Phase 0 2016-17 MBB Season

[flyingdutchdevil]

See 2010, Duke had four capable bigs (Zoubek, Thomas, Mason Miles) plus a big wing who had previously played a lot of minutes (Singler). Kyle rarely played in the post that season, and as I recall, that team was rather efficient. Once Giles is healthy, I don't expect to see Tatum spend much time in the post.

I hate that every phase analysis has to begin with health, but such is sports. We won't know this team's ceiling until Giles is really healthy and has a couple games with the team for them to get used to playing with him. Hope it's sooner than later.

Kyle rarely played the post because Duke had nearly zero backcourt depth that year. All Duke had was a HS senior in Andre Dawkins, who absolutely helped but was used as insurance in the case that Singler, Smith, or Scheyer got in foul trouble or needed a 45 second break.

My gut tells me that, had Elliott Williams stayed, Singler would have seen some time at the 4. We had frontcourt depth that year (LT, Zoubs, MP1, MP2) but Singler was easily the best scorer of the bunch.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think one of the most over-analyzed aspects of Duke (or any other) hoops is the question of who starts (and I'm not criticizing you in the least, Newt)...starting lineups change over the course of the season, but
what matters most (to me anyway) is who is in the game at crunch time...and even that will vary depending upon who's playing well during any particular game.

Duke will have (barring injury) eight guys who absolutely will be in the rotation: Allen, Jones, Kennard, Jackson, Tatum, Giles, Jefferson and Bolden. I wouldn't be surprised to see
any of those guys start at some point during the season, nor would I be surprised to see any of them playing at crunch time.

Without delving too deep into the annual This Year K Will Absolutely Have to Play Ten Guys sweepstakes, I see the rotation over/under at about 8.5 or possibly 9.0 guys, with
DeLaurier and Jeter vying for the addition half or whole spot.

The only issue I have with crunch time is that crunch time is often the intersection between a) who are the best players and b) who is a reliable FT shooter. You can argue that Okafor wasn't available during many "crunch time" moments because his FT shooting was atrocious.

IMO, the best measurement is minutes per game. I believe that is 100% correlated with how Coach K views who is the most valuable player(s) on the team and who is truly part of the rotation.

I put this year's rotation at 8 and, with a gun to my head, I'd say "under" over "over" if forced to.

[-jk]

The only issue I have with crunch time is that crunch time is often the intersection between a) who are the best players and b) who is a reliable FT shooter. You can argue that Okafor wasn't available during many "crunch time" moments because his FT shooting was atrocious.

IMO, the best measurement is minutes per game. I believe that is 100% correlated with how Coach K views who is the most valuable player(s) on the team and who is truly part of the rotation.

I put this year's rotation at 8 and, with a gun to my head, I'd say "under" over "over" if forced to.

Matchups matter, too...

-jk

[Billy Dat]

Way to take and win the opening jump, Newt!

So, the key questions health wise as of right now are: When will Giles be ready? How quickly can he get up to full speed with the conditioning required to play at this level, and obviously, what kind of player will we see when he finally takes the floor? We will not find out in this short Phase, so this is something that will not be known until at least Phase 1. Thoughts?

The more preview information I inhale, the more the with/without Giles story looms so large. We can be a different team offensively and defensively when he is on the court. With and Amile and big man #2, the potential for lane clogging and lack of rim protection exists. Giles would seem to solve those problems. I guess any two big line-up with Amile means Amile has to be the high post/perimeter option which is probably where all K's "Draymond" comparisons stem from...which crack me up because K thought so much of Draymond that he never played him in Rio. Harry just seems to be the piece that makes everything else make sense. We obviously have more than enough talent even without Harry, but our upside with him seems huge.

[*]Tatum- I have seen him twice now in practices and to these eyes he looks like the real deal offensively. Really really good shooter… from deep or midrange. He will kill that Cuse zone when he is in the game at the 4 spot. Very very impressive. Offensive machine. The only thing I have not seen from him offensively is the ability or desire really to pass for an assist. He looks to score always and is very successful. Can he be a good passer? Will he make the extra pass? What can he do defensively? Those are questions I hope to get answers for soon.

I don't think Ingram is the gunner that Tatum is, but I do think we will learn something over the next two weeks about how well Tatum's (truly impressive) offensive game meshes with the veterans. He needs to be ok being option #2, because Grayson is clearly Duke's best offensive option.

