2017 NBA Draft Thread

[jimsumner]

argh! so many other ways to say that without including the possibility of bad news. anybody else says that and i'm not currently in the fetal position. but here i am. i need a diaper change.

Bolden and Muhammad Bamba may well be mutually exclusive. In other words, if Bolden comes back, Bamba likely goes elsewhere.

But Duke is strong with Knox and very strong with Duval.

Signing both of those requires either someone other than Tatum leaving for the NBA or a transfer.

The former is quite likely. I just don't see any way Harry Giles comes back next year and Allen is more likely to leave than to stay.

Kennard could go either way and Bolden and Jackson should be back.

So, I don't anticipate a scholarship crunch.

[kAzE]

Regardless of what happens with Harry and Marques, I think it will be tough for next year's team if Luke and Grayson both leave. We are almost certainly going to have at least 2 NBA caliber big men on the roster next year, so I don't see the point of stressing over it.

However, there will be a leadership void that can't really be filled by any of the returning players. If both of those guys leave, and Jayson leaves, as expected, the most established returning player will probably be Frank Jackson.

I'm a believer that upperclassmen leadership is a big deal, so losing Matt and Amile is really going to hurt. Those guys are mentors both on and off the court, and it will definitely affect the development of the younger guys if Grayson and Luke are both gone.

I think there's a 60-70% chance Luke leaves, but I (selfishly) hope he comes back. Next year's team is Luke's team if he wants it to be. (Assuming Grayson is gone, and I believe he is 100% gone.)

[wsb3]

I did this on another thread but I'll repeat here.

First, Robinson doesn't count. He's not on scholarship. And he's already redshirted once. Why would he redshirt again? And redshirts still count towards the limit.

Duke currently has 13 recruited players on scholarship.

That's the max.

Subtract Jones, Jefferson, Obi and Tatum and add fall signees Carter, Trent and O'Connell.

That leaves one available scholarship. Duke currently has actionable offers out to Duval, Knox and Muhammad.

Obviously, the staff expects more
attrition than just Tatum.

Thank you. Forgive me on Robinson. I meant back to walk on not redshirt.

[dukelifer]

Regardless of what happens with Harry and Marques, I think it will be tough for next year's team if Luke and Grayson both leave. We are almost certainly going to have at least 2 NBA caliber big men on the roster next year, so I don't see the point of stressing over it.

However, there will be a leadership void that can't really be filled by any of the returning players. If both of those guys leave, and Jayson leaves, as expected, the most established returning player will probably be Frank Jackson.

I'm a believer that upperclassmen leadership is a big deal, so losing Matt and Amile is really going to hurt. Those guys are mentors both on and off the court, and it will definitely affect the development of the younger guys if Grayson and Luke are both gone.

I think there's a 60-70% chance Luke leaves, but I (selfishly) hope he comes back. Next year's team is Luke's team if he wants it to be. (Assuming Grayson is gone, and I believe he is 100% gone.)

Hard to win a championship without upperclass players who have contributed in prior year. Almost never goes well. Unlike UK who has this model but plays is an easier conference- Duke is getting tested every night. This large exodus of experienced (and unexperienced) players could set Duke back- particularly if Duke fills its roster with other possible one and dones.

[WHOneedsSOX]

You guys all think that strongly that Allen leaves? I just don't know if I see it.

I could easily see him come back and rebuild his image and hopefully have a Buddy Hield like season where he skyrockets back into the lottery.

Tatum is obviously gone for sure. Giles will be gone. Some late lottery team will promise him they'll draft him based on his potential. I think Kennard is gone. I think Bolden will also leave which is probably a mistake but I can never fault a guy for leaving early. Jackson will be interesting. If he has a great ACC/NCAA tournament, he could leave too.

Could be a really inexperienced Duke team next season with all the regular rotation guys leaving. Also could be very loaded if Jackson, Bolden, and possibly Allen stay.

[fuse]

Fun if fruitless to speculate...things I think I think

Tatum is almost certain to leave.
Grayson, certain to leave. As much as I would love him to come
back, he is on pace to graduate in 3 years and I would not come back given the media circus this year.

Giles should stay based on limited minutes and not showing much in those minutes. Based on hype and potential, I expect he goes.

