Biggest Wins in MBB 2016-2017 Season

[superdave]

We are getting close to March, and I have limited time to watch other people's hoops, so I thought it would be interesting to see what big games other folks have watched this year and who the big winners have been. Winning big games - especially close ones, and road games - is always a good indicator of how good teams are.

Here's a quick list that comes to mind, starting with Duke, of course.

Duke 86, Unc 78
Duke 65, Uva 55
Kansas 77, Duke 75

Kansas 79, Kentucky 73
Kansas 67, Baylor 65(today!)
Baylor 66, Oregon 49

Oregon 85, Arizona 58
Gonzaga 69, Arizona 62

Villanova 79, Purdue 76
Villanova 61, Uva 59

Ucla 97, Kentucky 92
Kentucky 103, Unc 100

WVU 66, Uva 57
WVU 89, Baylor 68
WVU 85, Kansas 69
Kansas 84, WVU 80

What games am I missing? What wins loom largest for predicting the tournament? The Oregon win over Arizona seems signifcant, as does the WVU win over Kansas, and the Kansas win at Baylor today.

[jv001]

Duke's win over the cheats? GoDuke!

Man, I'm blind. Sorry. GoDuke!

[Neals384]

Louisville 73, Ky 70

[superdave]

After watching Virginia stink it up for the last week, I'd bump them from this list. You cant lose three in a row in February and be an elite team.

That makes me wonder how good Villanova is when their big win is over Uva.

[uh_no]

What wins loom largest for predicting the tournament?

While i think this is an interesting compilation, i'm skeptical of the premise that cherry picked individual games have much predictive value.

[-jk]

After watching Virginia stink it up for the last week, I'd bump them from this list. You cant lose three in a row in February and be an elite team...

Not sure - that was a tough row...

-jk

[MarkD83]

Kansas 77, Duke 75
Kansas 79, Kentucky 73
Baylor 66, Oregon 49
Gonzaga 69, Arizona 62
Villanova 79, Purdue 76
Villanova 61, Uva 59
Ucla 97, Kentucky 92
Kentucky 103, Unc 100
WVU 66, Uva 57
Louisville W over Ky

I eliminated the conference games since the committee can always seed teams in the same conference based on how they finished in their conference.

The seeding of teams in different conferences may come down to these head to head match-ups.

With that being the premise things look pretty good for

Kansas 2-0 in this list
Villanova 2-0 in this list but is the UVA game a strong win or not

Things are not good for Ky at 1-3 or the ACC 1-4.

[superdave]

I eliminated the conference games since the committee can always seed teams in the same conference based on how they finished in their conference.

The seeding of teams in different conferences may come down to these head to head match-ups.

With that being the premise things look pretty good for

Kansas 2-0 in this list
Villanova 2-0 in this list but is the UVA game a strong win or not

Things are not good for Ky at 1-3 or the ACC 1-4.

I like narrowing it to non-conference games. Recall the 2015 season when Duke went to Wisconsin and won. You knew they had something special after that win.

Kansas would seem to be the clear winner here, but as uh_no said it may not be predictive of anything. I do like KU's veteran backcourt though, which I feel like is highly predictive of tournament success.

[rsvman]

No mention of Duke over Florida?

[ChillinDuke]

This is solely my opinion. Nothing more, nothing less.

I think too much is made of the conference vs non-conference nature of games in terms of predictive value. Note, I am not saying that either is unimportant. Just that their importance, in and of themselves, is overstated.

What do I mean?

Non-con games largely occurred more than 2 whole months ago. Hard to use those wins, sparse as they are against top tier opponents by the way, to evaluate a team in mid-Feb. Similarly, conference games are much more recent but offer (1) a recency bias effect and (2) the whole historical knowledge perspective. Teams know each other in conference and it seems highly likely to me that it plays a role in game to game performance.

So if the point of this thread is to focus on teams that have high quality wins so as to set your TV tuner to watch them, fair enough. But insofar as posters will inevitably start to evaluate teams in this thread (like me), I tend to agree with posters like Superdave that the most obvious of metrics is the most compelling evidence to me, supported by data points from the non-con/con rhetoric. Specifically, Duke is on a 7-game winning streak in what appears to me as the toughest conference in the country with wins @ND, vUNC, and @UVA. That, to me, is super compelling. It's impressive on its merits but it's also highly relevant in its recency. To Superdave's point, I think a 3-game losing streak for UVA at this stage is not good. It doesn't mean they stink, but if you're gonna rate them somewhere right at this moment, it can't be Top-10 and probably not Top-20.

Kansas jumps out to me as well. I think they are great. And as someone pointed out, that back court is presumably highly predictive of tournament success.

Gonzaga to me is the classic case. The #1 seed with the least battle scars. I'm a strong believer in the "process" and if the process involves dominating trash teams I just don't think that pays dividends.

I think UNC is very good. And hats off to Roy because I look at his team and think he's overachieving given his roster, which is surprising. Justin Jackson finally took that step.

I also like Purdue a lot. I haven't watched them much but they have a good resume (close losses to Nova and Loovul, beat ND) and have won 5 straight and 8 of 9. They have dominated Mich St in both games this year, blew out NW, and just won @Indiana and @Maryland. The B1G may be down but if I were looking for a TV tune-in (and I am), I'd click on the next Purdue game (and I will).

- Chillin

[superdave]

Veering away from the big wins idea and towards a conversation about what helps predict post-season success, here's a few ideas -

Record in February - This shows teams starting to peak at the right time.

Top 10 Adjusted Defense - Defense wins championships right?

Veteran backcourt - Think Quinn Cook, Ryan Arcidiacino, Shabazz Napier.

What else am I missing? How do these stack up along with Big Wins when you sit down to pick your Final Four?