Sirk Headed for "Breakout Season?"

[BD80]

Thomas is listed as one of "five underrated quarterbacks who are likely destined for breakout seasons and are worth respect when handicapping games."

http://www.sportsline.com/insiders/2...pping-respect/

[AustinDevil]

That's awesome! As one who has had reservations about Sirk, I am sincerely and completely rooting for his recovery and for him running the offense from Week One on. The experience and competitiveness outweigh the passing (in)accuracy even if he doesn't improve there (and I think he will).

[CDu]

While that is fantastic that he made the list, I can't help but note that there was no mention of his major achilles injury this offseason. Which leads me to wonder if they didn't know about it.

Sirk's recovery (and its impact on his ability to make strides in the offseason) is unfortunately a big question for me.

[ipatent]

he'll need to get better touch on long passes. A lot of missed chances on those last year.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Hope so. I'll be rooting for him obviously.

Hard to see where that breakout is gonna come from based on what I remember seeing last year. That was maybe the most frustrating offense I've ever watched, rarely throwing the ball more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. I don't remember them completing a whole lot when they did go beyond 5 yards. There is no potential for a breakout season if they offense can't break out of it's box this year.

[Olympic Fan]

Hope so. I'll be rooting for him obviously.

Hard to see where that breakout is gonna come from based on what I remember seeing last year. That was maybe the most frustrating offense I've ever watched, rarely throwing the ball more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. I don't remember them completing a whole lot when they did go beyond 5 yards. There is no potential for a breakout season if they offense can't break out of it's box this year.

What do you remember last year?

You should remember the single most effective season for a Duke quarterback in Cut's tenure ... the best season for a Duke QB since Spurrier's reign in the late 1980s.

Despite his inaccuracy with the deep pass ... Sirk still had the second-best total offense season in Duke history (only Anthony Dilweg in 1988 had more than his 3,428 yards in a single season). His 24 touchdowns were the fourth most in Duke history (really third behind Dilweg and Dave Brown in 1991 ... Brandon Connette actually had the most TDs -- 27 -- but that was more as a short yardage specialist than as a real QB).

His team-directed totals were even better -- he directed the highest scoring Duke offense since 1943.

He was 3rd in the ACC (and 25th nationally) in total offense last season -- behind Deshaun Watson and by 1.4 yards a game behind Marquise Williams. He was 26 yards a game ahead of fourth-place Brad Kaaya of Miami. As a team, Duke was also third in the ACC in total offense.

He quarterbacked the team to eight wins in his 12 games -- really nine wins (with the Miami game stolen).

And, yet, all Duke fans can talk about is his inability to throw the deep ball.

The fact is that Sirk had a breakout performance LAST year. He was one of the best QBs in college football.

With a slight improvement in his one weak area -- lack of accuracy with the deep ball -- maybe even Duke fans will realize what they have. But even if he's the same guy we saw last year, we've got one of the best quarterbacks in college football.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

What do you remember last year?

You should remember the single most effective season for a Duke quarterback in Cut's tenure ... the best season for a Duke QB since Spurrier's reign in the late 1980s.

Despite his inaccuracy with the deep pass ... Sirk still had the second-best total offense season in Duke history (only Anthony Dilweg in 1988 had more than his 3,428 yards in a single season). His 24 touchdowns were the fourth most in Duke history (really third behind Dilweg and Dave Brown in 1991 ... Brandon Connette actually had the most TDs -- 27 -- but that was more as a short yardage specialist than as a real QB).

His team-directed totals were even better -- he directed the highest scoring Duke offense since 1943.

He was 3rd in the ACC (and 25th nationally) in total offense last season -- behind Deshaun Watson and by 1.4 yards a game behind Marquise Williams. He was 26 yards a game ahead of fourth-place Brad Kaaya of Miami. As a team, Duke was also third in the ACC in total offense.

He quarterbacked the team to eight wins in his 12 games -- really nine wins (with the Miami game stolen).

And, yet, all Duke fans can talk about is his inability to throw the deep ball.

The fact is that Sirk had a breakout performance LAST year. He was one of the best QBs in college football.

