Phase IV - 2016-2017 Season (Miami - Unc)

[superdave]

In honor of one peaceful transfer of power, I am humbly accepting the Phase Mantle from NashvilleDevil who wrote Phase III. Phase IV goes from the Miami game tomorrow to the first Unc game on February 9th. In the last phase, we lost three conference road games and won two conference home games for a 2-3 record. We lost senior captain Amile Jefferson and Coach K. There are a lot of things going on around this team.

Health – This team needs Amile Jefferson back to reach its ceiling. We have every reason to believe he will be back soon, hopefully on the early side of this phase. We do not have further details on Coach K’s absence, but we do not really expect him back this phase.

One of the reasons we need Amile back is because Harry Giles is still rounding into basketball form, after 18 months off from competition, and because Marques Bolden seems out of fitness, and often out of position, after his early season injury. I do not know of other injuries ongoing that may cause a player to miss a game, but please chime in if I am missing something. This team is snake-bit. We need to get healthy and avoid further injuries. We need some reps together as a team to even form a rotation and begin thinking about developing chemistry.

Road Woes – We have lost our first three ACC road games. Here are the road records the last several years, first three games and season –

2016 2-1; 5-5
2015 2-1; 6-2
2014 1-2; 4-5
2013 1-2; 5-4

So an 0-3 start kinda stinks. We know the ACC is really good this season, and two eventual national champions struggled out of the gate (1-2 in 2010). This phase has road games at Wake and at Notre Dame. Wake is 2-4 in conference play; Notre Dame is 5-1. Notre Dame sounds like a tough one, but Wake likely will be too if this team is missing Amile and does not get something out of Giles, Bolden, Jeter. 1-1 on the road this phase would be better than ok. 2-0 would be a corner turned for this squad.

Grayson Allen, Point Guard – Grayson moved to the point after sitting out the Blacksburg game. In the four games since the move, Coach K’s last shuffle before his absence, Allen has 26 assists and 15 turnovers (1.73 ratio). On the season he’s at 68 assists to 35 turnovers (1.94). The team looked alive and dominant vs GT, but disorganized vs FSU. Allen has averaged 31.5 minutes the last four games, which suggests Capel is limiting his minutes more than you would expect. He’s being spelled by Frank Jackson at the point at times.

Qualitatively the team is more dynamic with Grayson as playmaker in chief. I am hopeful he can play to his strengths and get open looks for everyone while still scoring at a really good clip. It’s been a mixed bag so far, but I like it and I think the coaches are likely to stick with GA at PG. The only other option I would explore is Luke at the 1, in a Scheyer like move. But I do not know how likely this is at this point. Allen’s ability to distribute and get the frontcourt the ball in good position and to find open shooters is directly linked to this team hitting its ceiling this season.

Big vs Small – Tatum has played at the 4 a lot because our frontcourt has not produced. He presents a matchup nightmare vs some teams, but not against others. FSU made Tatum look small and he was ineffective for most of the game. Giles had one really good stint of play vs GT but has been a step slow, understandably, in his short season. Jeter and Bolden have not been big contributors at all. Frontcourt minutes are up for grabs with Amile out, but that rotation is going to shorten when he comes back.

I personally think a frontcourt lineup of Giles, Jefferson and Tatum is our best bet for heavy minutes. The +/- sample size is so small that I just don’t think it tells us anything. Giles has played 93 minutes on the season and is -1; Bolden has played 70 minutes and is +24; Jeter has played 238 minutes and is +83.

A bigger lineup should allow rim protection and better defensive rebounding. But will the coaches go big at the expense of switching defense, icing screens and offensive efficiency? Will this team start playing alternative defenses to get out of a rut? And if so, does that mean we go bigger or smaller?

We know we are going to see a fair amount of small ball with Coach K, especially late in games. But will Capel give Bolden and Jeter enough minutes to prove themselves and to earn a spot in Coach K’s rotation? I don’t know, but it is iffy. Will DeLaurier wiggle his way in there for certain matchups? It is wide open for the next few weeks, but small ball will likely be big for this squad come March.

Gimmicks/Changes/Overhaul – Coach K has thrown in some wrinkles in past seasons to get the team playing better. We saw the platoon system for a few games in 2014, a zone in 2015 and Scheyer moved to point in 2009 after Smith got concussed. We have already seen Grayson move to playmaker this year (playmaker rather than point guard?). Will we see anything further this year?

I’d love to see a press for stretches that includes DeLaurier and Tatum’s length and hops. I’d love to see Tatum at the top of a 1-3-1 zone the same way Ingram was used last season at times. I’d love to see us play man, zone, press, trap all within the same game, every game. I think switching things up keeps the team focused on D. Could we see something else I have not mentioned? So much is up in the air; nothing would surprise me the rest of the way.

