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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by jipops View Post
    I'm predicting we go 8-5 the rest of the way. That would put us at 22-9. We're in with that. The seed would be pretty bad though. It would not be a first round game to look forward to.
    that's probably a fair assessment.
    1200. DDMF.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Even if we are a 6 seed (which I don't think is going to happen, but it could), we would still be only 4 wins away from the Final Four. Syracuse did it just last year. Heck, UNC went to the Final Four one year when I think they had 10 or 11 regular season losses and were clearly on the bubble. UConn won the title after finishing 5th in the conference and had to win their conference tournament to avoid the NIT. VCU went to the Final Four on a year when they probably SHOULDN'T have gotten an invitation at all.

    Point is that anything can happen. if a team gels at the right time, it can play far above its seeding. Especially a team like this one that is loaded with talent but hasn't had time (because of injuries, etc) to put it all together just yet.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Even if we are a 6 seed (which I don't think is going to happen, but it could), we would still be only 4 wins away from the Final Four. Syracuse did it just last year. Heck, UNC went to the Final Four one year when I think they had 10 or 11 regular season losses and were clearly on the bubble. UConn won the title after finishing 5th in the conference and had to win their conference tournament to avoid the NIT. VCU went to the Final Four on a year when they probably SHOULDN'T have gotten an invitation at all.

    Point is that anything can happen. if a team gels at the right time, it can play far above its seeding. Especially a team like this one that is loaded with talent but hasn't had time (because of injuries, etc) to put it all together just yet.
    Yep. Playing well and having good health heading into mid-March is the most important thing for this team. We can do a lot of damage no matter what seed we get if those things are true.

    That said, I don't as of yet rule out getting a high seed. We need to win these two upcoming home games and get on a roll.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Point is that anything can happen. if a team gels at the right time, it can play far above its seeding. Especially a team like this one that is loaded with talent but hasn't had time (because of injuries, etc) to put it all together just yet.
    I wasn't going to post in this thread because I do view it as a negative, Chicken Little thread, but rsvman makes such an excellent point about injuries and timing that I am compelled to acknowledge him. Reputation points sent your way, sir!

    Al Featherston has an excellent article posted on the front page on this very topic:

    http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...uke-basketball

    Here is the money quote:

    But it’s still too early to give up on this team (as many DBR posters seem to have done). This team could still win the national championship.
    Let's have some faith folks!
    Bob Green

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Carolina Beach

    Nothing assured

    I don't consider this to be a negative thread.

    Call me overly cautious but each year that conference play begins I think about winning enough games to get in the tournament. Things can turn quickly in either direction.

    The ironic part is that last year I worried about us winning enough games to get in.. Coach K did too.. We were so thin & after losing Amile..I held my breath that we would not lose another player & fortunately we did not & I think last year was a really good year coming off a Natty & losing all the players we did. This year with all the talent we were a given to be in & a high seed..Final Four bound.. But everything that could go wrong seems to have done just that.

    In 66 Duke won their third ACC tourney in 4 years..along with 3 trips to the final four & for many of us a Bob Verga illness away from that possibly being the first Natty. We did not win another ACC Championship until the magic of 78 & had a very bad period of some bad teams.

    In 94 we played in the National Championship & the next year the infamous 95 season where we finished in last place in the conference.

    Couple of examples of how things can turn.

    I know we are spoiled by success...Please note I said we.. What seed we may be is the last thing on my mind right now. I just am hoping we get well..right the ship..& get in the tournament.

    10-8 in the conference would be good with me right now & everyone healthy going into tourney play.

    Regardless of how the season plays out I am most grateful for all the success we have enjoyed over the years. I will remain that way..

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by mattman91 View Post
    its over.
    Yes, I have moved on to recruiting 2020 anxiety and proactively looking for names that make good beer puns.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by wsb3 View Post
    I don't consider this to be a negative thread.