Jackson and Bolden should return.

Kennard is where it gets interesting. Not sure it is in his best interest to return pending tournament performance. Would love to see him come back to win a back to back national championship :-)

All bets are off when we win the NC as to who decides to come back.

[devildeac]

Fun if fruitless to speculate...things I think I think

Tatum is almost certain to leave.
Grayson, certain to leave. As much as I would love him to come
back, he is on pace to graduate in 3 years and I would not come back given the media circus this year.

Giles should stay based on limited minutes and not showing much in those minutes. Based on hype and potential, I expect he goes.

Jackson and Bolden should return.

Kennard is where it gets interesting. Not sure it is in his best interest to return pending tournament performance. Would love to see him come back to win a back to back national championship :-)

All bets are off when we win the NC as to who decides to come back.

I'll have a pint of what he's drinking.

[BandAlum83]

You guys all think that strongly that Allen leaves? I just don't know if I see it.

I could easily see him come back and rebuild his image and hopefully have a Buddy Hield like season where he skyrockets back into the lottery.

Tatum is obviously gone for sure. Giles will be gone. Some late lottery team will promise him they'll draft him based on his potential. I think Kennard is gone. I think Bolden will also leave which is probably a mistake but I can never fault a guy for leaving early. Jackson will be interesting. If he has a great ACC/NCAA tournament, he could leave too.

Could be a really inexperienced Duke team next season with all the regular rotation guys leaving. Also could be very loaded if Jackson, Bolden, and possibly Allen stay.

Are there rules about what the NBA teams can and cannot say before a student officially declares for the draft?

[gwlaw99]

Fun if fruitless to speculate...things I think I think

Tatum is almost certain to leave.
Grayson, certain to leave. As much as I would love him to come
back, he is on pace to graduate in 3 years and I would not come back given the media circus this year.

Giles should stay based on limited minutes and not showing much in those minutes. Based on hype and potential, I expect he goes.

Jackson and Bolden should return.

Kennard is where it gets interesting. Not sure it is in his best interest to return pending tournament performance. Would love to see him come back to win a back to back national championship :-)

All bets are off when we win the NC as to who decides to come back.

I don't see Grayson leaving. If he wanted to go early he could have when his stock was high. Now it is at an all time low. I don't see any reason for him to go.

[kAzE]

Obviously, we all want Harry and Marques to do what is best for them and their careers. I trust that they will be able to make that decision for themselves, with the help of their families, and accurate draft assessments from people who know the NBA draft.

I'm prefacing my post with that because, of all the scenarios that I can see for next year's roster, we end up with a very capable front court pretty much no matter what happens.

Scenario 1 (Worst case): Harry and Marques both go pro, Bamba goes to UK, Knox goes to UNC. We end up with Wendell Carter, Chase Jeter, Javin DeLaurier, and Antonio Vrankovic. So, in the absolute worst case/doomsday scenario, we still have one of the best front courts in the ACC. Javin and Chase are NOT bums. I still have high hopes for Chase, and I think Javin could potentially be the next Amile Jefferson.

Scenario 2: Harry and Marques both go pro, we get 1 of Knox or Bamba. Wendell at the 5 and Knox at the 4. Or Bamba and Wendell. Chase and Javin off the bench. This is the 2nd worst case scenario, and we still have one of the best front courts in the country.

Scenario 3: One of Harry and Marques stays. We have at least 2 NBA bigs, regardless of where Bamba and Knox go. I believe a 2nd year from either Harry or Marques would be VERY productive.

Scenario 4: Both Harry and Marques stay. This becomes an embarrassment of big man riches.

For me, the success of next year depends MUCH more on the draft decisions of Grayson and Luke.

[ChillinDuke]

Harry - I see no reasonable way that Harry comes back. He shouldn't. He should take the money and run. If he came back, the negatives would far outweigh the possibilities. His spectrum of outcomes would be something like: (1) continue to look mediocre [stock falls further], (2) suffer another injury, the most minor of which would still hurt his label as "injury prone" [stock falls further], (3) display nominal improvement [stock falls further], or (4) completely blow up [stock rises]. And all four of these options would come with the added negative of a year of lost salary. His situation just doesn't make sense to come back. I'm rooting for the guy as much as any of us around here. I'd love to see him succeed at Duke next year and be amazing. But I just can't reasonably argue that coming back next year makes sense for him - given the risk/reward profile.

