2016 Minutes Contest - Make Your Picks Here

[ACCBBallFan]

I was actually fairly impressed with Frank Jackson ability to fight through screens, albeit vs. VA State. DeLaurier had some athletic blocks, unfortunately after his man had initially blown by him.

From a best "5 "maximized together perspective, irrespective of best C and best PG position, due to experience at start/end of game, play these 5 in three 4 minute bursts per half.

24 Jefferson at C
24 Giles at PF
24 Tatum at SF
24 Jones at PG

16 Allen/ 8 Kennard at SG to save them for scoring on "Second 5 starters"

Jones and Jefferson are not necessarily scorers, so while the "best 5" rest as a unit, Allen and Kennard play with Bolden and Jackson at a PF by committee to add more scoring to the "second 5 starters" play two 4 minute bursts per half.

16 Bolden at C
16 Allen at SF
16 Kennard at SG
16 Jackson at PG

08 Jeter, 04 Giles, 04 Tatum at PF to rest Giles and Tatum some

So that would be close to a Blue squad for 24 and a White squad for 16 - not a uniform color purist so it may be White for 24 and Blue for 16.
Essentially sub at every 4 min timeout.

Depending on the opposing center or opposing PG strength/weakness, swap Bolden for Jefferson or swap Jackson for Jones onto starting/ending unit.

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Until Giles gets back from injury in and in shape, not fair in practice 5 vs 5 for Jackson to only have Kennard (or Jones or Allen) with White, Jeter and Antonio.

Once he's back though

Can mix and match Jefferson, Giles, Bolden and Jeter/Tatum and mix in Antonio and Robinson

Can mix and match Allen, Jones, Kennard and Jackson at combos.

Tatum vs DeLaurier/White/Robinson but mix in Jefferson/Allen/Jones for "experienced" challenge.

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So revised math over course of season is

32 Allen
28 Tatum
25 Jefferson (but 24 after Giles returns)
25 Jones (but 24 after Giles returns)
24 Kennard
20 Giles (but 28 at tourney time)
16 Bolden
16 Jackson
11 Jeter (but 08 after Giles returns)
02 DeLaurier, then none after Giles is back and in shape
01 White, then none
----
200 assuming no or minimal average OT

[SenatorClayDavis]

Allen 31
Jefferson 28
Tatum 27
Jones 25
Jackson 23
Kennard 23
Giles 22
Bolden 15
Jeter 4
DeLaurier 2

[ChillinDuke]

Wow. First forecast I've seen that has Allen below 30mpg.

Surprised, given a) Allen is the POY Pre-Season Favorite, b) Coach K loves giving his best players plenty of minutes, and c) Grayson may end up playing the most PG, a position that we are lacking in.

Ahem. Post #37.

Although I'm considering revising, I think I may hold for now.

- Chillin

[flyingdutchdevil]

Ahem. Post #37.

Although I'm considering revising, I think I may hold for now.

- Chillin

The backcourt is a very interesting debate. Luke, Grayson, and Jones are deserve minutes, and Jackson has arguably the most potential and the best balance between offense/defense. Also, we know that Tatum is going to play plenty of 4. I think his position, for the first half of the season, will be primarily 3, but Coach K is Coach K and will move Tatum to primarily the 4. Hence, in the first half of the season, I see 85-90 minutes available across Luke, Grayson, Jones, and Jackson and around 90-100 minutes during the second half of the season.

Grayson, despite early struggles against Matt Jones and a meaningless game with clearly subpar talent, will get minutes. He's too good and too smart to be kept off the floor. The only think keeping him off the floor are injuries (oh God, please no) and foul trouble. Also, he's the first player to leave the court in blow out games. So, I think ~37 minutes in tight games and ~26 minutes in blowouts.

Luke and Jones are much harder to figure out. One is a defensive specialist and the other is an offensive specialist (if you put them together, you get an NCAA Player of the Year). Jones has experience; Kennard has unlimited range. They both don't need to be ball-dominant to be successful, which is excellent when you put them in with JayGray-son. Which side of the game is lagging behind the other - defense or offense - will dictate which player has more minutes.

And for Jackson? No idea. He could average 12 minutes and I wouldn't be surprised. He could average 28 minutes and I wouldn't be surprised (okay, I'd be a little surprised). This is the beauty of depth; so many options.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Tatum - 29
Allen - 29
Jones - 28
Jefferson - 26
Kennard - 23
Jackson - 21
Giles - 20
Bolden - 17
Jeter - 5
Others - 2

[DukieInBrasil]

i waited until after the exhibition games, and i gotta say, the minutes played in the 2 games didn't shed a whole lot of light about how much time guys are gonna get. 2 of the potential stars of the team didn't play due to injury, one guy who's not going to star didn't play due to recovering from injury, 1 starter didn't play hardly at all in the first game but in the 2nd game played the way you would expect a beloved of K to play in such a game. 1 starter got sorta injured in the first game and played a little less due to that. And then one guy didn't play at all in the 2nd game after a very tantalizing 1st game, even though he wasn't injured.
So:
Allen 31
Jones 28
Jefferson 25
Kennard 26
Tatum 24
Jackson 20
Giles 16
Bolden 15
Jeter 9
DeLaurier 3
Obi/Vrank/
Robinson/White 3