Ceiling – Given we have our coach out, our captain and best defender out, and only have 13 regular season games left, it may be hard for this team to ever reach its ceiling. But the talent is there and we all trust Coach K because we have seen him do it before. What would it take for this team to hit on all cylinders?

We need to shoot better from 3. Grayson and Matt have slumped from outside some and the team is shooting .367 from 3. That has to improve given our guard heavy offense. We need inside scoring from Giles, Jeter, Bolden (10.1 ppg combined). We need Tatum to stop taking long 2’s and turnarounds. We need Amile back (duh). We need a set rotation so that chemistry can build. It is tough and it is very possible. What else needs to improve?

Go Duke!

[Saratoga2]

agree that chemistry is important and that the rotation needs to stabilize to allow that to happen. I prefer Grayson at point, Luke at SG, Jayson at SF, Amile at PF and Harry at C (really another PF). There is room for Matt and Frank to come off the bench while it is not clear how best to handle the subs in the front court. Neither Marques or Chase have distinguished themselves to date.


Getting open three point shots for our top shooters will be difficult against good defensive teams. Luke is being closely guarded and our front court hasn't been much of a threat so no double teams required there. Maybe Harry can get going and with Amile back the team can pose and offensive threat at multiple positions


Looking forward to better team defense in this phase. Without it, our record will not be up to expectations.

[Troublemaker]

Great Phase post, superdave! Thanks for setting the stage for the next few games.

[DukieInBrasil]

sorry to be a nerd, but isn't this Phase IV?

[kAzE]

sorry to be a nerd, but isn't this Phase IV?

Yep: http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...gh-Louisville)

[budwom]

There are so many factors at play regarding our woes that only the Sperry Univac could calculate how this will sort itself out.

I kind of hope for an iterative process...first K comes back, providing the leadership we need.
Amile comes back, anchoring our (now woeful) defense. He is now, and probably for the future of the team, indispensable.

Harry continues to improve, and in a major way.
Tatum gets back to more team ball (see return of K, above)

Either Bolden or Jeter settles in to provide depth in the middle.

Each of these seems quite possible...the question is, can we get all of them?
I still think we can.

[Kedsy]

Nice job, Superdave. You've hit the high points and asked the questions that needed to be asked.

My only additional question would be, supposing the coaches do not go with the wrinkles/gimmicks you propose, how will our defense evolve this phase? Obviously Amile's return is a key to that, but even once he's back we have a lot of ground to cover, so to speak, on defense.

We do not have further details on Coach K’s absence, but we do not really expect him back this phase.

Wait, is this new news? I thought K was supposed to be back soon, maybe even against Miami? Is that no longer considered accurate?

[MartyClark]

Good job Super Dave. I agree with everything you suggest.

I can't remember a season so filled with injury, controversy, and uncertainty. It has been an interesting ride. This could be one of the most disappointing seasons in Duke basketball history or one of the best. I honestly have no idea.

I think Grayson's performance at point guard is better than the statistics suggest. It is not his natural position but, IMHO, he has done a good job. I'd like to see Duke set a few high screens for him to scramble the defense and, potentially, lead to some better drives and dishes.

I was privileged to go to the game at Louisville, I'm also heading to the game at Miami. This team is fun, disappointing, and promising. Sometimes all within a couple of minutes.

Go Duke.

[superdave]

Nice job, Superdave. You've hit the high points and asked the questions that needed to be asked.

My only additional question would be, supposing the coaches do not go with the wrinkles/gimmicks you propose, how will our defense evolve this phase? Obviously Amile's return is a key to that, but even once he's back we have a lot of ground to cover, so to speak, on defense.



Wait, is this new news? I thought K was supposed to be back soon, maybe even against Miami? Is that no longer considered accurate?

I thought Coach K was supposed to be out a month, which is right around the time of the Unc game. I could be wrong, but that is what my understanding has been.

[CDu]

I thought Coach K was supposed to be out a month, which is right around the time of the Unc game. I could be wrong, but that is what my understanding has been.

I think it was "up to a month", but no definitive timetable. There have even been recent rumblings about a possible return tomorrow.

[budwom]

I think it was "up to a month", but no definitive timetable. There have even been recent rumblings about a possible return tomorrow.

yeah, when it comes to Duke "info", and I use the term very loosely, it's imperative to read carefully. The original statement (still on goduke.com) says he'd be out
"up to a month." Therefore rumors he'll be back soon (very soon) make sense.

[Bob Green]

Good job, superdave!

