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  1. #1
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    2017 NBA Draft Thread

    I know what you're thinking: "kAzE, this is way too early to start talking about the draft!! "

    But the fact is, draft talk has already permeated several threads, and we do need a thread to consolidate those thoughts.

    I'm particularly intrigued by DraftExpress's (IMO the most accurate public source on the internet for NBA draft player evaluations) new rankings, updated just today: http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/

    Some notable things I saw upon first review:

    - Jayson is now up to #4, moving ahead of Dennis Smith. I believe he can only continue to rise, although all 3 of the guys ahead of him right now are totally deserving of their rankings.

    - Justin Jackson moved WAY up, from the back end of the 1st round, into the late lottery. WOW. Did not expect that one. I hate to admit it, but he has really improved this year. Who knew? Adding a jump shot to his game made him a potential lottery pick.

    - Luke Kennard shot up from the last pick of the first round to the early 20s . . . it's starting to feel like he may be gone after this year

    - Harry Giles dropped way down (#19 to now #28), and might be danger of falling out of the first round.

    - Grayson's stock continues to drop, he's at #44 now.

    - Semi Ojeleye is gaining some traction as an NBA prospect. He's currently #42 on DE's rankings.

    - Marques Bolden is #51

    - Frank Jackson is #66

    Edit: It's probably worth noting that these rankings are a snapshot in time, as of today. They can, and WILL change significantly depending on what happens in the NCAA postseason, and events leading up to the draft.
    Last edited by kAzE; 03-06-2017 at 03:46 PM.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    I know what you're thinking: "kAzE, this is way too early to start talking about the draft!! "

    But the fact is, draft talk has already permeated several threads, and we do need a thread to consolidate those thoughts.

    I'm particularly intrigued by DraftExpress's (IMO the most accurate public source on the internet for NBA draft player evaluations) new rankings, updated just today: http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/

    Some notable things I saw upon first review:

    - Jayson is now up to #4, moving ahead of Dennis Smith. I believe he can only continue to rise, although all 3 of the guys ahead of him right now are totally deserving of their rankings.

    - Justin Jackson moved WAY up, from the back end of the 1st round, into the late lottery. WOW. Did not expect that one. I hate to admit it, but he has really improved this year. Who knew? Adding a jump shot to his game made him a potential lottery pick.

    - Luke Kennard shot up from the last pick of the first round to the early 20s . . . it's starting to feel like he may be gone after this year

    - Harry Giles dropped way down (#19 to now #28), and might be danger of falling out of the first round.

    - Grayson's stock continues to drop, he's at #44 now.

    - Semi Ojeleye is gaining some traction as an NBA prospect. He's currently #42 on DE's rankings.

    - Marques Bolden is #51

    - Frank Jackson is #66
    And, just fyi - their rankings are not exactly the same as their mock draft positions. In the 2017 mock, draftexpress has Luke at #20, Harry at #25 and Grayson at #39. Bolden and Frank are not projected to be coming out this year.
    "I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K

  3. #3
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    I wonder if Giles has dropped enough to make it worth sticking around another year. I know that there is the risk of re-injury but if he drops to the second round he risks not getting a guaranteed contract at all and having to play in the D league for a year or two. There he would still risk re-injury plus he would not be on TV every week building name recognition. He would also be playing in more games with increased travel which I would think only make re-injury more of a possibility. If he comes back, he can still get insurance, he will play in fewer but higher profile games and have access to the better coaching and training. I would still think that a team would take a flier on him late in the first round based on potential but he certainly doesn't look like a lock to be a lottery pick right now.

    Allen is also in difficult situation. You know he had to expect to have had the kind of season that Kennard has had and hoped to be at least a late teen early 20's pick. He is scheduled to graduate this spring so does he declare now and try to prove himself in the D league like Curry and Cook or does he come back and hope to be healthy all year and maybe get another ring.

    I would think that Kennard will look at Allen's season this year and declare.

    Bolden is probably in a position where he has to come back, right? Transferring would only delay the draft another year and not getting drafted as a freshman is not likely a wise strategy.

    I'm a little shocked that Jackson is so low. His play the past week or so has been fantastic. I wonder if the low number is based more on an expectation he won't declare than how scouts really view him?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by yancem View Post
    I'm a little shocked that Jackson is so low. His play the past week or so has been fantastic. I wonder if the low number is based more on an expectation he won't declare than how scouts really view him?
    I'll speculate that it's because he hasn't shown that he has the ability to run an offense as a true point guard, coupled with the fact that he's small for an NBA 2 guard. But I would fully expect him to vault into the first round if he comes back and plays at or above the level he's been playing at recently.

