2017 NBA Draft Thread

[Troublemaker]

I think Tatum is the best NBA talent, to come out of Duke, since Irving. Thoughts?

However, I'll change that opinion, if Giles gets back to 100%.

I think I like both Brandon and Jabari better, although we'll have to see how Jabari recovers from his 2nd ACL tear. Brandon was longer and a better shooter and defender, and Jabari was a more explosive athlete. I guess you could say I'm not that high on Jayson (but then again, it's no shame to be less than Brandon and Jabari, who were overall #2 picks, if I'm right.)

[Jeffrey]

I think I like both Brandon and Jabari better, although we'll have to see how Jabari recovers from his 2nd ACL tear. Brandon was longer and a better shooter and defender, and Jabari was a more explosive athlete. I guess you could say I'm not that high on Jayson (but then again, it's no shame to be less than Brandon and Jabari, who were overall #2 picks, if I'm right.)

Or, maybe, you could say neither of us are that high on Okafor.

[Kfanarmy]

I think Tatum is the best NBA talent, to come out of Duke, since Irving. Thoughts?

However, I'll change that opinion, if Giles gets back to 100%.

Interesting...what in Giles college play leads you to believe this? To be frank, I was surprised he was taken as high in the draft as he was...behind Kennard. We'll see how it turns out, but I'd be more surprised by the kind of success you imply than I would if he has more of a journeyman career.

[cato]

I think Tatum is the best NBA talent, to come out of Duke, since Irving. Thoughts?

However, I'll change that opinion, if Giles gets back to 100%.

I am a bad talent evaluator for the NBA, but I tend to agree. Tatum seems to have the tools to become a strong two-way player that can play from 2-4 if need be. That is very valuable in the NBA right now.

[CDu]

Interesting...what in Giles college play leads you to believe this? To be frank, I was surprised he was taken as high in the draft as he was...behind Kennard. We'll see how it turns out, but I'd be more surprised by the kind of success you imply than I would if he has more of a journeyman career.

I don't mean to speak for Jeffrey, but I suspect his point is that Giles was nowhere close to 100% during his brief college career. Hence, nothing in Giles' college career is relevant to the "if" in his statement.

Giles was considered by most to be easily the #1 recruit in the country before he tore his first ACL. He bounced back to re-establish that ranking before subsequently tearing his second ACL. This past season, he was extremely rusty from missing so much time over the previous 3 years, and he was perhaps not even physically 100% on top of that. With time, he should return to form physically. And if he regains his confidence and timing, then he could very well return to being the dominant presence he was in high school.

Basically, what we saw in Giles last year was a shell of his healthy self. If he gets back to being fully healthy, then what we saw last year will be irrelevant in terms of his talent.

[JasonEvans]

We'll see how it turns out, but I'd be more surprised by the kind of success you imply than I would if he has more of a journeyman career.

I'll say this about Giles, there is a wide variation of potential outcomes for his career, but I think "journeyman" is not likely to be one of them. He is either going to rediscover the athletic freakishness that made him the best player in high school and caused many to call him the next Chris Weber or he is going to struggle the way he did at Duke and probably won't last very long in the NBA. I just don't see much of a middle ground.

-Jason "but I could be wrong, goodness knows that happens every now and then and then and then and then" Evans

[DukieInBrasil]

I'll say this about Giles, there is a wide variation of potential outcomes for his career, but I think "journeyman" is not likely to be one of them. He is either going to rediscover the athletic freakishness that made him the best player in high school and caused many to call him the next Chris Weber or he is going to struggle the way he did at Duke and probably won't last very long in the NBA. I just don't see much of a middle ground.

-Jason "but I could be wrong, goodness knows that happens every now and then and then and then and then" Evans

Shavlik Randolph played in the NBA over the course of 10 years. What i saw from Giles this year indicated a higher likelihood of an NBA career than what Shav had shown after 3 years at Duke. I would say a healthy Giles' floor is a Shav Randolph type career.

[curtis325]

Don't know if anyone has posted or commented on 538's projections. They rate Tatum and Giles as "great prospects"; Kennard and Jackson as "marginal prospects" (with Luke better than Frank).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../jayson-tatum/

[Jeffrey]

I don't mean to speak for Jeffrey, but I suspect his point is that Giles was nowhere close to 100% during his brief college career. Hence, nothing in Giles' college career is relevant to the "if" in his statement.