Health – This team needs Amile Jefferson back to reach its ceiling.

There is no singular bigger issue for Phase IV than the return of Amile Jefferson. Will he return? When will he return?

Grayson Allen, Point Guard – Grayson moved to the point after sitting out the Blacksburg game.

Grayson Allen's development quarterbacking the offense is huge. If Allen excels, Duke will excel. Oversimplification? Perhaps, but not much of one. The team needs Allen to be a distributor and a scorer. Someone has to run the offense, without a pure point guard option, Allen is the best option.

A third issue all Duke fans should be keeping an eye on is the freshmen:

Jayson Tatum is a solid starter who needs some refinement moving forward in the areas of shot selection and defensive intensity. Tatum has the tools, length and quickness, to be an elite defender so it is frustrating that he seems to coast on defense at times.

Frank Jackson needs to be more consistent. Inconsistency isn't surprising in a freshman so I do not see this as a problem, I see it as a natural work in progress. The question is does he develop consistency this season or not until next season.

Harry Giles has demonstrated exceptional low post offense skills. His timing (touch) is off due to rust but he should continue to improve on the offensive end of the court game-by-game. The defensive end of the court is where big improvement is needed and where improvement will probably occur slower. Giles appears a half step slow, which results in him not being able to achieve position with his feet. The subsequent use of his hands on defense results in fouls. I expect to see improvement from Giles throughout Phase IV.

Marques Bolden has not played enough minutes to be a factor. First and foremost, he needs to get healthy.

[duketaylor]

Regarding Giles, I would think a solid week of practice will pay dividends tonight. Tough game, but I think we'll eek out a W.

GO DEVILS!!

[budwom]

Regarding Giles, I would think a solid week of practice will pay dividends tonight. Tough game, but I think we'll eek out a W.

GO DEVILS!!

yeah, we're nine point favorites which I think we'll beat if Amile is back and won't if he isn't (but could still grab the eeking win you expect)

[superdave]

Regarding Giles, I would think a solid week of practice will pay dividends tonight. Tough game, but I think we'll eek out a W.

GO DEVILS!!

yeah, we're nine point favorites which I think we'll beat if Amile is back and won't if he isn't (but could still grab the eeking win you expect)

A week off to rest and practice is great. Loose rims in Cameron are usually good for us. A home game is always better for freshmen. Hopefully the freshmen have grown some this week. That is a big key.

Confidence is big tonight, and each game going forward. If we get Amile back and the young guys can build on each outing, that is a path toward chemistry.

[superdave]

I saw one possession of press with Tatum up front and one of zone. Both in the disastrous first half. What do I know?

Man to man is the calling card and this squad is going to play it well or ride the bench.

[Troublemaker]

So, Miami marks the second game in a row now that our primary technique for defending ball screens is using the hedge instead of the ice. Hedging, of course, is what Duke had always done up until the past couple of seasons when Coach K was inspired by Thibs to ice the ball screens.

Why the change? Probably something real simple like we've discovered that our big men are better / more comfortable with forward and side-to-side movements than with the retreating movements you need to master with ice. Marques was excellent with his hedging and recovery against Miami, and we can win a lot of games with him playing that well.

[Bob Green]

Marques Bolden has not played enough minutes to be a factor. First and foremost, he needs to get healthy.

I'm not going to overreact to 20 minutes of solid basketball, there is enough recency bias ongoing in the Miami Post Game Thread, but Marques Bolden certainly looked healthy last night, in the 2nd half, against Miami. Let's see if he can repeat it tomorrow night against NCSU. That would be a trend and something to talk about.

[budwom]

yeah, I agree that Bolden's lateral movement was markedly improved...no small thing.

[Rich]

I'm not going to overreact to 20 minutes of solid basketball, there is enough recency bias ongoing in the Miami Post Game Thread, but Marques Bolden certainly looked healthy last night, in the 2nd half, against Miami. Let's see if he can repeat it tomorrow night against NCSU. That would be a trend and something to talk about.

He certainly seemed to "get" the defense last night, which can't be unlearned, so that's a good thing. In addition to being quick and smart, he was really playing big last night. Whether he can keep up that same level of energy hedging and recovering over 40 minutes is another thing. Unfortunately, Giles still seems to be behind defensively, whether because he's not getting it so quickly or because he's still playing tentatively due to injury, is tough to tell. But boy can he run the court.

Based on last night it looks like we have an offensive unit (Giles/Allen/Kennard) and a defensive unit (Bolden/Jackson/Jones) with Tatum and Jefferson cogs in both. Who starts? Who comes off the bench? And do we mix it up or establish these "teams"? Good stuff to work out.