UNC Recruiting

[richardjackson199]

...

Roy hasn't held anybody back, it's another false narrative. He' s developing players to have long careers and they leave when they are ready or finish their eligibility.

Wheat, I also disagree. As noted, Roy's recruiting is way down. This is not just the scandal. Roy's ability to hold back players from leaving early for the NBA draft is incredible. I think there is a pattern from Roy’s tenure at UNC, where he has had 2 one and done players. I see that Oly and others have better analysis above. But this is just looking at UNC players under Roy’s tenure there:

--Justin Jackson was the #9 recruit in his class, a 5-star, and was co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game with Okafor. Jackson shot 11-12 in that game and led scoring with 23. At the 2016 NBA Draft combine he shot 5-14 in 2 scrimmages, confirmed he was not likely to be taken in the first or second round, and returned to UNC for his junior year.

--Theo Pinson was the #15 recruit in his class, a 5-star. He did not consider leaving early for the NBA and was not projected to be a first or 2nd round pick in 2016. He returns for his junior year.

--Isaiah Hicks was the # 14 recruit in his class, a 5-star. After learning that he was not projected to be a first or 2nd round pick in 2016, he opted to return for his senior year at UNC without testing the NBA draft waters.

--Joel Berry was the #25 recruit in his class, a 4-star. Berry and his family considered testing the waters, but decided not to after seeing that he was not projected to be a first or 2nd round pick in 2016. He opted to return for his junior year at UNC.

-- Kennedy Meeks was a 4 star recruit (#56) out of high school. Although he tried to test the NBA waters, he was not invited to the draft combine and decided to return to UNC for his senior year

--Roy got 4 years out of Brice Johnson (#40, 4 Star), taking all 4 years to showcase his elite athleticism (38 inch vertical, 8'10.5" standing reach, 7'0.5" Wingspan) and develop his touch to a level consistent enough to be drafted #25 in the first round. Johnson was a 4 star recruit out of high school, but by his sophomore year at UNC he was showing up on NBA Mock draft boards.

--Roy got 4 years out of Marcus Paige (#28, 4 Star), whose NBA draft stock fell dramatically from his sophomore to his senior season, after which he was taken #55 in the 2nd round. He was a 4 star guy out of high school who exploded to first team All-ACC his sophomore year.

--Roy's last player to leave "early" for the draft was JP Tokoto (#57, 4 star). JP left after 3 years at UNC and was selected 58th in the 2nd round in 2015. His non-guaranteed contract was waived by the 76ers after 5 preseason games and he played in the D-League.

--Then there was James Michael McAdoo in 2014. McAdoo was the #6 ranked player in his high school class and was projected as an NBA lottery pick after 1 year at UNC. He stayed 3 years at UNC and was undrafted in 2014. He was waived by the Warriors Oct. 2014 and played in the D-League until Jan. 2015. From Jan to Feb 2015 he bounced back and forth from the Warriors on 10 day contracts to the D-League. But by Feb. 2015 he made the Warriors and remains there.

