MBB: Duke vs Louisville Pre-Game and In-Game Thread (noon, ESPN)

[flyingdutchdevil]

So pretty much just play UVA basketball and you'll win?

Gimme UVa defense over Duke defense any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I'll take Duke offense though...

[NSDukeFan]

Gimme UVa defense over Duke defense any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I'll take Duke offense though...

Except for a 10 minute stretch against Syracuse and Malachi Richardson?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Except for a 10 minute stretch against Syracuse and Malachi Richardson?

Or when Grayson has the ball with 10 sec left?

[ChillinDuke]

They want you to help off of those bigs. Their best offense is to draw your bigs away from their men, throw up an awful shot, and leave their big guys in good position for an offensive rebound and an easy stickback. If you want to play man and succeed, you've got to be able to stop penetration off the bounce, and if help is needed, it needs to get there before they get into/near the paint. Don't let them reach the lane off the dribble or you're toast. Their offensive efficiency is 47th, and probably 90% of that is due to a VERY good OR% and easy buckets they get from turnovers and in transition.

You only have to do 3 things to win:
1) Make them play a halfcourt game. Be patient offensively, don't turn it over, & GET BACK on defense
2) Keep them out of the paint and make them shoot jumpers
3) Keep them off the offensive glass

You do all three, and you win going away. Probably by double digits.

Oh, is that all?

- Chillin

[rasputin]

Oh, is that all?

- Chillin

And, if you hit greens in regulation and sink a bunch of 25-footers, you'll score well.

[NM Duke Fan]

It seems to me a big key here is just how much Giles and Bolden learned from the difficulties of the last game, what kind of progress has been made this week using film study and practice, and how much can they apply said lessons towards the Saturday very tough matchup. Also hope to see Chase once again have a good game, but with a few more made shots to keep building his offensive confidence. Hopefully the guards can find him in his limited sweet spot and help him gain some momentum, but within the flow of the game. Win or lose, this needs to be another step forward for team defense, especially in the paint.

[jv001]

You do realize Duke didn't do that against FSU, right? (At least not during the competitive portions. We may have extended when down big.)

There are like 3 copies of the game on youtube if you want to check for yourself.

The problem with the defense against the Noles was NOT that Duke pressured the ball far from the basket.

Actually, the team that DID extend their defense and was super aggressive in the passing lanes was FSU. They had easily the more aggressive of the two defenses.

People do realize that, right?

I told you that you know more about college basketball than I do. Maybe it just seemed like we were guarding FSU that far out. I guess the biggest problem on defense was defending the screen/pick in roll. That's where the freshmen did a poor job. We didn't help our defense with the way our offense was operating. Some poor shot selections, turnovers and lack of offensive rebounding. And yes I realize FSU was the team defending in a superior manner. Those guys can really move their feet and they are long and athletic. GoDuke!

[BandAlum83]

I would like Grayson to remember that he's an All-American and should score twenty points a game, in addition to six-to-eight assists. This "selflessness" is hurting the team.

Thank for for this. I've been thinking the same thing. With the entire team, actually. Kennard seems to be passing up shots at times for the dish. Even Tatum - he had a couple of errant passes last game when I thought he should have taken the shot.

They are still learning to play together, but it seems at times they want to get Giles or Bolden or someone else involved. Kennard definitely seems to be consciously taking a back seat since the Freshmen have started playing. I don't know if its a conscious effort looking at the long game, or a desire to not appear selfish, but I'd love to see the hot hand take over in a game.

And Grayson definitely needs to finish some of those drives instead of passing to keep the defense needing to guard against both.

[BandAlum83]

So has anyone heard anything with regard to Amile's "evaluation" on Wednesday?

Wasn't that when they would determine at least if is officially out for Louisville?

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

And heaven forbid he "waves his private parts at their aunties."

a la Makhtar N'diaye! 'memba him?!
Love, Ima

[Kedsy]

Kennard definitely seems to be consciously taking a back seat since the Freshmen have started playing.

I'm not sure this is really true. It is true that Luke didn't take a lot of shots against Georgia Tech or BC, but I don't think two games is not enough for a trend. Also, Luke only averaged 27 mpg in those two games, while he averaged 36.3 mpg in the other 15 games.

If we look at longer-term averages, in the 8 games before Jayson Tatum played, Luke took 13.0 shots per game. In the 9 games that Jayson has played in, Luke took 13.1 shots per game. In the 11 games before Harry played, Luke took 13.5 shots per game. In the 6 games that Harry has played in, Luke took 12.3 shots per game, which is slightly less but the difference can probably be entirely explained by the dip in minutes played in the GT and BC games (i.e., if he'd played his minute average in those two games and maintained his shot per minute average, his overall shots per game in the six-game period would have been 13.3, almost exactly what he'd done in the previous 11 games). So, at least based on shots taken, it doesn't look like Luke has actually taken a backseat at all.

