FB: Duke 20, Virginia 34

[richardjackson199]

The Line: Duke is favored by 3.5. So it should be a good, fun game.
Former Player Day and it's Homecoming.
Weather: High 75 and Sunny
Let's fill Wallace Wade Up! This Duke team deserves it. This is a big game, let's get a win and support Duke like we do in Cameron! Continue our momentum.
I hope our team continues the formula of having fun and positive energy. We can help with the energy.

[Tom B.]

Weather: High 75 and Sunny

Inside the parabolic sun reflector known as Wallace Wade Stadium, that might actually be borderline tolerable. Though a few clouds (no rain, though) wouldn't hurt.

[Reilly]

There's an open men's hoops practice Saturday morning, too, so a fun day to go from Cameron to Wallace Wade.

[Olympic Fan]

There's an open men's hoops practice Saturday morning, too, so a fun day to go from Cameron to Wallace Wade.

Open practice is 9:30 to 11:30 am ... no reserved seating ... everything in the upper deck is first-come, first served.

Parking is pretty limited -- I assume most will park in their football spots, then head for the game after the practice.

[Reilly]

Cut's Duke teams are 6-2 against Virginia.

Only two losses came in C'ville.

Duke 33-34 all-time against Virginia.

[BigWayne]

FYI for those of us not covered by local stations on the ACC network, the game is supposed to be on the ESPN College Extra package:

http://www.espn.com/espncollegeextra/

For DirecTV, these games come on channels 788-798. They probably won't show up in the channel list until Thursday or Friday.

[Avvocato]

I feel like we say this every week, but this is a very big game for us. After a huge win like that (vs. ND), there could be a hangover. We beat Notre Dame, because we were well prepared and ready to fight for 60 minutes. It's often hard to get up and play at that level every week. Hopefully we ride the confidence and wave from last Saturday into this weekend. We want to build something after last weekend. Let's put ND out of our mind, focus on Virginia, and handle business this weekend. Getting to 3-2 after our 1-2 start would be huge. Let's take care of business.

[loran16]

Some Depth Chart changes for Duke this week, along the lines of what Cut said (see Jim Sumner's post in the other thread about Cut's words today).

On Offense: Quay Chambers is listed as a co-Starter along with Jonathan Lloyd at slot receiver. Chambers was a big help in the win over Notre Dame and I suspect he gets a lot more burn in this one as well.
On Defense: Alonzo Saxton is listed as Devon Edwards' replacement (as he was in the ND game), with True Frosh Dylan Singleton listed as the backup (Rover Safety). Although apparently Cut said that Jordan Hayes, who's listed as the backup at (Bandit) Safety behind Deondre Singleton may get split the role with Saxton. Would be exciting to see how well the younger Singleton can do in extended action as one of our best recruits this past class (Singleton has played 55 snaps this year, a third as many as the other two guys).

(Depth Chart can be found in the game notes here: http://www1.nmnathletics.com/fls/420...184.1472961088)

Okay about Virginia:

Football Study Hall has already started tracking the advanced statistical profiles of every NCAA FBS team this year. The stats do include some weighting of data from prior seasons - it's about 2/3 this year and 1/3 last year now - but they give us a decent picture of what to expect from our opponents. Here's Virginia's profile:
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pag...stical-profile

Virginia's Offense is slightly above average - 47th in the Nation. Their D however is atrocious 107th in the nation. For comparison, Duke is 79th on Offense and 36th in Defense, so slightly more balanced. Moreover, Notre Dame's Offense was 14th in the Nation and Defense was 78th - so better than UVA in both areas. So figure Virginia very much as having similar strengths to ND, but weaker in both areas.

On Offense: Virginia is solid but unspectacular on the ground - but they just don't run that often. Like Duke, they rely on two running backs: Senior Albert Reid, averaging 6 Yards per carry and Taquan Mizzell (another senior) averaging 5.3 YPC. These are pretty good numbers - but a large part of that is because Virginia doesn't rush often - On Standard Downs (downs where runs and passes are both seemingly plausible options like 1st down, 2nd and 7, or 3rd and 4), Virginia rushes only 39.6% of the time. By Comparison, Duke rushes 50.3% of the time on the same downs and the National average is 59.6%. We can't look past the running game (again, the numbers are good) but it's not their main attack.

Passing wise, UVA's QB is Kurt Benkert, a junior transfer from ECU. This is his first game vs Duke, so we've never seen him before. On one hand, he's solidly accurate - a 60.8% completion rate - and has ten TDs to 5 Interceptions. On the other hand, he tends to throw short - only 6.1 Yards Per Attempt. For Comparison, Daniel Jones is better at throwing longer and at a higher % rate, although he doesn't have the touchdowns. So Benkert is a solid but unspectacular QB. Note, he's a pocket passer - only 11 rushes all year, so don't expect designed run plays for him.

