Phase III - 2016-17 (Va. Tech through Louisville)

[NSDukeFan]

See, you should have put health first.

Every year, coach always has some surprises.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Rookie mistake. Won't happen again.

"Rookie Mistakes" should probably have their own listing too.

[Troublemaker]

The two consecutive home games against GaTech and BC are godsends. Funny -- when I was analyzing ACC schedules in the preseason, I actually hated these two games. Why's that? Well, when you do schedule analysis on a league with 2 "bad teams" and 13 "decent" to "very good" teams, you quickly realize that ROAD games against the 2 bad teams are scheduling gold, and home games against them are a big no-no. And why's that?

Because every ACC team has to play 9 road games, and if you play GaTech and BC on the road, that means two fewer road games that you have to play against the "decent" to "very good." I know that UNC choked away a game in which they were 17-pt favorites at GaTech, but that doesn't change my logic and schedule analysis from being right.

That said, the only way consecutive home games against GT and BC would be valuable would be the exact situation Duke is in. Due to injuries and a suspension and finals break and winter break, Duke's had a lot of "disruptions" as Coach K would call them. But our 8-man rotation is finally healthy and in the process of leaving all those disruptions behind and starting to come together as a team. And so, having these home games against GT and BC allows Duke to get well figuratively (and maybe literally in some cases), gain confidence, and ramp up properly for the meat grinder that is the rest of the schedule.

[DukieInBrasil]

That said, the only way consecutive home games against GT and BC would be valuable would be the exact situation Duke is in. Due to injuries and a suspension and finals break and winter break, Duke's had a lot of "disruptions" as Coach K would call them. But our 8-man rotation is finally healthy and in the process of leaving all those disruptions behind and starting to come together as a team. And so, having these home games against GT and BC allows Duke to get well figuratively (and maybe literally in some cases), gain confidence, and ramp up properly for the meat grinder that is the rest of the schedule.

I too am glad that Duke has these 2 games for the reasons you mentioned, although, given how we played vs GT, maybe there would be greater benefit by playing a mid-level team, say Miami or Syracuse.

The growth in Giles' game that we witnessed vs GT, as well as the emergence of Tatum's high efficiency 2pt game. Giles gives us great offensive rebounding potential and therefore more opportunities to score. Prior to last night Tatum rarely flashed what is the best part of his game, going right at the tin. His mid-range and 3pt game has been by far Duke's worst offensive option. Up until yesterday when he decided to get to the rim. He shot 1-5 from the field in the 1st half and then he made 6 consecutive 2pt FGs after that, although he did miss a couple of 3s in the 2nd half. As their game improves and increases, so does Duke's ceiling.
Defensively, both are surpassing my expectations for where i thought they'd be this year. Although both make plenty of Fr. mistakes, especially in transition, they both get lots of rebounds and Tatum in particular blocks shots and gets steals. With a little more discipline and refinement to their games, i think they will enhance our team defense immensely.

[Bob Green]

...and Tatum in particular blocks shots and gets steals.

As I stated in the MOTM thread, Jayson Tatum is a special defensive player. His length and quickness are weapons. He has the ability to impact the outcome of the game with his defensive skill set. Yes, Tatum has offensive skills which will help Duke win games but it is his defense which stands out and separates him from other talented players.

[BD80]

As I stated in the MOTM thread, Jayson Tatum is a special defensive player. His length and quickness are weapons. He has the ability to impact the outcome of the game with his defensive skill set. Yes, Tatum has offensive skills which will help Duke win games but it is his defense which stands out and separates him from other talented players.

I wouldn't say he is a very good defender - yet.

He does make great plays, but there are times when he is well out of position from a team defense standpoint. On balance a good defender with the potential to be great.

[duke4ever19]

As I stated in the MOTM thread, Jayson Tatum is a special defensive player. His length and quickness are weapons. He has the ability to impact the outcome of the game with his defensive skill set. Yes, Tatum has offensive skills which will help Duke win games but it is his defense which stands out and separates him from other talented players.

I'm hoping he ends up being our Justise Winslow on the defensive end.

Even as a freshman, Winslow showed a grit and savviness on defense that helped us a ton down the stretch. Tatum has shown flashes of that ability.

It's no accident that Winslow's defense is his calling card in the NBA. Tatum appears to be the better offensive player than Winslow was at this stage too.

[Saratoga2]

I too am glad that Duke has these 2 games for the reasons you mentioned, although, given how we played vs GT, maybe there would be greater benefit by playing a mid-level team, say Miami or Syracuse.

