I think I like both Brandon and Jabari better, although we'll have to see how Jabari recovers from his 2nd ACL tear. Brandon was longer and a better shooter and defender, and Jabari was a more explosive athlete. I guess you could say I'm not that high on Jayson (but then again, it's no shame to be less than Brandon and Jabari, who were overall #2 picks, if I'm right.)
Interesting...what in Giles college play leads you to believe this? To be frank, I was surprised he was taken as high in the draft as he was...behind Kennard. We'll see how it turns out, but I'd be more surprised by the kind of success you imply than I would if he has more of a journeyman career.
I don't mean to speak for Jeffrey, but I suspect his point is that Giles was nowhere close to 100% during his brief college career. Hence, nothing in Giles' college career is relevant to the "if" in his statement.
Giles was considered by most to be easily the #1 recruit in the country before he tore his first ACL. He bounced back to re-establish that ranking before subsequently tearing his second ACL. This past season, he was extremely rusty from missing so much time over the previous 3 years, and he was perhaps not even physically 100% on top of that. With time, he should return to form physically. And if he regains his confidence and timing, then he could very well return to being the dominant presence he was in high school.
Basically, what we saw in Giles last year was a shell of his healthy self. If he gets back to being fully healthy, then what we saw last year will be irrelevant in terms of his talent.
I'll say this about Giles, there is a wide variation of potential outcomes for his career, but I think "journeyman" is not likely to be one of them. He is either going to rediscover the athletic freakishness that made him the best player in high school and caused many to call him the next Chris Weber or he is going to struggle the way he did at Duke and probably won't last very long in the NBA. I just don't see much of a middle ground.
-Jason "but I could be wrong, goodness knows that happens every now and then and then and then and then" Evans
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Don't know if anyone has posted or commented on 538's projections. They rate Tatum and Giles as "great prospects"; Kennard and Jackson as "marginal prospects" (with Luke better than Frank).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../jayson-tatum/
Excuse me for reviving this old thread, but I was just reading in Basketball Times (not available on-line as far as I know) a fascinating breakdown of the 2017 draft. It contains some info we might want to keep in mind next April, when we're debating whether Gary Trent or Marques Bolden should go pro.
This year, there were 67 early entries -- 37 of them were drafted. That's drafted in either round, not just the first round.
that's just 55 percent.
But break it down by classes and you get a different story.
18 of 20 freshmen who came out were drafted -- 90 percent. The only two misses were Kobi Simmons of Arizona and Ted Kapita of NC State.
That's actually a pretty good performance ... but after that, it gets ugly.
Just 13 of 23 sophomores were drafted -- 56 percent. And only six of 20 juniors were drafted -- 30 percent.
The evidence (for one draft at least) suggests that the pros are more likely to opt for the kids. Some very established juniors -- Melo Trimble, Jaylen Johnson, James Blackman -- were shunned by the NBA. In the sophomore class, PJ Dozier was coming off a great year, leading his team to the Final Four, and didn't get drafted.
You can interpret that anyway you want, but it seems to me that the longer you stay in college, the less likely you are to be drafted -- even if you improve your game. There are exceptions -- Luke Kennard would not have been drafted after his freshman year, but that's unusual, not the norm.
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I thought Ingram was going to be a force once he got some muscle. He is so unusual. I had Tatum slightly above Jabari after the ACC tourney. Kid showed me something. I am amazed by Parker. Two ACL injuries is hard to come back from for a guy his size. He has a sliver of a chance to have a decent career but sadly I think his knees fail him again. Will likely be the same for Giles. Can’t fight your anatomy.
Yeah, I have to move Jayson past Brandon and Jabari (and Justise) at this point. They're all still so young* that there is still some possibility for the rankings to shuffle, but Jayson's outstanding rookie campaign makes him the leader to be Duke's best lottery wing over the next decade. RJ, Cam, and Zion will enter the rankings at some point.
Jabari is 23
Justise is 22
Brandon is 20
Jayson is 20
Tatum drops 41 vs Lakers and is powers are only growing stronger
http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=28767812
Last edited by -jk; 02-24-2020 at 07:14 AM. Reason: fix quote link
In retrospect, your post from 3 years ago seems like it was written with a crystal ball in hand. Props!
Still, Tatum ain't Kevin Durant... at least not yet.
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President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club