This is something that is concerning in a nitpick kind of way. Grayson is clearly Duke's most proven offensive option, but it doesn't mean he's better on offense than Tatum. We don't know yet. It's kind of like Grayson and Ingram. I think Ingram would have passed Grayson as a weapon this year as his stamina/strength increased. Grayson's shoot or drive capability seem to make him more versatile, but Tatum has that size to get off his shot against anyone. My point is that I fear "you turn/my turn" with these guys, but Grayson has shown potential as a set-up man.

Like you, I would expect Matt to embrace and thrive in a 6th-man role off the bench. Hopefully Frank is up to the task of being a freshman starter -- it sounds like there's a chance.

It depends whether or not we can defend. I imagine that for nearly every team we face, Matt gets the toughest defensive assignment. Because of that, and unless someone else proves able to lock-up the other team's star, I see him starting.

2) Regarding Bolden's skill set- I've actually heard some rumblings about him being a decent threat to shoot from the high post. I will be interested to see if he flashes that at all in Phase 0.
4) Regarding the returning vets, the thing I'm most excited to see is if Luke Kennard is more consistent with his outside shot. If he could become a 40% 3pt shooter, he becomes an amazingly efficient weapon.

I've already heard a lot of Bolden-is-Jah-lite talk from the scouts. That would potentially include a face-up game, but I don't think we can expect the same low post polish. I expect Luke to shoot really well this year. His inside-outside game reminds me a lot of Grayson's, minus the above-the-rim component.

I'm just glad Coach K is the guy that has to make those decisions and not me. I mean, gosh, who do you sit to start the game? Luke? Frank? Matt? Bolden? Based on everything I have seen to date, my gut tells me that in that first Regular Season game that counts, the starters will be Grayson, Matt, Luke, Tatum, Amile. With Jackson, Bolden, Jeter coming off the bench and in the rotation.

I'm not sure I agree. Historically, Coach K doesn't go small early in the season, except maybe in crunch time in the toughest games. So my guess is, while Harry is out we'll be seeing Jayson mostly at SF, except maybe against Kansas and Michigan State (if Harry is still out by then). Once Harry is back and the conference schedule is in full swing, all bets are off. If the team is roaring through its schedule with two bigs in the lineup, I suspect it will continue. If we start to sputter, then like 2015 and many seasons before that, we could end up with a 7-man rotation and Jayson at PF.

I think much will depend on whether Newton's small line-up can defend and rebound or can Kedsy's two big line-up avoid the clogged toilet offense. We need some magic to figure it out. As a wise man who knew something about magic once said, "You're a wizard, Harry, and a thumpin good one I'd wager"

[COYS]

Matchups matter, too...

-jk

Perhaps . . . but from my perspective it certainly seems as if Coach K's personnel decisions are generally made to force the other team to play against our best lineup, no matter what. I mean, we definitely take advantage of mismatches when we can and do different things on both ends of the court depending on who we're playing, but I'm trying to remember a time when it seemed like Coach K dramatically altered the rotation to match up with another team and I can't. Even some of Coach K's biggest mid-season lineup shakeups (Inserting Eliot Williams as a starter in 2009, Zoubek in 2010, Tyler Thornton in 2011, Matt Jones in 2015, and etc.) were prompted by the play of Duke's guys, not the other team.

The closest thing I can think of to coach K changing the rotation based on matchups is when a player that is on the periphery of the rotation is given a few minutes, plays well, and earns more time in that game, possibly because that player happens to exploit certain matchups. Something like Grayson in the 2015 championship game would be the most obvious example. But playing Grayson that many minutes was almost certainly not in Coach K's original game plan.

[blazindw]

