MBB: Duke 84, Florida 74 Post-Game Thread

[CDu]

I think part of it has to do with the way we play perimeter defense. We really stress the importance of defending the 3 point line, so we often close out hard if someone is left unguarded, and we stay close to to ball handlers, so it's naturally easier for quicker guards to blow by guys. Giving up penetration is a sacrifice that Coach K is willing to live with most of the time, especially this year, with the rim protectors that we will eventually have. I largely agree with this philosophy in college basketball, because of the shorter 3 point line, and how much games are won and lost by the 3 point shot in college.

This is certainly part of it. Another part of it too is the type of players we've had. Bobby Hurley was not overly susceptible to dribble penetration. Same for Duhon, Amaker, Winslow, to a lesser degree Dockery, etc. Andre Dawkins was susceptible to dribble penetration, as was Paulus, as is Kennard. Jones is less susceptible to dribble penetration, though certainly not in the category of our more elite guards of yore. Some guys are just better defenders than others. And when you combine that with the style of defense we play, it magnifies that weakness.

I don't think Coach K wants to allow dribble penetration. But he REALLY doesn't want to allow uncontested 3pt shots. You try your best to prevent dribble penetration while also limiting 3pt shots. But the focus has generally been to prevent the three. And if a player does get by you, your teammates try their best to cover it up while you try to recover.

I completely agree with Kedsy though that dribble penetration has gotten a LOT easier with the increase in emphasis on calling hand-checking on the perimeter. It was a lot easier for guys like Duhon and Hinrich and others to prevent dribble penetration when they could get away with grabbing would-be drivers. Now, very little contact is permitted. So it is much harder to stop dribble penetration.

[kAzE]

I guess my post was TL.DR. Oh, well. Sorry.

But in any case your point is pretty much what I said in my post, except that it is more succinctly stated. So I guess I'm not the only one.


And I'm happy to complain and/or listen to any and all complaints about poor perimeter defense as long as we are still posting W's.

Sorry . . . I did read your whole post, I guess I just did a bad job of expanding on it

[English]

OK, but Harry's ACL surgery was 13 months ago. Or do you mean a year of not playing, then a year of diminished play, then back to original self? In other words, two years from the surgery to normalcy?

That may be true, but I'm not sure it's a well-known fact. Though I guess it depends on what "back to original selves" means. I get the impression plenty of guys have had ACL surgery and played at a high level just a year later (as opposed to two years later). In fact, if I'm not mistaken, in high school Harry Giles himself played a year after his first ACL injury and played well enough to be labeled the nation's #1 recruit. Also, State's Dennis Smith, Jr., who's been playing since approximately a year after his ACL surgery, seems to be doing pretty well. I'm sure there are a lot of other examples.

In professional sports recently, players commonly return to play within 9-12mo at professional-level performance, albeit with some drop-off from previous levels. There are certainly exceptions on both ends--for example, Adrian Peterson returned a season after an ACL tear to win the NFL rushing record and MVP in 2012. Derrick Rose took significantly longer from his own ACL tear. Many seem to regain their full athleticism and pre-injury levels the following season (i.e., the season after the season they return).

There is a treasure trove of information on the interwebs (obviously some more useful than others).

From a respected Orthopedist:
"Reinjury after ACL surgery also appears to be more common than we formerly believed. A 2013 article estimates that about one in every four athletes who returns to play suffers a second knee injury. A study by Donald Shelbourne, who developed the accelerated ACL rehab program used today, showed that 17% of athletes 18 years old and younger sustained a second ACL tear within five years."

and

"A study of NFL players who underwent ACL reconstruction showed that only 63% returned to play in a regular-season game within two seasons after surgery. A study of high school and college football players showed similar results. 63% of high school football players and 69% of college players made it back two years after surgery. Only 43% of them had returned to preinjury levels."

and finally

"Time from surgery is not the determining factor. It probably isn’t even all that important...What does seem to be important is the rigorous process where the medical team works to restore functional ability of the knee and neuromuscular control of the lower extremity. Weeks of training for coordinated movements like single- and double-leg hops, landing on uneven surfaces on the injured leg, balance and coordination work, and plyometric exercise are critical.

Strength, motion, and neuromuscular control of the hip and knee in multiple planes, and for both legs, can all predict the risk of reinjury. All of them can be improved with training, however. This process can take as little as four months, but it can require 12 to 24 months."

http://www.drdavidgeier.com/when-ath...r-acl-surgery/

[Lar77]

This is certainly part of it. Another part of it too is the type of players we've had. Bobby Hurley was not overly susceptible to dribble penetration. Same for Duhon, Amaker, Winslow, to a lesser degree Dockery, etc. Andre Dawkins was susceptible to dribble penetration, as was Paulus, as is Kennard. Jones is less susceptible to dribble penetration, though certainly not in the category of our more elite guards of yore. Some guys are just better defenders than others. And when you combine that with the style of defense we play, it magnifies that weakness.

I don't think Coach K wants to allow dribble penetration. But he REALLY doesn't want to allow uncontested 3pt shots. You try your best to prevent dribble penetration while also limiting 3pt shots. But the focus has generally been to prevent the three. And if a player does get by you, your teammates try their best to cover it up while you try to recover.

I completely agree with Kedsy though that dribble penetration has gotten a LOT easier with the increase in emphasis on calling hand-checking on the perimeter. It was a lot easier for guys like Duhon and Hinrich and others to prevent dribble penetration when they could get away with grabbing would-be drivers. Now, very little contact is permitted. So it is much harder to stop dribble penetration.