--PJ Hairston (RSCI #13, 5-Star) is a special case. Apologies for all the detail, but it bears repeating to remember what was going on in Roy's program after the 20 years of fake classes for athletes ended. After his sophomore year at UNC in 2013, PJ was projected to be drafted in the first round, anywhere from spots 15-25. But he was having so much fun at UNC he also decided to come back for his junior year. Hairston was cited for speeding in May and in June for possession of weed and driving without a license. Both times he was in nice cars rented by convicted felon Fats Thomas. The May speeding incident was in an Orange Camaro SS. PJ screwed up again in late July when he was cited for reckless driving for going 93 in a 65 in his girlfriend's car. At that point, Roy suspended him from that July through Sept. 26, during the offseason. On Sept. 26, Roy announced that P.J. had earned the opportunity to practice again with the team. Roy said, "In 26 years as a head coach, I've never made the demands on a young man that I have made of P.J. … P.J. has done, to this point, everything he's been asked to do, and done it with an outstanding attitude and a sense of remorse for his actions which put him in this position. He knows he made a series of mistakes and understands very clearly that he embarrassed his family, our program and the University." The perception throughout that summer was that Hairston would be reinstated at some point during the year, especially after Cunningham told a group of university faculty members during a question-and-answer session Aug. 15 that Hairston would play this season "but not all the games." But somebody blabbed and threw a wrench in that plan. In Sept., it was reported to the NCAA by the mother of PJ's friend Miykael Faulcon, that PJ was driving the Camaro several times in spring 2013. Rental car receipts to Fats associates just for the Camaro were in excess of $5700. Faulcon's Mom said she was talking because she was annoyed that her son was suspended 9 games by the NCAA for these impermissable benefits. PJ by contrast had been asked to do some extra jumping jacks by Roy, but had done them with an outstanding attitude. A little snooping showed there were other links between Thomas' rental cars and UNC. Between February and May, four Hertz rental vehicles tied to Thomas – a GMC Yukon, a 2013 Chevrolet Tahoe, a 2013 Mercedes Benz 350 and the Camaro SS – received a total of 25 citations on the University of North Carolina campus. The Camaro SS received 13 citations in April and May. So UNC sat PJ out while this was unfolding. By Dec 2013 of that season, the NCAA cleared senior guard Leslie McDonald to play following a nine-game suspension for accepting benefits from "numerous individuals" during the spring and summer of 2013. McDonald must repay $1,833.36 to a charity of his choice for accepting benefits that included use of luxury cars, the payment of parking tickets, a cell phone and lodging. UNC ultimately did not seek reinstatement for PJ. That Dec. 2013 Bubba announced, "Unfortunately P.J. made a number of mistakes that placed his eligibility at risk and the university's joint review with the NCAA made it clear that seeking reinstatement for P.J. would not be possible." Roy reportedly was not happy with this decision. Roy - "I am extremely disappointed for P.J., his family and our team as he will no longer be playing basketball at North Carolina. P.J. made mistakes and I was very disappointed by his actions and now he is suffering the very difficult consequences. He is not a bad kid; he just made some mistakes. Since summer, P.J. has been outstanding with our basketball program and with his schoolwork. He went through an extremely intense conditioning program with flying colors. He has been called a "perfect teammate" by one of our other players. He has dominated our practices and at times has been as good as any perimeter player I have ever coached, giving great effort to help our team. He cares deeply about Carolina and the basketball program."
Per the official UNC basketball Twitter account, the Hairston situation was the biggest disappointment of Williams' coaching career: Roy - "From a personal standpoint this is the lowest I've come from in 26 years of coaching." PJ played in the D League spring 2014 and was taken #26 in the first round of the 2014 draft.

--Reggie Bullock (RSCI #14, 5-Star) left UNC in 2013 after 3 years in college. Roy famously had several conversations with Reggie to try to talk him out of the decision. Roy then publicly criticized Reggie for going against his advice and deciding to enter the draft. He stated he thought Reggie had the worst chance of any of his 12 former players to leave early of being drafted in the first round. “I’m more worried about Reggie than I have been any of those other guys, but gosh, what a great, great kid... But he is the one that I said, ‘Reggie, I don’t think this is the smartest thing to do.’" Reggie was right, not Roy. Reggie was taken #25 in the 2013 first round, same as Brice. Reggie still plays for the Pistons.

--Harrison Barnes was the #1 recruit in the country out of high school. Despite being considered a certain lottery and possible top 5 pick in the 2011 NBA draft, Barnes opted to return for his sophomore year at UNC. He was taken #7 in the first round of the 2012 draft.

--John Henson was the #4 ranked player in his high school class, a five-star. Roy kept him for 3 years. He was taken #14 in the 2012 draft.

--Tyler Zeller was the #19 ranked player in his high school class, a five star. Roy kept him 4 years. He was taken #17 in the first round of the 2012 draft. Interestingly, Tyler's younger brother Cody Zeller was the #12 rated player in his high school class. Despite being heavily recruited by UNC, he turned them down and chose Indiana. Cody left Indiana early after 2 years, where he was the fourth overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft.

--Kendall Marshall was the #28 ranked player in his high school class, a four star recruit. He played 2 years at UNC. So he did leave UNC early, and was taken as a first round lottery pick #13 in the 2012 draft. In August 2016 he was waived by the Utah Jazz.