With a slight improvement in his one weak area -- lack of accuracy with the deep ball -- maybe even Duke fans will realize what they have. But even if he's the same guy we saw last year, we've got one of the best quarterbacks in college football.

Or, counterpoint, his QB rating was 14th out of the 15 QBs who qualified in the conference last year. He's limited as a passer at all distances. His yards per attempt was also 14th out of 15. He did throw the 2nd most number of passes in the conference, and I wouldn't be surprised if he led the conference QBs in rushing attempts. He's an effective runner at the QB spot, but ultimately these are carries that he is essentially taking from other effective runners on the team. All these yardage totals you're throwing up there are true, but I would argue they're more a byproduct of his tremendous volume than his effectiveness.

I'm not saying he's useless. And if you want to call last year a breakout year, go ahead. But if we're discussing the potential for growth this year, then again I would argue it's unlikely, not unless they open things up some and he shows an ability to consistently hit passes beyond 5 yards.

[Olympic Fan]

Or, counterpoint, his QB rating was 14th out of the 15 QBs who qualified in the conference last year. He's limited as a passer at all distances. His yards per attempt was also 14th out of 15. He did throw the 2nd most number of passes in the conference, and I wouldn't be surprised if he led the conference QBs in rushing attempts. He's an effective runner at the QB spot, but ultimately these are carries that he is essentially taking from other effective runners on the team. All these yardage totals you're throwing up there are true, but I would argue they're more a byproduct of his tremendous volume than his effectiveness.

I'm not saying he's useless. And if you want to call last year a breakout year, go ahead. But if we're discussing the potential for growth this year, then again I would argue it's unlikely, not unless they open things up some and he shows an ability to consistently hit passes beyond 5 yards.

First, lets get our facts straight -- I'm sure you are quoting the ESPN stats which are both tagged and calculated incorrectly. QB Rating is an NFL term ... in college football, the equivalent stat is Passing Efficiency ... And Sirk ranked 11th, not 14th, in the ACC last year. Here's a link to the official ACC Media Guide -- you'll have to scroll down to page 37 to see the official ACC stats:

http://raycomsports.com/sports_labs_..._content=guide

But if I were you I wouldn't waste my time. Coach Cut has said that passing efficiency numbers are totally bogus -- it's an artificial stat that bears little relationship to the real world. Allow me to offer you an example -- a year ago, Georgia Tech's Justin Thomas hit 41.7 percent of his passes (Sirk hit 58.8 percent) for 1,345 yards (Sirk threw for 2,625 in the same number of games). Sirk threw for more touchdowns and had a better interception rate.

Yet, Thomas had a better passing efficiency rating.

Want another example? Virginia Tech's Brendon Motley hit 56.1 percent of his passes (less than Sirk) for 1155 yards (not half as many as Sirk). He had five less TD passes and a worst interception rate.

Yet, Motley ranked sixth in ACC passing efficiency -- five spots ahead of Sirk.

I concur with Coach Cut -- Passing Efficiency is a ridiculously artificial stat.

As for your comment about Sirk's rushing numbers "taking from other effective runners on the team" I suggest you find somebody to explain the read option to you -- you might understand why Sirk's running actually helps open things up for our other runners. And, taking out sacks on passing plays (which were actually quite low), Sirk rushed 150 times on running players fo 876 positive yards -- almost 5.9 yards a carry. That's better than Powell (our No. 2 rusher at 4.3 yards a carry) or Shaun Wilson (5.0 yards a carry). Jela Duncan did average more -- 6.9 yards a carry, but hje had physical issues that limited him to 67 attempts (about half as many as Powell).

Actually, I'm still not sure why so many Duke fans -- such as you -- are so unable to understand what an effective QB Sirk was last season. Only two ACC QBs had more total yards (and UNC';s Williams edged Sirk by 1.4 yards a game). Watson and Williams were the only ACC quarterbacks who started more winning games than Sirk's eight (which should have been nine).

I'm glad you don't think the most effective Duke quarterback in a quarter century was "useless".

