ACC Bubble Watch

[CDu]

So, we're in late-February, which means bubble watch time. As of now, I think it is safe to say that six ACC teams are comfortably in: UNC-CH, Louisville, FSU, Duke, UVa, and Notre Dame. From there, it gets interesting.

Virginia Tech (18-7, 7-6, RPI 33, Pomeroy 49): The Hokies have wins over Duke and UVa at home, but then have lost to State by a bunch in Raleigh. Still, I think that their general lack of bad losses combined with a relatively manageable back end of the schedule (@Louisville, but then home against Clemson, Miami, and Wake, and @BC) will get them in. It will be tricky after losing their leading rebounder for the season. But if they can get to 10-8 in conference, I think they will be in. That realistically means winning two of their three home games and beating BC.

Syracuse (16-11, 8-6 ACC, RPI 76, Pomeroy 48): The Cuse has fared pretty well so far in conference. Wins over FSU and UVa look great, and they avoided losses to Wake and Clemson in heart-stopping fashion. The RPI is not pretty at all, nor are the blowout losses to BC and St John's. Pomeroy is a bit more forgiving. The Cuse have two games against Ga Tech, a home game against us, and a road game against Louisville. They probably need both of those Tech games to feel good about their chances. If they end up 9-9 in conference and 17-14 overall, I think they miss the dance. And it is not inconceivable for them to lose out, which would certainly eliminate them.

Miami (17-8, 7-6, RPI 49, Pomeroy 35): The Canes are sort of strangely different from Cuse despite similar conference records. Miami has just one truly impressive win (blowing out UNC at home). What they have done is for the most part avoid bad losses. They haven't lost to a team outside the RPI top-80 (@Syracuse is their worst loss). Unfortunately, they also don't have many impressive wins. Just 2-7 against the RPI top-50 (5-8 against the RPI top-100) illustrates that what the Canes have mainly done is beat the teams they should beat. Their schedule gets tougher, as they close with Clemson, @UVa, Duke, @Va Tech, and @FSU. They could very conceivably lose any/all of those games. Beating Clemson is a borderline must, because I'd expect them to lose 3 of their last 4. And I don't think their resume would get them in at 9-9 in conference with just the 2 or 3 top-50 wins. They would certainly be sweating it out at 19-11 and 9-9 in conference.

Georgia Tech (15-11, 6-7, RPI 78, Pomeroy 78: The Jackets are a really bizarre case. Losses to Ohio and Penn State are not great. Nor is the sub-.500 record in conference. The RPI and Pomeroy marks both look unfavorable. And yet, they have wins over UNC, FSU, and Notre Dame. Those are REALLY impressive scalps. They finish the year with a pair against Syracuse (so one of the Cuse and Ga Tech are definitely out of at-large consideration), a road game against Notre Dame (they could REALLY boost their case with a win in South Bend), and must-win games against State and Pitt. My feeling is that they will lose 3 of 5 and miss out. But if they win out? I think they stamp their ticket. Anything less than 4-1 down the stretch probably keeps them out.

Clemson (14-11, 4-9, RPI 53, Pomeroy 36): Man, I feel bad for Brad Brownell and Clemson. They are a good team. But they have lost EIGHT games by 6 points or less, including four games by 3 points or less. If they even win two of those four super close games I'd actually put their case as about the same as Miami. But they just can't seem to finish. The bright side? If Clemson runs the table (@Miami, @Va Tech, and home versus FSU, State, and BC), they finish 19-11 and 9-9 in conference with wins over South Carolina and FSU, not to mention finishing on a 6-game win streak. And both their RPI (likely in the top-40) and Pomeroy (likely top-30) would look very nice.

Wake Forest (15-11, 6-8, RPI 38, Pomeroy 34): Wake has had some tough luck too. They are in a slightly better place than Clemson, but I think they probably need to win 3 of 4 to feel good. They don't have any great wins. They have just 4 wins against the current RPI top-100 (against a boatload of losses). Because of that, I don't think simply finishing .500 or better in conference is enough. They need to get some nice wins. Road game against Duke would help (hopefully they lose though). So would a home game against Louisville. Aside from that, they have a home game against Pitt and what is likely an elimination game for them at Va Tech.