--Ed Davis (RSCI #10, 5-star) shined in the 2009 national championship game as a freshman. He appeared on first round mock drafts and there was speculation he would leave, but he chose to return to UNC for his sophomore year. There was speculation that Roy Williams had been hiding Davis from NBA scouts because he played about 20 min/game for that team with Roy opting more for Deon Thompson. Davis shined in the postseason when it was clear he was better than Thompson. During that year while Davis was still at UNC, there was a weird controversy where Davis’s name and photo showed up on an agent’s website as a current client. Davis and his family admitted to meeting with the agent. When asked how Davis’s name and photo got on the website, the agent said it was the work of a hacker: http://acc.blogs.starnewsonline.com/...s-controversy/

Davis declared after his sophomore year and was taken #13 in the 2010 draft.

--Deon Thompson RSCI (#45, 4-star) played 4 years at UNC, went undrafted in 2010, and played in Europe.

--Marcus Ginyard (RSCI #29, 4-star) stayed 4 years and went undrafted in 2010.

--Ty Lawson – RSCI #5 amazingly stayed 3 years at UNC. He was taken #18 in the 2009 draft.

--Tyler Hansbrough RSCI #6 played 4 years for UNC and was taken #13 in the 2009 draft.

--Wayne Ellington RSCI #8 played 3 years at UNC. He was taken in the first round #28 in the 2009 NBA draft.

--Danny Green (RSCI #18, 5-star) played 4 years at UNC. In 2008 he declared himself eligible for the draft, but did not sign with an agent and ultimately decided to return to school for his senior year. He was then taken in the 2nd Round at #46 in the 2009 draft. He was waived by Cleveland after 20 games and played in the D-League. He then was picked up by the Spurs where he has had a very nice career.

--Bobby Frasor (RSCI #31, 4-star) played 4 years at UNC, went undrafted in 2009, and played in Europe.

--Brandan Wright (RSCI #3) was Roy’s second one and done player. It was clear after his freshman year he would be a top ten pick. He was taken #8 in the 2007 draft. He remains in the NBA and plays for Memphis.

--David Noel (2 Star, not highly ranked out of high school) played 4 years at UNC and was drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2006 NBA draft at #39. He played 1 year in the NBA before playing in the D-league and overseas.

--Raymond Felton (RSCI #3) played 3 years for UNC. He was taken #5 in the 2005 NBA Draft.

--Rashad McCants (RSCI #4) played 3 years for UNC which was a surprise for many at the time. Looking back, he admitted to not doing much classwork at UNC. In the 2005 draft he was taken #14. In June 2014, McCants claimed in an interview with ESPN Outside the Lines that he took phony classes and had tutors write his papers. He stated, “the truth is there in the transcripts” regarding the bogus classes. He expressed “knowledge of potential NCAA rule violations involving the University of North Carolina” per a letter signed by the athletics director of compliance. However, after this he refused to discuss the matter publicly. His sister, Rashanda McCants also sued UNC claiming that as a UNC Women’s basketball player she was steered to a “shadow curriculum” of sham “paper classes” which gave her an inferior education.

--Sean May – (RSCI #10) played 3 years for UNC. He was taken #13 in the 2005 NBA Draft lottery.

--Jawad Williams – (RSCI #11) played 4 years for UNC. He went undrafted in 2005. He played overseas, and played briefly in the NBA for the Cavs in 2009 on a non-guaranteed contract. He was waived in Feb 2009. He then played in the D-League and overseas.

--Marvin Williams – (RSCI #7) – Roy’s first one and done at UNC. He was taken with the 2nd overall pick in the 2005 NBA draft. He is still playing in the NBA. There was also speculation that Roy was hiding Marvin from NBA scouts his freshman year. Roy started Jawad Williams over Marvin that season, when Marvin was clearly better.

--Jackie Manuel (RSCI #25) played 4 years for UNC. He was undrafted in the 2005 draft and played some in the D-League.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Roy couldn't hold players back even if he wanted to. Kids and parents have direct feedback from the NBA and they make their own decisions. He just hasn't had OAD talent.

The simple truth is all the players you guys pointed to that had high rankings and "should" have or "could" have gone didn't impress the NBA and weren't going to get drafted high. Those rankings did not reflect NBA readiness, and it's unlikely playing anywhere else would have changed that.

