2016 Minutes Contest - Make Your Picks Here

[pfrduke]

I'm hopeful that Neals384 will still come along and do the tabulation, but there has been much clamor among the masses to officially open up the minutes contest, so here we are. This is a very simple contest - pick the MPG that the players on Duke's roster will have this year. Note that we will count MPG as a percentage of TOTAL team minutes, not just team minutes in the game the player plays. In other words, if Giles plays half the season and plays 20 minutes in each of those games, his MPG will be 10 minutes per game. Here's a link to the chart that had last year's guesses. If there are any questions, post them in this thread. Deadline to enter is 6:00 p.m. eastern on Nov. 11.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thanks pfrduke. My minutes as per your instructions:

Grayson Allen: 35
Amile Jefferson: 31
Jayson Tatum: 29
Matt Jones: 25
Luke Kennard: 22
Frank Jackson: 20
Marques Bolden: 17
Harry Giles: 12
Chase Jeter: 5
Other: 4

[NSDukeFan]

Grayson Allen - 30
Amile Jefferson - 28
Jayson Tatum - 27
Matt Jones - 25
Harry Giles - 23
Luke Kennard - 22
Frank Jackson - 20
Marques Bolden - 15
Chase Jeter - 8
Javin DeLaurier - 2

Antonio Vrankovic, Sean Obi, Jack White, Justin Robinson, Nick Pagliuca, Brennan Besser hopefully some, but I don't know anyone I would take minutes from, even though I always hope to see the bench guys play more. Maybe, some overtime games so we can go over 200 minutes per game? No, that's too stressful.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Grayson Allen - 30
Amile Jefferson - 28
Jayson Tatum - 27
Matt Jones - 25
Harry Giles - 23
Luke Kennard - 22
Frank Jackson - 20
Marques Bolden - 15
Chase Jeter - 8
Javin DeLaurier - 2

Antonio Vrankovic, Sean Obi, Jack White, Justin Robinson, Nick Pagliuca, Brennan Besser hopefully some, but I don't know anyone I would take minutes from, even though I always hope to see the bench guys play more. Maybe, some overtime games so we can go over 200 minutes per game? No, that's too stressful.

Interesting. With the exception of Giles, we're on the same page in terms of minute rank. I would have Giles a lot higher, but I'm so uncertain about his readiness. And based on what Coach K has said, he's gonna be brought along slowly.

[MarkD83]

Duke has too many good players....

[cbarry]

Grayson Allen - 30
Jayson Tatum - 30
Amile Jefferson - 24
Luke Kennard - 24
Frank Jackson - 23
Marques Bolden - 22
Matt Jones - 21
Harry Giles - 15
Javin DeLaurier - 5
Chase Jeter - 5
Jack White- 1

[pfrduke]

So we're three picks in and already have a potential issue, which is that each of the three posters picked for different sets of players. One included White and DeLaurier, one DeLaurier, and one neither (but included "Others"). So let's put some ground rules around this:

• Anyone who averages at least 2 minutes per game (80 minutes for the season)* will be graded individually. That is, if you don't make a specific guess for that player, you will be deemed to have guessed 0. That player CANNOT count as "other"
• Anyone who averages fewer than 2 minutes per game can count as "other"; however, if you choose to pick individual minutes for someone who ends up under 2 mpg, you can get graded against that choice.
• I note, merely for observation, the minutes played by the ninth and 10th players by minutes for each season since 2010, which suggests that people should be picking at least the top 9 by person, and probably at least 10. Last year was a huge aberration on this front, which I suspect is not likely to occur this year.
  
  • 2010: 9th - 5.7 (Kelly); 10th - 1.5 (Czyz)
  • 2011: 9th - 8.2 (Irving, sigh); 10th - 4.5 (Hairston)
  • 2012: 9th - 7.2 (Hairston); 10th - 3.3 (Gbinije)
  • 2013: 9th - 5.4 (Murphy); 10th - 1.4 (MP3)
  • 2014: 9th - 7.3 (MP3); 10th - 6.7 (Jones) - note also that #11 got 2.3 (Ojeyele)
  • 2015: 9th - 8.3 (Allen); 10th - 1.6 (Ojeyele)
  • 2016: 9th - 0.8 (Obi); 10th - 0.4 (Vrankovic)

For those of you who have already picked, you are free to revise your choices consistent with these rules.

*Yes, I know what I did there. Knock on wood, etc. Two minutes per game will be the official threshold, not total minutes.