Giles was considered by most to be easily the #1 recruit in the country before he tore his first ACL. He bounced back to re-establish that ranking before subsequently tearing his second ACL. This past season, he was extremely rusty from missing so much time over the previous 3 years, and he was perhaps not even physically 100% on top of that. With time, he should return to form physically. And if he regains his confidence and timing, then he could very well return to being the dominant presence he was in high school.

Basically, what we saw in Giles last year was a shell of his healthy self. If he gets back to being fully healthy, then what we saw last year will be irrelevant in terms of his talent.

Thanks, CDu, I was solely addressing NBA potential. IMO, at 100%, Giles has more NBA potential than Tatum (who I really like). At 100%, Giles may have more NBA potential than any Duke player since Grant Hill.

[Olympic Fan]

Excuse me for reviving this old thread, but I was just reading in Basketball Times (not available on-line as far as I know) a fascinating breakdown of the 2017 draft. It contains some info we might want to keep in mind next April, when we're debating whether Gary Trent or Marques Bolden should go pro.

This year, there were 67 early entries -- 37 of them were drafted. That's drafted in either round, not just the first round.

that's just 55 percent.

But break it down by classes and you get a different story.

18 of 20 freshmen who came out were drafted -- 90 percent. The only two misses were Kobi Simmons of Arizona and Ted Kapita of NC State.

That's actually a pretty good performance ... but after that, it gets ugly.

Just 13 of 23 sophomores were drafted -- 56 percent. And only six of 20 juniors were drafted -- 30 percent.

The evidence (for one draft at least) suggests that the pros are more likely to opt for the kids. Some very established juniors -- Melo Trimble, Jaylen Johnson, James Blackman -- were shunned by the NBA. In the sophomore class, PJ Dozier was coming off a great year, leading his team to the Final Four, and didn't get drafted.

You can interpret that anyway you want, but it seems to me that the longer you stay in college, the less likely you are to be drafted -- even if you improve your game. There are exceptions -- Luke Kennard would not have been drafted after his freshman year, but that's unusual, not the norm.

[JasonEvans]

Excuse me for reviving this old thread, but I was just reading in Basketball Times (not available on-line as far as I know) a fascinating breakdown of the 2017 draft. It contains some info we might want to keep in mind next April, when we're debating whether Gary Trent or Marques Bolden should go pro.

This year, there were 67 early entries -- 37 of them were drafted. That's drafted in either round, not just the first round.

that's just 55 percent.

But break it down by classes and you get a different story.

18 of 20 freshmen who came out were drafted -- 90 percent. The only two misses were Kobi Simmons of Arizona and Ted Kapita of NC State.

That's actually a pretty good performance ... but after that, it gets ugly.

Just 13 of 23 sophomores were drafted -- 56 percent. And only six of 20 juniors were drafted -- 30 percent.

The evidence (for one draft at least) suggests that the pros are more likely to opt for the kids. Some very established juniors -- Melo Trimble, Jaylen Johnson, James Blackman -- were shunned by the NBA. In the sophomore class, PJ Dozier was coming off a great year, leading his team to the Final Four, and didn't get drafted.

You can interpret that anyway you want, but it seems to me that the longer you stay in college, the less likely you are to be drafted -- even if you improve your game. There are exceptions -- Luke Kennard would not have been drafted after his freshman year, but that's unusual, not the norm.

I don't have the time at the moment to look it up, but I wonder how many of the soph, Jrs, and Srs who got drafted were projected as draft picks after their freshman year. I think Luke may be more the norm than the exception.

[AZLA]

I'm a Duke fan and I love Tatum too, but come on, this is hyperbole. Comparing anyone to Durant is nuts, especially Tatum. I see very few similarities between these two. I think Tatum is going to be a solid NBA players. I don't see him being a mega superstar and one of the greatest players to ever play. But I do hope I'm wrong.

Not so hyperbolic or nuts now, huh.

Rookie of the year pal.

Yah especially Tatum.

[subzero02]

Not so hyperbolic or nuts now, huh.

Rookie of the year pal.

Yah especially Tatum.

Most years, Tatum would win ROY but this year, he will finish 3rd behind Simmons and Mitchell. These 3 outstanding rookies will be linked for the rest of their careers(along with Ball and Fultz)... just like Wade,Darko,James, Melo, and Chris Bosh.

[dukelifer]

I think I like both Brandon and Jabari better, although we'll have to see how Jabari recovers from his 2nd ACL tear. Brandon was longer and a better shooter and defender, and Jabari was a more explosive athlete. I guess you could say I'm not that high on Jayson (but then again, it's no shame to be less than Brandon and Jabari, who were overall #2 picks, if I'm right.)