Grayson - I think he should go. I don't think his case is quite as clear as Harry's though. If we're to believe mocks, Grayson's stock has already fallen a lot. So Grayson actually has a chance to play himself back into the first round (or even lottery) with a well-rounded senior year in which he regains his consistency, leadership, and (to the extent it's salvageable) reputation. Combine that with an expected weaker draft next year, and it makes Grayson's situation a little less clear than Harry's. There's no way of knowing how painful this season has been for him - I expect it's been quite difficult, but there's no way of knowing. Maybe the kid is just made of stone (although my gut tells me he's more emotional than that). All things considered, I think he should go. He has potential, scouts know that, NBA teams know that. I think most people know that this year was tough for him. I don't think he'll be picked in the first round at this point, but I do think there are downside risks to him returning. So, all things considered, he should probably leave.

Luke - I think he should stay. He strikes me as an outstanding college player that doesn't have a surefire NBA future. Don't confuse that with me not rooting for him or loving his game. I think he's had a terrific season and can still improve. That said, Luke's bread and butter in college (his heady midrange game along with a bevvy of penetration moves to get him there) won't exist in the NBA. At least I don't think it will. He's not going to be able to put Avery Bradley, Khris Middleton, or Rodney Hood into a blender on a regular basis and then get a shot up and and around Towns, Whiteside, or Steven Adams who commits helpside if necessary. It's just not gonna happen. I'd utterly love to be proven wrong, trust me. So, if I end up being right, and Luke is going to be solely a three-point specialist in the NBA, I think he needs to stay and get stronger and work on his defense. He's one guy that seems low-risk to falling way down the draft next year. I think he's the exact type of player that should go higher next year than this year given all the considerations. He's different than Grayson despite people wanting to point to Grayson's season as a cautionary tale to returning. I find Luke to be in a considerably different situation than Grayson was last year. So all things considered, I'd advise him to stay.

Frank - I think he should stay. I think he's trended up toward the end of this year, but I think he's another guy that could legitimately go mid-lottery next year if he stays. He has a huge ceiling and the freshman-sophomore jump looms large for him.

Marques - Gotta stay. You can't teach his size and wingspan. I think he's surefire NBA material no matter when he leaves. Someone will draft that body. So why leave now when he can significantly benefit another year (or more).

So all things considered, I'd expect Amile and Matt, Sean, Jayson, Harry, and Grayson to leave for the NBA after this season. I think Luke, Frank, and Marques return. Odds, anyone?

- Chillin

[WHOneedsSOX]

Are there rules about what the NBA teams can and cannot say before a student officially declares for the draft?

I don't think so as long as his name is in the draft. Happens every year in the evaluation process. Teams every year promise a player that if he falls to them that they will draft him.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Obviously, we all want Harry and Marques to do what is best for them and their careers. I trust that they will be able to make that decision for themselves, with the help of their families, and accurate draft assessments from people who know the NBA draft.

I'm prefacing my post with that because, of all the scenarios that I can see for next year's roster, we end up with a very capable front court pretty much no matter what happens.

Scenario 1 (Worst case): Harry and Marques both go pro, Bamba goes to UK, Knox goes to UNC. We end up with Wendell Carter, Chase Jeter, Javin DeLaurier, and Antonio Vrankovic. So, in the absolute worst case/doomsday scenario, we still have one of the best front courts in the ACC. Javin and Chase are NOT bums. I still have high hopes for Chase, and I think Javin could potentially be the next Amile Jefferson.

Scenario 2: Harry and Marques both go pro, we get 1 of Knox or Bamba. Wendell at the 5 and Knox at the 4. Or Bamba and Wendell. Chase and Javin off the bench. This is the 2nd worst case scenario, and we still have one of the best front courts in the country.

Scenario 3: One of Harry and Marques stays. We have at least 2 NBA bigs, regardless of where Bamba and Knox go. I believe a 2nd year from either Harry or Marques would be VERY productive.

Scenario 4: Both Harry and Marques stay. This becomes an embarrassment of big man riches.

