2017 NBA Draft Thread

[kAzE]

Woj's podcast is interesting. Basically argues that Jayson can easily be #1.

My take: #1 will be team-specific. If the Nets win, the Celtics draft Tatum. If the Lakers, Phoenix, Orlando, Philly, Sacramento, or Knicks win, it's a PG at #1.

Thanks for posting those. I don't think it's crazy at all to think that Jayson could go #1, even to some of those other teams. I think he proved without much doubt that he was the best player in the ACC tournament (despite Luke winning MVP), while Ball didn't really do the same in the Pac-12 tournament, and Fultz didn't even play, due to a sore knee. Regardless, I do think the #1 pick will be one of these 3 guys.

If we make the Final Four, it will probably be in large part because Jayson Tatum had some big games and destroyed some really good teams. Ball & Fultz could both also go #1, and justifiably so, but the difference is that 6'8" superstars are much harder to come by than 6'5" superstars.

There's probably only 10 or fewer guys 6'8" or taller in the NBA who have a better offensive game than Jayson projects to have at the next level. The NBA is all about match ups. There are a ton of point guards who can match up with Ball and Fultz, because point guard is far and away the deepest position in the league, but how many guys can really guard Jayson, once he matures?

[brlftz]

Woj's podcast is interesting. Basically argues that Jayson can easily be #1.

My take: #1 will be team-specific. If the Nets win, the Celtics draft Tatum. If the Lakers, Phoenix, Orlando, Philly, Sacramento, or Knicks win, it's a PG at #1.

Wait, has LA given up on D'Lo?

[budwom]

Ball's a good player, but LOL at his obnoxious dad wanting a billion dollar shoe deal for this three kids, two of whom have done nuthin'...Durant gets $300 million, good luck Papa Bell.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wait, has LA given up on D'Lo?

Nope. But he can shift to the 2 pretty easily. He's big enough (6'5").

[luburch]

Ball's a good player, but LOL at his obnoxious dad wanting a billion dollar shoe deal for this three kids, two of whom have done nuthin'...Durant gets $300 million, good luck Papa Bell.

He didn't ask for the deal because he wanted it. He asked for the deal so people would talk about him and his family.

[kAzE]

Wait, has LA given up on D'Lo?

They might, if he keeps doing stuff like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mot6cLNLrZw

[SCMatt33]

I wonder about the NBA's contract rules and how they may effect Gile's decision. You hear occasionally about guys 'betting on themselves' and signing 1 year deals. Can 2nd round draft picks do this? I know first round picks are tied in to 4yr deals with team options on years 3 and 4, but I seem to recall hearing about 2nd guys signing shorter deals. If that is an option, Giles might prefer being a 2nd round pick to a late first round pick so that he could get to his 2nd contract sooner and have free agency rights sooner.

(I recognize that I might be misremembering and that the 1yr guys were undrafted rather than 2nd round in which case it would not help Giles...)

Yes, 2nd round players can bet on themselves by taking short, non-guaranteed deals, however, in the last year or so, the momentum has shifted away from this because the exploding cap has allowed teams to offer a little more guaranteed money without worrying too much about cap implications if they want to cut the player. I'm unsure, however, how the new CBA that will go into effect this summer might affect that dynamic. I think in Giles case, however, he's shown enough flashes that teams won't let sit around until the 2nd round.

[COYS]

Yes, 2nd round players can bet on themselves by taking short, non-guaranteed deals, however, in the last year or so, the momentum has shifted away from this because the exploding cap has allowed teams to offer a little more guaranteed money without worrying too much about cap implications if they want to cut the player. I'm unsure, however, how the new CBA that will go into effect this summer might affect that dynamic. I think in Giles case, however, he's shown enough flashes that teams won't let sit around until the 2nd round.

Yeah, the teams picking at the end of the 1st round (San Antonio, Golden State, Cleveland, Houston, etc) are already really good and can easily afford to spend a low risk, high reward draft pick on Harry Giles. As it is, most players picked late in the first round do not become major factors in the NBA. As of 2015, there have only been 9 players who became All Stars that were selected 21-30 in the draft over the previous 20 years. 9/200. Why not go with someone who had superstar potential before his injuries? Getting a rotation player as the 28th pick in the draft is a win. If Harry's healthy, he will DEFINITELY be capable of being a rotation player in the NBA. I just can't see a GM letting him slip to the second round. Harry seems like a perfect choice for a team hoping to get the next Tony Parker, Josh Howard, or Jimmy Butler as a late-round steal.

