This Week in the ACC: 2/20-2/26

[pfrduke]

Two weeks left to play and five teams have to feel like they have a reasonable shot at the regular season crown (with apologies to Virginia and Miami, I don't think there's any reasonable way that UNC loses 3 times and both Duke and Louisville lose twice down the stretch - the six-loss teams are out of contention). Carolina obviously has the inside edge, but their schedule down the stretch is not easy - Louisville, @UVA, @Pitt, Duke. Duke has to play 3 of the last 4 on the road (and the one home game is against FSU). Louisville's biggest test comes this week in Chapel Hill, although @Wake and home for ND are no cake walks either. FSU and Notre Dame need to get hot and hope for some carnage above them - between the two, the Irish have a much better shot at getting to 13-5, with home games against GT and BC before finishing the season out at Louisville.

Looking further down the standings at the bubble, BC and NCSU are done. Pitt's hope for an at large bid is vanishingly small - if they somehow go 4-0 @Wake, home vs. UNC, @GT, and @UVA, I think they'd have a reasonable case, but I wouldn't bet any amount of money against really any odds that they could pull that off. Clemson has a better shot at finishing 4-0, with 3 home games to close out the season after a trip to Blacksburg, but there's not really a marquee win down the final stretch - they might still have work to do in the ACCT even if they get to 8-10. Wake needs to go 3-0 to get to 9-9, and would pick up a big win against Louisville if they did so. Their case at 8-10 would be better if they beat Louisville and lose to Virginia Tech than vice versa, but I think they'd still be in the work to do camp either way. For the rest of the conference, currently at .500 or better, getting to 9-9 would have them feeling pretty comfortable, although still not certain.

Monday
[8]Virginia (8-6) hosts [34]Miami (8-6) (7:00, ESPN)
[19]Florida State (9-5) hosts [146]Boston College (2-12) (7:00, ESPNU)

Tuesday
[46]Virginia Tech (7-7) hosts [38]Clemson (4-10) (7:00, ESPNU)
[76]Georgia Tech (7-7) hosts [104]NC State (3-12) (8:00, ACCN)

Wednesday
[48]Syracuse (8-7) hosts [12]Duke (10-4) (7:00, ESPN)
[30]Wake Forest (6-9) hosts [64]Pittsburgh (4-10) (7:00, ACCN)
[6]North Carolina (11-3) hosts [4]Louisville (10-4) (9:00, ESPN)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[104]NC State (3-12) hosts [8]Virginia (8-6) (12:00, ESPN)
[38]Clemson (4-10) hosts [19]Florida State (9-5) (12:00, ACCN)
[64]Pittsburgh (4-10) hosts [6]North Carolina (11-3) (12:00, ACCN)
[34]Miami (8-6) hosts [12]Duke (10-4) (4:00, CBS)
[146]Boston College (2-12) hosts [46]Virginia Tech (7-7) (4:00, ACCN)

Sunday
[4]Louisville (10-4) hosts [48]Syracuse (8-7) (2:00, CBS)
[26]Notre Dame (10-5) hosts [76]Georgia Tech (7-7) (6:30, ESPNU)

[BandAlum83]

Personally, I would love to see as many second tier teams win out as possible while we win out also. I am rooting for GT, they've had such a great season compared to projections. Let's get 10 in the tourney!

[Bob Green]

I'm looking forward to the Miami at Virginia game at 7 pm tonight. Are the Hoos in freefall? Or, can they right the ship at home. Virginia has lost three in a row and four of their last five games. Their one win was against Louisville with the Cardinals playing with a depleted roster due to injuries and suspensions.

[PackMan97]

Personally, I would love to see as many second tier teams win out as possible while we win out also.

NC State is doing our part to help the bubble teams win out!

[BandAlum83]

NC State is doing our part to help the bubble teams win out!