It's rival coaches and fans who keep trying to play the "he holds you back" card... and, granted, with some success. But that still doesn't make it true.

[richardjackson199]

Roy couldn't hold players back even if he wanted to. Kids and parents have direct feedback from the NBA and they make their own decisions. He just hasn't had OAD talent.

The simple truth is all the players you guys pointed to that had high rankings and "should" have or "could" have gone didn't impress the NBA and weren't going to get drafted high. Those rankings did not reflect NBA readiness, and it's unlikely playing anywhere else would have changed that.

It's rival coaches and fans who keep trying to play the "he holds you back" card... and, granted, with some success. But that still doesn't make it true.

Maybe it's karma for the cheating.

[bob blue devil]

Maybe it's karma for the cheating.

or the lying about the cheating. or the lack of accountability. or the cars. or the drugs. or paid travel for tami. or the ejection of the presbyterian fan. or something i'm forgetting. or one of the many things that haven't come to light. it's got to be for one of those - right?

[BLPOG]

or the lying about the cheating. or the lack of accountability. or the cars. or the drugs. or paid travel for tami. or the ejection of the presbyterian fan. or something i'm forgetting. or one of the many things that haven't come to light. it's got to be for one of those - right?

Or the learning disability scam. And the adderall.

[BD80]

All recruiting threads devolve into discussion of unc's past recruiting and development of players.

[devildeac]

All recruiting threads devolve into discussion of unc's past recruiting and development of players.

And cheating.

[Kedsy]

Roy's ability to hold back players from leaving early for the NBA draft is incredible. I think there is a pattern from Roy’s tenure at UNC, where he has had 2 one and done players.

I am not a UNC apologist, and obviously the numbers can say lots of things depending on who's looking at them, but I think this sort of thing is a myth, similar to when people used to say Coach K couldn't develop big men (another clearly untrue myth).

First of all, looking at one-and-dones in a timeframe going from 2003 to 2016 is misleading, due to two events: the one-and-done rule being implemented going into the 2006-07 season, and John Calipari coaching at Kentucky, starting with the 2009-10 season. But even using your timeframe, here are some facts for you:

(1) During Roy's tenure at UNC he's had 12 players with recruiting rankings outside the top 5 but inside the top 15. Of those, 7 left UNC early (8 if Jackson leaves after this season), for a percentage of 58.3% (or 66.7%). In the same timeframe, Duke has had 11 such players, but only 4 of them left early (36.4%). Looking at individuals, yeah, #14 Isaiah Hicks is playing his 4th year at UNC, but so did #14 Ryan Kelly; and #15 Theo Pinson seems destined to be a four-year player, but so does #14 Chase Jeter. For top 15 players outside the top 5, Duke has kept a much higher percentage for four years than UNC.

(2) During Roy's tenure at UNC, he's had 5 players with recruiting rankings of 20 or worse get drafted by the NBA (maybe 6 or 7, if Berry and/or Meeks gets drafted). In the same timeframe, Duke has had only two such players get drafted (Miles Plumlee and Daniel Ewing), with the possibility of up to three more (if Grayson, Luke, and/or Amile get drafted). So, at best this category -- which frankly shows "development" more than anything else discussed in this thread -- will be a wash for Duke. More likely, it will look like a small advantage for UNC, possibly a large advantage.

(3) While the one-and-done rule started with the 2006 high school class, things changed dramatically in the NCAA when John Calipari made that ridiculous announcement that getting five guys taken in the first round was the best day in UK history. After that, it seemed leaving after one year carried more status to the typical recruit. Before John Calipari's first year at UK (2009-10), Roy Williams at UNC had recruited five top 5 guys, and in the same time period Duke recruited two top 5 guys. Each school had one top 5 guy go OAD in the period. But since Calipari started at UK, UNC has only had one top 5 recruit (Barnes, who left after his sophomore season), while Duke has had 7 (including Harry and Jayson). And while it's true that if Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum are OAD, then all 7 Duke guys will have left after one season, the real reason UNC doesn't have more OADs is they haven't had a top 5 recruit since Harrison Barnes.