[sammy3469]

Yes, 2nd round players can bet on themselves by taking short, non-guaranteed deals, however, in the last year or so, the momentum has shifted away from this because the exploding cap has allowed teams to offer a little more guaranteed money without worrying too much about cap implications if they want to cut the player. I'm unsure, however, how the new CBA that will go into effect this summer might affect that dynamic. I think in Giles case, however, he's shown enough flashes that teams won't let sit around until the 2nd round.

Giles will almost certainly be gone in the 15-20 range if not sooner. Some team will take the chance that he'll get back close to his previous form (I know I don't trust Chad Ford, but says he could see him in the 5-10 range). There's just too much upside there and once you get past the top 9-10-11 (depending on how you feel about Isaac, Williams, Ntilikina) the draft is pretty even.

Givony does make an interesting point in Woj's podcast though. With the rookie scale the way it is and the introduction of 2-way contracts, a whole bunch of the guys taken from 15-30 (nevermind second round picks) will end up spending even more time in the D-League. These lower first round guys will be making "only" 1-2 million a year and it's going to make more sense to send them to play there, then let them sit on the bench since the end of the bench can now be filled with two-way guys. So for these guys the decision may go from NBA with NBA salary and NBA benefits versus college to D-League with NBA salary and D-League benefits (i.e have fun getting to Sioux Falls)...i.e. this is the Frank Jackson should stay another year argument.

[Billy Dat]

Givony does make an interesting point in Woj's podcast though. With the rookie scale the way it is and the introduction of 2-way contracts, a whole bunch of the guys taken from 15-30 (nevermind second round picks) will end up spending even more time in the D-League. These lower first round guys will be making "only" 1-2 million a year and it's going to make more sense to send them to play there, then let them sit on the bench since the end of the bench can now be filled with two-way guys. So for these guys the decision may go from NBA with NBA salary and NBA benefits versus college to D-League with NBA salary and D-League benefits (i.e have fun getting to Sioux Falls)...i.e. this is the Frank Jackson should stay another year argument.

This part was really interesting. I like the point he made about kids at some programs (Duke included, as we know) fly on chartered planes and stay in 4/5 star hotels. If they wind up in the Gatorade league, that will not be their reality and many wind up saying, "Hmm, maybe it had it pretty good in college".

[SCMatt33]

Yeah, the teams picking at the end of the 1st round (San Antonio, Golden State, Cleveland, Houston, etc) are already really good and can easily afford to spend a low risk, high reward draft pick on Harry Giles. As it is, most players picked late in the first round do not become major factors in the NBA. As of 2015, there have only been 9 players who became All Stars that were selected 21-30 in the draft over the previous 20 years. 9/200. Why not go with someone who had superstar potential before his injuries? Getting a rotation player as the 28th pick in the draft is a win. If Harry's healthy, he will DEFINITELY be capable of being a rotation player in the NBA. I just can't see a GM letting him slip to the second round. Harry seems like a perfect choice for a team hoping to get the next Tony Parker, Josh Howard, or Jimmy Butler as a late-round steal.

The main reason is that most of those guys aren't even around by pick 20. I agree with Sammy3469 that Giles is gone long before the late first. If Embiid can go 3 and Noel can go 5 (I know Hinkie doesn't have a job but still...) I think that late lottery to mid 1st is likely for Giles.

[gwlaw99]

Thanks for posting those. I don't think it's crazy at all to think that Jayson could go #1, even to some of those other teams. I think he proved without much doubt that he was the best player in the ACC tournament (despite Luke winning MVP), while Ball didn't really do the same in the Pac-12 tournament, and Fultz didn't even play, due to a sore knee. Regardless, I do think the #1 pick will be one of these 3 guys.

If we make the Final Four, it will probably be in large part because Jayson Tatum had some big games and destroyed some really good teams. Ball & Fultz could both also go #1, and justifiably so, but the difference is that 6'8" superstars are much harder to come by than 6'5" superstars.

There's probably only 10 or fewer guys 6'8" or taller in the NBA who have a better offensive game than Jayson projects to have at the next level. The NBA is all about match ups. There are a ton of point guards who can match up with Ball and Fultz, because point guard is far and away the deepest position in the league, but how many guys can really guard Jayson, once he matures?

I think Jayson will have to have a hell of a tournament to go #1 even to Boston with all the hype Fultz has.

[Indoor66]

I think Jayson will have to have a hell of a tournament to go #1 even to Boston with all the hype Fultz has.

I have no idea who will go #1 but I think Pro scouts are a little more sophisticated than being heavily swayed by sports writers and SID hype.

