MBB: Duke at UVA (Wed 2/15, 9:00pm ET, ESPN2) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Troublemaker]

Please put your thoughts in here.

Migrating some posts over:

2OT VA loss to Tech

VA had nothing at the end.
http://www.gobblercountry.com/2017/2...ouble-ot-80-78

I wonder if they'll be a little low on fuel on Wed.

Yes, UVA has an excellent defense and beat Louisville rather easily. I believe Tony Bennett is one of the top 5 coaches in the league and his teams are always competitive. The next game we face them on the road and they are more highly rated. they match up pretty well with us so it should be a real test. I hope that Grayson's ankle will be close to normal because we will need him.

Virginia will put experienced guards against us with Marial Shayak and London Ferrantes and Devon Hall playing minutes. Don't know who Matt will defend. Enough of this, I will save it for the pregame thread with UVA.

Paging Mr. Perrantes, you have a call from a Mr. M. Jones. A call from Mr. M. Jones. He'd like to introduce himself...

[Troublemaker]

Replying to the above migrated posts...

I think UVA will be fine for Wednesday despite the 2OT loss. They have a full 72 hours to recover; game ended ~9pm tonight and Duke-UVA will tip ~9pm Wednesday.

Yes, I think Matt will be assigned leading scorer Perrantes.
(1) Perrantes is a really good player but not a cat-quick PG, so I think Matt can handle it.
(2) Perrantes goes off the ball a lot to score.

[Fish80]

We need to dissect the second half. VT figured out how to score on the cavalier wahoos.

[fan345678]

Two years ago, the road game at Virginia was when we knew...
https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

[fisheyes]

FIFY:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

That was an awesome game.

It will take the same effort.

Can it be done?

Ozzie?

Ozzie?

YES WE CAN!!!

[uh_no]

oh yeah...and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8DO-HfmfiA

[MrPoon]

Two years ago, the road game at Virginia was when we knew...
https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

Boy was that awesome! Miss watching Winslow, just an agresive style that exploded off the screen (and in person, saw that team three times including final!). Then you have T Stones. Wow, thanks for reminding me. Feels longer than two years ago.

Devil's aren't as good as that group... yet. But I don't think VA is as good as that version either. Probably a similar, close game, hopefully the same result.

I've only watched the two OTs and a few other halves of VA this year but they are even less dynamic on offense then past years. I thought VTech attacked really well into the key off the dribble which is Luke's specialty and I think Tatum's more efficient version of late can find some gaps. Plus some nice kick outs. Rebounding will be important as always. Very optimistic on this one but will require a patient effort on D. VA will fall in the rankings after this loss but I still think they are over ranked and a win here will help Duke's seeding and perception. Need that signature road win. This will be it.

Convinced that Jones is on a roll and he will have another shot at player of the game for those watching closely. Oh, and I've predicted a big game from Giles for every one of the games in this streak so I'll do it again (even though it has yet to happen).

[BandAlum83]

Go Duke!!!

[Troublemaker]

As one of the 12-6ers in the "Predict Duke's ACC Record" thread, I counted this game as a loss but, of course, would be thrilled if Duke could pull off a W. Truth be told, I didn't put gigantic thought into deciding it was a loss. It was just a gut feeling of "This isn't 2015." Something we were already reminded of when Duke lost at Louisville.

This version of UVA maybe matches up a little bit better with Duke than previous versions. We'll get to that later.

But first... typically a generic Duke team matches up well with a generic UVA team for a number of reasons:

(1) On offense, UVA typically relies less on driving the ball than other teams. They rely more on using two traditional bigs to run around and set off-ball screens to free UVA's shooters, and they call this "Blocker/Mover" offense. As a program, Duke excels at guarding off the ball and less so guarding on the ball. So UVA's preference plays into Duke's strength.

(2) On defense, UVA will allow you to shoot 3s and rely on good closeouts to lower the shooting percentage. Duke recruits great shooters who are less bothered by closeouts. For example, we've played them 4 times ever since they leveled up to become a great program in 2014. In those 4 games, Duke shot a combined 32-75 (or 43%) from three and won 3 out of 4 games (although the loss was a big one, an ACC Championship Game in which Duke still shot 8-14 from three). I'd be surprised if any ACC program has shot as well against them since 2014. Of course, there is a lot of luck involved with shooting percentages, and we very well could have a bad shooting day on Wednesday. Who knows.

