Greg Monroe picks Georgetown

[_Gary]

Easy, easy. Singler is very much an "athletic big." So was McRoberts. So is Lance Thomas. Yes, Duke missed on three big targets, but it's dangerous to lump Duke's recruiting misses into a large stereotype. There are many factors are play, and we can't expect to get everyone we want.

Ehhhh. I know that technically you could call Singler and McRoberts athletic bigs (not sure about labeling Lance that) but those players weren't in the same mold as Wright, Patterson and Monroe. It's just not the same thing in my book. Singler and McRoberts came in as more of all-around, power forward type players that are very important because of their versatility. But when I talk about athletic bigs I'm thinking of those players that have a solid inside presence offensively and defensively (even if they aren't polished offensively). Surely you see the difference and understand what I'm getting at. Right?

[Jumbo]

Ehhhh. I know that technically you could call Singler and McRoberts athletic bigs (not sure about labeling Lance that) but those players weren't in the same mold as Wright, Patterson and Monroe. It's just not the same thing in my book. Singler and McRoberts came in as more of all-around, power forward type players that are very important because of their versatility. But when I talk about athletic bigs I'm thinking of those players that have a solid inside presence offensively and defensively (even if they aren't polished offensively). Surely you see the difference and understand what I'm getting at. Right?

I think, honestly, the only difference is race. Not sure if you've seen Patterson, but Josh was WAY more athletic. So, for that matter, is Singler. Patterson is burly.

[_Gary]

I think, honestly, the only difference is race. Not sure if you've seen Patterson, but Josh was WAY more athletic. So, for that matter, is Singler. Patterson is burly.

I can honestly say that for me it's not a race thing. But I can understand how you might get that impression. It's just not the case in my book.

[Bob Green]

Greg Monroe has picked Georgetown so it's time for me to move on. I've stated several times on this board that Brian Zoubek will be an inside force during his Junior and Senior seasons. Instead of dwelling on GM, I will be following BZs development. Zoubek is a bit behind due to his summer injury, but once his conditioning returns, he will be able to continue his development as an ACC caliber big man. I look for Duke to be extremely talented in 2008-2009 with a line-up of great guards and wings along with a frontline consisting of Kyle Singler, Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas. The same is true for 2007-2008.

[rthomas]

Greg Monroe has picked Georgetown so it's time for me to move on. I've stated several times on this board that Brian Zoubek will be an inside force during his Junior and Senior seasons. Instead of dwelling on GM, I will be following BZs development. Zoubek is a bit behind due to his summer injury, but once his conditioning returns, he will be able to continue his development as an ACC caliber big man. I look for Duke to be extremely talented in 2008-2009 with a line-up of great guards and wings along with a frontline consisting of Kyle Singler, Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas. The same is true for 2007-2008.

Word. !

[Lord Ash]

Maybe the word BIG isn't emphasized enough when we say athletic big. What I mean is maybe more a "big athletic big," and big doesn't mean tall, but strong and powerful. No one would consider Josh powerful. And Kyle Singler certainly has never had the word "power" attached to him. Obviously Lance isn't powerful. But the guys we have missed on are certain big shouldered, large bicep "big athletic bigs." I think that burly power is essential to a winning basketball program.

I do think that by his junior year Brian Zoubek will be decent enough to play. Heck, he might be okay this year, who knows? But as of now I would much rather have him as a second big option with a serious high-talent "big athletic big" as a first big option.

[Houston]

I understand there are ~300 division one programs with many schools offering attractive opportunities. However, we are Duke. We have a HOF coach who is also resurrecting the US basketball program. When PP selected UK, it was not a big disappointment b/c GM would be coming the following year. Now we have neither.

Although I hope I am wrong, BZ will be a project. He struggled as a freshman and lost the summer b/c of injury. If he played at another school, I don't think his skills would be appreciated by this board. We NEED EW to come and can not afford any early entries to the league.

[Troublemaker]

Not that big a deal as long as Singler stays two years and two of the following pan out as good players in the post (not necessarily via orthodox post play, btw): King, Zoubek, Czyz, Thomas.

I suspect King will surprise us this year and Czyz will surprise us next year. Pleasantly.

[jimsumner]

I'm certainly quite surprised that Monroe picked the Hoyas without even visiting Duke, especially when a few months ago he was telling anyone who would listen that Duke was his favorite school growing up. Duke very much wanted him and it is a significant miss.

But no, I don't think it was a disaster. We knew a couple of things going in. Duke signed seven players in the previous two classes, so it wasn't going to be a numerically big class. Note that all seven were prep All-Americans; not bad for a program in decline.

