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  1. #121
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    I don't know what Vegas and the wiseguys know that Joe Q bettor doesn't know. But it seems weird that they know Notre Dame's defense would give up that many points to a Duke team who scored 13 on Northwestern and 14 on Wake Forest.
    I had an exchange going with a Golden Domer buddy during the game and he was pretty shocked at my Duke pessimism going into the matchup. He explicitly told me that I had more faith in ND than the great majority of their fanbase. I think he mistook a real skepticism that Duke football could compete in a rebuilding year for faith in their squad.

    Anyway, it didn't take a sharp to know that Notre Dame's defense has been a sewer grate this season so far, coming in with zero sacks and giving away points like candy on Halloween. My buddy told me he expected the DCoordinator to be fired if the game was even close, and hey, here we are. The two teams almost hit the OVER by halftime (O/U 60.5, halftime score 28-21). That was reached comfortably in the third qtr. It was beautiful to see Duke take full advantage where the men struggled for the previous two weeks.

    I'll remember this one for a long time. Not coincidentally, the in-game exchange I had going was awfully quiet for the latter 2/3 of game action.

  2. #122
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Winston-Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Oh, they knew something. The sites that track betting percentages had ND receiving 75-80% of the bets, but the line was never adjusted upwards. In fact, there was actually reverse line movement in that sometimes the line was lowered to 19.5 / 20 / 20.5 to encourage more ND action.

    For those interested in that kind of stuff, ESPN now has a page where you can track betting percentages: http://www.espn.com/espn/chalk/liveOdds . Currently, re: Duke vs UVA, 58% of the bets are on Duke to cover the spread.

    (Note, though, that percentage of bets made on a team does NOT have to equal percentage of money on a team. What the sportsbooks probably knew re: Duke at ND was that their sharp bettors were taking Duke, and the sharps make bigger bets than the average Joe Q. Public bettor. When the books know that the sharps are on one side [Duke] and the public is on the other side [ND], they are fine encouraging more public bets.)
    For another example of a possible Vegas trap bet - yesterday the Arizona Cardinals were only a 4 point favorite over the Buffalo Bills. The Bills entered the game 0-2 and had looked atrocious on both sides of the ball in those 2 losses. Rex had fired their offensive coordinator. Arizona is well-coached. The Cardinals by contrast were a missed field goal away from beating the Patriots and entering that Bills game 2-0. The Cardinals had just blown out Tampa Bay and were being generally regarded as a super bowl contender. That line opened Arizona -6.5 and dropped to Arizona -4. I'm guessing some Joe Q Publics bet on Arizona only giving up 4 points.

    Buffalo won 33-18. Coincidence maybe. But curious.

    I don't really understand this stuff like Troublemaker, but it smells fishy. I don't know how much money gets bet on football, but I imagine it's quite a bit.
    Last edited by richardjackson199; 09-26-2016 at 03:50 PM.

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Top 5 Plays:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwC3...ature=youtu.be

    Three minutes and 43 seconds of joy!

    5. Quay Chambers 25 yard touchdown reception.
    4. Defense forces three turnovers.
    3. Anthony Nash 64 yard touchdown reception.
    2. A.J. Reed 18 yard game winning FG.
    1. Shaun Wilson 96 yard kick-off return for a TD.
    Bob Green

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Top 5 Plays:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwC3...ature=youtu.be

    Three minutes and 43 seconds of joy!

    5. Quay Chambers 25 yard touchdown reception.
    4. Defense forces three turnovers.
    3. Anthony Nash 64 yard touchdown reception.
    2. A.J. Reed 18 yard game winning FG.
    1. Shaun Wilson 96 yard kick-off return for a TD.
    I can't believe you listed all them and spoiled the fun for the rest of us .

    (kidding, kidding)

    Thanks.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  5. #125
    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    I don't know what Vegas and the wiseguys know that Joe Q bettor doesn't know. But it seems weird that they know Notre Dame's defense would give up that many points to a Duke team who scored 13 on Northwestern and 14 on Wake Forest.
    Unless there was outright manipulation, they would have had to had inside information that the ND defense was in disarray, or that Jones was looking very good in recent practices. The ND pass rush was pretty feeble. Were a few of the starters hurting?