    Call me overly cautious but each year that conference play begins I think about winning enough games to get in the tournament. Things can turn quickly in either direction.
    Yup.

    A tournament berth is not a birthright. This is a tough conference in bad years, a crazy tough conference in years like this. All road games are tough, and it is imperative to hold home court each time out.

    By the same token, I'm not sure there are many -- or even any -- who have given up the way Al F. states. Maybe I just skip those posts though.

    The sky is the limit for this team. Still. But right now, we are tied for tenth place in the conference. So far, i would say that we won the two home games we should have won; lost two road games that are not unreasonable (although looked pretty bad at Louisville); and lost a road game that would have been nice to win in Blacksburg. End of the world? Certainly not. Indicia of a juggernaut? Certainly not either.

    We get a week off to prepare to host Miami, then games hosting State; @ Wake, @ ND. both the home games and the road games are Sat/Mon turnarounds. Need to hold home service this week, then we have two road games of the sort that we will need to win if we are going to get a good seed. But all of those games are going to be tough, and we will get all of their best shots.

  8. #28
    I didn't want to start a separate thread for this; does anyone have a list of the first and 2nd round sites based upon the regions they are tied to?

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by subzero02 View Post
    I didn't want to start a separate thread for this; does anyone have a list of the first and 2nd round sites based upon the regions they are tied to?
    Those sites aren't tied to the regions (unless something has changed that I'm not aware of). So Duke could be placed in the MidWest region and still play in Greenville for the Rounds of 64 and 32, for example.

    Here are the list of sites.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Those sites aren't tied to the regions (unless something has changed that I'm not aware of). So Duke could be placed in the MidWest region and still play in Greenville for the Rounds of 64 and 32, for example.

    Here are the list of sites.
    Each site features 2 4 teams pods from 2 different regions... are the 2 regional associations for each first and second round site not made until the brackets are released?

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by wsb3 View Post
    I don't consider this to be a negative thread.

    Call me overly cautious but each year that conference play begins I think about winning enough games to get in the tournament. Things can turn quickly in either direction.

    The ironic part is that last year I worried about us winning enough games to get in.. Coach K did too.. We were so thin & after losing Amile..I held my breath that we would not lose another player & fortunately we did not & I think last year was a really good year coming off a Natty & losing all the players we did. This year with all the talent we were a given to be in & a high seed..Final Four bound.. But everything that could go wrong seems to have done just that.

    In 66 Duke won their third ACC tourney in 4 years..along with 3 trips to the final four & for many of us a Bob Verga illness away from that possibly being the first Natty. We did not win another ACC Championship until the magic of 78 & had a very bad period of some bad teams.

    In 94 we played in the National Championship & the next year the infamous 95 season where we finished in last place in the conference.

    Couple of examples of how things can turn.

    I know we are spoiled by success...Please note I said we.. What seed we may be is the last thing on my mind right now. I just am hoping we get well..right the ship..& get in the tournament.

    10-8 in the conference would be good with me right now & everyone healthy going into tourney play.

    Regardless of how the season plays out I am most grateful for all the success we have enjoyed over the years. I will remain that way..
    EXACTLY. I started this thread. It is Not negative. Rather, it's a view of do we NEED to do and what CAN we accomplish?

    To assume we always make the tournament is a thing of entitlement. No one is guaranteed anything. No one. I am looking at you 2010 NIT UNC and (year?) NIT Kentucky ! And this team we have honestly has the most 'spread' of any team in recent history. No Amile. No improvement on D. We could miss the tourney. Amile returns to health (PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE) and the team gels? Final four potential. On the evil side UNC is a Joel Berry injury away from not being a serious contender... Injuries can change anything (Kenyon Martin). No one is guaranteed anything. Which is why we should really enjoy the good years - you see, this is a very positive thread.

