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  1. #1

    Luke Winn's top 15 backcourts

    How does Duke not have a top 15 backcourt?????

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mul...content.1.html

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    While we are loaded with talent at Shooting Guard and Wing Guard, our PG is unproven. Paulus is coming off an injury riddled second season and Nolan Smith is a Freshman.

    I'm not saying I agree with this assessment, just that this is the conventional wisdom in regard to our backcourt.
    Bob Green

  3. #3
    what a joke

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham
    I was not surprised to see Duke omitted from this list. The fact that we were a first round knockout last year should've tipped you off. I mean, if you're Luke Winn, and you saw how Duke finished last year, would you honestly put our backcourt as one of the top 15 in America? Given the overall season Paulus had (not just the last 10 games) and the way Scheyer faded towards the end of the season, I don't see how you could expect Duke to make this list.

    Duke has one of the deepest backcourts in America, but don't mistake that with one of the best. Demarcus is a steady constant, but I think any CBB writer in America will tell you that Paulus, Scheyer and Henderson all have a lot to prove this year. Paulus needs to put together a consistent season, Scheyer needs to take that next step as both a scorer and defender and finish the year as strong as he started, and after a freshman year of flashes, Henderson is officially on the clock to realize his ridiculously promising potential.

    Basically, as deep as our backcourt is, it's still largely unproven. Our backcourt is capable of making noise, but let's wait until January or so before declaring Duke to have the best of anything...

  5. #5
    I see what you are saying Bob. I was just shocked initially that we weren't at least around 10 or so. I wouldn't trade our backcourt for half of those teams. I guess it shows Mickey D's don't mean a whole lot. I bet we have more Big Macs at guard than any of these teams...

    Paulus, Scheyer, Smith, Nelson, Henderson

    Oh well, just some more added incentive for the Devils to prove the doubters wrong.
    Last edited by 6th Man; 10-09-2007 at 04:51 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    There are some very good backcourts in that list. Do I think our backcourt is going to step up this year and make that list a joke by the end of the season for not including Duke? Yeah. But I can defend the list AT THIS TIME.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    There are some very good backcourts in that list. Do I think our backcourt is going to step up this year and make that list a joke by the end of the season for not including Duke? Yeah. But I can defend the list AT THIS TIME.
    Completely agree. Also, I think the fact that Duke will play 3 guards most of the time (sometimes 4 probably) means we will see a ton of point production come out of our backcourt...not that that's news to anyone here.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by 6th Man View Post
    Oh well, just some more added incentive for the Devils to prove the doubters wrong.
    Being omitted from Luke Winn's Top 15 backcourts is added incentive for the players? Do you really think Jon Scheyer cares?

    I think Duke's backcourt is better than that of Davidson, Villanova, Texas, Michigan State, Louisville, and UNC. So I'd have us around 10ish for right now.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by 6th Man View Post
    How does Duke not have a top 15 backcourt?????

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mul...content.1.html
    I imagine UK may be asking the same question. Kentucky seems to parallel Duke with wing depth and shortage of front court guys, in UK Case only two seniors and a seldom used junior, the rest frosh and sophs.

    If Duke gets a chance to match up with Marquette in Maui, good test to see if they are improved.

    Winn could not win. If he had picked Duke big backlash.

    It would be interesting to know how Paulus was selected for elite PG camp this summer and how much of that training turns from potential into kinetic.

    I think when people hear back court they think more in terms of PG, than [PG-SG-WF combined], and in ACC the first 3 names that come to mind are Singletary, Rice and Lawson.

    FSU trio of Toney Douglas-Isaiah Swann-Jason Rich backed up by Ralph Mims in not too shabby either, and if MD had another proven guy to go with Hayes/Vasquez they would get some consideration.