[MChambers]

Allen 30
Jefferson 30
Jones 27
Kennard 26
Tatum 24
Jackson 16
Bolden 18
Giles 19
Jeter 8
White 2
Delaurier 2
Vrankovic 1

[devildeac]

Damn, I had exactly the winning numbers until Harry had his knee scoped .

Back to the Ouija board and IPAs again tomorrow night to see if I get them right again.

[David Bunkley]

Grayson Allen - 29
Luke Kennard - 25
Jayson Tatum - 27
Amile Jefferson - 25
Matt Jones - 28
Frank Jackson - 25
Harry Giles - 16
Marques Bolden - 12
Chase Jeter - 10
Javin DeLaurier - 1
Jack White - 1
Others - 1

Jeter will probably average less than 10 minutes per game once Harry is 100%, but I hope he plays well in the early going and earns a spot in the rotation.

[Ichabod Drain]

Grayson Allen-31
Jayson Tatum-30
Amile Jefferson-27
Luke Kennard-25
Matt Jones-24
Frank JAckson-20
Harry Giles-18
Margues Bolden-16
Chase Jeter-6
Everyone else-3

[mattman91]

Not to toot my own horn, but I won last year's rosterbation contest

[mr. synellinden]

I am factoring the possibility/likelihood of a higher number of blowouts affecting average minutes per game across the season. Here goes:

Allen - 32

Jefferson - 30

Tatum - 27

Kennard - 22

Jones - 21

Jackson - 20

Giles - 20

Bolden - 18

Jeter - 8

DeLaurier - 2

[House P]

So we're three picks in and already have a potential issue, which is that each of the three posters picked for different sets of players. One included White and DeLaurier, one DeLaurier, and one neither (but included "Others"). So let's put some ground rules around this:

• Anyone who averages at least 2 minutes per game (80 minutes for the season)* will be graded individually. That is, if you don't make a specific guess for that player, you will be deemed to have guessed 0. That player CANNOT count as "other"
• Anyone who averages fewer than 2 minutes per game can count as "other"; however, if you choose to pick individual minutes for someone who ends up under 2 mpg, you can get graded against that choice.

For those of you who have already picked, you are free to revise your choices consistent with these rules.

*Yes, I know what I did there. Knock on wood, etc. Two minutes per game will be the official threshold, not total minutes.

Thanks for clarifying the ground rules.

I was about to post the following prediction:

Nick Pagliuca - 0.5
Others - 199.5

Based on your ground rules, it looks like I'm going to have to go back to the drawing board

[pfrduke]

Allen 30
Jefferson 30
Jones 27
Kennard 26
Tatum 24
Jackson 16
Bolden 18
Giles 19
Jeter 8
White 2
Delaurier 2
Vrankovic 1

This totals 203 minutes.

[MarkD83]

This totals 203 minutes.

If total minutes = 200 is not part of the ground rules then it makes it easier to guess...

Allen 25
Jefferson 25
Jones 25
Tatum 25
Kennard 25
Jackson 20
Bolden 20
Giles 20
Jeter 15
White 5
Delaurier 5
Vrankovic 5

[NSDukeFan]

If total minutes = 200 is not part of the ground rules then it makes it easier to guess...

Allen 25
Jefferson 25
Jones 25
Tatum 25
Kennard 25
Jackson 20
Bolden 20
Giles 20
Jeter 15
White 5
Delaurier 5
Vrankovic 5

Then I would go with:
Allen 35
Jefferson 32
Tatum 33
Jones 30
Kennard 28
Giles 28
Jackson 28
Bolden 24
Jeter 22
DeLaurier 15
Vrankovic 8
White 8
Robinson 8
Obi 8
Pagliuca 4
Besser 2
That was a lot easier.

[NSDukeFan]

Interesting. With the exception of Giles, we're on the same page in terms of minute rank. I would have Giles a lot higher, but I'm so uncertain about his readiness. And based on what Coach K has said, he's gonna be brought along slowly.

I think your prediction for Grayson may be closer than mine and I am an optimist so hoping for huge things from Harry, especially health.

[phaedrus]

Allen 33
Jones 23
Kennard 25
Jackson 15
Jefferson 32
Tatum 28
Giles 15
Bolden 18
Jeter 9
DeLaurier 2

[superdave]

Grayson Allen: 34
Jayson Tatum: 30
Amile Jefferson: 29
Luke Kennard: 28
Matt Jones: 23
Harry Giles: 22
Frank Jackson: 18
Marques Bolden: 14
Chase Jeter: 4