    And I was just thinking out loud that at X level of wins (?) we get in the tourney ... At Y level we get a top 5 seed ... Etc

    Thank you to OldPhiKap and wsb3 for understanding. It's an issue of not feeling that something is a birthright. The 94/95 example is perfect. National Finalist in 94. No tourney in 95. And that was before One and Done !!!! Now it's even harder to keep team continuity after a great year. Back in the 90s you could win a title and only lose your upperclassmen

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by subzero02 View Post
    Each site features 2 4 teams pods from 2 different regions... are the 2 regional associations for each first and second round site not made until the brackets are released?
    I believe so, because they have to wait and see where the protected seeds land in the bracket.

    For example, last season, the Brooklyn site was used to serve Villanova (#2 seed, South region) +3 teams and WVU (#3 seed, East region) +3 teams.

  13. #33
    Quick question. What does the committee use to select and seed teams for the tournament now? RPI I think? Do they still look at last 10 games? AP rank?

    Thanks for the help - I can't recall exactly. Though I think RPI is a big one and Kenpom isn't officially used ?

    Thx

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    Quick question. What does the committee use to select and seed teams for the tournament now? RPI I think? Do they still look at last 10 games? AP rank?

    Thanks for the help - I can't recall exactly. Though I think RPI is a big one and Kenpom isn't officially used ?

    Thx
    whatever they want, pretty much. It's generally recognized that they don't use RPI directly, but only record v rpi25, record vrpi50.

    They do have access to other rankings if they want (KP, SAG).

    They've been clear that they consider recent wins, but also clear that they consider overall resume. AP rank has no bearing, but rarely is the media so far off that a ranked team is left out of the field.

    But in essence, they can do whatever they want, and there is almost assuredly a way to justify it, even if that criteria changes from team to team and year to year.

    Seeding is done up front...they rank all teams 1-68. It's generally said that the top 2 seeds get their location of preference (which used to just be closest site, but teams now have some input to site preference), and the third and fourth seeds help balance the overall strength of the top four. It seems, however, that in previous years they've bent towards site preference for the third seed...which can lead to some nasty brackets with a tough 1-2-3 (given that doesn't matter as much to the 1 seed, since they can only play one of 2 and 3).

    After that, the other teams are slotted in using the S curve, with modifications made to adhere to the bracketing rules (teams from same conference can't meet before elite 8, unless too many, in which case they can't meet in first round, max 3 teams in a region (I think) from one conference, BYU can't play sunday...etc), which could involve moving a team up or down a line. I recall they said they try to move seeds around less than they used to after some pretty atrocious resseedings gave teams tougher or easier matchups.
    1200. DDMF.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, Va

    Mr. Featherston

    Excellent article and totally agree; sometimes I think some fans forget about the rough stretches. I remember them as the catalysts for some amazing turnarounds and successes. I hold great hope for this team. GO DEVILS!!

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by duketaylor View Post
    Excellent article and totally agree; sometimes I think some fans forget about the rough stretches. I remember them as the catalysts for some amazing turnarounds and successes. I hold great hope for this team. GO DEVILS!!
    2015 -- a couple of really ugly losses and the loss of Rasheed; switch to zone at Louisville; regroup and really click at the end. National Championship.

    1991 -- get absolutely annihilated by Carolina in the ACC Final -- twenty point loss -- go out and win the NCAA, including epic wins over UNLV and Roy's Kansas team.

    I imagine there are some who do not remember when the ACC was like this every night. This is a brutal conference this year, reminiscent of the mid-80's. Every road game is a challenge. Every home win is precious. Not all losses are by less than five points; sometimes you get smacked silly.

    Enjoy the ride. If we get healthy and hit at the right time, we're fine. If not, well -- we're not anyway.

    Carpe Diem. Go to Hellius Caroliniass. Let's go Duke!