It would be a complete hoot if NCState somehow won the ACCT and got to the sweet 16 with a coach who was already fired! Do they rehire him at that point? Or do they just go forward looking very foolish? I would love to see NCSU make a run in the ACCT (unless and until they play us).

[Olympic Fan]

I'm looking forward to the Miami at Virginia game at 7 pm tonight. Are the Hoos in freefall? Or, can they right the ship at home. Virginia has lost three in a row and four of their last five games. Their one win was against Louisville with the Cardinals playing with a depleted roster due to injuries and suspensions.

I think Virginia is the victim of a killer stretch in their schedule.

The lose a 2 OT heartbreaker on the road to their biggest rival ... they lose a tough home game to a red-hot Duke team (that has been their biggest nemesis in the Bennett era) and they lose at UNC.

That doesn't look like free fall to me ... Notre Dame's Mike Brey talked of his team's four-game losing streak as "murder's row". Since enduring that, the schedule is breaking in his favor and Notre Dame has four straight wins (and two more coming before their tough finish at Louisville).

The schedule starts to break in Virginia's favor tonight. Miami is playing well, but in C'ville, it's a game the Cavs should win. They also have a road game at NC State that they should win and finish with two home games -- UNC and Pitt. Remember, they are 30-1 at home in the ACC when they are not playing Duke.

Florida State has also struggled recently on the road. I assume they get back tonight against BC in Tallahassee. I want to see how Bacon plays -- he was scoreless at Pitt Saturday and spent most of the second half on the bench (no word on any injury).

[Bob Green]

That doesn't look like free fall to me ...

I tend to agree with you, which is why I posed a question instead of making a statement. We will start finding out in a couple of minutes. How much energy will Virginia bring on to the court tonight? The answer to that question will be an early indicator of how their night is going to go.

[-jk]

The score's about right, but I wasn't expecting UVa to be down at the half...

-jk

[Bob Green]

Halftime: Miami 20, Virginia 19. An absolutely pathetic half of basketball, on the offensive end of the court, for both teams.

[Ultrarunner]

Halftime: Miami 20, Virginia 19. An absolutely pathetic half of basketball, on the offensive end of the court, for both teams.

Which is why I'm only tracking the box score. For visuals, I'm watching clouds billowing overhead.

The paint was already dry.

[duketaylor]

UVA scoring a bit in the 2nd half, crowd enthused. Maybe some resurgence going on. Has been a brutal stretch for them.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Which is why I'm only tracking the box score. For visuals, I'm watching clouds billowing overhead.

The paint was already dry.

Feels more like watching the grass grow...

[Troublemaker]

Props to Malcolm Brogdon for getting his jersey retired. Well deserved, of course. He was UVA's best player in each of their past three seasons, imo.

He was a two-way player -- very effective offensively -- but his defense should be legendary in UVA history. Instant fire extinguisher on any opposing player that got hot, including our own Brandon Ingram last season.

[Ultrarunner]

Feels more like watching the grass grow...

Fair enough. It's still dormant hereabouts, too.

Just extrapolated - who has the under on /- 80? You gotta shot a to be winner, crazy man.

[kmspeaks]

ACC refs doing their best to get Virginia off the schneid. Heading to OT.

[duke4ever19]

ACC refs doing their best to get Virginia off the schneid. Heading to OT.

The shot clearly wasn't in time.

[kmspeaks]

The shot clearly wasn't in time.

Yep. The last two fouls on Miami were also just as clearly clean blocks. If Diakite had made just one of two this game is already over.

[BandAlum83]

The shot clearly wasn't in time.

Will need at least triple overtime for me to hit the over. I'm done in the ACC wager contest.

This game is so boring, I fell asleep for the 2nd half and missed nothing.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

And UVA's season meltdown is nearly complete.

[duke4ever19]

Yep. The last two fouls on Miami were also just as clearly clean blocks. If Diakite had made just one of two this game is already over.

Ah, that's what you were referring to. I agree.

Looks like Miami pulled this one out. UVA is heading in the wrong direction.