If I had to guess, I'd say that Va Tech and Syracuse get in, and one or two of the others will be on the bubble. Several of these teams play each other (Va Tech, for instance, could single-handedly bury the hopes of Wake and Clemson and put Miami in danger as well).

[pfrduke]

So, we're in late-February, which means bubble watch time. As of now, I think it is safe to say that six ACC teams are comfortably in: UNC-CH, Louisville, FSU, Duke, UVa, and Notre Dame. From there, it gets interesting.

Virginia Tech (18-7, 7-6, RPI 33, Pomeroy 49): The Hokies have wins over Duke and UVa at home, but then have lost to State by a bunch in Raleigh. Still, I think that their general lack of bad losses combined with a relatively manageable back end of the schedule (@Louisville, but then home against Clemson, Miami, and Wake, and @BC) will get them in. It will be tricky after losing their leading rebounder for the season. But if they can get to 10-8 in conference, I think they will be in. That realistically means winning two of their three home games and beating BC.

Syracuse (16-11, 8-6 ACC, RPI 76, Pomeroy 48): The Cuse has fared pretty well so far in conference. Wins over FSU and UVa look great, and they avoided losses to Wake and Clemson in heart-stopping fashion. The RPI is not pretty at all, nor are the blowout losses to BC and St John's. Pomeroy is a bit more forgiving. The Cuse have two games against Ga Tech, a home game against us, and a road game against Louisville. They probably need both of those Tech games to feel good about their chances. If they end up 9-9 in conference and 17-14 overall, I think they miss the dance. And it is not inconceivable for them to lose out, which would certainly eliminate them.

Miami (17-8, 7-6, RPI 49, Pomeroy 35): The Canes are sort of strangely different from Cuse despite similar conference records. Miami has just one truly impressive win (blowing out UNC at home). What they have done is for the most part avoid bad losses. They haven't lost to a team outside the RPI top-80 (@Syracuse is their worst loss). Unfortunately, they also don't have many impressive wins. Just 2-7 against the RPI top-50 (5-8 against the RPI top-100) illustrates that what the Canes have mainly done is beat the teams they should beat. Their schedule gets tougher, as they close with Clemson, @UVa, Duke, @Va Tech, and @FSU. They could very conceivably lose any/all of those games. Beating Clemson is a borderline must, because I'd expect them to lose 3 of their last 4. And I don't think their resume would get them in at 9-9 in conference with just the 2 or 3 top-50 wins. They would certainly be sweating it out at 19-11 and 9-9 in conference.

Georgia Tech (15-11, 6-7, RPI 78, Pomeroy 78: The Jackets are a really bizarre case. Losses to Ohio and Penn State are not great. Nor is the sub-.500 record in conference. The RPI and Pomeroy marks both look unfavorable. And yet, they have wins over UNC, FSU, and Notre Dame. Those are REALLY impressive scalps. They finish the year with a pair against Syracuse (so one of the Cuse and Ga Tech are definitely out of at-large consideration), a road game against Notre Dame (they could REALLY boost their case with a win in South Bend), and must-win games against State and Pitt. My feeling is that they will lose 3 of 5 and miss out. But if they win out? I think they stamp their ticket. Anything less than 4-1 down the stretch probably keeps them out.

Clemson (14-11, 4-9, RPI 53, Pomeroy 36): Man, I feel bad for Brad Brownell and Clemson. They are a good team. But they have lost EIGHT games by 6 points or less, including four games by 3 points or less. If they even win two of those four super close games I'd actually put their case as about the same as Miami. But they just can't seem to finish. The bright side? If Clemson runs the table (@Miami, @Va Tech, and home versus FSU, State, and BC), they finish 19-11 and 9-9 in conference with wins over South Carolina and FSU, not to mention finishing on a 6-game win streak. And both their RPI (likely in the top-40) and Pomeroy (likely top-30) would look very nice.