(3) UVA is less likely to punish Duke in transition, as they prefer to slow it down and use a lot of shot clock.

(4) UVA is typically not a strong offensive rebounding team; they focus on getting back in transition. Finally, UVA typically is not strong at drawing fouls; this is related to them being less of a driving team.

In a later post, I'll give some thoughts on why this UVA team might match up better with this Duke team than usual.

[Troublemaker]

Since Tony Bennett arrived at UVA, the Hoos are:

2-8 against Duke, including the aforementioned 1-3 since 2014.

5-6 against UNC, including 3-2 since 2014.

5-1 against Louisville. (The Cardinals joined the conference in 2015).

Those are the ACC's elite programs (although UNC could be moving out of the neighborhood soon depending on NCAA action), so it's maybe good/interesting to pay attention to how well they're playing each other.

From Duke's perspective, I like how we match up against all three of UNC, UVA, and Lville. We've won 12 of the past 16 against UNC, and even though we're only 2-2 so far against Louisville, I bet we'll end up on the positive side as more games are played since the Cardinals like to play 2 bigs together.

[budwom]

Two years ago, the road game at Virginia was when we knew...
https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

LOL, I think that was the game where UVA led most of the way, and Bilas spent about two hours shouting "Virginia Will Strangle You," and
then they lost.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

FIFY:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

That was an awesome game.

It will take the same effort.

Can it be done?

Ozzie?

Ozzie?

YES WE CAN!!!

Our current roster compares very favorably with that one. Grayson and Luke as Q and Ty, Jayson as Justice, Matt as, well, Matt and Amile as Amile! Frank Jackson combines shooting and athleticism, but not necessarily the power, of Justice.

If we shoot well, we'll win. If we don't, it gets a bit dicey, but we'll still win! LGD GTHc!

[CDu]

UVa is doing what UVa does: being as good or better than the sum of their parts. They are an elite defense (#3 in the country). They play glacially slow (#350 of 351 in tempo). They are pretty good on offense too (#17). Just a well-oiled machine being run by Bennett up there.

Frontcourt: UVa plays most of the game with two bigs on the floor, although they aren't a terribly big team. Wilkins (6'7", 225lb junior) is the key to their interior defense (well, that along with the pack line approach). His stats don't wow you, but he's an extremely effective and versatile defender. Salt (6'11", 245lb redshirt soph from Australia) is the other starter. But he's only a nominal starter. He plays about 15-20 mpg. He's mostly a big body who commits fouls almost as much as he gets points or rebounds. But, he serves his role. Off the bench, the Cavs have a pair of talented players. Reuter (6'7", 245lb soph) is a rugged big with a decent shooting touch. He only gets about 10 mpg. The only other big is Diakite (6'9", 215lb redshirt frosh from Guinea). Diakite is a lanky, athletic kid who is not afraid to shoot jumpers, and can block shots (1.3 blocks per 13 mpg). But, like Reuter, he plays fairly sparingly. None of the bigs have wildly impressive individual stats, but they are efficient and effective inside. The quartet combines for about 20 ppg, 15 rpg, and 3.5 bpg. The Cavs will also spend 5-10 mpg with a SF at PF.

Wings: The Cavs are a REALLY deep team, and it shows most evidently on the wings. They have a ton of semi-interchangeable parts. The starters are Shayok (6'5, 195lb junior) and Hall (6'5", 205lb redshirt junior). Shayok is extremely athletic, high-volume shooter on the wing. He was a really good 3pt shooter his first two years (over 40% combined), but has struggled with his shot this year (32%). He isn't a high-volume 3pt shooter, though, so that is less of a concern. Still he can hit it if left open (that is going to be a recurring theme). Hall has become a stud this year. He's sort of a poor man's Brogdon: excellent 3pt shooter, strong, physical defender, solid ballhandler. He will do his fair share with the ball in his hands. Behind those two are Darius Thompson (6'4", 195lb junior transfer from Tennessee) and Kyle Guy (6'3", 165lb frosh). Thompson is a solid ballhandler and defender, and has developed into a capable shooter too. Guy is sort of the anti-UVa guy: he's a flashy, all-offense player who is having to learn to play on the other end. But he's an incredibly dynamic scorer, shooting 48.5% from 3. He only plays about 15-20 mpg, but he gets his shots up for sure (leads the team in FGA per minute).