UVA throws to four guys primarily - Senior Keeon Johnson gets the most targets but isn't great at catching (but he's a big 6'3), sophomore Olamide Zacchaus is 2nd in targets but is HIGHLY efficient - catching 22 of 27 targets for 13.6 Yards per catch is pretty damn good. Then there's Junior Doni Dowling, who's got the most yards per catch, but is in between the other two guys in terms of catching. The last receiver used is actually the senior running back Mizzell, who seems to be a strong pass catcher - I'm guessing there are a lot of screens or check downs here.

I suspect we'll put Breon on Johnson and Fields on Zacchaus, although they may switch off, and the Safetys and LBs will cover the other guys.

------
Defensively, again, UVA isn't good. They have 10 sacks and actually have been solid at defending the run the last two weeks after struggling vs Richmond (lol) and Oregon (Understandable). But they've allowed a LOT of big plays and aren't good at stopping even just the little plays needed to move the chains.

Despite the Sacks, UVA has been terrible against the pass this year, allowing a TON of big plays and plenty of completions. Daniel Jones should have opportunities.

Again, Duke should be able to play the same type of game they did against ND - high scoring while the D makes timely plays, and should find more success. The only edge UVA has on ND is that they can actually get to the QB, which might rush Jones a bit more, but given their bad pass defense numbers, I suspect their covering capabilities of our WRs will leave a lot to be desired, giving Jones plenty of options even if rushed.

[richardjackson199]

Some Depth Chart changes for Duke this week, along the lines of what Cut said (see Jim Sumner's post in the other thread about Cut's words today).

On Offense: Quay Chambers is listed as a co-Starter along with Jonathan Lloyd at slot receiver. Chambers was a big help in the win over Notre Dame and I suspect he gets a lot more burn in this one as well.
On Defense: Alonzo Saxton is listed as Devon Edwards' replacement (as he was in the ND game), with True Frosh Dylan Singleton listed as the backup (Rover Safety). Although apparently Cut said that Jordan Hayes, who's listed as the backup at (Bandit) Safety behind Deondre Singleton may get split the role with Saxton. Would be exciting to see how well the younger Singleton can do in extended action as one of our best recruits this past class (Singleton has played 55 snaps this year, a third as many as the other two guys).

(Depth Chart can be found in the game notes here: http://www1.nmnathletics.com/fls/420...184.1472961088)

Okay about Virginia:

Football Study Hall has already started tracking the advanced statistical profiles of every NCAA FBS team this year. The stats do include some weighting of data from prior seasons - it's about 2/3 this year and 1/3 last year now - but they give us a decent picture of what to expect from our opponents. Here's Virginia's profile:
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pag...stical-profile

Virginia's Offense is slightly above average - 47th in the Nation. Their D however is atrocious 107th in the nation. For comparison, Duke is 79th on Offense and 36th in Defense, so slightly more balanced. Moreover, Notre Dame's Offense was 14th in the Nation and Defense was 78th - so better than UVA in both areas. So figure Virginia very much as having similar strengths to ND, but weaker in both areas.

On Offense: Virginia is solid but unspectacular on the ground - but they just don't run that often. Like Duke, they rely on two running backs: Senior Albert Reid, averaging 6 Yards per carry and Taquan Mizzell (another senior) averaging 5.3 YPC. These are pretty good numbers - but a large part of that is because Virginia doesn't rush often - On Standard Downs (downs where runs and passes are both seemingly plausible options like 1st down, 2nd and 7, or 3rd and 4), Virginia rushes only 39.6% of the time. By Comparison, Duke rushes 50.3% of the time on the same downs and the National average is 59.6%. We can't look past the running game (again, the numbers are good) but it's not their main attack.

Passing wise, UVA's QB is Kurt Benkert, a junior transfer from ECU. This is his first game vs Duke, so we've never seen him before. On one hand, he's solidly accurate - a 60.8% completion rate - and has ten TDs to 5 Interceptions. On the other hand, he tends to throw short - only 6.1 Yards Per Attempt. For Comparison, Daniel Jones is better at throwing longer and at a higher % rate, although he doesn't have the touchdowns. So Benkert is a solid but unspectacular QB. Note, he's a pocket passer - only 11 rushes all year, so don't expect designed run plays for him.

UVA throws to four guys primarily - Senior Keeon Johnson gets the most targets but isn't great at catching (but he's a big 6'3), sophomore Olamide Zacchaus is 2nd in targets but is HIGHLY efficient - catching 22 of 27 targets for 13.6 Yards per catch is pretty damn good. Then there's Junior Doni Dowling, who's got the most yards per catch, but is in between the other two guys in terms of catching. The last receiver used is actually the senior running back Mizzell, who seems to be a strong pass catcher - I'm guessing there are a lot of screens or check downs here.

I suspect we'll put Breon on Johnson and Fields on Zacchaus, although they may switch off, and the Safetys and LBs will cover the other guys.

------
Defensively, again, UVA isn't good. They have 10 sacks and actually have been solid at defending the run the last two weeks after struggling vs Richmond (lol) and Oregon (Understandable). But they've allowed a LOT of big plays and aren't good at stopping even just the little plays needed to move the chains.