Wake Forest (15-11, 6-8, RPI 38, Pomeroy 34): Wake has had some tough luck too. They are in a slightly better place than Clemson, but I think they probably need to win 3 of 4 to feel good. They don't have any great wins. They have just 4 wins against the current RPI top-100 (against a boatload of losses). Because of that, I don't think simply finishing .500 or better in conference is enough. They need to get some nice wins. Road game against Duke would help (hopefully they lose though). So would a home game against Louisville. Aside from that, they have a home game against Pitt and what is likely an elimination game for them at Va Tech.

If I had to guess, I'd say that Va Tech and Syracuse get in, and one or two of the others will be on the bubble. Several of these teams play each other (Va Tech, for instance, could single-handedly bury the hopes of Wake and Clemson and put Miami in danger as well).

For Wake to finish .500, they need to go 3-1, so .500 necessarily includes either a win @Duke or at home over Louisville. With the rest of their resume, I think that would put them on the right side of the bubble.

[CDu]

We probably lost our first bubble team today. Clemson's loss to Miami locks them into a sub-.500 conference season. That probably knocks them out, but puts Miami a step closer to being in.

Also, while Wake gave us a real scare, they now have their backs against the wall. At 6-9 in conference, and without any shiny wins, their case is looking grim.

Va Tech narrowly missed its chance to lock up a bid at Louisville, but they are still okay.

Tomorrow will put Ga Tech's hopes on the line. Their RPI isn't strong, and they are just 15-11. Losing at home to another bubble team might just realistically burst that bubble.

[WakeDevil]

I do not see the love for Miami. They played a horrible OOC schedule and beat nobody. Ditto for Syracuse. I like Clemson better, but I know that is not going to happen because that team cannot finish. The ACC Tournament will be important this year for several teams trying to burnish their records.

Ohio State shot itself in the foot today with a home loss, and Tom Izzo is hanging by a thread.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[Devilwin]

Wake may not make it, but that would be a shame. They could very easily have beaten us twice. Been a weird season thus far..

[CDu]

I do not see the love for Miami. They played a horrible OOC schedule and beat nobody. Ditto for Syracuse. I like Clemson better, but I know that is not going to happen because that team cannot finish. The ACC Tournament will be important this year for several teams trying to burnish their records.

Ohio State shot itself in the foot today with a home loss, and Tom Izzo is hanging by a thread.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Wake may not make it, but that would be a shame. They could very easily have beaten us twice. Been a weird season thus far..

I agree with you both. I think Clemson and Wake are as good as - if not better than - Va Tech, Miami, and Syracuse. Unfortunately, they haven't fared quite well enough against a much tougher schedule. Too many losses against the top-100, not enough wins. They should be commended for both playing top-10 schedules nationally. But you have to get some wins.

Wake still has an outside chance. But I fear that both will need to win the ACC tourney (or make a VERY deep run) to get in.

[jimsumner]

I'm still trying to figure out how GT and Syracuse can still have two games against each other this late in the season.

[Wander]

The middle of the ACC is really good. I'm going to make my first unreasonable postseason prediction and take "the field" against the NCAA tournament locks of Duke, UNC, Louisville, FSU, UVA, and Notre Dame (although UVA may need to win one more game, anywhere, to be a real lock) in the ACC tournament. One of the middle/bottom teams will win it.

[CDu]

The middle of the ACC is really good. I'm going to make my first unreasonable postseason prediction and take "the field" against the NCAA tournament locks of Duke, UNC, Louisville, FSU, UVA, and Notre Dame (although UVA may need to win one more game, anywhere, to be a real lock) in the ACC tournament. One of the middle/bottom teams will win it.

Eh, I would still comfortably take the top six over the bottom nine in terms of providing the conference winner. That said, I would definitely expect at least one of the bottom nine to be playing in Friday's semifinals.

