NBA ready discussion...

[MarkD83]

The other threads about players declaring for the draft have drifted to NIL discussions and other topics. Since it is the off-season I wanted to expand on some points people have made about "being ready" for the NBA.

First, we on this board do very little research about what NBA GMs are looking for or need. These GMs have scouts and analytic experts constantly evaluating players. They also know better than we do what their teams need.

So in the spirit of doing very little research let's consider that being NBA ready/draftable is NOT an evaluation of the skill sets of any individual player but an evaluation of whether the player being drafted is better than someone else on a current NBA roster that they could replace.

With that in mind, I went ahead and looked at the list of players who played in the NBA this year...there were 605 players who played at least 1 minute, 396 that played at least 400 minutes. That is about 5 minutes per game and probably means you are in a solid position to stay on an NBA team all year.

https://www.basketball-reference.com...tals_stats::mp

Just to double check this there are 30 teams so 396/30 = 13.2 with a roster size of 15 so this makes sense.

The 60 drafted players this year only have to be better than the players between 337 and 396 to be comfortably on a roster.

So who are the 60 players that a newly drafted player has to be better than...

NBA min played.jpg

Some names are familiar but older...some are unfamiliar, but this is the competition newly drafted players would be competing against.

[MCFinARL]

Interesting idea. There are some pretty familiar names on that list. Do we know how injuries played into these minute totals? Could make a difference if there is a reasonable expectation that the player(s) would be healthier next year.

[Matches]

I always find the discussion of readiness to miss the point. Of course very few 19-20 year olds are physically or emotionally mature enough to succeed in a league full of grown men. The ones who are are the exceptions.

Folks seem to treat players like dishes in an oven, with Duke as the oven. Take the dish out too soon and it’s ruined - but the metaphor doesn’t hold. Player development doesn’t end in the NBA, and in many cases playing and practicing against the world’s best benefits rather than hinders development.

[HayYou]

I always find the discussion of readiness to miss the point. Of course very few 19-20 year olds are physically or emotionally mature enough to succeed in a league full of grown men. The ones who are are the exceptions.

Folks seem to treat players like dishes in an oven, with Duke as the oven. Take the dish out too soon and it’s ruined - but the metaphor doesn’t hold. Player development doesn’t end in the NBA, and in many cases playing and practicing against the world’s best benefits rather than hinders development.

Did K and the staff fail to develop Tatum or Ingram or Rivers or etc. Becuase most of those guys are way better now than when they left Duke.

I'm sure it would be easy to produce a list of guys who left early and busted out. But those guys were never going to make it for various reasons. Should they have stayed in college? Maybe. But they wanted to get paid, so it is what it is.

[kako]

The 60 drafted players this year only have to be better than the players between 337 and 396 to be comfortably on a roster.

So who are the 60 players that a newly drafted player has to be better than...

NBA min played.jpg

Some names are familiar but older...some are unfamiliar, but this is the competition newly drafted players would be competing against.

I think you have an interesting data point, but minutes are not an absolute one. There are several other factors, including who is retiring, who is going overseas to make more $, injuries, contracts in place (and therefore, the player will sit on the bench regardless), etc. that may take out the minutes factor.

9F

[MarkD83]

I think you have an interesting data point, but minutes are not an absolute one. There are several other factors, including who is retiring, who is going overseas to make more $, injuries, contracts in place (and therefore, the player will sit on the bench regardless), etc. that may take out the minutes factor.

9F

Agreed...minutes played was just an easy metric to get to a list of the 60 players most likely to be supplanted by the incoming crop of drafted players.

[MarkD83]

Did K and the staff fail to develop Tatum or Ingram or Rivers or etc. Becuase most of those guys are way better now than when they left Duke.

I'm sure it would be easy to produce a list of guys who left early and busted out. But those guys were never going to make it for various reasons. Should they have stayed in college? Maybe. But they wanted to get paid, so it is what it is.

These statements are certainly the crux of the matter. In any profession to succeed you need to continue to get better during your career.

If one is going to get better during their career, how much experience does one need before starting a career.

If I am tradesman do I need to do an apprenticeship before starting my own business.
If I am an MD do I need to do a residency in multiple disciplines before joining a practice.

There is no correct path, just the best path for the person making the decision.

[kako]

Agreed...minutes played was just an easy metric to get to a list of the 60 players most likely to be supplanted by the incoming crop of drafted players.

It would be work, but it would be interesting to see which players on your list are not on an opening night roster next year.

9F