Well, it’s that time of year basketball fans! I don’t know about you, but I am totally stoked about the prospects of our Duke Blue Devils this season! If you are not excited, you should be! As Coach K said earlier this week, this team has a chance to be really special. If things come together then lookout, because these young men are definitely going to be Banner Hunting. I am really hoping we can finally take back what is rightfully ours which are the ACC Regular Season Championship, and ACC Tournament Championship. We need to end that drought! Of course we also have our eyes on the bigger prizes, in the Regional Championship to advance to the Final Four, and the biggest prize of them all in the National Title. Unlike the last two seasons specifically, the cupboard is fully stocked! We have young, old, big, medium, and small guys, and enough talent to sweep the ACC Rookie & Player Of The Year Awards. However, those things are for later on and there is a ton of work to put in if these guys are going to challenge for all those things. And with that, without further ado, I submit to you this Seasons Phase 0 Report. I tried really hard to pay homage to the guy who started these “Phase Reports” way back when, with how I structured and wrote this. For those that don’t know, his screen name was “Jumbo” but we actually think he was Jon Scheyer in real life. HA! I hope I did him proud! Please Please Please join the discussion in this thread and give us all your thoughts. We want to drive much more discussion with the Phase Threads this season, and we have added a few new guys to help write these things, and we are really excited about that and hope you will enjoy their inputs. So here we go!
Phase 0 will run from CTC to the 2^nd Exhibition Game

An incredible post, man! It was great to break down the incoming freshman and you nailed it with the questions that will be important to answer as we move through the preseason and advance towards November 11th. Here are the three things as I see it that are important to determine in this Phase 0:

1. How will the team gel? We saw with Countdown this past weekend and if you've been reviewing the videos that the team has been posting on social media throughout the summer and fall that the team seems to like each other and they already have camaraderie. It's a great mix of talent, youth, with just the right experience. How do they continue to gel on the court? That's what I will look for these next couple weeks. Who plays well with each other? Which rotations seem to be the most cohesive? Which players bring out the best game in others? No doubt that Coach K and the rest of the staff will be analyzing this during the two exhibition games.

2. There will be only one basketball. A gift and a curse is that there's only one basketball on the court. The gift is that we have probably 7 players who could get 20 points on any given night: Allen, Tatum, Giles, Kennard, Jefferson, Jones, and Jackson. The curse is that there just isn't enough shots for everyone to get 20 points every game. Who steps up if Allen has an off night? Who gets big on the glass when Jefferson isn't getting it done? Who's helping to distribute the ball? Who's locking down on D when Matt Jones gets into foul trouble? How will a player respond when getting 25 points in 30 minutes one night and then only getting 10 minutes the next? All that will come down to chemistry and leadership. I think we all feel the chemistry is there, and we have bonafide leaders in Jefferson, Jones and Allen to lead the team and show the freshmen how to tackle the inevitable January wall or to not get discouraged when they have an off night.

3. Taking Duke Defense to the next level. The key to this team will not be on offense, but on defense. They will take everyone's best shot every single night. Our offense may flounder at times and a couple guys may not have good nights shooting. But, our defense has to be there at all times and if we can do that, there will not be a team in the country that can mess with us. One team that I think this team can emulate is the 2000-2001 team. That team had the mix of talent and leadership that one needs, but one thing they did better than any team I've ever seen was talk on defense and concentrate on the defensive end to use that as momentum for their offensive output. Their defensive stops spurred their offense. They prided themselves on working hard on the defensive end every single possession, and I've never seen a team take pride in their defense, beating top 10 teams by 40. This team doesn't need to beat top 10 teams by 40, but this team has the ability to shut down any team they play if they concentrate on our patented Duke Defense, which will spur our offense to easy transition baskets. It will also be a lot of fun to watch.

Those are the things I'm looking for early on in the preseason. We don't have all our pieces together and while Harry Giles recovers, we will see a team that is still learning to properly play with each other. The results aren't important now. Getting sharper everyday is what I'm looking for.

[Doria]

Yes, thanks for starting this thread!

I agree that I'm not too concerned with offense. I'm hoping in terms of defense that the fact we have so much more experience (relative to last year, where lack of options often had us playing 3-4 freshmen) means we'll be better situated to have at least defensive stability, while out freshmen pick up the system and adjust to the college game. I'm a bit worried about lack of quickness, but if we can have solid positioning, without breakdowns, it should mitigate a lot of those concerns.

So excited!

[ChillinDuke]

If there's anything that I noticed from Countdown (which I watched last night), it was that Amile and Matt are more than I thought.

Amile commanded everything. He was everywhere, he was vocal, he was super engaged, he dribbled the ball up, he initiated the offense/called plays (even when he didn't bring the ball up), he nailed a long jumper with smooth confidence (nice to see), he was on the boards. In the short amount of time that Countdown was, there was no doubt in my mind whose team this was. The fact that Amile was out on the perimeter (out past the three point line at times), pointing to players, feeding the post, dribbling with confidence, and even hitting that smooth jumper hints to me that having a clogged lane will not be a problem. At all.