  5. #5
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    Indianapolis, IN.
    As much as I want Luke to come back, it's hard to campaign for him to after the season Grayson had. No, Luke would not have to deal with the firestorm Grayson has gone through, but it's hard to imagine his stock being much higher. Same with Grayson last year. Luke's been healthy all year and that is never a guarantee. Again, just look at Grayson.

    Honestly, I think it's easier to make a case for Giles to return than Luke.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    I'll speculate that it's because he hasn't shown that he has the ability to run an offense as a true point guard, coupled with the fact that he's small for an NBA 2 guard. But I would fully expect him to vault into the first round if he comes back and plays at or above the level he's been playing at recently.
    I think the proliferation of small ball means that Grayson isn't undersized for a 2. He's 6'5" and a sample of the best 2 guards in the league puts him right in the correct range. JJ is only 6'4", as is CJ McCollum, Brad Beal is 6'5", D.Wade is 6'4"..and that's just naming some of the really good ones. Sure, guys like Klay and Jimmy Butler are 6'7" but I think 6'5" is fine for a 2.

    Sadly, I think Grayson needs to leave. He's damaged goods from a brand perspective in college and I would not wish on him the booing and scrutiny that he's faced this year. He's been banged up all year but the NBA guys aren't stupid, they'll recognize him as an undervalued asset and he'll be on an opening night roster this October.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I think the proliferation of small ball means that Grayson isn't undersized for a 2. He's 6'5" and a sample of the best 2 guards in the league puts him right in the correct range. JJ is only 6'4", as is CJ McCollum, Brad Beal is 6'5", D.Wade is 6'4"..and that's just naming some of the really good ones. Sure, guys like Klay and Jimmy Butler are 6'7" but I think 6'5" is fine for a 2.

    Sadly, I think Grayson needs to leave. He's damaged goods from a brand perspective in college and I would not wish on him the booing and scrutiny that he's faced this year. He's been banged up all year but the NBA guys aren't stupid, they'll recognize him as an undervalued asset and he'll be on an opening night roster this October.
    My post was actually about Frank Jackson, but I do agree on all of your analysis of Grayson (although I think he's closer to 6'3" than 6'5"). I believe he will boost his draft stock both in the NCAA tournament, as well as in personal workouts with teams prior to the draft. He really is a spectacular athlete, and it will help him on draft day.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    My post was actually about Frank Jackson, but I do agree on all of your analysis of Grayson (although I think he's closer to 6'3" than 6'5"). I believe he will boost his draft stock both in the NCAA tournament, as well as in personal workouts with teams prior to the draft. He really is a spectacular athlete, and it will help him on draft day.
    Duh, my bad. Frank is certainly undersized for an NBA 2. It seems like the NBA is really starting to look at PGs as two types...lead guards and scoring guards with the former being the Chris Paul floor general and the later being Kyrie/Westbrook. I think Frank is likely that scoring guard variety...he could use some work on his handles and consistency on that 3.

    As for everyone else, I am pretty pessimistic about returnees. In general, these kids all want to play pro ball. Grayson's return last year was so against the grain. At some point a few weeks ago, I actually figured on us losing Amile and Matt to graduation and then Grayson, Luke, Harry, Jayson AND Marques.

    The Marques/Jeter status is a real mystery. What will happen with those two dudes?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    Duh, my bad. Frank is certainly undersized for an NBA 2. It seems like the NBA is really starting to look at PGs as two types...lead guards and scoring guards with the former being the Chris Paul floor general and the later being Kyrie/Westbrook. I think Frank is likely that scoring guard variety...he could use some work on his handles and consistency on that 3.

    As for everyone else, I am pretty pessimistic about returnees. In general, these kids all want to play pro ball. Grayson's return last year was so against the grain. At some point a few weeks ago, I actually figured on us losing Amile and Matt to graduation and then Grayson, Luke, Harry, Jayson AND Marques.

    The Marques/Jeter status is a real mystery. What will happen with those two dudes?
    Yeah. That's my biggest question. I've crossed off Tatum (duh), Giles (injury risk), Luke (don't wanna pull a Grayson and destroy stock value), and Grayson (no one in his shoes wants to endure another year of hell).