  6. #126
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Winston-Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ipatent View Post
    Unless there was outright manipulation, they would have had to had inside information that the ND defense was in disarray, or that Jones was looking very good in recent practices. The ND pass rush was pretty feeble. Were a few of the starters hurting?
    Jones certainly looked great against Notre Dame, especially compared to his previous 2 games. Cut did mention he had a great week of practice, so maybe that was it. I have heard lots of blame for Notre Dame's poor pass rush and defense. That is fair, but Jones was getting rid of the ball so quickly (like in 1.5 seconds usually I believe) that I'm not sure a better pass rush would have mattered. Their Defensive Coordinator was also trying to give us different looks for coverage, but that didn't matter much either.

    If I were Notre Dame, I would put more of the blame on their offense. They had several quality receivers who looked like they could torch us at will (as seen on a few of their drives). After the first 2 scores, they seemed more stubbornly intent on trying to establish their run game. This burned some clock, stalled some drives, and worked to our advantage. And when they did throw, why did Kizer keep throwing to Borders' man? Borders is tied for first in the FBS in interceptions, and he could have easily had another one on Kizer that he dropped. Why were they kicking off to DeVon Edwards and Shaun Wilson? Did they even scout us? Their offense also made some very costly turnovers on their end of the field. That ended up being the difference. I don't know how anyone could have predicted us winning the turnover battle after the turnover problems we had in the 3 previous games. Also, Kizer could have probably scrambled for some first downs, but he seemed to choke under pressure late in the game.

    Their defense did stop us on a couple big fourth and ones. They also had some nice coverage on Rahming deep and came up with an interception. Their defense gave up some costly big plays, but Duke ran some beautiful misdirection offensive sets on those plays. I think their defense would have been smarter to load up more and stop our run. We finally got some nice rushing yards from Duncan and Wilson.

    Our young team really played well, minimized mistakes, and took full advantage of their opportunity. They picked a good day to do it!
    Last edited by richardjackson199; 09-26-2016 at 06:06 PM.

  7. #127
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    For another example of a possible Vegas trap bet - yesterday the Arizona Cardinals were only a 4 point favorite over the Buffalo Bills. The Bills entered the game 0-2 and had looked atrocious on both sides of the ball in those 2 losses. Rex had fired their offensive coordinator. Arizona is well-coached. The Cardinals by contrast were a missed field goal away from beating the Patriots and entering that Bills game 2-0. The Cardinals had just blown out Tampa Bay and were being generally regarded as a super bowl contender. That line opened Arizona -6.5 and dropped to Arizona -4. I'm guessing some Joe Q Publics bet on Arizona only giving up 4 points.

    Buffalo won 33-18. Coincidence maybe. But curious.

    I don't really understand this stuff like Troublemaker, but it smells fishy. I don't know how much money gets bet on football, but I imagine it's quite a bit.
    One of the major biases that contributes to these sorts of things is recency bias. People tend to put too much stock in the most recent occurrences and overestimate the likelihood that these recent occurrences will continue. Said differently, people tend to underestimate the chances that a team will play differently (sometimes very differently) from one game to another. And Vegas knows this. They know that John Q saw the Cards-Pats game. They know that John Q saw the Tampa Bay blowout. And they know that John Q will overestimate the likelihood that the Cards will play that way again.

    But this is DBR, so come basketball season in particular, you'll experience this phenomenon firsthand.

    - Chillin

  8. #128
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Top 5 Plays:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwC3...ature=youtu.be

    Three minutes and 43 seconds of joy!

    5. Quay Chambers 25 yard touchdown reception.
    4. Defense forces three turnovers.
    3. Anthony Nash 64 yard touchdown reception.
    2. A.J. Reed 18 yard game winning FG.
    1. Shaun Wilson 96 yard kick-off return for a TD.
    Thanks Bob! That was a really great video! Loved it! On a side note, every time I watch the replay of Shaun's TD Runback, I am still amazed at the speed of Number 27 of Notre Dame. Watching him come into the picture having run from clear on the other side of the field I'm like wow! I am very glad he was not on the same side of the field. Shaun is extremely fast, but not sure #27 doesn't run him down from behind had he been on the same side of the field.