Secondly, we knew that the h.s. class of '08 is regarded as noticeably weaker than the class of '09. There simply weren't/aren't many players in that class that Duke can sign and wants to sign. That is not the case next season. Of Duke doesn't get a bunch of yesses from some combination of Boynton, Thompson, McDonald, Nelson, Echenique, Murphy, Hood, and others TBD, then worry would be a legitimate reaction. But not now.

I'm on record as thinking that Duke will be a top ten team this season with a 4/5 rotation of Singler, Thomas, Zoubek, McClure, and King. All should be back next season, older, more experienced, stronger. Add Czyz. So the interior group should be better in '09 than '08. Hypothetical? Sure. But, as Jumbo pointed out, so is any speculation on the future. Monroe would have been a big help. But I think a deep breath and step back from the bridge is the right move here.

[_Gary]

Maybe the word BIG isn't emphasized enough when we say athletic big. What I mean is maybe more a "big athletic big," and big doesn't mean tall, but strong and powerful. No one would consider Josh powerful. And Kyle Singler certainly has never had the word "power" attached to him. Obviously Lance isn't powerful. But the guys we have missed on are certain big shouldered, large bicep "big athletic bigs." I think that burly power is essential to a winning basketball program.

I do think that by his junior year Brian Zoubek will be decent enough to play. Heck, he might be okay this year, who knows? But as of now I would much rather have him as a second big option with a serious high-talent "big athletic big" as a first big option.

Thank you, Ash. You described what I'm thinking of perfectly! Well said.

[dkbaseball]

Quite honestly, I was thinking earlier today before I got the news that I hoped he didn't come here. He's a one-year player who would set back the development of four-year players Zoubek, Thomas and Czyz while he's here and taking so many post minutes. If Zoubek and Thomas make some progress -- and I really have never understood the pessimism hereabouts about them -- and King can contribute a bit of post defense, there will be plenty of talent on hand to make a run at the NC next year. And possibly this year as well.

And when has Duke ever won a lot with an athletic big? Laettner wasn't , nor Ferry or Alarie. Brand, Boozer and Williams were very strong, but not eye-poppingly athletic by any means. Duke needs a very active four man, such as Grant. But Shane proved that you can be sufficiently active in that role without necessarily being super athletic.

[newbdisapain]

Yes, missing GM hurts as the number 1 ranked prospect almost always is a very good player. We do have a roster of solid players, and if Lance has spent time in the weight room, he should be less foul inclined and solid for us. LT has mucho heart and hopefully has been able to add strength.
Unfortunately, I suspect that the injury to BZ will limit him this year, but barring further injury, he should be ready to help in 08-09.
I am in favor of burly, see Brand and the Landlord, but you go with who you get and we have the talent to be good for next several years without regard to whether we get any recruits this year other than the Polish Pogo stick.

[smvalkyries]

I really don't know what is going on at Georgetown now but when I lived in DC long long ago when JT#1 was coach the G-town basketballers had there own dorm and classroom and courses and were rarely ever seen on the actual G-town campus and virtually never in normal classes? Hopefully that has changed by now. Georgetown itself is a quality school I just wonder if the basketball team actually attends the academic part of the school?

[jimsumner]

RE: Zoubek. He is 100% recovered from his injury. He still has a ways to go before his conditioning has returned. But Duke expects him to be a significant contributor this year, maybe a starter.

The Duke coaches most emphatically feel that Zoubek is going to be a very good player at Duke.

[Uncle Drew]

I know there's a potential melt-down about to happen, and this is a certainly a disappointing twist. But disaster is a strong word. This is going to sound like a rationalization, but here are some facts about why this is not a "disaster."

1) The Class of 2008 is historically bad. Monroe is a very good player, but it's not like Duke just lost the next Kevin Durant. Recruiting rankings don't have the benefit of context -- Monroe might not have cracked the top-10 in several other classes.

2) Monroe does have size though, which (to me) was his biggest appeal. But that won't be as big an issue if A) Singler proves he can play inside B) Zoubek develops the way people expect by the time he's a junior C) Thomas continues to get stronger and D) Czyz can give Duke anything. Really, it cuts Duke's margin for errors significantly and means Duke's current players must progress. But, that's certainly a possibility.

3) Duke can go hard after bigs in the talent-rich Class of 2009. Long-term, that might be a blessing.

Again, this is disappointing, but there are enough pieces in place to avoid this being a "disaster."