PGs: Perrantes (6'2", 195lb senior) is the man running the show. He's a steady senior 4-year starter. Perrantes historically has been a good, if reluctant, shooter. This year, he's being asked to take on a bit more of the scoring burden thanks to the departures over the years. He's been great, shooting 40% from three and leading the team in points and assists. And, of course, he's terrific defensively. Perrantes also contributes on the glass, averaging 3 rpg. He will play 30+ mpg. Jerome (6'5", 190lb frosh) is the backup PG. He's a big, steady PG who can shoot it and is the heir apparent to Perrantes. Jerome had been playing fairly sparingly, but his role has increased to the point that he's playing 15-20 mpg most of the time now.

UVa is not an overly flashy team. They grind it out in the half court. They don't allow shots in the paint, but they also contest on the perimeter. They don't allow a ton of offensive rebounds either. On the other end, they don't get a ton of offensive rebounds, focusing instead on getting good looks and avoiding transition chances. They don't force many turnovers and they don't commit many turnovers. They want every possession to be a battle, and are not at all afraid to play defense for 25+ seconds each trip down. On offense, they are very deep, with a variety of good shooters. Everyone takes good shots, and virtually all of their perimeter guys are strong shooters. They aren't a very quick team, though. Shayok is probably their most athletic perimeter player, but he isn't a strong ballhandler. Hall, Thompson, Perantes, Guy, and Jerome are capable ballhandlers but not overly explosive athletes. So they run their offense, get a lot of midrange jumpers and threes, and occasionally get the easy look near the basket with good ball movement.

From that perspective, we matchup reasonably well. They aren't going to blow by us off the dribble like State did or Tech or others have done. They also don't pound the offensive glass either. They will still be an dangerous offense, but hopefully our two biggest weaknesses on defense don't get exposed too much. On the other end, they will make it tough for guys like Tatum and Allen to drive into the lane. They will make it tough on Kennard too, but Kennard doesn't drive in the same manner as Allen and Tatum (he's more patient in his drives). We'll need to hit our 3s, because they'll allow some looks. But it is going to be a battle.

[Sir Stealth]

In the ACC it's amazing how much teams tend to have the same feel year to year despite player turnover. Every time we play UNC, the number one thing I look for/worry about is will we get back on defense and prevent transition.

Against UVA, a big part of the game always seems to be how much we can overcome the UVA's physical defense and the inevitable clutching and grabbing of our players as they try to move on offense. With the yo-yoing ACC refs it's anybody's guess how much this will be allowed. If it is allowed, it will be a good test for Luke and Grayson to see how much they can overcome it and still get open. Would really like to see Grayson looking agile and healthy on that ankle.

With UVA on a losing streak playing at home and Duke on a winning streak (and looking tired last game), it feels like UVA may just be hungrier for the win in what would already have been a very tough game. If Duke is able to pull this out I will be very impressed on a number of levels.

[Troublemaker]

In a later post, I'll give some thoughts on why this UVA team might match up better with this Duke team than usual.

This season, UVA goes to a 4-guard lineup somewhat frequently. For example, according to kenpom($), in the past 5 games, UVA spent 40% of the time playing either Devon Hall or Marial Shayok at the "4". How well Duke plays against UVA's 4-guard lineup will decide the game. Sometimes we've performed admirably against smallball (e.g. Rhode Island, Notre Dame) and sometimes we've struggled (e.g. VaTech, Clemson).

If anyone saw the UVA / VPI game last night, you saw that down the stretch UVA went small and played a very un-UVA like offense. Perrantes would repeatedly run a ball screen and get a Hokie big man to switch onto him, and then Perrantes would take him 1-on-1 to the basket for a layup or foul. Will Duke handle this better than VPI did?

The second thing that's different about this UVA team is how often their defense is forcing turnovers. Prior to this season, Tony Bennett had never had a top-100 defense at forcing turnovers. This season? They are 38th in the country and 2nd in the conference behind Florida St. at forcing turnovers.

And that usually wouldn't even be a major concern, except that THIS Duke team has had turnover issues in conference play, which I've mentioned before. I could easily see our guys making poor passes and decisions against the Pack Line, including overpenetrating and getting stripped by a Pack wing.