Matt was superb on D. Grayson was so visibly frustrated. He had 10 points in the half (which is still impressive), but it was a dogged 10. Matt was disruptive, irritating, and hounding. If he displays those traits with consistency, I'd be shocked if he doesn't start. He also nailed his threes which will be imperative if we're going to keep the floor nicely spread. Matt also seemed to have a new move or two to help his handle.

Grayson, while having a generally poor half, still had ten points. That says a lot to me. Frustrated and chucking he still had 10 and seemed to be very intent on initiating the offense (although he had turnovers - possibly due to freshmen not being where he expected them to be). He also displayed what seemed to be a more confident handle (potentially saw an inside out double pump that freed him up once or twice?).

Why did I focus on these three? Not because they are the "leaders." But because all three seemed to be sporting an increased focus on ball handling. Allen for sure. Amile for sure. And Matt less so, but seemingly. I think that all three will have a green light to initiate the offense. Which means we can allow Frank and/or Luke to be secondary ball handlers - which their skills may not even mandate, but as a luxury the team does not require. This was the #1 thing I wanted to see, and I feel slightly less concerned, especially seeing Amile act in this role.

It's only 20 minutes of essentially practice. But Countdown made me feel more strongly that we will lean on two bigs, one of which will be Amile as much as possible, and that Tatum will play more as a matchup nightmare wing with too much size for most teams' wings.

All of this is subject to change. But I'm excited.

- Chillin

[Saratoga2]

This might not be the ideal thread for this question but...
DBR has made multiple references recently about Vrank (the Tank) being a redshirt. Is this true? I remember he played in a few games and it seemed like he played late enough in the year that he wouldn't have gotten a redshirt even if he was injured. I certainly don't remember any talk of him being injured.

Vrank is a 6' 11" 275 pound athletic big man who will be gaining experience this year, and if he is patient, has a good chance of making the lineup the following year. Kind of another Marshall Plumley type who could and did become a valued player as he matured and gained experience.

[Troublemaker]

I'm a bit worried about lack of quickness, but if we can have solid positioning, without breakdowns, it should mitigate a lot of those concerns.

Oh, I think overall, Duke's a quick team. I think what you mean is that we're not sure who will defend quick point guards, which is a concern of mine and others as well. Nationally, that means who will do an adequate to good job on guys like Mason/Graham of Kansas, De'Aaron Fox of Kentucky, Jalen Brunson of Villanova, etc? And within the ACC, we have to deal with guys like Joel Berry, Ja'Quan Newton, Dennis Smith, and Seth Allen.

[JasonEvans]

But then who sits? I just don't see Jefferson, Giles or Bolden sitting much, especially when Tatum will be our best SF. Good problem to have...

So, I think one of the things about "Phases" is that we need to accept that there will be a huge shift, likely some time in December, when Giles is ready to play. Prior to that, we are not going to be a team with a lot of high quality bigs. I suspect that Tatum will play a good bit of "4" (I know, DHNP*). From what we saw over the weekend, Bolden is still extremely raw. I expect him to play, but it may take some time for him to be more than 10-15 minutes in significant games. In fact, I won't be all that surprised if he and Jeter play a similar number of minutes, at least early in the year,.

So, I suspect we will see a lot of Matt, Jackson, Allen, and Kennard sharing the 1-3 positions early in the year with Tatum and Amile getting the lion's share of the minutes at the 4 and 5. Think about what a nightmare matchup Tatum is at the 4?!?! Yes, we will have to rebound as a team to make up for some of the size problems but Kennard and Allen are both good rebounders for guys who primarily play on the perimeter (each averaged better than a 10% DR% last season, by comparison, Matt Jones was just at 5.1%). Given his athleticism and strong body, I suspect Jackson may be a good D-rebounder too.

Now, when Giles is really ready, I think things will shift a bit. He and Jefferson and Tatum are all going to need 30+ minutes per game and that will certainly move Tatum to the 3 a good bit of the time. But the fist half-dozen or more games are likely to see a different Duke lineup from what we get in January and beyond.