[BandAlum83]

I'm not sure this is really true. It is true that Luke didn't take a lot of shots against Georgia Tech or BC, but I don't think two games is not enough for a trend. Also, Luke only averaged 27 mpg in those two games, while he averaged 36.3 mpg in the other 15 games.

If we look at longer-term averages, in the 8 games before Jayson Tatum played, Luke took 13.0 shots per game. In the 9 games that Jayson has played in, Luke took 13.1 shots per game. In the 11 games before Harry played, Luke took 13.5 shots per game. In the 6 games that Harry has played in, Luke took 12.3 shots per game, which is slightly less but the difference can probably be entirely explained by the dip in minutes played in the GT and BC games (i.e., if he'd played his minute average in those two games and maintained his shot per minute average, his overall shots per game in the 6-game period would have been 13.3, almost exactly what he'd done in the previous 11 games). So, at least based on shots taken, it doesn't look like Luke has actually taken a backseat at all.

I hear you and understand. I am going by the eye test. His shots now seem of a different quality. Maybe deeper into the clock and not ideal. Or like second option shots.

I don't know, I really cant explain it. It just looks and feels different.

[kAzE]

I hear you and understand. I am going by the eye test. His shots now seem of a different quality. Maybe deeper into the clock and not ideal. Or like second option shots.

I don't know, I really cant explain it. It just looks and feels different.

My best guess for why it "feels" different in the past 4-5 games:

1. Grayson's new role as a pass first guard. He's now being played almost exclusively on the ball, which naturally will take the ball out of Luke's hands, at least to begin possessions.

2. Amile is out. Amile is a guy you can dump the ball to in the post, and he can swing it to the opposite corner or get the ball to someone making a cut. I remember reading this somewhere, but the Amile/Luke dribble hand off was basically our #1 most effective offensive play in the non-conference schedule. Without Amile, this obviously no longer exists.

3. Jayson Tatum is a ball stopper. Hard to put it any other way. I don't mean it 100% as a bad thing. There's a reason for this . . . it's because he's absolutely magnificent going 1 on 1, and can score on anyone because of his quickness, size, length, and skill. However, he's not looking to swing the ball to open shooters like Luke. A lot of open catch and shoot opportunities come off of quick passes around the perimeter, and most of the time when Jayson gets the ball, he's looking to score, sometimes even when there's a wide open guy in the corner.

Luke is surely our best scorer, at least until Jayson can prove to be more efficient. I hope he continues to get the most shots of anyone on the team, because he's the most efficient player, and he should take the most shots. Unfortunately, the way he's getting those shots has changed drastically from game to game because our roster is constantly in flux. We really need everyone to get healthy.

[gofurman]

Ha! I'm flattered because I've not even yet tried to be persuasive. If I were going to make an expanded case against zone, it would go something like this:

1. Repetitions. We need them. In 2015, the freshmen were healthy and had played every game, every exhibition, and didn't miss a month of practice healing. Heading into Louisville, they had 16 games under their belt, and they had played very good m2m defense in most of them (which people forget) against opponents like Wisconsin, Michigan St, and UConn. Harry has only played 6 games; Jayson/Marques 9 games, and they have also missed practice when they were out. Let's continue getting m2m repetitions in, no? (Note: I'd have no issue with throwing in a zone for a few possessions as a curveball maneuver.)

2. Opportunity. Louisville has a mediocre offense that doesn't spread you out, i.e. they play two non-shooting bigs together. This is an opportunity for Duke to play well in m2m and gain confidence. Neither Harry nor Marques has experienced playing m2m well against a good opponent; Jayson at least has the Florida game under his belt.

3. Poor Game Theory.
a. Actually, this probably has nothing to do with game theory, but I'm somewhat amused when people use terms they're not that familiar with.
b. You know who else has noticed some similarities between the 2015 team heading into Louisville and the 2017 team heading into Louisville, besides internet message board posters? Rick Pitino. He's going to be prepared for and expecting Duke to play zone, is he not? Especially since Duke has occasionally played zone over the past two years ever since the 2015 game.
c. If Louisville's greatest offensive strength is offensive rebounding, why are we playing zone when they will be prepared for it?
d. There's the sad "45-yr-old in the nightclub" aspect to this. 2015 was great and should be cherished forever. Cherished, not awkwardly re-created. (Come to DBR for hard-hitting basketball analysis, folks!)