[luburch]

Allen - 32
Tatum - 30
Jefferson - 28
Kennard - 27
Jones - 24
Jackson - 18
Bolden - 17
Giles - 15
Jeter - 7
DeLaurier - 2

[Spanarkel]

NO ONE is giving Jack White more than 2 minutes per game(, except DukieinBrasil with 3). Is it his quickness/strength/unfamiliarity with American hoops/etc? He has made all 4 of his 3 point attempts(2/2 in CTC and 2/2 against Augustana). I know he traveled a long way to play for Duke: could he be Taylor King without the baggage? Any thoughts would be most appreciated.

[flyingdutchdevil]

NO ONE is giving Jack White more than 2 minutes per game(, except DukieinBrasil with 3). Is it his quickness/strength/unfamiliarity with American hoops/etc? He has made all 4 of his 3 point attempts(2/2 in CTC and 2/2 against Augustana). I know he traveled a long way to play for Duke: could he be Taylor King without the baggage? Any thoughts would be most appreciated.

You want to add another player to get minutes for a coach who is notorious for short rotations? That's the main issue. It isn't White's readiness nor talent as much as it is his lack of exposure and the fact that he'd have to leapfrog 2-3 other players to get minutes.

He is a player that many have a lot of faith in to develop into a rotation player possibly next year and starter as an upperclassmen. But DBR, correctly so, isn't putting much equity into him playing minutes this year.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

DBR, correctly so, isn't putting much equity into him playing minutes this year.

Well, I agree with all you analysis up to this last line. We will have to wait and see how correct we all are. It could be the year that K surprises us!

(Well, it COULD be...)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, I agree with all you analysis up to this last line. We will have to wait and see how correct we all are. It could be the year that K surprises us!

(Well, it COULD be...)

Kate Upton COULD arrive on my doorstep. But, you know...

[devildeac]

Kate Upton COULD arrive on my doorstep. But, you know...

I'll let you know when she leaves my condo...

[whereinthehellami]

Injuries make this format of minutes forecasting a tough one. With that said:

Allen - 30
Jones - 28
Jefferson - 26
Tatum - 26
Kennard - 24
Bolden - 22
Jackson - 18
Giles - 14
Jeter - 8
DeLaurier - 2
Others - 2

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'll let you know when she leaves my condo...

How dare you!

I can't believe Kate would do that to me...

This must be what it feels like when a UNC athlete goes to a class with a real professor: gutted, confused, and likely in denial

[Spanarkel]

You want to add another player to get minutes for a coach who is notorious for short rotations? That's the main issue. It isn't White's readiness nor talent as much as it is his lack of exposure and the fact that he'd have to leapfrog 2-3 other players to get minutes.

He is a player that many have a lot of faith in to develop into a rotation player possibly next year and starter as an upperclassmen. But DBR, correctly so, isn't putting much equity into him playing minutes this year.

Thank you for the reasoned response. Obviously 4 attempts from three point land is a small sample size, but IF White gets the chance AND continues to shoot a high percentage(>/=50%), then he should get "some" minutes, especially on nights when the team is a collective 5/24(hopefully not many of these)from 3, but I guess "If IFs and BUTs were candied nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas."

[atoomer0881]

This was perhaps one of the toughest things I've ever tried to predict. This is all based on the hope that we can play 40 games this year... :-)

Grayson Allen - 30
Luke Kennard - 25
Jayson Tatum - 24
Matt Jones - 24
Amile Jefferson 23
Frank Jackson - 20
Marques Bolden - 18
Harry Giles 17
Chase Jeter - 9
Javin DeLaurier - 8
Others - 2

[devildeac]

Might be some re-allocation of minutes guessing with the most recent injury .

[arnie]

My revised (couldn't add to 200 earlier) and final prediction based on latest news:

Amile - 39
Grayson - 39
Luke - 39
Frank - 39
Matt - 39
Harry - 1
Jeter - 1
Jayson - 1
Marques - 1
Javin - 1

[Fish80]

Allen, Grayson 25
Bolden, Marques 18
DeLaurier, Javin 6
Giles, Harry 21
Jackson, Frank 20
Jefferson, Amile 24
Jeter, Chase 18
Jones, Matt 19
Kennard, Luke 23
Obi, Sean 1
Robinson, Justin 1
Tatum, Jayson 22
Vrankovic, Antonio 1
White, Jack 1

[Neals384]

Here's my entry:

Tatum	25
Giles	18
Jeter	3
Allen	32
Kennard	26
DeLaurier	2
Jones	28
Jackson	17
Bolden	20
Jefferson	28
All Other	1
Total	200