-Jason "*-Duke Has No Positions" Evans

[superdave]

So, I think one of the things about "Phases" is that we need to accept that there will be a huge shift, likely some time in December, when Giles is ready to play. Prior to that, we are not going to be a team with a lot of high quality bigs. I suspect that Tatum will play a good bit of "4" (I know, DHNP*). From what we saw over the weekend, Bolden is still extremely raw. I expect him to play, but it may take some time for him to be more than 10-15 minutes in significant games. In fact, I won't be all that surprised if he and Jeter play a similar number of minutes, at least early in the year,.

So, I suspect we will see a lot of Matt, Jackson, Allen, and Kennard sharing the 1-3 positions early in the year with Tatum and Amile getting the lion's share of the minutes at the 4 and 5. Think about what a nightmare matchup Tatum is at the 4?!?! Yes, we will have to rebound as a team to make up for some of the size problems but Kennard and Allen are both good rebounders for guys who primarily play on the perimeter (each averaged better than a 10% DR% last season, by comparison, Matt Jones was just at 5.1%). Given his athleticism and strong body, I suspect Jackson may be a good D-rebounder too.

Now, when Giles is really ready, I think things will shift a bit. He and Jefferson and Tatum are all going to need 30+ minutes per game and that will certainly move Tatum to the 3 a good bit of the time. But the fist half-dozen or more games are likely to see a different Duke lineup from what we get in January and beyond.

-Jason "*-Duke Has No Positions" Evans

If Duke is going to maximize its defensive potential the first big game (Kansas), the upper classmen are going to play bigger minutes. That means Grayson, Matt and Amile and maybe Luke. We do not know yet whether Tatum can guard the 4 in crunchtime. Can Tatum check Braxton Bragg if Kansas stays big? Or will Duke need a second true big in addition to Amile? I think that is a big unknown as to how many minutes Tatum gets at the 4 at this point in the season.

I do think all this changes when Harry is available, and once the coaching staff knows what it can get from Bolden and Jeter. I guess I'm saying we know what we do not know, but we will know it after the Kansas game.

[-jk]

If Duke is going to maximize its defensive potential the first big game (Kansas), the upper classmen are going to play bigger minutes. That means Grayson, Matt and Amile and maybe Luke. We do not know yet whether Tatum can guard the 4 in crunchtime. Can Tatum check Braxton Bragg if Kansas stays big? Or will Duke need a second true big in addition to Amile? I think that is a big unknown as to how many minutes Tatum gets at the 4 at this point in the season.

I do think all this changes when Harry is available, and once the coaching staff knows what it can get from Bolden and Jeter. I guess I'm saying we know what we do not know, but we will know it after the Kansas game.

I have K's book on D (and his other one on O) from the mid-80's. Frosh just don't/can't get it... Can we bring back Foster for some zone work?

-jk

[jv001]

An incredible post, man! It was great to break down the incoming freshman and you nailed it with the questions that will be important to answer as we move through the preseason and advance towards November 11th. Here are the three things as I see it that are important to determine in this Phase 0:

1. How will the team gel? We saw with Countdown this past weekend and if you've been reviewing the videos that the team has been posting on social media throughout the summer and fall that the team seems to like each other and they already have camaraderie. It's a great mix of talent, youth, with just the right experience. How do they continue to gel on the court? That's what I will look for these next couple weeks. Who plays well with each other? Which rotations seem to be the most cohesive? Which players bring out the best game in others? No doubt that Coach K and the rest of the staff will be analyzing this during the two exhibition games.

2. There will be only one basketball. A gift and a curse is that there's only one basketball on the court. The gift is that we have probably 7 players who could get 20 points on any given night: Allen, Tatum, Giles, Kennard, Jefferson, Jones, and Jackson. The curse is that there just isn't enough shots for everyone to get 20 points every game. Who steps up if Allen has an off night? Who gets big on the glass when Jefferson isn't getting it done? Who's helping to distribute the ball? Who's locking down on D when Matt Jones gets into foul trouble? How will a player respond when getting 25 points in 30 minutes one night and then only getting 10 minutes the next? All that will come down to chemistry and leadership. I think we all feel the chemistry is there, and we have bonafide leaders in Jefferson, Jones and Allen to lead the team and show the freshmen how to tackle the inevitable January wall or to not get discouraged when they have an off night.