    Bolden is such a question mark. I could easily see him pull a Daniel Orton or come back. Neither option would surprise me. And Jeter? I think it depends on what Bolden does.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  10. #10
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I think the proliferation of small ball means that Grayson isn't undersized for a 2. He's 6'5" and a sample of the best 2 guards in the league puts him right in the correct range. JJ is only 6'4", as is CJ McCollum, Brad Beal is 6'5", D.Wade is 6'4"..and that's just naming some of the really good ones. Sure, guys like Klay and Jimmy Butler are 6'7" but I think 6'5" is fine for a 2.

    Sadly, I think Grayson needs to leave. He's damaged goods from a brand perspective in college and I would not wish on him the booing and scrutiny that he's faced this year. He's been banged up all year but the NBA guys aren't stupid, they'll recognize him as an undervalued asset and he'll be on an opening night roster this October.
    I disagree with the first part of the highlighted sentence but agree with the second half. I think Grayson's "brand... in college" is a meaningless concept, and the over-reaction to his wrongdoing will balance off on next year's reputation; moreover, if he makes an NBA roster, he will sell a lot to jerseys. I doubt that Grayson, who is near graduation, sees much benefit to coming back, giving the unpleasant experience of this season.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  11. #11
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    Help

    Trying to crunch the numbers here...(math makes my head hurt) Let's say just for the heck of it...that only Jayson left early..(I know..but humor me) Matt, Amile, Sean graduate.. Robinson back to redshirt.. That still leaves us with an open scholarship for Knox???

    Also Justin Jackson really did make a leap...I was kind of surprised he was not moving up more earlier.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    The Marques/Jeter status is a real mystery. What will happen with those two dudes?
    I don't mean this in a negative way at all, but I've always had the sense that Marques came into this season fully expecting to be a one-and-done. (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...ucky-wildcats: "My goal is not only to be drafted in the NBA but to play in the NBA," Bolden said. "I feel Duke will best help me reach my goal.") Sitting out the beginning of the season with Harry and Jayson (i.e., two sure-fire one-and-dones) and hearing the media group the three of them together probably added to that expectation.

    I imagine that for guys who have a deep one-and-done expectation starting in high school, the idea of coming back for sophomore year is extremely unpalatable, no matter how much they love Duke/college. For most, if not all, of these high-level basketball players, the ultimate dream is BY FAR to play in the NBA, and they don't want to wait a second longer than necessary to make the leap.

    Marques really is a mystery. It's possible that he ends up like the Harrison twins, who had absolutely no choice but to return for their sophomore years. I could see him entering his name in the draft, getting real feedback telling him that he should return to school, having a heart-to-heart with Coach K that motivates him to tear it up as a sophomore, breaking somewhat out of his introverted shell and playing great next year for Duke.

    Or, that unpalatability of waiting another year to realize his NBA dream might drive him to stay in the draft and gamble on himself. Who knows, maybe a team will draft him on potential and he'll quickly develop into a productive NBA big man. If he does decide to leave this year, I hope his decision is based on wisdom and not impatience.

    As for Chase, I assume your question doesn't have to do with whether he'll declare for the draft (I'm not going to use the "t" word). I think Chase is capable of playing at the high-major level, unlike someone like, perhaps, Alex Murphy or Olek Czyz. I hope he'll stick it out. I get the impression that he truly loves Duke, which I honestly don't feel is true about every player who's come through the program.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by wk2109 View Post
    I don't mean this in a negative way at all, but I've always had the sense that Marques came into this season fully expecting to be a one-and-done. (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...ucky-wildcats: "My goal is not only to be drafted in the NBA but to play in the NBA," Bolden said. "I feel Duke will best help me reach my goal.") Sitting out the beginning of the season with Harry and Jayson (i.e., two sure-fire one-and-dones) and hearing the media group the three of them together probably added to that expectation.

    I imagine that for guys who have a deep one-and-done expectation starting in high school, the idea of coming back for sophomore year is extremely unpalatable, no matter how much they love Duke/college. For most, if not all, of these high-level basketball players, the ultimate dream is BY FAR to play in the NBA, and they don't want to wait a second longer than necessary to make the leap.

    Marques really is a mystery. It's possible that he ends up like the Harrison twins, who had absolutely no choice but to return for their sophomore years. I could see him entering his name in the draft, getting real feedback telling him that he should return to school, having a heart-to-heart with Coach K that motivates him to tear it up as a sophomore, breaking somewhat out of his introverted shell and playing great next year for Duke.

    Or, that unpalatability of waiting another year to realize his NBA dream might drive him to stay in the draft and gamble on himself. Who knows, maybe a team will draft him on potential and he'll quickly develop into a productive NBA big man. If he does decide to leave this year, I hope his decision is based on wisdom and not impatience.