The growth in Giles' game that we witnessed vs GT, as well as the emergence of Tatum's high efficiency 2pt game. Giles gives us great offensive rebounding potential and therefore more opportunities to score. Prior to last night Tatum rarely flashed what is the best part of his game, going right at the tin. His mid-range and 3pt game has been by far Duke's worst offensive option. Up until yesterday when he decided to get to the rim. He shot 1-5 from the field in the 1st half and then he made 6 consecutive 2pt FGs after that, although he did miss a couple of 3s in the 2nd half. As their game improves and increases, so does Duke's ceiling.
Defensively, both are surpassing my expectations for where i thought they'd be this year. Although both make plenty of Fr. mistakes, especially in transition, they both get lots of rebounds and Tatum in particular blocks shots and gets steals. With a little more discipline and refinement to their games, i think they will enhance our team defense immensely.

Giles, like a lot of freshmen, needs to let mistakes on one play go and move quickly onto the next play. Mp doubt the coaches and his team mates are educating him about this freshmen tendency.

[Bob Green]

He does make great plays, but there are times when he is well out of position from a team defense standpoint.

Yep, I cannot disagree with you. He lacks experience. When I state he is a special defensive player, I am referring to his raw skill set: length, quickness and aggressive attitude. Jayson Tatum "brings it" on defense. The experience will come.

[fuse]

Pulled this back up from page 3.

If we can hold serve at home, which road games can we "steal" to win the regular season? Be great to start with FSU tonight.

Let's Go Duke!

[NashvilleDevil]

Was hoping for 4-1 or 3-2 this phase.

[AFL]

At this point, I will be satisfied if we finish at .500 in ACC play.

[NashvilleDevil]

At this point, I will be satisfied if we finish at .500 in ACC play.

Just stop. They will finish better than .500 in the ACC. Rough stretch considering Grayson's suspension in game 1 of this phase and Amile and Coach K's absence in the last 3 games.

[YmoBeThere]

Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere, but how did our schedule get so many long stretches of nothingness?

[freshmanjs]

Just stop. They will finish better than .500 in the ACC. Rough stretch considering Grayson's suspension in game 1 of this phase and Amile and Coach K's absence in the last 3 games.

Probably, but as I look at the schedule, I think 10-8 is most likely outcome. It's not at all hard to imagine something a bit worse than that (or better). I get to 10-8 based on:

Wins:

Miami
NC ST
@Wake
Pitt
NC
Clemson
Wake
FSU

Losses:
@ND
@VA
@Syracuse
@Miami
@UNC

[Kedsy]

I think 12-6 is most likely (assuming Amile is back w/in the next couple weeks and no further major injuries), with 11-7 as the worst case scenario. I think 13-5 is more likely than 10-8.

Last season, after losing 4 of 5 at the end of January and people here were talking about an under .500 record, we still ended up 11-7.

[freshmanjs]

I think 12-6 is most likely (assuming Amile is back w/in the next couple weeks and no further major injuries), with 11-7 as the worst case scenario. I think 13-5 is more likely than 10-8.

Last season, after losing 4 of 5 at the end of January and people here were talking about an under .500 record, we still ended up 11-7.

Sure, but last year's team was a Grayson Allen travel call and 1 pt vs UNC away from being 9-9. It's not like 11-7 was the "worst case scenario" last year. You really think there is 0 chance this team loses 5 more regular season games?

[Kedsy]

Sure, but last year's team was a Grayson Allen travel call and 1 pt vs UNC away from being 9-9. It's not like 11-7 was the "worst case scenario" last year. You really think there is 0 chance this team loses 5 more regular season games?

I wouldn't say zero chance, but I think the odds are pretty low (with the same disclaimer about Amile coming back in the next couple weeks and no additional major injuries).

Also, I didn't say 11-7 was the worst case last year, but I think this year's team (with Amile) is significantly better than last year's team (sans Amile).

[duke4ever19]

Who else feels like this week of practice to get ready for Miami/Wolfpack is a pretty big deal?

The light turns on for Bolden, Giles' conditioning gets better, as well as his overall game, and Amile heals up nicely.

Bonus: Grayson will have a week away from the media limelight.

The freshmen have been playing catchup all season, maybe this uninterrupted week is what they need to put some things together.

[YmoBeThere]

Who else feels like this week of practice to get ready for Miami/Wolfpack is a pretty big deal?

The light turns on for Bolden, Giles' conditioning gets better, as well as his overall game, and Amile heals up nicely.

Bonus: Grayson will have a week away from the media limelight.

The freshmen have been playing catchup all season, maybe this uninterrupted week is what they need to put some things together.

I would contend the exact opposite, that the lack of game time will continue to hinder progress.