For me, the success of next year depends MUCH more on the draft decisions of Grayson and Luke.

Like this year! But it turns out you can't teach Coach K how to use a long bench.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Harry - I see no reasonable way that Harry comes back. He shouldn't. He should take the money and run. If he came back, the negatives would far outweigh the possibilities. His spectrum of outcomes would be something like: (1) continue to look mediocre [stock falls further], (2) suffer another injury, the most minor of which would still hurt his label as "injury prone" [stock falls further], (3) display nominal improvement [stock falls further], or (4) completely blow up [stock rises]. And all four of these options would come with the added negative of a year of lost salary. His situation just doesn't make sense to come back. I'm rooting for the guy as much as any of us around here. I'd love to see him succeed at Duke next year and be amazing. But I just can't reasonably argue that coming back next year makes sense for him - given the risk/reward profile.

Grayson - I think he should go. I don't think his case is quite as clear as Harry's though. If we're to believe mocks, Grayson's stock has already fallen a lot. So Grayson actually has a chance to play himself back into the first round (or even lottery) with a well-rounded senior year in which he regains his consistency, leadership, and (to the extent it's salvageable) reputation. Combine that with an expected weaker draft next year, and it makes Grayson's situation a little less clear than Harry's. There's no way of knowing how painful this season has been for him - I expect it's been quite difficult, but there's no way of knowing. Maybe the kid is just made of stone (although my gut tells me he's more emotional than that). All things considered, I think he should go. He has potential, scouts know that, NBA teams know that. I think most people know that this year was tough for him. I don't think he'll be picked in the first round at this point, but I do think there are downside risks to him returning. So, all things considered, he should probably leave.

Luke - I think he should stay. He strikes me as an outstanding college player that doesn't have a surefire NBA future. Don't confuse that with me not rooting for him or loving his game. I think he's had a terrific season and can still improve. That said, Luke's bread and butter in college (his heady midrange game along with a bevvy of penetration moves to get him there) won't exist in the NBA. At least I don't think it will. He's not going to be able to put Avery Bradley, Khris Middleton, or Rodney Hood into a blender on a regular basis and then get a shot up and and around Towns, Whiteside, or Steven Adams who commits helpside if necessary. It's just not gonna happen. I'd utterly love to be proven wrong, trust me. So, if I end up being right, and Luke is going to be solely a three-point specialist in the NBA, I think he needs to stay and get stronger and work on his defense. He's one guy that seems low-risk to falling way down the draft next year. I think he's the exact type of player that should go higher next year than this year given all the considerations. He's different than Grayson despite people wanting to point to Grayson's season as a cautionary tale to returning. I find Luke to be in a considerably different situation than Grayson was last year. So all things considered, I'd advise him to stay.

Frank - I think he should stay. I think he's trended up toward the end of this year, but I think he's another guy that could legitimately go mid-lottery next year if he stays. He has a huge ceiling and the freshman-sophomore jump looms large for him.

Marques - Gotta stay. You can't teach his size and wingspan. I think he's surefire NBA material no matter when he leaves. Someone will draft that body. So why leave now when he can significantly benefit another year (or more).

So all things considered, I'd expect Amile and Matt, Sean, Jayson, Harry, and Grayson to leave for the NBA after this season. I think Luke, Frank, and Marques return. Odds, anyone?

- Chillin

No odds, but I'll bet against you. Let's take Sean out of this, because he's not going to play at Duke next year regardless of if he stays or goes. Sad reality.

I say Jayson, Harry, Grayson, Luke, and Marques all bolt. 7 players (including Amile and Matt) gone. 8 if you include Obi.

[kAzE]

Luke - I think he should stay. He strikes me as an outstanding college player that doesn't have a surefire NBA future. Don't confuse that with me not rooting for him or loving his game. I think he's had a terrific season and can still improve. That said, Luke's bread and butter in college (his heady midrange game along with a bevvy of penetration moves to get him there) won't exist in the NBA. At least I don't think it will. He's not going to be able to put Avery Bradley, Khris Middleton, or Rodney Hood into a blender on a regular basis and then get a shot up and and around Towns, Whiteside, or Steven Adams who commits helpside if necessary. It's just not gonna happen. I'd utterly love to be proven wrong, trust me. So, if I end up being right, and Luke is going to be solely a three-point specialist in the NBA, I think he needs to stay and get stronger and work on his defense. He's one guy that seems low-risk to falling way down the draft next year. I think he's the exact type of player that should go higher next year than this year given all the considerations. He's different than Grayson despite people wanting to point to Grayson's season as a cautionary tale to returning. I find Luke to be in a considerably different situation than Grayson was last year. So all things considered, I'd advise him to stay.