    So in general ACC is pretty strong at PG/SG but four or five teams are going to struggle orienting a new PG into the talented ACC PG mix, though in many cases these are also four teams with a lot of non-PG returning depth: NC St, Clemson, GA Tech, and Miami, not the case for VA Tech who got more bad news.

    http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow...&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

    Bad news for VA Tech basketball. (Freshman Darrion Pellum is ineligible) That's the second freshman Seth Greenberg has lost to academics and the status of a third (J.T. Thompson) is still pending. (The Roanoke Times)

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Georgetown has Wallace and Sapp, with Rivers, Crawford, Freeman and Wright as reserves. That is as good as all but about five of the teams on that list.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    From California
    what i don't understand is, how can our preseason ranking be around 16 when our backcourt isn't in the top 15. Our frontcourt is definitely not in the top 30, so what is keeping our ranking around 16? Coaching? Backcourt depth? Kyle Singler?

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Cali-Duke View Post
    what i don't understand is, how can our preseason ranking be around 16 when our backcourt isn't in the top 15. Our frontcourt is definitely not in the top 30, so what is keeping our ranking around 16? Coaching? Backcourt depth? Kyle Singler?
    When Gary Parrish ranked by Shooterss and Wings, Nelson and Singler were listed with no Duke guys in bigs or points.

  13. #13
    I think Curry from Davidson is a great player, but overall if our backcourt can't compete with Davidson, it's going to be one long year. I would think Pocius(probably our odd man out in the rotation) would be a big contibutor at Davidson.

    I am really anxious to watch Nolan Smith play. I think he is just what the doctor ordered for this team. A very quick defensive oriented PG. We could have used him against Maynor last year for sure!

    I would love to see Smith, Nelson, Henderson, Thomas, and Singler on the floor for just a few minutes. That would be a pretty athletic squad that would probably be an ESPN highlight reel waiting to happen.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Western North Carolina

    Henderson

    I too was not surprised by Winn's list (not surprising if you are at all familiar with my posts).

    But, rather than thinking about how good our backcourt is, and why Winn should have included it, we should be thinking about the composition of said backcourt, at least from Winn's perspective.

    It is fairly obvious that Winn was working on a "traditional" backcourt makeup, that being a PG, a SG, and their backups. In the case of the teams running a 3 guard alignment, all three players are obviously guards, either true PGs, combos, or Pure SGs.

    I think the reason Duke did not make the list is that Winn does not consider Henderson to be a member of the backcourt. In his mind Henderson is almost definitely a small forward at Duke.

    So, when Winn considered Duke's backcourt, he likely included Paulus, Scheyer, Smith, Pocius, and very probably Nelson (some consider him a Swing player between SF and SG, but Luke probably considerd him a guard).

    I am not saying that Winn is wrong or right to exclude Henderson from the backcourt, but, if he did then this would clearly explain (and justify) Duke's exclusion.

    Without Henderson, who Winn probably considers to be a SF, thus not part of the backcourt, Duke's backcourt is good, but not elite. The potential is clearly present, but there are too many questions, eg:

    Can Paulus play a season like the last few games, will Scheyer improve, will Nelson bounce back from the injury, is Smith ready to contribute, and can Pocious be a consistent player?

    The answer to most of those questions is probably yes, but they are all valid questions in the preseason. With Henderson as a guard, Duke's potential and athleticism is far too great for them to be excluded from a top 15 list (and probably they would be top 10 or better). But without Hendo, the potential, while still very solid, is not enough to outweigh legitimate, lingering questions, as the season opens.

    Had the list gone to 16 or 17, Duke would be on it, even with Hendo not included, and the blurb would have stated that Duke had the potential to end the season much farther up the list.

    Patrick Yates

  15. #15

    Perimeter Players

    Winn does not appear to be consistent. In several cases, it appears that he includes a wing player along with the two guards. IMO, his ratings should be based on the set of perimeter players. On this basis, the Duke group of Paulus, Nelson, Scheyer, Henderson, Smith and Pocious is one of the top perimeter groups in the country. As far as perimeter players are concerned, I like Kansas, Washington State (he left off Harmeling), Memphis, Marquette, Oregon, Duke and UNC. Others who may come on strong, IMO, include Gonzaga (Pargo, Bouldin, Downs, Gurganious) and Syracuse (Devendorf, Harris, Flynn, Rautins).

    gw67

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    What is interesting is that Duke will most likely not make any preseason top-backcourt / top-frontcourt lists, yet we'll be talked about all year regarding all the talent that exists. We must not have nearly as much talent as a lot of other teams if we don't make these lists, huh? But you can bet that Duke will never be seen as having over-achieved no matter how favorable the season-ending results may be.