3. Taking Duke Defense to the next level. The key to this team will not be on offense, but on defense. They will take everyone's best shot every single night. Our offense may flounder at times and a couple guys may not have good nights shooting. But, our defense has to be there at all times and if we can do that, there will not be a team in the country that can mess with us. One team that I think this team can emulate is the 2000-2001 team. That team had the mix of talent and leadership that one needs, but one thing they did better than any team I've ever seen was talk on defense and concentrate on the defensive end to use that as momentum for their offensive output. Their defensive stops spurred their offense. They prided themselves on working hard on the defensive end every single possession, and I've never seen a team take pride in their defense, beating top 10 teams by 40. This team doesn't need to beat top 10 teams by 40, but this team has the ability to shut down any team they play if they concentrate on our patented Duke Defense, which will spur our offense to easy transition baskets. It will also be a lot of fun to watch.

Those are the things I'm looking for early on in the preseason. We don't have all our pieces together and while Harry Giles recovers, we will see a team that is still learning to properly play with each other. The results aren't important now. Getting sharper everyday is what I'm looking for.

I agree that defense will be key for this team to reach it's goal(/FF and NCAAC). We have some good defenders in Amile, Bolden, Giles, Matt and from the complement K gave Frank, I'll go out on a limb and add him to the list of good defenders. However it's the Duke team defense that's important. How fast the freshmen learn the defense is important. Each year I think this will be the season that Duke plays some full court pressure. Is this the year? GoDuke!

[NSDukeFan]

Oh, I think overall, Duke's a quick team. I think what you mean is that we're not sure who will defend quick point guards, which is a concern of mine and others as well. Nationally, that means who will do an adequate to good job on guys like Mason/Graham of Kansas, De'Aaron Fox of Kentucky, Jalen Brunson of Villanova, etc? And within the ACC, we have to deal with guys like Joel Berry, Ja'Quan Newton, Dennis Smith, and Seth Allen.

I don't know if I would classify this team as alarmingly quick. I hope Frank, Grayson and Matt do a good job in quick guards, because they will see a lot of them. Many teams play with 3 quick guards who won't be as good players as our guards but may be quicker. With basketball trending smaller and quicker the last few years, that is my biggest concern.
The flip side is that I feel this team will often have two big guys inside to challenge shots at the rim. I also believe Matt and Amile have the potential to lead a defense that talks really well and helps the freshmen understand positioning better than freshmen often do. I have low expectations for Harry that he will be Will Cauley-Stein on defense, able to guard every position and Karl-Anthony Towns on offense, able to efficiently score inside and out, hitting the odd jumper if necessary. All this after not playing for a year. Maybe I should temper my expectations. No matter what happens the team's last game of the year, I will enjoy this banner hunting journey. (I will be disappointed if this team doesn't hang any banners.)
By the way, awesome initial post, Newton_14.

[Kedsy]

One team that I think this team can emulate is the 2000-2001 team. That team had the mix of talent and leadership that one needs, but one thing they did better than any team I've ever seen was talk on defense and concentrate on the defensive end to use that as momentum for their offensive output. Their defensive stops spurred their offense. They prided themselves on working hard on the defensive end every single possession, and I've never seen a team take pride in their defense, beating top 10 teams by 40. This team doesn't need to beat top 10 teams by 40, but this team has the ability to shut down any team they play if they concentrate on our patented Duke Defense, which will spur our offense to easy transition baskets.

Well, the 2000-01 team had Shane Battier, which helped team defense immeasurably. And Chris Duhon, who was one of the better defensive PGs we've had at Duke. This year's team will not have anything close to either of those advantages. That said, the team in 2000-01 played nine top 10 teams and, while they did beat one of them by 40+, it certainly wasn't the norm. And it was singular (one game), not plural as you put it.

Here's the full list of teams in the top 10 when we played them in 2000-01:

#9 Illinois: Duke won by 1;
#3 Stanford: Duke lost by 1;
#10 UVa: Duke won by 42 (note that in the rematch, #12 UVa beat Duke by 2);
#9 Wake Forest: Duke won by 23 (note that in the rematch, #24 WF beat Duke by 2);
#8 Maryland: Duke won by 2 in OT (note that in the three rematches, #16 Md beat Duke by 11, Duke beat #11 Md by 2, and Duke beat #11 Md by 11, after what I believe was the biggest comeback in Final Four history);
#4 UNC: Duke lost by 2;
#4 UNC: Duke won by 14;
#6 UNC: Duke won by 26;
#5 Arizona: Duke won by 10.

In only 3 of the 9 games above did we exhibit particularly impressive defense (not surprisingly, the three games in which the final margin was 20+).

