Northwestern's quest

[ChillinDuke]

The odds of them winning two of the "tough" games there are quite high (~98% based on Pomeroy odds). But of course, they also have a very high chance of losing some of the "easier" games (95-96% chance of at least one loss).

Exactly.

If I had to take a complete guess, I'd say NW loses to Dayton and beats their other non-con patsies. Then they proceed to go 10-8 in conference. You'd be looking at an 11-loss team entering their Conference Tourney where I'd guess they go 1-1. So you'd have a 12-loss team and presumably around the #7 ranked B1G team. So it likely comes down to who was included in those 10 conference wins. If two of them are big enough wins, I think they're in. But there's likely plenty of wiggle room for that same numerical record resume being on the wrong side of the bubble. All things being equal in my above hypothetical, a win over Dayton probably has them comfortably in.

For comparison, a 19-13 Syracuse squad got in last year as a 10-seed. For whatever that's worth.

- Chillin

[SCMatt33]

Are we really alluding to NW going 0-10 in those "tough" games? That seems incredibly unlikely, especially given how they've shown thus far this year with their only two losses to good teams by a combined 6 points.

Heck 2-8 seems highly unlikely as well. They'll win something even if they lose one or two of the 8 "not tough" games.

I agree that there is no clear path to 9-9 in conference, but it does seem likely that they'll find a path when all is said and done. I mean someone has to win each game, and they are currently the #5 ranked B1G team according to Kenny P.

That's not to say they should punch their ticket here and now. But I am pretty encouraged that this will be the year that they go dancin. And, agree, if they beat Dayton (and hold serve against the other patsies) that would really frame things well entering Conference Play.

- Chillin

I'd say it's far from "highly unlikely" as it's just about what happened to them last year. They went 12-1 out of conference with a decent, but not great win over Va Tech, only a loss to UNC, and reached as high as #43 in KenPom. They proceeded to go 7-1 in conference against teams ranked below 80 by KenPom, but only 1-9 against teams rated better than 80. Am I predicting that or think that it's the most likely outcome, no, but it's plausible.

[CDu]

I'd say it's far from "highly unlikely" as it's just about what happened to them last year. They went 12-1 out of conference with a decent, but not great win over Va Tech, only a loss to UNC, and reached as high as #43 in KenPom. They proceeded to go 7-1 in conference against teams ranked below 80 by KenPom, but only 1-9 against teams rated better than 80. Am I predicting that or think that it's the most likely outcome, no, but it's plausible.

Yep. And that exact outcome (8-10 in conference) would leave them on the outside looking in.

The good news for them is that the stronger teams in conference aren't as strong as last year. Michigan St is rebuilding a bit. Maryland looks to have taken a big step back. Wisconsin too. But I certainly wouldn't say going 9-9 or better is highly likely. I would say their chances of going 8-10 or worse are pretty close to that of finishing 9-9 or better, with 9-9 having the highest individual probability of the 19 possible outcomes.

[ChillinDuke]

I dunno. I've watched them a bit this and last year and thought they looked more put together this year. A little bit more firepower too. And marginal gains should be enough to flip a game or two. Especially in a slightly less intimidating B1G landscape.

You guys could well end up right. But I'm more encouraged by their prospects this year than last.

The Dayton game is a big one.

- Chillin

[MChambers]

I dunno. I've watched them a bit this and last year and thought they looked more put together this year. A little bit more firepower too. And marginal gains should be enough to flip a game or two. Especially in a slightly less intimidating B1G landscape.

You guys could well end up right. But I'm more encouraged by their prospects this year than last.

The Dayton game is a big one.

- Chillin

I saw Northwestern's game against Mississippi Valley State (the Delta Devils) and thought the Wildcats looked better than in previous years. They're not big, but they have a bunch of shooters and better athletes than they've ever had. I'm pretty optimistic about an NCAA bid. Of course, health will be key. They need Pardon back for the B1G season, and they need the rest of their starters healthy.

[CDu]

I dunno. I've watched them a bit this and last year and thought they looked more put together this year. A little bit more firepower too. And marginal gains should be enough to flip a game or two. Especially in a slightly less intimidating B1G landscape.

You guys could well end up right. But I'm more encouraged by their prospects this year than last.

The Dayton game is a big one.

- Chillin

Just to be clear, you guesstimated 10-8 whereas I guesstimated 9-9 as the most likely outcome (not that I think 9-9 is all that likely, but it's the most likely of the 19 possible outcomes). So it is not like we're wildly disparate in our views. I just see below 9-9 as a VERY reasonable proposition. Like, greater than 40% chance of less than 9-9. I'd say 9-9 or better is still the greater probability, but I would definitely not call it highly likely that they go 9-9 or better. I basically see it as a coin flip.

[ChillinDuke]

Just to be clear, you guesstimated 10-8 whereas I guesstimated 9-9 as the most likely outcome (not that I think 9-9 is all that likely, but it's the most likely of the 19 possible outcomes). So it is not like we're wildly disparate in our views. I just see below 9-9 as a VERY reasonable proposition. Like, greater than 40% chance of less than 9-9. I'd say 9-9 or better is still the greater probability, but I would definitely not call it highly likely that they go 9-9 or better. I basically see it as a coin flip.

Yeah we're saying very similar things. The main subtlety for me is that I like their team more this year than I did last year.