Per point two do we know Louisville doesn't spread you out when they are in O? I realize they have two bigs but that doesn't mean the three remaining players can't spread the perimeter and drive does it? ? They could still drive for pull up 5 footers if not all the way to the tin. Right ?

[Troublemaker]

Per point two do we know Louisville doesn't spread you out when they are in O? I realize they have two bigs but that doesn't mean the three remaining players can't spread the perimeter and drive does it? ? They could still drive for pull up 5 footers if not all the way to the tin. Right ?

When people say a team "spreads you out" in basketball, it refers to a team having 4 (or 5) shooters on the court. One of the major distinctions in basketball is between a team that plays 4 shooters (i.e. they have a stretch power forward) and a team that plays 3 shooters (i.e. two traditional bigs). Because Louisville plays two traditional bigs who can't shoot, Duke will more frequently have help defenders around the rim because they don't have to position themselves to cover a stretch-4 out to the 3-pt line.

Yes, Louisville will still attack us with drives, but their drivers should more frequently encounter Duke defenders at the basket.

[Troublemaker]

We're about to play the #1-ranked defense in the country on their homecourt, and yet 90% of the concern around here is about Duke's defense. Pitino will often play a matchup zone but he can also play pressure defense (both fullcourt and halfcourt), and after looking at the FSU film and how Duke's offense wilted against FSU's pressure, he might very well choose to just play pressure man. First, what that looks like below, and a high-res version here. FSU is pressuring out past halfcourt and is denying any kind of entry pass; "You don't get to run your precious Horns set, Dukies."




And you really can't run any offensive sets against this type of hyper-aggressive pressure. Your perimeter players have to be able to drive that pressure and make plays -- layups, dropoffs to big men, or kickouts for open threes. Here, Grayson was able to drive and dump to Harry for a nice, short jumper. But this happened far too infrequently, and Duke had 16 turnovers. High-res version. Hopefully Duke has more success against Louisville's pressure.



Incidentally, I think some Duke fans believe Duke plays defense hyper-aggressively like FSU above all the time. But I can't recall us doing this against any power conference team yet this season. We have only extended pressure against the lower-level teams like Tenn St so far.

[Troublemaker]

We can obsess about our defense, but it's moot if the offense turns it over. Louisville will just run out on turnovers. High-res.




Nobody was immune to poor decision-making on offense against FSU. I think Jayson's decision-making stood out to everyone, so I'm using this post to show a few of Luke's mistakes even though he overall had a pretty good game. Luke needs to drop this off to Chase instead of trying to go through FSU's rim protectors. High-res.




Grayson makes a nice kickout pass to Luke, who MUST swing it to a wide-open Jayson in the corner here. High-res. It's possible the refs missed the FSU defender swiping at the ball from behind, but the original sin here was not making the extra pass.



Plays are there to be made against pressure defense. But your decision-making has to be sharp.

[Spanarkel]

We can obsess about our defense, but it's moot if the offense turns it over. Louisville will just run out on turnovers. High-res.




Nobody was immune to poor decision-making on offense against FSU. I think Jayson's decision-making stood out to everyone, so I'm using this post to show a few of Luke's mistakes even though he overall had a pretty good game. Luke needs to drop this off to Chase instead of trying to go through FSU's rim protectors. High-res.




Grayson makes a nice kickout pass to Luke, who MUST swing it to a wide-open Jayson in the corner here. High-res. It's possible the refs missed the FSU defender swiping at the ball from behind, but the original sin here was not making the extra pass.



Plays are there to be made against pressure defense. But your decision-making has to be sharp.

Totally agree but neither Luke nor the other players currently seems to have confidence in Chase's ability to finish. Earlier in the season Chase demonstrated some nice quick moves(catch and dunk/jump hooks using the board)down low in the paint that have a high chance of success.

[CDu]

Totally agree but neither Luke nor the other players currently seems to have confidence in Chase's ability to finish. Earlier in the season Chase demonstrated some nice quick moves(catch and dunk/jump hooks using the board)down low in the paint that have a high chance of success.

Worth noting that later in the game Kennard DID drop the ball off to Jeter on a drive. Jeter saw a defender, panicked, picked up his dribble, and earned a 3-second violation. Jeter seems to have confidence issues on offense. I suspect the other players realize this.

[English]

Worth noting that later in the game Kennard DID drop the ball off to Jeter on a drive. Jeter saw a defender, panicked, picked up his dribble, and earned a 3-second violation. Jeter seems to have confidence issues on offense. I suspect the other players realize this.

This play was arguments 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 for why the players weren't interested in dumping the ball down to Chase Jeter on the offensive end. Chase was a plus-defender against FSU, but we were playing 4-on-5 out there on offense because of him. It was brutal to watch in real-time. He clearly has confidence issues on offense at this point.