Overall, you're right that the 2000-01 team was good at forcing turnovers -- the 4th best Duke team at that in the past 20 seasons (behind the 2001-02 team, the 1997-98 team and the 1996-97 team). Looking at the rest of the four factors, the team was OK at opposing eFG% (8th best in past 20 seasons) and pretty good at opposing free throw rate (5th best in the past 20 seasons), but abysmal at defensive rebounding (3rd worst in the past 20 seasons, better only than 1996-97 and 1999-2000).

Personally, I don't expect this year's team to be defensively similar to the 2001 team. I expect this year's team will be much worse at forcing turnovers and much better at defensive rebounding. Hopefully better at opposing eFG% and who knows regarding opposing free throw rate. I expect this team will play more zone and won't force the opponents to start their offense nearly as far out as the 2001 team forced opponents. But I agree with you that this team has the potential to be strong at defensive communication and concentration, at least if our two seniors have anything to say about it.

[NM Duke Fan]

"But I agree with you that this team has the potential to be strong at defensive communication and concentration, at least if our two seniors have anything to say about it."

Your sentence to me sums up the essence of what I also see with the D, communication and focus should be helped immeasurably by the two seniors. From reading all the descriptions of the recent Blue White game, they were already showing some fine form in those deparments. This team may lack an exceptionally quick on the ball defender, and it does not have Shane. But hopefully with this intense senior leadership, an increasingly rare quality in college basketball, the D can get up to speed at a very healthy rate. The freshmen will be continually reminded of this essential element.

[Billy Dat]

As the national preview coverage hits hard and the polls start to come out, I have two additional thoughts:

-Can Grayson take the hype?
Grayson is the most high profile player in D1. He is being ranked by many as the best player in college basketball (not the best pro prospect, the best college player) and will carry that target. His tripping incidents also make him the most scrutinized college player. Duke is also preseason #1. Can he deal with it all?

-Can Duke take the hype?
This is Part B of the above. Duke is considered the best team on paper in a few years, and one of the best of recent vintage. That is on top of the usual target on Duke's back for being Duke. With that chance that we won't be full strength against Kansas and maybe even MSU, will an early season loss or two damage the psyche of this squad?

[David Bunkley]

As the national preview coverage hits hard and the polls start to come out, I have two additional thoughts:

-Can Grayson take the hype?
Grayson is the most high profile player in D1. He is being ranked by many as the best player in college basketball (not the best pro prospect, the best college player) and will carry that target. His tripping incidents also make him the most scrutinized college player. Duke is also preseason #1. Can he deal with it all?

-Can Duke take the hype?
This is Part B of the above. Duke is considered the best team on paper in a few years, and one of the best of recent vintage. That is on top of the usual target on Duke's back for being Duke. With that chance that we won't be full strength against Kansas and maybe even MSU, will an early season loss or two damage the psyche of this squad?

Yes, I believe Grayson has enough experience playing at a high level with a target on his back that the pressure that comes with his preseason hype should be manageable. Does this mean he'll put up all-world numbers? No. I expect Grayson's numbers to go down (except for assists) but his efficiency to remain high. This may cost him some post season awards, but I think he'll be fine with that as long as his draft stock isn't damaged and the team accomplishes their collective goal(s).

An early loss or two could happen, but it will be so far removed from conference and/or tournament play that I doubt it makes a difference on the final outcome of the season. More than likely, Duke will split those games (especially if Giles and Tatum don't play - which one or both of them may) and then destroy the rest of the non-conference, allowing them to enter conference play with a newly cleansed palate.

#GODUKE

[Troublemaker]

As the national preview coverage hits hard and the polls start to come out, I have two additional thoughts:

-Can Grayson take the hype?
Grayson is the most high profile player in D1. He is being ranked by many as the best player in college basketball (not the best pro prospect, the best college player) and will carry that target. His tripping incidents also make him the most scrutinized college player. Duke is also preseason #1. Can he deal with it all?

-Can Duke take the hype?
This is Part B of the above. Duke is considered the best team on paper in a few years, and one of the best of recent vintage. That is on top of the usual target on Duke's back for being Duke. With that chance that we won't be full strength against Kansas and maybe even MSU, will an early season loss or two damage the psyche of this squad?

I don't think we're coming into this season more over-hyped than the Kentucky team two seasons ago.