These are all the same arguments people made against Steph Curry when he came out. The fact is, guys who are gifted and savvy shooters/scorers can make it in the NBA. Defense is great to have, but good defenders are much easier to find than guys who have the scoring ability of Luke Kennard.

We probably disagree on this, but I actually do think he can become good enough offensively to be the #1 or #2 option at times in an NBA offense, especially off the bench. The only thing that really matters is if his offensive contributions can outweigh whatever he gives up on the other end. Guys like Isaiah Thomas and Steph Curry are pretty big liabilities on defense, but they more than make up for it with the scoring and floor spacing they provide on offense.

He's also not undersized at all. He's legitimately between 6'5" and 6'6", and would at least be able to shoot comfortably over most NBA guards.

Now to be clear, Luke is not on Steph Curry's level of ability at the time he as drafted, but you'd be hard pressed to find 5 guys who have a more complete offensive game in this draft than Luke Kennard. He's that good.

[duke74]

NY Daily News today. Tatum good for Knicks.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...Sports+Twitter

[Billy Dat]

Good NCAA tournament-themed podcast focused on potential NBA draftees in the field with Adrian Wojnarowski and Draft Express' Jonathan Givony
https://art19.com/shows/vertical/epi...6-2a7f97c07a33

They discuss a lot of reasons why guys should consider going back to school, not just "they aren't good enough" reasons but also the lifestyle in the Gatorade League (new name for D-League), how pro programs can form opinions during the evaluation process that are hard to change, etc.

Good article on NBA prospects in the tournament
https://theringer.com/march-madness-...3ec#.yv42aqxl7

Both pieces feature lots of Duke talk

[chriso]

Hard to win a championship without upperclass players who have contributed in prior year. Almost never goes well. Unlike UK who has this model but plays is an easier conference- Duke is getting tested every night. This large exodus of experienced (and unexperienced) players could set Duke back- particularly if Duke fills its roster with other possible one and dones.

Yes it seems we'll be young next year as my heart tells me Grayson and Luke will go. Really hope I'm wrong. But Bolden and Jackson and Jeter are a nice core and if we get Knox and esp. Duvall we'll be rolling again. Young for sure. But I agree that getting Grayson or Luke back makes us a title contender. Without it we could be but a lot of youth would have to step up. But the future looks bright!

[niveklaen]

I wonder about the NBA's contract rules and how they may effect Gile's decision. You hear occasionally about guys 'betting on themselves' and signing 1 year deals. Can 2nd round draft picks do this? I know first round picks are tied in to 4yr deals with team options on years 3 and 4, but I seem to recall hearing about 2nd guys signing shorter deals. If that is an option, Giles might prefer being a 2nd round pick to a late first round pick so that he could get to his 2nd contract sooner and have free agency rights sooner.

(I recognize that I might be misremembering and that the 1yr guys were undrafted rather than 2nd round in which case it would not help Giles...)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Good NCAA tournament-themed podcast focused on potential NBA draftees in the field with Adrian Wojnarowski and Draft Express' Jonathan Givony
https://art19.com/shows/vertical/epi...6-2a7f97c07a33

They discuss a lot of reasons why guys should consider going back to school, not just "they aren't good enough" reasons but also the lifestyle in the Gatorade League (new name for D-League), how pro programs can form opinions during the evaluation process that are hard to change, etc.

Good article on NBA prospects in the tournament
https://theringer.com/march-madness-...3ec#.yv42aqxl7

Both pieces feature lots of Duke talk

Woj's podcast is interesting. Basically argues that Jayson can easily be #1.

My take: #1 will be team-specific. If the Nets win, the Celtics draft Tatum. If the Lakers, Phoenix, Orlando, Philly, Sacramento, or Knicks win, it's a PG at #1.