Despite the Sacks, UVA has been terrible against the pass this year, allowing a TON of big plays and plenty of completions. Daniel Jones should have opportunities.

Again, Duke should be able to play the same type of game they did against ND - high scoring while the D makes timely plays, and should find more success. The only edge UVA has on ND is that they can actually get to the QB, which might rush Jones a bit more, but given their bad pass defense numbers, I suspect their covering capabilities of our WRs will leave a lot to be desired, giving Jones plenty of options even if rushed.

Great Breakdown. I just remember "Smoke" Mizzell can be a big play guy - watch out for him. Last year he broke the ACC single-season record for receiving yards by a running back (721). His 75 receptions led the team and rank #2 in ACC history. He can fly - they don't call him Smoke for nothin. Shut him down. This article basically just elaborates:

http://www.espn.com/blog/acc/post/_/...ffense-in-2016

[gep]

...

Again, Duke should be able to play the same type of game they did against ND - high scoring while the D makes timely plays, and should find more success. The only edge UVA has on ND is that they can actually get to the QB, which might rush Jones a bit more, but given their bad pass defense numbers, I suspect their covering capabilities of our WRs will leave a lot to be desired, giving Jones plenty of options even if rushed.

I thought I read in prior posts that in the ND game, Jones had a relatively quick read and release... 1.5 seconds? If so, VA's pass rush may not be all that effective... plus the bad pass defense.

GO DUKE!!!!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Big big game. We need to channel our Big MO into a win this weekend and not suffer a "Super Bowl" hangover.

[Richard Berg]

Duke QB Daniel Jones leads all
freshmen nationally in pass completions
(92), passing yards (1,090) &
total offensive yards (1,190)

Hadn't seen that before. Impressive.

[BigWayne]

I thought I read in prior posts that in the ND game, Jones had a relatively quick read and release... 1.5 seconds? If so, VA's pass rush may not be all that effective... plus the bad pass defense.

GO DUKE!!!!

I watched the ND game again last night. Was just as good or better the 2nd time.

They did some coverage of the quick passing on the broadcast and I started paying attention as a result. Short passes were at 1.5 seconds like you mention. Longer plays downfield were at 2.5 to 3 seconds. They made a statement that Cutcliffe had told them a QB needs to get rid of the ball in 2.8 seconds.

[Wahoo2000]

Note to you guys - our coverage vs the pass is absolutely the worst I've ever seen from a Virginia team. Our ONLY hope to stop pass plays comes by pressuring the QB, or just a straight up mistake/inaccurate throw or drop.

Last week, we were rolling central Michigan because they were putting 4 and 5 guys out on patterns consistently, and our pass rush was getting there quickly. CMU's adjustment? They max protected and just ran out 2, occasionally 3 guys on routes. We were only rushing 4, sometimes blitzing and bringing a 5th guy. We couldn't cover 2-3 guys with 6-7 players. Not even close. Their completion percentage on plays where they had 2 receivers and we had 7 guys back in a zone or a zone/man combo was unbelievable... probably north of 75%. Just extremely slow and horrible zone instincts from the vast majority of DBs and LBs.

We'll only have success vs the pass against teams with QBs that are absolutely terrible with reads/accuracy... unless the zone issues are due in part to guys still learning the system Mendenhall and staff have installed. We might get a little bit better, but the only way UVA is in this game with Duke is if we score 30+, which I don't really expect. I think the 3.5 number is low based on how our O kind of exploded last week. I'd guess this one ends up somewhere around Duke 34 - UVA 21.

Oh, and as an addendum - we have no FG kicker. Literally nobody on the roster who would be relied on to kick a FG longer than 29 yards. Even inside that range is an adventure, with a missed 20 yard chip shot on the last play vs UConn, and multiple missed XPts. Basically, we'll play like a high school team anywhere outside the 10 and go for it on 4th down.

[budwom]

uh oh. Duncan out for the game...might we see freshman Brown?

And evidently Bere (LB) is out for the season...bad news...but we do have some good young talent, guys like Quonsah, and perhaps Hill, who can step in. Big loss nonetheless...

[Bob Green]

Duke will wear blue helmets, blue jerseys and white pants this week:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtiZ-rXWIAIcohS.jpg

[duke79]

Duke will wear blue helmets, blue jerseys and white pants this week:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtiZ-rXWIAIcohS.jpg

Maybe it is just the color of the photo, but shouldn't the "blue" jersey match the "blue" helmet? The jersey looks almost black to me. Otherwise, I like this uniform scheme.

[devildeac]

Maybe it is just the color of the photo, but shouldn't the "blue" jersey match the "blue" helmet? The jersey looks almost black to me. Otherwise, I like this uniform scheme.

Must be my old eyes, too. That jersey looks mighty black to me with (Jack) white and Pantone 287 stripes and white numbers and other adornments.

[Bob Green]

Perhaps it is my eyes. I have two pairs of glasses but routinely wear neither.

[loran16]

It's black, blue black white.