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by subzero02 View Post
    Each site features 2 4 teams pods from 2 different regions... are the 2 regional associations for each first and second round site not made until the brackets are released?
    I think you have to be in the Top 3 or 4 in a region to get preference, regardless of the region itself. So Duke could be in the West region, but still competing with UNC, WVU, UVA, and maybe South Carolina for Greensboro.

    Duke as a #4 seed would still be very dangerous, especially if you can get slated into the New York region with Nova (probably). That's probably preferred to San Jose (UCLA, Gonzaga, or Oregon), KC (KU or Baylor), or Memphis (UK).

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    I think you have to be in the Top 3 or 4 in a region to get preference, regardless of the region itself. So Duke could be in the West region, but still competing with UNC, WVU, UVA, and maybe South Carolina for Greensboro.

    Duke as a #4 seed would still be very dangerous, especially if you can get slated into the New York region with Nova (probably). That's probably preferred to San Jose (UCLA, Gonzaga, or Oregon), KC (KU or Baylor), or Memphis (UK).
    Agree with the preference. Impact of time zone on athletic performance is under appreciated but research shows it matters a lot. This could matter if a west coast team makes the final 4 by the way.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA

    Still the optimist

    The discussion has been about making the tournament but we do have to examine the unbalanced schedule and see how Duke ended up at 2-3.

    The three losses are all on the road and two of them to top 15 teams. The other game against VT is a bit of an anomaly, VT is playing great and Duke was in a bit of disarray at the time.

    So, what record would the winner of the ACC have and what about the top 4 who get byes in the ACC tournament.

    ND has no losses and FSU & UNC each have a loss and Duke plays ND, UNC twice and FSU at home so Duke can still catch ND and FSU since.... FSU still has two games against ND and a game against Louisville as well as road games at Clemson, Miami and Pittsburgh. ND still has the two FSU games and also plays UVA, UNC and Louisville.

    If Duke is aiming for an ACC tournament bye then they don't have to win "all" of these games just a few of them and the other teams will beat each other up.

    My guess is the ACC champion will have 5 losses (13-5) and the 4th place team 7 losses (11-7).

    Here is Duke's schedule and my path to the needed 13 wins.

    Miami (Home) W
    NC State (Home) W
    Wake Forest (Away) W
    Notre Dame (Away) L (ugh)
    Pittsburgh (Home) W
    North Carolina (Home) W
    Clemson (Home) W
    Virginia (Away) L (ugh)
    Wake Forest (Home) W
    Syracuse (Away) W
    Miami (Away) W
    Florida State (Home) W
    North Carolina (Away) W

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    The discussion has been about making the tournament but we do have to examine the unbalanced schedule and see how Duke ended up at 2-3.

    The three losses are all on the road and two of them to top 15 teams. The other game against VT is a bit of an anomaly, VT is playing great and Duke was in a bit of disarray at the time.

    So, what record would the winner of the ACC have and what about the top 4 who get byes in the ACC tournament.

    ND has no losses and FSU & UNC each have a loss and Duke plays ND, UNC twice and FSU at home so Duke can still catch ND and FSU since... FSU still has two games against ND and a game against Louisville as well as road games at Clemson, Miami and Pittsburgh. ND still has the two FSU games and also plays UVA, UNC and Louisville.

    If Duke is aiming for an ACC tournament bye then they don't have to win "all" of these games just a few of them and the other teams will beat each other up.

    My guess is the ACC champion will have 5 losses (13-5) and the 4th place team 7 losses (11-7).

    Here is Duke's schedule and my path to the needed 13 wins.

    Miami (Home) W
    NC State (Home) W
    Wake Forest (Away) W
    Notre Dame (Away) L (ugh)
    Pittsburgh (Home) W
    North Carolina (Home) W
    Clemson (Home) W
    Virginia (Away) L (ugh)
    Wake Forest (Home) W
    Syracuse (Away) W
    Miami (Away) W
    Florida State (Home) W
    North Carolina (Away) W
    If we do this and get to the conference finals on Saturday, we are probably a #1 seed.

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