I agree with you and Kedsy. We definitely guard more aggressively against the 3, which opens us up to drives by quick guards. Driving is easier because of rule changes (this helps us on the other end as well). The key for us is the rotation/switch, which generally gets better as the year progresses. In 2015, we were awful early on at defending against drives, but got progressively better (might have been one of the benefits of changing Justise's position). This year, Jefferson is good at rotating, but others (Jeter/Vrank/Bolden) have been a little slow. It takes a little time.

[English]

I agree with you and Kedsy. We definitely guard more aggressively against the 3, which opens us up to drives by quick guards. Driving is easier because of rule changes (this helps us on the other end as well). The key for us is the rotation/switch, which generally gets better as the year progresses. In 2015, we were awful early on at defending against drives, but got progressively better (might have been one of the benefits of changing Justise's position). This year, Jefferson is good at rotating, but others (Jeter/Vrank/Bolden) have been a little slow. It takes a little time.

And incorporating zone defensive principles? That seems like a pretty tremendous paradigm shift that served us well in the run to the 2015 Natty and into the top-25 defensive teams per KenPom.

[MChambers]

I agree with this. Coach K's defensive system that shuts down the 3-point line and puts hands in the passing lanes is susceptible to dribble-penetration. The D is supposed to make up for it by either (a) rim protection by a Shelden Williams type player; or (more commonly) (b) strong defensive rotations that stop the penetrator before he gets to the hoop while also covering whoever he might dump the ball off to after drawing the help defender. Our 2010 team was very adept at (b), which is why that team's defense was so strong (#5 in the nation according to Pomeroy) despite being generally unable to stop dribble-penetration. Our 2006 team was obviously strong at (a), hence Pomeroy's ranking that team's defense #7 in the country, despite having two guards (and a sixth man) who were considered by many to be defensive liabilities. Presumably it also helps if we have a defensive ballhawk PG like Chris Duhon, Bobby Hurley, or Tommy Amaker, but those are kind of rare for any team.

I would go even further than your idea. I suggest that dribble-penetration by a quick guard is really hard to contain by almost any defense in college basketball. Especially with the recent rules emphasis eliminating things like hand-checking and bumping on the perimeter. Teams make up for it either by playing really strong team defense, like Virginia's packline or Syracuse's zone -- which for the purposes of this discussion would be analogous to (b) in the previous paragraph -- or by having a strong rim protector (like most Pittino Louisville or Calhoun UConn teams).

I agree with all of you on this. I also think the game has changed, with lots of pick and rolls and ball screens, and many bigs who can shoot the three, so that it is really hard to stop penetration and also minimize threes. Go back and watch the 1992 Duke-Michigan final. It really looks very different from today's game.

I think Coach K has been quick to adjust to changes in the game, quicker than most coaches.

[Kedsy]

And incorporating zone defensive principles? That seems like a pretty tremendous paradigm shift that served us well in the run to the 2015 Natty and into the top-25 defensive teams per KenPom.

I'm not so sure. Going into the NCAA tournament in 2015, KenPom ranked our defense as #57. Our great D in the tourney moved our defense all the way up to #12, but my recollection is we played almost exclusively man-to-man in the tournament, with no zone principles that I could discern.

[FerryFor50]

I'm not so sure. Going into the NCAA tournament in 2015, KenPom ranked our defense as #57. Our great D in the tourney moved our defense all the way up to #12, but my recollection is we played almost exclusively man-to-man in the tournament, with no zone principles that I could discern.

I actually feel like this year's team has the potential to be better than 2015's team. They're already at #20 in adjusted D in kenpom, and they've only just got Tatum and Bolden back. Bolden hasn't looked ready, Tatum's been rock solid and Giles is still yet to come.

[NYBri]

Think you are old? I call mine my NCNB account.

Me as well. NCNB all the way. They used to have a branch in the Union, right near the information desk...which, I imagine is no longer there.

Near Page Auditorium.

[NYBri]

Don't sell us DBR'ers short...over the years we've complained as much, if not more, about rebounding.

That and "Too much Hero Ball!"

[DukieTiger]

I actually feel like this year's team has the potential to be better than 2015's team. They're already at #20 in adjusted D in kenpom, and they've only just got Tatum and Bolden back. Bolden hasn't looked ready, Tatum's been rock solid and Giles is still yet to come.

Apologies if this is old news, but Duke's Adj D rating right now is still heavily based on the preseason expectations that it would have a top 15 defense. So if you just look at performance, you'd probably find them ranking a little lower.

That said, I think the D has been solid overall and will be helped with the addition of 3 (yes, 3) shot blockers, more length, and the depth that will allow our guys to play without fatigue or foul trouble- which, to me, have been the greatest causes of poor Duke defense this year.

So while I think our D is overrated based on performance, I think we probably will never see the drop into the 50s that the 2015 team saw. I think this is probably going to be a true top 20 defense.

[Troublemaker]

I actually feel like this year's team has the potential to be better than 2015's team. They're already at #20 in adjusted D in kenpom, and they've only just got Tatum and Bolden back. Bolden hasn't looked ready, Tatum's been rock solid and Giles is still yet to come.

Keep in mind, the 2015 team was ranked 15-ish in D when conference play started. But then we lost at NCSU and then at home to Miami, and the ranking plummeted. But that young team did play really good D in the non-conference. Things are just different in conference play and going against opponents familiar with your tendencies.

That said, with the amount of vets we have this year, I don't think we'll experience something similar.

[Kedsy]

Keep in mind, the 2015 team was ranked 15-ish in D when conference play started. But then we lost at NCSU and then at home to Miami, and the ranking plummeted. But that young team did play really good D in the non-conference. Things are just different in conference play and going against opponents familiar with your tendencies.

That said, with the amount of vets we have this year, I don't think we'll experience something similar.

On January 10, 2015, our defense was ranked #10 by Pomeroy. It went downhill fast soon after that.