The minor details that Barnes stayed two years when he could have left after one; that #6 McAdoo went undrafted after three years while #6 Kyle Singler went in the 2nd round after four years; and that #9 Jackson has stayed 3 years at UNC while #13 Justise Winslow was OAD, may appear to show a pattern that may have been exploited by competing coaches on the recruiting circuit, but in my mind are more likely isolated data points that prove little if anything. And the datapoints before 2010 prove even less -- while #4 Hansbrough and #15 Green stayed four years, and #4 McCants, #3 Felton, #9 May, and #5 Lawson all stayed three years, it's also true that #6 Chris Duhon, #8 Shelden Williams, #11 JJ Redick, and #13 Greg Paulus all stayed four years, while #14 Shav Randolph stayed three (and went undrafted).

So I don't think Roy has had problems "developing" players, or that he "holds players back." Instead, I think the world changed in 2010, and that Coach K has outrecruited Roy by a country mile since then, and those two things mask everything else.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

It's easy for us to want to group players into "his 5* players" and look for a pattern, but all these players are so individually different, and the sample size so small, it just makes any conclusions hard to make.

Compare Justin Jackson to Justise Winslow. Two different style players, but both 5* guys with a lot of talent.

Winslow had a great freshman season on a team that won a title and cashed in as a OAD. Good for him.

Jackson has played well but is still developing his game in college.

The big difference? Winslow came into college physically mature. Probably more mentally mature too. He was a tough minded player from day one. He was ready for the next step.

Jackson came in thin as a rail, quiet...even timid at times, after being home schooled and playing in weaker HS competition. He's just taking longer to mature than Winslow did. Both 5* guys but totally different situations relevant to their readiness for the NBA as freshman.

That's why 5* rankings are inaccurate when used to predict whether a player should be OAD.

Side note: Jackson has hit the weight room. I saw video/photo's of him and he's stronger. He's still a long, thin guy, and his offense is more finesse, but he'll be tougher. He's developing. Last season he started to play stronger, more physical than he did as a freshman. He was told he had to by the NBA, so you know he will this season too.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

...,,So I don't think Roy has had problems "developing" players, or that he "holds players back." Instead, I think the world changed in 2010, and that Coach K has outrecruited Roy by a country mile since then, and those two things mask everything else.

Some solid reasoning in the main post.

But, I'll disagree with this statement and make the argument that Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting despite some great challenges the past few seasons.

The point of recruiting is to build competitive teams for titles, not who can sign the most top 5 ranked talented players according to somebody else's opinion.

Roy's teams have been every bit as competitive as coach K's teams, so without the top talent, maybe Roy has evaluated players better?😃

[Li_Duke]

Some solid reasoning in the main post.

But, I'll disagree with this statement and make the argument that Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting despite some great challenges the past few seasons.

The point of recruiting is to build competitive teams for titles, not who can sign the most top 5 ranked talented players according to somebody else's opinion.

Roy's teams have been every bit as competitive as coach K's teams, so without the top talent, maybe Roy has evaluated players better?😃

If you argued that Roy has managed to keep his team competitive, despite some difficulty recruiting as the level he previously did, I would agree. But you have to be kidding yourself if you think Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting. I doubt Roy himself would agree with your statement; Roy himself says that the academic scandal has affected recruiting to the point where he would have preferred a quick punishment instead. You can't seriously think that Roy wouldn't have wanted Ingram, Giles, or other top players. I think those were probably top 5 ranked players according to Roy's opinion too. I understand that you are a UNC loyalist, but some truths are just too obvious to ignore.

[Ichabod Drain]

Some solid reasoning in the main post.

But, I'll disagree with this statement and make the argument that Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting despite some great challenges the past few seasons.

The point of recruiting is to build competitive teams for titles, not who can sign the most top 5 ranked talented players according to somebody else's opinion.

Roy's teams have been every bit as competitive as coach K's teams, so without the top talent, maybe Roy has evaluated players better?��

Roy has offered a ton of the top talent in recent classes and spent a large amount of time and energy recruiting those players. He's hardly landed any of them. K has landed a lot of them. I think that is what was meant by K out-recruiting Roy.

For reference in the 2016 class Roy offered six of the top ten players and landed zero of them. K offered three top ten players and landed two of them.

ETA: If you extend that to the top 15 from 2016 Roy went 0/10. K went 4/7.