So, here would be my keys to the game:
(1) Defending UVA's 4-guard lineup well, if they decide to give up Blocker/Mover and just spread Duke out and drive.
(2) Limiting turnovers against the Pack Line. Make the right pass at the right time. When UVA is locked in on defense, it'll feel like you can only get one penetrating dribble before they've collapsed on you. Be prepared to do one-dribble-kick, one-dribble-kick, one-dribble-kick.
(3) Making a good percentage of our threes.

I expect a loss because I think one or more of those things will break down.

[Troublemaker]

In the ACC it's amazing how much teams tend to have the same feel year to year despite player turnover. Every time we play UNC, the number one thing I look for/worry about is will we get back on defense and prevent transition.

Against UVA, a big part of the game always seems to be how much we can overcome the UVA's physical defense and the inevitable clutching and grabbing of our players as they try to move on offense. With the yo-yoing ACC refs it's anybody's guess how much this will be allowed. If it is allowed, it will be a good test for Luke and Grayson to see how much they can overcome it and still get open. Would really like to see Grayson looking agile and healthy on that ankle.

With UVA on a losing streak playing at home and Duke on a winning streak (and looking tired last game), it feels like UVA may just be hungrier for the win in what would already have been a very tough game. If Duke is able to pull this out I will be very impressed on a number of levels.

Duke will be the biggest underdog that it's been this season.

FSU was favored by 1.5.
Louisville was favored by 3.5.

My guess is that UVA will be favored by 5.5.

[Spanarkel]

UVa is doing what UVa does: being as good or better than the sum of their parts. They are an elite defense (#3 in the country). They play glacially slow (#350 of 351 in tempo). They are pretty good on offense too (#17). Just a well-oiled machine being run by Bennett up there.

Frontcourt: UVa plays most of the game with two bigs on the floor, although they aren't a terribly big team. Wilkins (6'7", 225lb junior) is the key to their interior defense (well, that along with the pack line approach). His stats don't wow you, but he's an extremely effective and versatile defender. Salt (6'11", 245lb redshirt soph from Australia) is the other starter. But he's only a nominal starter. He plays about 15-20 mpg. He's mostly a big body who commits fouls almost as much as he gets points or rebounds. But, he serves his role. Off the bench, the Cavs have a pair of talented players. Reuter (6'7", 245lb soph) is a rugged big with a decent shooting touch. He only gets about 10 mpg. The only other big is Diakite (6'9", 215lb redshirt frosh from Guinea). Diakite is a lanky, athletic kid who is not afraid to shoot jumpers, and can block shots (1.3 blocks per 13 mpg). But, like Reuter, he plays fairly sparingly. None of the bigs have wildly impressive individual stats, but they are efficient and effective inside. The quartet combines for about 20 ppg, 15 rpg, and 3.5 bpg. The Cavs will also spend 5-10 mpg with a SF at PF.

Wings: The Cavs are a REALLY deep team, and it shows most evidently on the wings. They have a ton of semi-interchangeable parts. The starters are Shayok (6'5, 195lb junior) and Hall (6'5", 205lb redshirt junior). Shayok is extremely athletic, high-volume shooter on the wing. He was a really good 3pt shooter his first two years (over 40% combined), but has struggled with his shot this year (32%). He isn't a high-volume 3pt shooter, though, so that is less of a concern. Still he can hit it if left open (that is going to be a recurring theme). Hall has become a stud this year. He's sort of a poor man's Brogdon: excellent 3pt shooter, strong, physical defender, solid ballhandler. He will do his fair share with the ball in his hands. Behind those two are Darius Thompson (6'4", 195lb junior transfer from Tennessee) and Kyle Guy (6'3", 165lb frosh). Thompson is a solid ballhandler and defender, and has developed into a capable shooter too. Guy is sort of the anti-UVa guy: he's a flashy, all-offense player who is having to learn to play on the other end. But he's an incredibly dynamic scorer, shooting 48.5% from 3. He only plays about 15-20 mpg, but he gets his shots up for sure (leads the team in FGA per minute).