    I don't disagree with Duke being left off this top-backcourt list. But the typical non-Duke fan school of thought is 'they lack this, they lack that, but look at all that loaded talent!!'. Seems a bit contradictory.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Toledo
    I mean, if you're Luke Winn, and you saw how Duke finished last year, would you honestly put our backcourt as one of the top 15 in America?
    Absolutely not. Our starting backcourt played terrible down the stretch against VCU. Brick city on offense, and nowhere on defense. I love Jon just as much as the next guy, but I think he may have forgotten how to shoot the basketball in the final minutes. Dreadful, just dreadful. VCU had better, quicker guards that night. No question about it.

    Take the loss to VCU and add that with the four game losing streak late in February and you have a mediocre backcourt at best, at least in terms of the following year's preseason predictions. Does that mean our backcourt won't become a very, very good one once 2007-08 gets rolling? No. But, until they come out and prove themselves all over again, they are not going to get any respect, especially not from the general media who tends to dislike Duke so much to the exent that it's actually hate.
    Last edited by Cameron; 10-10-2007 at 01:59 PM.

  18. #18
    I agree with both of you Bob Green and Classof06, our point guard situation is iffy at best and new talent is unproven.

  19. #19
    I suspect that some posters are correct in concluding that writers like Winn were influenced by the swoon at the end of the season. If fact, during the past months the views of several of the posters toward the perimeter players have been influenced by the 4-8 record at the end of the season. Looking back at those twelve games, it seems to me that Coach K did all he could to put the best team on the floor. Paulus, though recovering from an injury, averaged over 37minutes/game during this period while Scheyer averaged over33 minutes/game while appearing to have heavy legs after a long freshmen season. Henderson averaged nearly 21 minutes/game and Nelson almost 32 minutes per game. These four players along with McRoberts played about 160 minutes a game during the last 12 games (This lineup, with Singler substituted for McRoberts, is often proposed as the best Duke lineup for the coming year). McClure and Thomas made up most of the difference.

    The interesting thing to me about the last 12 games was that the offensive stats for most of the players were not that different from their final season stats. Paulus carried the offensive load at 17.3 ppg and Henderson averaged 8.6 ppg, while Nelson and Scheyer were close to their season averages. McClure and Thomas disappeared offensively during these games.

    While the end of the season was painful, I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to the returning perimeter players. Paulus should be recovered from his injury, Scheyer and Henderson should be improved as sophs, Nelson should have a solid year, Smith has the potential to contribute as a freshman and Pocious can help if there is an injury. Very few teams have this quality depth and, hopefully, we will not get into a situation where we have to play Paulus nearly 38 mins/game. I expect the perimeter players to be the strength of the team this year.

    gw67

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Western North Carolina

    I agree

    GW is right about our perimeter. They should be the strength of our team this year.

    He is also right in saying that he expects them to improve, or at least be healthier this year.

    I suspect this is the crux of Winn's thinking. We EXPECT them to improve. Winn probably expects them to improve. However, all of the teams he listed are more proven than we are. There is less volatility with the other squads. Ours could end up better than up to 10 of those squads. But, and we have to admit it, that same volatility works downward. We could easily (one key injury or sophmore slump) be noticably worse than any of those teams, and a few others as well.

    I think the likelihood of us being better is higher, but Winn is probably scared of the worse part. Writers get really slammed for thinking a team will be better than they are, far more so than for thinking a team will be worse than they turn out to be.

    Given Duke's volatility, he chose to err on caution's side. Duke, though we love them all, is not a flawless team. Other writers will be down us before the season really gets going.

    Patrick Yates

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