    That said, equally amazing was Shaun side stepping the last guy who had a chance at him, almost coming to a complete stop, then accelerating back to full speed, leaving other guys that were running full speed with no stopping is super impressive. He looked like a sports car leaving the line in a drag race against a Humvee! A kick returner almost never takes it to the house when they have to check up like he did to avoid a tackle. His ability to stop and then accelerate back to full speed that quickly is pretty darn special.

  9. #129
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Watching the broadcast now for the first time. Liking Tirico and Flute.

  10. #130
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    DC and DE Beach
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Watching the broadcast now for the first time. Liking Tirico ---- .
    Tirico is a quality play-by-play broadcaster. Despite being a ND 'leaner' in these NBC telecasts, he took time for props to Duke on several levels, Coach Cut, Duke academics, football and even basketball.

  11. #131
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by westwall View Post
    Tirico is a quality play-by-play broadcaster. Despite being a ND 'leaner' in these NBC telecasts, he took time for props to Duke on several levels, Coach Cut, Duke academics, football and even basketball.
    Agreed. They both expect Dame to win, but are calling it honest.

  12. #132
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    one of the best things about rewatching the game multiple times is the excellent production level of the game...all sorts of
    replay angles, I guess NBC really throws all it has into those games, much more than we typically see...

  13. #133
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    one of the best things about rewatching the game multiple times is the excellent production level of the game...all sorts of
    replay angles, I guess NBC really throws all it has into those games, much more than we typically see...
    Better production in NBC for their main event than on The Ocho? How odd.

    Just wait until 2020 when Duke signs theor exclusive CBS deal to show all Duke football games at 8pm on Saturdays to a national audience!

  14. #134
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Some bulletin board material for Daniel Jones, courtesy of ESPN's "Bottom 10" (a feature which is a hell of a lot more entertaining now that we are no longer fixtures in said rankings).
    Every week, the Bottom 10 features a power conference team that has suffered an ignominious loss of some kind in the #5 spot. This week's #5? Notre Dame, who, according to the rankings, lost to "a 1-2 Duke team with no quarterback." Ouch.
    http://www.espn.com/college-football...sh-eyes-crying

  15. #135
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Some bulletin board material for Daniel Jones, courtesy of ESPN's "Bottom 10" (a feature which is a hell of a lot more entertaining now that we are no longer fixtures in said rankings).
    Every week, the Bottom 10 features a power conference team that has suffered an ignominious loss of some kind in the #5 spot. This week's #5? Notre Dame, who, according to the rankings, lost to "a 1-2 Duke team with no quarterback." Ouch.
    http://www.espn.com/college-football...sh-eyes-crying
    Can someone please get this to Coach Cut or D. Jones before the UVA game this week?!

  16. #136
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Watching the broadcast now for the first time. Liking Tirico and Flute.
    Agree with you about Mike Tirico and Doug Flutie. I think they are both very good announcers (in their respective roles) and Mike Tirico had many nice things to say about Duke (both about the resurgence of the football program and the university in general - he mentioned a few times what a great academic school it is!).

  17. #137
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Some bulletin board material for Daniel Jones, courtesy of ESPN's "Bottom 10" (a feature which is a hell of a lot more entertaining now that we are no longer fixtures in said rankings).
    Every week, the Bottom 10 features a power conference team that has suffered an ignominious loss of some kind in the #5 spot. This week's #5? Notre Dame, who, according to the rankings, lost to "a 1-2 Duke team with no quarterback." Ouch.
    http://www.espn.com/college-football...sh-eyes-crying
    There are steps in building and sustaining a top program.

    One step is going on the road and beating a recognized heavyweight.

    The step after that is going on the road and beating a recognized heavyweight without the recognized heavyweight responding as if the Titanic just hit an iceberg.

  18. #138
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Universal showing the game agin right now. Halftime, Devils looking good. Hope we play strong in the second half!!!

  19. #139
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Crap. We need better 4th and 1 plays.

  20. #140
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Universal showing the game agin right now. Halftime, Devils looking good!
    I was watching it on Universal too. Not the last replay of the game this week:

    Thursday 9/29, 8-10pm ET on Root Sports Southwest HD (U-Verse channel 1758)
    Friday 9/30, 2-5:30am ET on Universal HD (U-Verse channel 1105)
    Friday 9/30, 6:30-10am ET on Universal HD

    Looks like Root Sports is showing a shorter version.

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