[WakeDevil]

There are two home-and-home meetings that were scheduled after Duke's first game with UNC. I doubt that has ever happeed.

[Wander]

(although UVA may need to win one more game, anywhere, to be a real lock)

Like I said...

They're fine as long as they don't finish the season on an 8 game losing streak, but they're halfway to that.

[duketaylor]

I do not see the love for Miami. They played a horrible OOC schedule and beat nobody. Ditto for Syracuse. I like Clemson better, but I know that is not going to happen because that team cannot finish. The ACC Tournament will be important this year for several teams trying to burnish their records.

Ohio State shot itself in the foot today with a home loss, and Tom Izzo is hanging by a thread.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Did you see the side-by-side comparison of UVA and Miami (before Miami beat them in C'ville just now)? Identical numbers, now Miami's numbers are better, they're likely in.

[CDu]

Did you see the side-by-side comparison of UVA and Miami (before Miami beat them in C'ville just now)? Identical numbers, now Miami's numbers are better, they're likely in.

Those were cherry-picked numbers to make for entertaining conversation. They showed overall record, ACC record, top win, worst loss, and that is all. But they ignored quality of competition and number of quality wins. UVa wins on that front. And UVa is RPI#15, Miami #45. UVa is #9 in Pomeroy, Miami #30.

The win probably puts Miami comfortably in. But coming into that game, their resumes weren't identical. UVa had a substantially better resume, which is why Lunardi had them 4 full seeds higher.

[CDu]

Two bubble teams are playing for their at-large-bid lives tonight. Clemson is at Va Tech. With 10 losses, they need to win out. And Ga Tech is hosting State. A loss to the Pack at home would probably sink their ship.

[Bob Green]

Entertaining 1st half in Blacksburg as VT leads Clemson 41-38. With the exception of a 9-0 run by Clemson, which turned a 21-18 deficit into a 27-21 lead for the Tigers, I thought VT consistently looked like the better team. Lots of basketball left to be played in this one.

[Tripping William]

Entertaining 1st half in Blacksburg as VT leads Clemson 41-38. With the exception of a 9-0 run by Clemson, which turned a 21-18 deficit into a 27-21 lead for the Tigers, I thought VT consistently looked like the better team. Lots of basketball left to be played in this one.

Poor Clemson.

[CDu]

Unbelievable season for Clemson. Their at-large bid is now shot with a 1-pt loss.

[duketaylor]

Another tough game for the mid-level ACC teams, i.e. VT and Klem. Last possession game. Klem can't win anything for the most part.

[CDu]

Tough night for the two bubble teams. Clemson took their 11th ACC loss by 1 on a late 3 by Allen. That probably buries their at-large chances. Really tough season for the Tigers. They have generally played well, but just keep losing close. Just too many losses at this point, as they are 14-13 and 4-11 in conference.

Georgia Tech was a team on the rise, coming off a win over a bubble team in Syracuse. Well, so much for that. A 2-point loss to State at home is a backbreaker. They now have to go to Syracuse and Notre Dame and also play a tough Pitt team. With their crappy RPI, I don't know that a 9-9 conference will get it done. This was a game they really had to have. But with the loss, I think Tech joins BC, Pitt, NC State, and Clemson as needing to win the ACC to get into the big dance.

[BandAlum83]

Wow, did anyone else see the endof theG
After a furious comeback from down 13, GT had 2.1 seconds on the clock, down 2.

They had the length of the court to go, and without a timeout to set up a play, they showed what a good coach Josh Pastner is.

The situation and time left was almost identical to the Laettner shot. GT was completely ready with the end of game play without a timeout.

The inbounder threw near the length of the court to Lammers at the top of the key who went up to catch it as 3 defenders closed on him. Lammers then passed to an open Jackson for an open 3 attempt at about the spot Austin Rivers made his shot...maybe a little closer to the 3pt line.

Jackson got a gret look. Open 3 and it went off the rim.

Pastner definitely had this team coached up and ready. Great execution, great look, disciplined, all without a timeout.

I was impressed.