alone. I mean, not that my name is Stern. I'm nobody. Um, forget everything I said. Goodbye."

[Olympic Fan]

The lottery drawing, coming up in a few minutes, is going to have special resonance this year since the Lakers owe the 76ers their first round pick -- unless it's in the top three.

And Boston gets the Nets' first round pick no matter where it is -- and it can't be worse than fourth.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The rich get richer, my friend. Boston with the #1 pick.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Ball in LA will be America's worst nightmare. Please spare us from this misery!

Clyde did not underwhelm with his dapper attire.

[flyingdutchdevil]

If I'm Boston, I would want Fultz - who can play the 1 or the 2 - but the truth is that he's likely a slight upgrade over Avery/Thomas. Crowder is good, but he's a defensive specialist. The player that the Celts should be gunning for is Jayson Tatum. However, taking Tatum at the 1 doesn't make much sense, given that Fultz/Ball are seen as higher draftable prospects.

So, what do you do? My two cents? Switch picks with the 76ers or the Suns. Both really, really covet Fultz. Both need him (especially if the Suns offload Bledsoe this offseason). And, in return, the Celts can get another player (like Okafor, TJ Warren, or even an unhappy Bledsoe).

It's hilarious to me that the Celts need SF/PF help more than anything and the top 2-3 picks are guards.

[niveklaen]

This is what the NBA needs to do to make the lottery more entertaining, heighten league rivalries, and dis-incentivize tanking:

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports...d_prevent.html

I would so watch this and it would create crazy great story lines throughout the season

[kAzE]

If I'm Boston, I would want Fultz - who can play the 1 or the 2 - but the truth is that he's likely a slight upgrade over Avery/Thomas. Crowder is good, but he's a defensive specialist. The player that the Celts should be gunning for is Jayson Tatum. However, taking Tatum at the 1 doesn't make much sense, given that Fultz/Ball are seen as higher draftable prospects.

So, what do you do? My two cents? Switch picks with the 76ers or the Suns. Both really, really covet Fultz. Both need him (especially if the Suns offload Bledsoe this offseason). And, in return, the Celts can get another player (like Okafor, TJ Warren, or even an unhappy Bledsoe).

It's hilarious to me that the Celts need SF/PF help more than anything and the top 2-3 picks are guards.

Isaiah Thomas is an elite scorer, but that guy kills you on defense, and he's already 28, which means he's probably not going to be doing this for much longer than 3-5 more years at his size. The guy takes a lot of punishment. His ultimate destiny is a scorer off the bench. I'd take Fultz, groom him for a couple of years, and then re-focus the team around him when the time is right, but keep Thomas as a spark plug off the bench.

You don't need Tatum, you already have your small forward of the future in Jaylen Brown. Fultz is the best prospect, he's someone who is as close to a sure All-Star as there is in this draft.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Isaiah Thomas is an elite scorer, but that guy kills you on defense, and he's already 28, which means he's probably not going to be doing this for much longer than 3-5 more years at his size. The guy takes a lot of punishment. His ultimate destiny is a scorer off the bench. I'd take Fultz, groom him for a couple of years, and then re-focus the team around him when the time is right, but keep Thomas as a spark plug off the bench.

You don't need Tatum, you already have your small forward of the future in Jaylen Brown. Fultz is the best prospect, he's someone who is as close to a sure All-Star as there is in this draft.

Boston can ill-afford to groom a player right now. Their window is the next 2-3 years. As you mentioned, Isaiah is 28. Horford is 30. Bradley is 26 (with 2 years left on his extremely favorable contract). Tatum is by far the most NBA-ready player. He can be used in the rotation today and be a starter during his second year.

I would hope the Celtics either trade the pick for a superstar or trade down and get a veteran plus a top 5 pick for Tatum. I think those are their best options. Fultz is likely to be an All-Star, but he's merely not ready and Bradley/Isaiah are much better players right now.

[kAzE]

Boston can ill-afford to groom a player right now. Their window is the next 2-3 years. As you mentioned, Isaiah is 28. Horford is 30. Bradley is 26 (with 2 years left on his extremely favorable contract). Tatum is by far the most NBA-ready player. He can be used in the rotation today and be a starter during his second year.