Hate to disagree with you Jumbo, I rarely do. But this is a HUGE disaster for Duke and I think we all know it down deep inside. I've seen us all discussing this upcomming season and everyone has been worried about the center / power forward positions. But we've all been thinking if we could make it through this season at least we had help coming into Duke in the form of Monroe. Now that carpet has been yanked out from under our feet. Not as late in the season as Patterson, but late enough where any centers of value are left. Granted the over all class is weak but I'd rather have a number one rated center from a bad class than no center at all. I'm sure the Duke and LSU coaching staff are both in shock. But I guess it shows how much recruiting annalysts actually know.

Man after finally getting to watch Duke play football on TV for the first time in God knows how long. (And watching them knock out the opposing QB even!) Then watching them get torn apart like a pitt bull at a Michael Vick party, this SUCKS. I am actually depressed now, where's my bottle of tequilla!!!!!!

[pfrduke]

Maybe the word BIG isn't emphasized enough when we say athletic big. What I mean is maybe more a "big athletic big," and big doesn't mean tall, but strong and powerful. No one would consider Josh powerful. And Kyle Singler certainly has never had the word "power" attached to him. Obviously Lance isn't powerful. But the guys we have missed on are certain big shouldered, large bicep "big athletic bigs." I think that burly power is essential to a winning basketball program.

I do think that by his junior year Brian Zoubek will be decent enough to play. Heck, he might be okay this year, who knows? But as of now I would much rather have him as a second big option with a serious high-talent "big athletic big" as a first big option.

Just to quibble, Brandan Wright isn't exactly "big shouldered, large bicep" powerful. He was athletic as all get out, could leap and run with the best of them, and was extremely effective as a post scorer. But he wasn't "BIG" to use your terms. He was more like a better version of Lance Thomas - same mold of player, one just had more success last year.

Am I disappointed Monroe decided to go elsewhere? Sure. Do I think it's the end of the world? No. All it does it put pressure on Zoubek, Thomas, Singler, and Czyz to improve and perform. All these guys are high profile recruits who have obvious talent. If all mature and progress to their potential, we'll have an excellent interior game, to complement a great collection of guards/wings.

[Uncle Drew]

Just to quibble, Brandan Wright isn't exactly "big shouldered, large bicep" powerful. He was athletic as all get out, could leap and run with the best of them, and was extremely effective as a post scorer. But he wasn't "BIG" to use your terms. He was more like a better version of Lance Thomas - same mold of player, one just had more success last year.

Am I disappointed Monroe decided to go elsewhere? Sure. Do I think it's the end of the world? No. All it does it put pressure on Zoubek, Thomas, Singler, and Czyz to improve and perform. All these guys are high profile recruits who have obvious talent. If all mature and progress to their potential, we'll have an excellent interior game, to complement a great collection of guards/wings.

And if I hit the winning numbers for powerball tonight, my retirement portfolio won't look like a malnourished crystal meth addict. (Sorry I started drinking the tequilla, it makes me mean and sarcastic.) I envy your optimism pfr, I wish I could look at the glass as half full. But the next two seasons are going to be played without a "safety net" now. And all those if's you mention don't happen, Duke is for in a long couple of seasons. We all remember having Greg Newton at center for a couple of years and how frustrating that was. God I hope Zoubek and Lance pull it off or it could make the Newton years look like the wonder years.

[Indoor66]

Pessimism about Duke Basketball is a non-win additude. Duke will be fine. We will compete at the highest level. No one player makes or breaks Duke. I have no doubt the coaches have other targets for 08 and 09 - that, guess what, they haven't told us about. Who knew about Olek 6 months ago?

[Johnny B]

I understand that ranking players in upcoming recruiting classes frequently doesn't translate to actual performance at college. Therefore I don't think one player not choosing Duke is a reason for depression to set in. However, I do wonder whether Duke is now less succesful in attracting higher ranked athletes than in previous years. I don't have that data, but after reading this board for a few years, I know someone out there must have that information.

If the premise is correct and we are less succesful at recruiting, the question is why? Could this be due to Coach K's Team USA efforts? I understand that the hours these coaches put in is enormous and there is only so many hours in a week. There must, rationally, be less time spent working with Duke, if any time at all is spent on the national team. Or could this be fallout? Perceptions of Duke created by the lacrosse affair whereby, unfairly, Duke was portrayed as a white, elitist, and racist institution. It may not matter that the Lacrosse players were innocent and, indeed, were the real victims, it's just that impressions can last.

Thoughts?

[jimsumner]

Below are the consensus rankings of high school players in the last two classes. Hard to find much evidence of slippage.

Lance Thomas showed considerable promise last season. He needs more confidence and more consistency and I expect we'll see both this season. But performances like Air Force and the first BC game are reasons for optimism.


http://home.nc.rr.com/rsci/RSCI_100_PostSeason_2006.htm

http://home.nc.rr.com/rsci/RSCI_100_Final_2007.htm