Also, my guesstimate/hypothetical was based on a loss in their last 4 non-cons. If they beat Dayton (and the other 3), then 9-9 in Conference is fine with me, I'd still expect them to make it in - presuming the 9 wins weren't all the absolute worst teams in the B1G, which I find incredibly unlikely. I don't think history will repeat itself as SCMatt was saying - I think they'll flip a couple games this year and notch a couple solid wins in Conference.

- Chillin

[SCMatt33]

Yeah we're saying very similar things. The main subtlety for me is that I like their team more this year than I did last year.

Also, my guesstimate/hypothetical was based on a loss in their last 4 non-cons. If they beat Dayton (and the other 3), then 9-9 in Conference is fine with me, I'd still expect them to make it in - presuming the 9 wins weren't all the absolute worst teams in the B1G, which I find incredibly unlikely. I don't think history will repeat itself as SCMatt was saying - I think they'll flip a couple games this year and notch a couple solid wins in Conference.

- Chillin

I think we're all pretty much on the same page. You had just mentioned that you thought it was "highly unlikely" they don't grab at least a couple of good wins. I think that sort of disaster is plausible, but I'm not betting on it or anything.

[CDu]

Yeah we're saying very similar things. The main subtlety for me is that I like their team more this year than I did last year.

Also, my guesstimate/hypothetical was based on a loss in their last 4 non-cons. If they beat Dayton (and the other 3), then 9-9 in Conference is fine with me, I'd still expect them to make it in - presuming the 9 wins weren't all the absolute worst teams in the B1G, which I find incredibly unlikely. I don't think history will repeat itself as SCMatt was saying - I think they'll flip a couple games this year and notch a couple solid wins in Conference.

- Chillin

And I would say they are basically just as likely to flip a few of their wins against weaker teams as they are to flip a few of the losses against better teams. If you're going to point to last season as anomalous in that they didn't beat the good teams more, then you should probably acknowledge that they run the risk of not repeating their anomalously good performance against weaker teams last year too.

[ChillinDuke]

And I would say they are basically just as likely to flip a few of their wins against weaker teams as they are to flip a few of the losses against better teams. If you're going to point to last season as anomalous in that they didn't beat the good teams more, then you should probably acknowledge that they run the risk of not repeating their anomalously good performance against weaker teams last year too.

Oh, I acknowledge that they run a lot of probabilistic risks. I admit that they could go 0-18 in conference. I also admit the school could fold up their entire program.

But we're talking about Northwestern's quest to make the NCAAT. And I'm saying that, in watching a few of their games last year and two of their games this year, I believe that they are more likely to flip a few of their losses to wins than the opposite. Why is this so difficult to understand and/or worthy of responses? You can believe that they are destined for the same net result as last year, and there's nothing wrong with that. I don't hold such a belief. Doesn't mean either of us is correct and/or will be correct.

I apparently said "highly unlikely" in a previous post which SCMatt validly pointed out. I spoke too strongly. I should have just said unlikely, because that's what I believe.

- Chillin

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Wait... am I confused or is everyone saying the same thing? "NW is better than previous years, may win 9 or 10 conference games, and has the best shot of a bid in a very long time."

[MChambers]

Wait... am I confused or is everyone saying the same thing? "NW is better than previous years, may win 9 or 10 conference games, and has the best shot of a bid in a very long time."

Excellent, peaceful summary to end all quibbling! Let's hope they win more than 10.

[OldPhiKap]

Excellent, peaceful summary to end all quibbling! Let's hope they win more than 10.

Quite Quixotic Quest; quiet quibbling quelled. Film at eleven.

[niveklaen]

NW's quest just became more difficult - Falzon out for the year after surgery

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...g-knee-surgery

Maybe the remaining players can rally around the adversity.

[arnie]

NW's quest just became more difficult - Falzon out for the year after surgery

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...g-knee-surgery

Maybe the remaining players can rally around the adversity.

3-6 Chicago State leading NW midway through 2nd half

[westwall]

3-6 Chicago State leading NW midway through 2nd half

Whew, an NW win !

[ChillinDuke]

Whew, an NW win !

Major dodge. I didn't watch the game, so don't know context. NW beat Chicago State by 42 last year, so presumably something was up.

And the Falzon news isn't good although he hadn't played much this year so doesn't really change the product to date.

So it remains: Dayton on Saturday at the United Center, 7pm, BTN. Win that game and NW has a little breathing room entering conference play. Lose and it's back into familiar territory.

Pulling for NW and Collins!

- Chillin

[luvdahops]

NW's quest just became more difficult - Falzon out for the year after surgery

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...g-knee-surgery

Maybe the remaining players can rally around the adversity.

The Falzon injury is unfortunate, but losing him and getting Vic Law - who missed all last season and is their most dynamic player - back is a net positive for NW

[MChambers]

Losing Falzon definitely hurts, but I think this is not a surprise, since he has barely played this year. Law is definitely more important. Also, the Wildcats has enough depth that losing Falzon doesn't hurt them a lot, if they otherwise stay healthy. Tough break for Falzon, however.

[SCMatt33]

Anyone looking for something to flip to after watching UNC lose, Northwestern is currently up 24 late in the first on Dayton. Still a long way to go, but they are playing some great D and are on a 15-0 run at the under 4 timeout.