I thought Ingram was going to be a force once he got some muscle. He is so unusual. I had Tatum slightly above Jabari after the ACC tourney. Kid showed me something. I am amazed by Parker. Two ACL injuries is hard to come back from for a guy his size. He has a sliver of a chance to have a decent career but sadly I think his knees fail him again. Will likely be the same for Giles. Can’t fight your anatomy.

[Troublemaker]

I thought Ingram was going to be a force once he got some muscle. He is so unusual. I had Tatum slightly above Jabari after the ACC tourney. Kid showed me something. I am amazed by Parker. Two ACL injuries is hard to come back from for a guy his size. He has a sliver of a chance to have a decent career but sadly I think his knees fail him again. Will likely be the same for Giles. Can’t fight your anatomy.

Yeah, I have to move Jayson past Brandon and Jabari (and Justise) at this point. They're all still so young* that there is still some possibility for the rankings to shuffle, but Jayson's outstanding rookie campaign makes him the leader to be Duke's best lottery wing over the next decade. RJ, Cam, and Zion will enter the rankings at some point.

Jabari is 23
Justise is 22
Brandon is 20
Jayson is 20

[AZLA]

Tatum drops 41 vs Lakers and is powers are only growing stronger

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=28767812

I’m a homer, but honestly, I feel like Tatum is quite undervalued at less than a #3 pick for his upside. The “experts” are all over the place with no real consensus to the Top 5 picks, but I’m a little surprised as to how he has (relatively speaking) flown under the radar recently, especially for a league that values height with shooting. Granted, Tatum is mostly featured in highlights driving and dunking in the lane. Case in point on the recent ESPN Sports Science special re: NBA Draft, producers, in campy fashion, covered him in chainmail armor to test his ability to dunk as a metaphor for people hanging on him. It proved nothing really or was an applicable game scenario unless an opponent was flagrantly fouling by literally draping him. Again, it was a just-for-fun episode, but I think that it speaks to how Tatum is being visualized and evaluated by the press, when in fact I see him being a potential All-Star caliber small forward in the image of Kevin Durant. He’s got the handle and versatility of say Grant Hill, but if he consistently finds his range, and can shoot well, he'll have lots of scoring opportunities in the wide-open and lax-defense NBA. So he’s going to have to work on his outside shooting to even come close, but that’s obtainable, because he's got good mechanics and showed flashes of consistency. Tatum’s body of work that foreshadows his potential was really apparent during the epic, ACC tournament run (he had the most field goals over Kennard) and into the NCAA Tourney. His shooting release point is so high, and so quick, that he’s hard to defend (even by the best defender outside). I hope he doesn’t drop down and get picked by the Suns – because they’re just “terr’ble” (as Charles would say) – when he would fit in nicely with a contending team in Boston if they trade their pick. Again, this might be a homer’s perspective, but I see Tatum as being a pick that a lot of teams wished they didn’t pass on him (picks 1 thru 4). If he goes lower than 5, yikes. Perhaps GMs are just keeping it chill so they can grab him?


Anyhow, compared to Durant in college, Tatum has a strong shot percentage but would need to up his outside shot:

Durant
College Year GP GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
Texas 2006–07 35 35 35.9 .473 .404 .816 11.1 1.3 1.9 1.9 25.8

Tatum
Year Team GP GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
2016–17 Duke 29 27 33.3 .452 .342 .849 7.3 2.1 1.3 1.1 16.8

Hope he goes early.

I'm a Duke fan and I love Tatum too, but come on, this is hyperbole. Comparing anyone to Durant is nuts, especially Tatum. I see very few similarities between these two. I think Tatum is going to be a solid NBA players. I don't see him being a mega superstar and one of the greatest players to ever play. But I do hope I'm wrong.

[JasonEvans]

In retrospect, your post from 3 years ago seems like it was written with a crystal ball in hand. Props!

Still, Tatum ain't Kevin Durant... at least not yet.

[flyingdutchdevil]

In retrospect, your post from 3 years ago seems like it was written with a crystal ball in hand. Props!

Still, Tatum ain't Kevin Durant... at least not yet.

Tatum needs to grow 2 inches and have 13 Twitter burner accounts for him to be anywhere near Durant.

[bundabergdevil]

Tatum drops 41 vs Lakers and is powers are only growing stronger

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=28767812

Whoa. That's one hell of an 'I told you so' dance.

[AZLA]

Tatum needs to grow 2 inches and have 13 Twitter burner accounts for him to be anywhere near Durant.

Yes, true. That and stay healthy and not rupture his Achilles.