I’m a homer, but honestly, I feel like Tatum is quite undervalued at less than a #3 pick for his upside. The “experts” are all over the place with no real consensus to the Top 5 picks, but I’m a little surprised as to how he has (relatively speaking) flown under the radar recently, especially for a league that values height with shooting. Granted, Tatum is mostly featured in highlights driving and dunking in the lane. Case in point on the recent ESPN Sports Science special re: NBA Draft, producers, in campy fashion, covered him in chainmail armor to test his ability to dunk as a metaphor for people hanging on him. It proved nothing really or was an applicable game scenario unless an opponent was flagrantly fouling by literally draping him. Again, it was a just-for-fun episode, but I think that it speaks to how Tatum is being visualized and evaluated by the press, when in fact
I see him being a potential All-Star caliber small forward in the image of Kevin Durant. He’s got the handle and versatility of say Grant Hill, but if he consistently finds his range, and can shoot well, he'll have lots of scoring opportunities in the wide-open and lax-defense NBA. So he’s going to have to work on his outside shooting to even come close, but that’s obtainable, because he's got good mechanics and showed flashes of consistency. Tatum’s body of work that foreshadows his potential was really apparent during the epic, ACC tournament run (he had the most field goals over Kennard) and into the NCAA Tourney. His shooting release point is so high, and so quick, that he’s hard to defend (even by the best defender outside). I hope he doesn’t drop down and get picked by the Suns – because they’re just “terr’ble” (as Charles would say) – when he would fit in nicely with a contending team in Boston if they trade their pick. Again, this might be a homer’s perspective, but I see Tatum as being a pick that a lot of teams wished they didn’t pass on him (picks 1 thru 4). If he goes lower than 5, yikes. Perhaps GMs are just keeping it chill so they can grab him?
Anyhow, compared to Durant in college, Tatum has a strong shot percentage but would need to up his outside shot:
Durant
College Year GP GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
Texas 2006–07 35 35 35.9 .473 .404 .816 11.1 1.3 1.9 1.9 25.8
Tatum
Year Team GP GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
2016–17 Duke 29 27 33.3 .452 .342 .849 7.3 2.1 1.3 1.1 16.8
Hope he goes early.