MBB Dork Polls/Stats: 2016-17 Edition

[Olympic Fan]

9 days later and the ACC still has a crazy high Pomeroy rating. We have the top 3 teams (Duke, Virg, UNC) and 5 of the top 9 (Lou #7, Syr #9).

Generally, the top 40 teams in Pomeroy's rankings make the field. In addition to the 5 teams in the top 10, the ACC also has Miami (#26), Notre Dame (#29), Clemson (#33), FSU (#36), and Va Tech (#39) in good shape to make the dance if the tourney were today. That's 10 teams and it does not even include NC State, a team that many expect to be fairly strong in the league as the season moves along.

-Jason "Duke #1 in offense, Virginia #1 in defense... clash of the titans Feb 15 in Charlottesville" Evans

just thought I'd update -- as of Nov. 30, the ACC still has the top three teams in the rankings, but it's No. 1 Virginia, No. 2 Duke and No. 3 UNC. Virginia has Kenpom's No. 1 defense, Duke has the No. 1 offense (and No. 17 defense).

Louisville is No. 7, but Syracuse has dropped out of the top 10 (down to 17).

[Wahoo2000]

just thought I'd update -- as of Nov. 30, the ACC still has the top three teams in the rankings, but it's No. 1 Virginia, No. 2 Duke and No. 3 UNC. Virginia has Kenpom's No. 1 defense, Duke has the No. 1 offense (and No. 17 defense).

Louisville is No. 7, but Syracuse has dropped out of the top 10 (down to 17).

Is there a definitive answer on when his rankings become relevant to the current season only? And also when they don't rely on any of his preseason data (regarding expected play from recruits and/or transfers)? I've heard everything from "after 10 games" to "late Dec/early Jan" to "about halfway through conference play".


EDIT/ADDENDUM: Interesting that the gap in adjusted eff margin between #1 and #5 is less than half the size of the gap between #5 and #6.

[SCMatt33]

Is there a definitive answer on when his rankings become relevant to the current season only? And also when they don't rely on any of his preseason data (regarding expected play from recruits and/or transfers)? I've heard everything from "after 10 games" to "late Dec/early Jan" to "about halfway through conference play".


EDIT/ADDENDUM: Interesting that the gap in adjusted eff margin between #1 and #5 is less than half the size of the gap between #5 and #6.

It definitely extends into late January, at least as of 2012, which is when the most recent KenPom blog post I could find regarding that subject was posted. It also mentioned that the ratings still had 2-3 games worth of weight around Christmas.

[JasonEvans]

Virginia's close win at home over a less than great Ohio St squad drops them from #1 to #3 in the Kenpom ratings (their D feel out of the top spot too, with Louisville taking over as the most efficient defensive team in the land). Villanova is now #2. Some team with a bunch of injured freshmen is back at #1.

[Siat]

It definitely extends into late January, at least as of 2012, which is when the most recent KenPom blog post I could find regarding that subject was posted. It also mentioned that the ratings still had 2-3 games worth of weight around Christmas.

KenPom answered this earlier this week on his Twitter: "It's always 73 days from the start of the season. This season that is January 23rd."

[Olympic Fan]

FWIW: Duke is back at No. 1 in KenPom -- ahead of No. 2 Villanova and No. 3 Virginia.

I was also looking at Maine -- it is, according to Pomeroy, the weakest opponent we play this season -- by far. We play six games against teams outside the top 150:

340 -- Maine
272 -- App State -- W 93-58
238 -- Marist -- W 94-49
195 -- Boston College
183 -- Grand Canyon -- W 96-61
166 -- UNLV

Amazing how similar the scores against the three bottom feeders that we've played. I expect the Maine score to be similar,

Upcoming games with Tennessee State and Elton are better -- they are both top 150 teams.

Duke plays its last 15 games (after the BC game) against top 100 teams -- 12 of them against teams currently in the top 50.

[riverside6]

Just wanted to add that my Game Sim site only looks at this season's data, updated daily. We just choose not to post a poll for the first 4-6 weeks of the season instead of posting something that is based on some hybrid of this season and prior season's data.

Game Sim's rankings here: http://www.ncaagamesim.com/rankings.asp

[subzero02]

Just wanted to add that my Game Sim site only looks at this season's data, updated daily. We just choose not to post a poll for the first 4-6 weeks of the season instead of posting something that is based on some hybrid of this season and prior season's data.

Game Sim's rankings here: http://www.ncaagamesim.com/rankings.asp

Maine is rated much higher although still fairly low in your rankings... #257 compared to #340 on kenpom

[JasonEvans]

Upcoming games with Tennessee State and Elton are better -- they are both top 150 teams.

Wait a sec... are we playing Elton 1-on-5 or has he been cloned. He's older and retired from the NBA at this point, but I bet he can still bang with Duke's big men.

[vick]

And in individual dork polls, Kenpom's player of the year stat is now live. It's subscribers only, but as of right now, nationally, Luke is #4, Grayson #5, and Amile #6!

[uh_no]

And in individual dork polls, Kenpom's player of the year stat is now live. It's subscribers only, but as of right now, nationally, Luke is #4, Grayson #5, and Amile #6!

giles/bolden/tatum 1-2-3!

and Matt DPOY

or they should be.

[Troublemaker]

After a dominating performance like that, it's nice to check in with KenPom.

O is still #1 and D is up to #14.

Duke is the top team and our O rank and D rank are both higher than #2 team Villanova's.

[Olympic Fan]

After a dominating performance like that, it's nice to check in with KenPom.

O is still #1 and D is up to #14.

Duke is the top team and our O rank and D rank are both higher than #2 team Villanova's.

the other thing I check are his projections. He just flipped Duke at Louisville from a one-point loss to a one-point win. If you go down his projections individually, he has Duke losing at Virginia and at UNC -- and finishing the regular season 28-3 (16-2 ACC).

But his overall projection is 26-5 (14-4 ACC) ... that's actually one game better (both overall and conference) than it was before the UNLV game.

[MChambers]

Ahead of UNCheat, behind only the Mountaineers:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Ahead of UNCheat, behind only the Mountaineers:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/

Link no worko

[Indoor66]

Link worked for me on my desktop but does not work for me on my phone.

[MChambers]

Link no worko

Works fine for me. Don't know why you're having trouble, unless your browser thinks USA Today is too low brow.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Works fine for me. Don't know why you're having trouble, unless your browser thinks USA Today is too low brow.

*frowns* could be my phone mojo

[Reilly]

WVU 15th in AP poll, but #1 in SRS, and #2 in NRtg:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...7-ratings.html

Nice to see Duke top 10 in defensive Rtg (points allowed per 100 possessions).

[uh_no]

WVU 15th in AP poll, but #1 in SRS, and #2 in NRtg:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...7-ratings.html

Nice to see Duke top 10 in defensive Rtg (points allowed per 100 possessions).

the fact that UWV is #1 exhibits a flaw of sagarin, at least at this point in the year. Yes they're a good team...they have a great win against virginia away...that's a really good win.

but much of their ranking is due to blowing out cupcakes. They have one of the worst SOS in the country (331/351)...on their stellar resume is

35 point win over #319 VMI
53 point win over #311 Western Carolina
47 point win over #225 manhattan
59 point win over #152 New hampshire
41 point win over #344 mississippi valley

The wisconsin effect is in full effect there. Yes they're a good, potentially really good team...but their resume at this point is based almost entirely on beating virginia and running up the score against, well, everyone.