I would hope the Celtics either trade the pick for a superstar or trade down and get a veteran plus a top 5 pick for Tatum. I think those are their best options. Fultz is likely to be an All-Star, but he's merely not ready and Bradley/Isaiah are much better players right now.

I dunno, I think you have a long way to go to catch LeBron and the Cavs within the next 2-3 years. I think the more realistic window for Boston is in 2020-2023, whenever LeBron finally starts to slow down, and before Giannis gets enough help to take over the league. Horford will be effective for a long time, his game was never about his explosiveness to begin with. He will continue to be a nice spot up shooter, passer, and defensive specialist well into his 30s.

I'm not sure about the long term future of Thomas with the franchise, since he will be asking for a ton of money in a couple of years. He's a Boston fan favorite, that's for sure, but a 1-way player getting paid max money is not a great asset. That's why you need Fultz. He's a cheap Isaiah replacement who has way better potential, both as a scorer and defender. And I think he's more NBA ready than you are letting on.

You still have multiple first round picks (including Brookyn's 2018, Clippers' and Grizzlies' 2019, and your own picks in those years) that you can deal for a veteran player to round out the roster. Passing on Fultz in this draft would be a mistake IMO. Fultz, Bradley, Horford, and Brown are a core who could contend in few years. I just don't see it happening for the Celtics as long as LeBron is still in his prime. If (and most likely when) he beats the Celtics this year, it'll be 7 straight Finals. He's a machine.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I dunno, I think you have a long way to go to catch LeBron and the Cavs within the next 2-3 years. I think the more realistic window for Boston is in 2020-2023, whenever LeBron finally starts to slow down, and before Giannis gets enough help to take over the league. Horford will be effective for a long time, his game was never about his explosiveness to begin with. He will continue to be a nice spot up shooter, passer, and defensive specialist well into his 30s.

I'm not sure about the long term future of Thomas with the franchise, since he will be asking for a ton of money in a couple of years. He's a Boston fan favorite, that's for sure, but a 1-way player getting paid max money is not a great asset. That's why you need Fultz. He's a cheap Isaiah replacement who has way better potential, both as a scorer and defender. And I think he's more NBA ready than you are letting on.

You still have multiple first round picks (including Brookyn's 2018, Clippers' and Grizzlies' 2019, and your own picks in those years) that you can deal for a veteran player to round out the roster. Passing on Fultz in this draft would be a mistake IMO. Fultz, Bradley, Horford, and Brown are a core who could contend in few years. I just don't see it happening for the Celtics as long as LeBron is still in his prime. If (and most likely when) he beats the Celtics this year, it'll be 7 straight Finals. He's a machine.

Kyrie says hello.

Isaiah will get max money, and the Celtics will happily pay. He sells lots of tickets and is most certainly part of the reason they are in the Eastern Conference Finals (yes, yes, East sucks. But that's still a big accomplishment). For the record, I agree that Isaiah isn't the best player (Bradley gets that. He's arguably one of the best 2-way players in the game and his offense isn't bad). But he adds a lot of value.

I disagree with your window. Horford will be super old by 2020 and likely a rotation player rather than a top 3 player on the Celts. Bradley will be in the downhill side of his prime. The window is the next 2-3 years.

[superdave]

If I am Boston, and believe the Lakers want Ball, I move Ball to #1 on my Draft Board and let it be known.

Then you can trade the #1 and Isaiah Thomas for the #2 and one of Ingram/Russell/Randle.

Boston would have Fultz to play right away and avoid having to pay a max deal to Thomas. Celtics fans may riot, but do you really want to pay 29 year old Thomas $25m a year once his contract is up next year? Thomas is cool but at 5'7'', his body aint gonna last. Sell high.

The Lakers do this because they've been in re-build mode too long, are likely to get Paul George or another mega free agent soon and want to win now. Boston is winning now and can still play the long game.

If I'm Boston, I would want Fultz - who can play the 1 or the 2 - but the truth is that he's likely a slight upgrade over Avery/Thomas. Crowder is good, but he's a defensive specialist. The player that the Celts should be gunning for is Jayson Tatum. However, taking Tatum at the 1 doesn't make much sense, given that Fultz/Ball are seen as higher draftable prospects.