    As for Chase, I assume your question doesn't have to do with whether he'll declare for the draft (I'm not going to use the "t" word). I think Chase is capable of playing at the high-major level, unlike someone like, perhaps, Alex Murphy or Olek Czyz. I hope he'll stick it out. I get the impression that he truly loves Duke, which I honestly don't feel is true about every player who's come through the program.
    Bolden needs to work on his game. Not all freshman are ready to make the jump. Right now he is a second round player at best. He can work on his game in the D league if he does not want to be in school, but he needs to work on his game.
    dukelifer

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Yeah. That's my biggest question. I've crossed off Tatum (duh), Giles (injury risk), Luke (don't wanna pull a Grayson and destroy stock value), and Grayson (no one in his shoes wants to endure another year of hell).

    Bolden is such a question mark. I could easily see him pull a Daniel Orton or come back. Neither option would surprise me. And Jeter? I think it depends on what Bolden does.
    Luke will be an interesting case. He will have to work on his D as JJ did- but he can score in lots of ways. Luke will definitely test the waters.
    dukelifer

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I disagree with the first part of the highlighted sentence but agree with the second half. I think Grayson's "brand... in college" is a meaningless concept, and the over-reaction to his wrongdoing will balance off on next year's reputation; moreover, if he makes an NBA roster, he will sell a lot to jerseys. I doubt that Grayson, who is near graduation, sees much benefit to coming back, giving the unpleasant experience of this season.
    I meant that I don't think he can change the perception that people in college have of him, no matter what he does. I don't think it will be as big a deal in the NBA. In this way, he's a bit like JJ, although he is not the college player JJ was. JJ had to deal with "you aint all that" talk until he made himself (with Stan Van's help) into the NBA player he is today. As long as Grayson can make a team, I think that will happen for him, too. Just as JJ toned down his cocky behavior, Grayson will have to avoid major dirty play while still retaining his fierce edge - not an easy balance.

  16. #16
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    Great Duke specific draft discussion in the second half of this pod.

    https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/...=1000382297660

    The first half, which reviews the season and looks ahead to the ACC and NCAA tournaments is also a good listen.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by wsb3 View Post
    Trying to crunch the numbers here...(math makes my head hurt) Let's say just for the heck of it...that only Jayson left early..(I know..but humor me) Matt, Amile, Sean graduate.. Robinson back to redshirt.. That still leaves us with an open scholarship for Knox???

    Also Justin Jackson really did make a leap...I was kind of surprised he was not moving up more earlier.
    I did this on another thread but I'll repeat here.

    First, Robinson doesn't count. He's not on scholarship. And he's already redshirted once. Why would he redshirt again? And redshirts still count towards the limit.

    Duke currently has 13 recruited players on scholarship.

    That's the max.

    Subtract Jones, Jefferson, Obi and Tatum and add fall signees Carter, Trent and O'Connell.

    That leaves one available scholarship. Duke currently has actionable offers out to Duval, Knox and Muhammad.

    Obviously, the staff expects more attrition than just Tatum.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I did this on another thread but I'll repeat here.

    First, Robinson doesn't count. He's not on scholarship. And he's already redshirted once. Why would he redshirt again? And redshirts still count towards the limit.

    Duke currently has 13 recruited players on scholarship.

    That's the max.

    Subtract Jones, Jefferson, Obi and Tatum and add fall signees Carter, Trent and O'Connell.

    That leaves one available scholarship. Duke currently has actionable offers out to Duval, Knox and Muhammad.

    Obviously, the staff expects more attrition than just Tatum.
    Pardon my ignorance, but what is an 'actionable' offer? Are there other types of offers?

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    Pardon my ignorance, but what is an 'actionable' offer? Are there other types of offers?
    Some offers are conditional. i.e. "we have one scholarship open and two offers out. First one to commit gets that scholarship and the offer will be withdrawn to the remaining target."

    And schools do tell prospects that they are option number two for a spot and please wait until option number one decides.

    Some wait. Some don't.

    I'm reasonably certain that all of Duval, Knox and Muhammad have been told that a scholarship to Duke will be available should they decide to attend Duke.

    Meaning Duke expects to lose at least two players in addition to Tatum.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Obviously, the staff expects more attrition than just Tatum.
    argh! so many other ways to say that without including the possibility of bad news. anybody else says that and i'm not currently in the fetal position. but here i am. i need a diaper change.

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