PGs: Perrantes (6'2", 195lb senior) is the man running the show. He's a steady senior 4-year starter. Perrantes historically has been a good, if reluctant, shooter. This year, he's being asked to take on a bit more of the scoring burden thanks to the departures over the years. He's been great, shooting 40% from three and leading the team in points and assists. And, of course, he's terrific defensively. Perrantes also contributes on the glass, averaging 3 rpg. He will play 30+ mpg. Jerome (6'5", 190lb frosh) is the backup PG. He's a big, steady PG who can shoot it and is the heir apparent to Perrantes. Jerome had been playing fairly sparingly, but his role has increased to the point that he's playing 15-20 mpg most of the time now.

UVa is not an overly flashy team. They grind it out in the half court. They don't allow shots in the paint, but they also contest on the perimeter. They don't allow a ton of offensive rebounds either. On the other end, they don't get a ton of offensive rebounds, focusing instead on getting good looks and avoiding transition chances. They don't force many turnovers and they don't commit many turnovers. They want every possession to be a battle, and are not at all afraid to play defense for 25+ seconds each trip down. On offense, they are very deep, with a variety of good shooters. Everyone takes good shots, and virtually all of their perimeter guys are strong shooters. They aren't a very quick team, though. Shayok is probably their most athletic perimeter player, but he isn't a strong ballhandler. Hall, Thompson, Perantes, Guy, and Jerome are capable ballhandlers but not overly explosive athletes. So they run their offense, get a lot of midrange jumpers and threes, and occasionally get the easy look near the basket with good ball movement.

From that perspective, we matchup reasonably well. They aren't going to blow by us off the dribble like State did or Tech or others have done. They also don't pound the offensive glass either. They will still be an dangerous offense, but hopefully our two biggest weaknesses on defense don't get exposed too much. On the other end, they will make it tough for guys like Tatum and Allen to drive into the lane. They will make it tough on Kennard too, but Kennard doesn't drive in the same manner as Allen and Tatum (he's more patient in his drives). We'll need to hit our 3s, because they'll allow some looks. But it is going to be a battle.

Excellent summary/analysis, CDu! Not to nitpick, but Salt hails from New Zealand, and IMO Guy is a better athlete than I have seen him given credit for. I saw him play several times when I lived in Indiana, and his vertical may exceed 40"(hope we don't see it on Wednesday!). Let's go, Duke!

[DavidBenAkiva]

UVa is not an overly flashy team. They grind it out in the half court. They don't allow shots in the paint, but they also contest on the perimeter. They don't allow a ton of offensive rebounds either. On the other end, they don't get a ton of offensive rebounds, focusing instead on getting good looks and avoiding transition chances. They don't force many turnovers and they don't commit many turnovers. They want every possession to be a battle, and are not at all afraid to play defense for 25+ seconds each trip down. On offense, they are very deep, with a variety of good shooters. Everyone takes good shots, and virtually all of their perimeter guys are strong shooters. They aren't a very quick team, though. Shayok is probably their most athletic perimeter player, but he isn't a strong ballhandler. Hall, Thompson, Perantes, Guy, and Jerome are capable ballhandlers but not overly explosive athletes. So they run their offense, get a lot of midrange jumpers and threes, and occasionally get the easy look near the basket with good ball movement.

This is a great writeup, CDu. Some stats to add to the rebounding discussion: UVA is an excellent defensive rebounding team, pulling in 79.3% of available defensive rebounds. That's 5th in the country. But they are not nearly as good at offensive rebounding. Limiting second chance points is going to go quite a ways to competing with UVA. Despite being painfully slow on offense, UVA is incredibly efficient, ranking 23rd in effective field goal percentage and 9th in 2 point shooting percentage. Duke is pretty good in half-court defense, which plays into the team's defensive strengths. We close out on shooters and won't be facing a size disadvantage. Keeping the game inside the arc in the halfcourt on defense will be incredibly important. Getting those defensive boards will keep them limited to one shot opportunities, further limiting their offensive efficiency.

[CDu]

Excellent summary/analysis, CDu! Not to nitpick, but Salt hails from New Zealand, and IMO Guy is a better athlete than I have seen him given credit for. I saw him play several times when I lived in Indiana, and his vertical may exceed 40"(hope we don't see it on Wednesday!). Let's go, Duke!

Doh! You're right. Eh, Australia, New Zealand, six of one, half dozen of the other, right?

[Indoor66]

Doh! You're right. Eh, Australia, New Zealand, six of one, half dozen of the other, right?

What the heck is a few thousand miles?😈😎