So, what do you do? My two cents? Switch picks with the 76ers or the Suns. Both really, really covet Fultz. Both need him (especially if the Suns offload Bledsoe this offseason). And, in return, the Celts can get another player (like Okafor, TJ Warren, or even an unhappy Bledsoe).

It's hilarious to me that the Celts need SF/PF help more than anything and the top 2-3 picks are guards.

Isaiah Thomas is an elite scorer, but that guy kills you on defense, and he's already 28, which means he's probably not going to be doing this for much longer than 3-5 more years at his size. The guy takes a lot of punishment. His ultimate destiny is a scorer off the bench. I'd take Fultz, groom him for a couple of years, and then re-focus the team around him when the time is right, but keep Thomas as a spark plug off the bench.

You don't need Tatum, you already have your small forward of the future in Jaylen Brown. Fultz is the best prospect, he's someone who is as close to a sure All-Star as there is in this draft.

Boston can ill-afford to groom a player right now. Their window is the next 2-3 years. As you mentioned, Isaiah is 28. Horford is 30. Bradley is 26 (with 2 years left on his extremely favorable contract). Tatum is by far the most NBA-ready player. He can be used in the rotation today and be a starter during his second year.

I would hope the Celtics either trade the pick for a superstar or trade down and get a veteran plus a top 5 pick for Tatum. I think those are their best options. Fultz is likely to be an All-Star, but he's merely not ready and Bradley/Isaiah are much better players right now.

[kAzE]

If I am Boston, and believe the Lakers want Ball, I move Ball to #1 on my Draft Board and let it be known.

Then you can trade the #1 and Isaiah Thomas for the #2 and one of Ingram/Russell/Randle.

Oh man, that's sinister. I like it.

In a vacuum, I would absolutely take Ball #1 overall. He's a pure point guard, which is rare. Most point guards these days are scorers. Ball makes everyone better. But he's inextricably tied to LA and the Lakers, and his father is a real concern. I don't want that guy undermining my coach and/or GM on ESPN and Twitter every day. That's a major headache . . .

But if you can extort a young player from the Lakers and still get Fultz, that's a coup for the ages. I'm not sure they can get it done. I think the Lakers would be happy to get Fultz, and wouldn't do that trade.

[ChillinDuke]

Bumping up this thread to remind everyone that the NBA Draft Lottery is tonight. This is your chance to see awkwardly smiling team representatives -- all dudes -- some of whom will stop smiling when they leave without any pick at all. The suits, the pageantry, the balls.

ESPN says it starts at 8pm ET, but my onscreen guide says nothing happens until 8:30pm ET. You decide.

They were both wrong. I checked my watch at 8:50pm ET when Mark Tatum fired up the podium.

- Chillin

[flyingdutchdevil]

They were both wrong. I checked my watch at 8:50pm ET when Mark Tatum fired up the podium.

- Chillin

When you fire hundreds of employees over the last few years, you need to somehow fill the same number of hours with fewer employees. This means a) repeating content or b) lying to your viewers about the time so they decide to stick around for 50 minutes until the real content is shown.

[Troublemaker]

Kyrie says hello.

Isaiah will get max money, and the Celtics will happily pay. He sells lots of tickets and is most certainly part of the reason they are in the Eastern Conference Finals (yes, yes, East sucks. But that's still a big accomplishment). For the record, I agree that Isaiah isn't the best player (Bradley gets that. He's arguably one of the best 2-way players in the game and his offense isn't bad). But he adds a lot of value.

I disagree with your window. Horford will be super old by 2020 and likely a rotation player rather than a top 3 player on the Celts. Bradley will be in the downhill side of his prime. The window is the next 2-3 years.

You can extend the window by drafting and keeping studs like Fultz, though. The team to emulate is the Spurs, and Boston has the coach / GM tandem for that to be a reasonable goal.

Trading away Fultz to pick Tatum would be a big, big mistake, imo. Fultz is going to be much better.

[superdave]

If you were to trade a seasoned player for a draft pick, how closely do the salaries have to match up?

ie Can the Celtics trade Thomas straight up for a pick #3-6?