[sammy3469]

Thanks for posting those. I don't think it's crazy at all to think that Jayson could go #1, even to some of those other teams. I think he proved without much doubt that he was the best player in the ACC tournament (despite Luke winning MVP), while Ball didn't really do the same in the Pac-12 tournament, and Fultz didn't even play, due to a sore knee. Regardless, I do think the #1 pick will be one of these 3 guys.

If we make the Final Four, it will probably be in large part because Jayson Tatum had some big games and destroyed some really good teams. Ball & Fultz could both also go #1, and justifiably so, but the difference is that 6'8" superstars are much harder to come by than 6'5" superstars.

There's probably only 10 or fewer guys 6'8" or taller in the NBA who have a better offensive game than Jayson projects to have at the next level. The NBA is all about match ups. There are a ton of point guards who can match up with Ball and Fultz, because point guard is far and away the deepest position in the league, but how many guys can really guard Jayson, once he matures?

Jayson's problem is that he's essentially doing it against college 4's (I've heard more than one NBA scout make a comparison to Winslow looking great playing the 4 for us). Now arguably his most value in the NBA would be as a potential stretch 4, but he's really being evaluated as a 3 right now with the NBA scouts seeing 2 weakness; his long range shooting and quickness in releasing off the catch. Both can be corrected (and the history of guys with his FT% doing so is good), but some do wonder how he'll do against NBA 3s.

Likewise, scouts wonder if Ball's shot translates as well. Scouts generally don't have these types of questions with Fultz which is why most think he'll be the first pick.

[CDu]

Jayson's problem is that he's essentially doing it against college 4's (I've heard more than one NBA scout make a comparison to Winslow looking great playing the 4 for us). Now arguably his most value in the NBA would be as a potential stretch 4, but he's really being evaluated as a 3 right now with the NBA scouts seeing 2 weakness; his long range shooting and quickness in releasing off the catch. Both can be corrected (and the history of guys with his FT% doing so is good), but some do wonder how he'll do against NBA 3s.

Likewise, scouts wonder if Ball's shot translates as well. Scouts generally don't have these types of questions with Fultz which is why most think he'll be the first pick.

Most college 4s would be NBA 3s. Playing the college 4 didn't hurt Luol Deng among others.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Most college 4s would be NBA 3s. Playing the college 4 didn't hurt Luol Deng among others.

You mean like Jabari, Ingram, Winslow, Tatum, Knox, etc? Play the 4 at Duke - if you can shoot - will elevate the hell out of your stock.

sammy makes an interesting point about shooting, and Jabari and (especially) Winslow have struggled, but this is Tatum's bread and butter. The dude is shooting 87% on FTs. I repeat - 87%!!!!!!!!

[kAzE]

You mean like Jabari, Ingram, Winslow, Tatum, Knox, etc? Play the 4 at Duke - if you can shoot - will elevate the hell out of your stock.

sammy makes an interesting point about shooting, and Jabari and (especially) Winslow have struggled, but this is Tatum's bread and butter. The dude is shooting 87% on FTs. I repeat - 87%!!!!!!!!

Jabari was shooting 36.5% on about 3.5 attempts per game from 3 this season prior to his latest injury. He just turned 22 today. I think he's going to be a fine shooter if he can put his injuries behind him for good.

By the way - Happy birthday, Jabari!

[bob blue devil]

Ball's a good player, but LOL at his obnoxious dad wanting a billion dollar shoe deal for this three kids, two of whom have done nuthin'...Durant gets $300 million, good luck Papa Bell.

this whole thing is really interesting. durant probably could get a lot more if he was less vanilla. lavar, not sure if it's genius or dumb luck, is really building a potentially valuable brand. granted, the brand doesn't appeal to me, but i can see the bravado and staying in the news translating into big money for him... if his kids can continue to back it up with strong play.

[kAzE]

Latest DraftExpress update (Apr 26) shows Luke rising in the rankings: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/

I wonder if there's any chance he could go in the lottery? His skills and areas of strength are very, very attractive in the current era of the NBA. Luke would be a difference maker on a number of playoff teams right now.

Also, Frank Jackson is still not in this mock draft, which I think is a sign that the DraftExpress folks also think he's only testing the waters.

[luburch]

Latest DraftExpress update (Apr 26) shows Luke rising in the rankings: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/

I wonder if there's any chance he could go in the lottery? His skills and areas of strength are very, very attractive in the current era of the NBA. Luke would be a difference maker on a number of playoff teams right now.

Also, Frank Jackson is still not in this mock draft, which I think is a sign that the DraftExpress folks also think he's only testing the waters.

Also has Harry at 27 to the Nets. Anywhere but the Nets please.