[bob blue devil]

Here's my not so bold prediction - 2 years from now Wheat will be absent from these boards because uncheat will be obviously far from title contention. Results of the "Ole Roy the great developer" theory will be there for all to see.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

If you argued that Roy has managed to keep his team competitive, despite some difficulty recruiting as the level he previously did, I would agree. But you have to be kidding yourself if you think Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting. I doubt Roy himself would agree with your statement; Roy himself says that the academic scandal has affected recruiting to the point where he would have preferred a quick punishment instead. You can't seriously think that Roy wouldn't have wanted Ingram, Giles, or other top players. I think those were probably top 5 ranked players according to Roy's opinion too. I understand that you are a UNC loyalist, but some truths are just too obvious to ignore.

Of course Roy wants to sign the top players.

But again, the point of recruiting is to put together teams to challenge for titles. Roy has done that equal to coach K.

Can you argue that Coach K's ability to sign more five stars lately makes Duke more competitive than than UNC?

I don't think so.

[Li_Duke]

Here's my not so bold prediction - 2 years from now Wheat will be absent from these boards because uncheat will be obviously far from title contention. Results of the "Ole Roy the great developer" theory will be there for all to see.

I hope the part about UNC being obviously far from title contention is true (but not necessarily the part about Wheat being absent from the boards because he does offer a UNC perspective without being hostile or nasty). However, I have a feeling they will bounce back. They are skating on the academic issue. They just went to the national championship game and will be a solid team this year. They have money; they have alumni who are powerful and influential in the field of basketball; they have history (and while some will see that history as tarnished, others will not). I think best case scenario is that they go the way of UCLA post John Wooden, but they won't disappear completely barring a surprising punishment for the academic scandal.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Here's my not so bold prediction - 2 years from now Wheat will be absent from these boards because uncheat will be obviously far from title contention. Results of the "Ole Roy the great developer" theory will be there for all to see.

Wishful thinking, I've been around here since about 1997 and see no need to leave as long as things stay reasonably civil.

Roy already has a good jump on future recruiting. He has verbal commitments from Jalek Felton, Reachy Black and Colby White, among others, for a solid future foundation.

[Li_Duke]

Of course Roy wants to sign the top players.

But again, the point of recruiting is to put together teams to challenge for titles. Roy has done that equal to coach K.

Can you argue that Coach K's ability to sign more five stars lately makes Duke more competitive than than UNC?

I don't think so.

I certainly can argue that. UNC has been as good as they have been because their players stayed longer than expected relative to their HS rankings. Either 1) that is by design or 2) that is by chance. If 1), then players of those rankings will probably be less likely to commit to UNC in the future. If 2), you can't necessarily count on that in the future. The ability to recruit at a higher level therefore makes Duke's success more sustainable than UNC, if all else is equal.

You can argue that Roy ability to develop less talented players into contributors offsets Coach K's recruiting advantage. Or that the downtown in recruiting is a blip that will correct itself now that the academic scandal is nearly resolved. But recruiting ability is definitely a big edge in Duke's favor at the moment.

[bob blue devil]

However, I have a feeling they will bounce back.

Eventually, yes. But the team 2 years from now is actually close to being in place. And I suspect it's not going to be what we've come to expect from UNC (on the court, I didn't mean to pay them a compliment).

[bob blue devil]

Wishful thinking, I've been around here since about 1997 and see no need to leave as long as things stay reasonably civil.

Roy already has a good jump on future recruiting. He has verbal commitments from Jalek Felton, Reachy Black and Colby White, among others, for a solid future foundation.

If memory serves, you've had some extended time away coincident with lean years at unc, no?

[Li_Duke]

Eventually, yes. But the team 2 years from now is actually close to being in place. And I suspect it's not going to be what we've come to expect from UNC (on the court, I didn't mean to pay them a compliment).

I strongly suspect they will get another big piece in recruiting. Some player is going to see a storied program with the chance to play big minutes in a starting role and jump at it. 2 years from now, they will still have a solid starting back court in seniors Berry and Pinson (they may even still have Jackson), freshman Felton, a solid center in Bradley, two potential bench contributors in Robinson and Woods, and someone who will take that last starting spot. That's still probably a ranked program, even if it may not be a title contender.