But I'm baffled why you seem so convinced that he won't improve his passing numbers in his second season as a starter. Lewis improved in every area in his second season as a starter. Renfree's total passing yardage declined in his second season, but his completion percentage went from 61 to 65 percent and his TD/INT ratio went from 14/17 to 14/11. Anthony Boone's completion percentage dropped in his second season, but his yardage increased by over 500 yards and his TD/INT ratio went from 13/13 to 19/8.

Why is it so hard to conceive of Sirk improving his already solid passing numbers -- 58.8 percent completions/2.625 yards/16 TDs/8 INT -- in his second season.

I realize there are concerns about his offseason rehab, but that's actually given him more time to work on his throwing accuracy. If he makes the normal improvement of a Cut QB between his first and second season as a starter, Sirk could go from having the best QB season in a quarter century (as he did last year) to having the best QB season in Duke history (that would be Dilweg in 1988).

[Bob Green]

I'm not saying he's useless. And if you want to call last year a breakout year, go ahead. But if we're discussing the potential for growth this year, then again I would argue it's unlikely, not unless they open things up some and he shows an ability to consistently hit passes beyond 5 yards.

I believe you are overstating Sirk's limitations as a passer. Let's take a look at some of his touchdown passes:

Tulane: 29 yard TD to Johnell Barnes
NCCU: 43 yard TD to Max McCaffrey (the 89 yard pass to Shaun Wilson was a screen pass Wilson took to the house)
Georgia Tech: 11 yard TD to T.J. Rahming
Virginia Tech: 25 yard TD to Erich Schneider (an absolutely perfect pass)
Wake Forest: 18 yard and 28 yard TD passes to Max McCaffrey

Sirk can definitely "hit passes beyond 5 yards." He isn't perfect and his deep ball needs a lot of improvement but I am very happy he could be ready to go for his senior season. Sirk brings a strong intangible onto the field - he is a winner!

[BD80]

I believe you are overstating Sirk's limitations as a passer. Let's take a look at some of his touchdown passes:

Tulane: 29 yard TD to Johnell Barnes
NCCU: 43 yard TD to Max McCaffrey (the 89 yard pass to Shaun Wilson was a screen pass Wilson took to the house)
Georgia Tech: 11 yard TD to T.J. Rahming
Virginia Tech: 25 yard TD to Erich Schneider (an absolutely perfect pass)
Wake Forest: 18 yard and 28 yard TD passes to Max McCaffrey

Sirk can definitely "hit passes beyond 5 yards." He isn't perfect and his deep ball needs a lot of improvement but I am very happy he could be ready to go for his senior season. Sirk brings a strong intangible onto the field - he is a winner!

Since he was off of his feet much of the last year, maybe he worked on his arm?

[CDu]

I feel the need to make a few corrections here:

First, passer ratings exists in both the NFL and college. ESPN has created QBR, but that is separate stat (that is the subjective one). QBR exists at both the college and pro level. Passer efficiency ratings capture only passing stats and are driven by completion %, yards per attempt, TD%, int %. You reference counting stats throughout your comparisons, but those are essentially irrelevant in passer efficiency rating. Efficiency is essentially a "per attempt" metric. It is a very straightforward formula where TD% happens to be weighted more heavily than INT%, which is why those guys you compared to Sirk have better numbers (they had subtantively better TD% along with substantively better yards per attempt). QBR is a more subjective stat, and tries to account for decisionmaking and situational performance and not just overall performance.

Sirk was 11th of 15 qualifiers in QBR. He ranked 14th out of 15 in passer efficiency rating. His low passer rating was a function of an extremely low yards per attempt (his completion % was buoyed by a TON of WR screens, which in turn drag down his yards per attempt) and a low TD% (second lowest in the conference). Sirk's QBR ranking was better thanks to his running prowess, but still it was easily in the bottom half og the conference.

But the question for me remains: how effective will he be coming back from a second achilles injury. We are talking about a QB who struggled mightily with accuracy on throws beyond the line of scrimmage, and relied heavily on his running prowess to be effective. Now he has had to spend a huge chunk of his offseason (the time he would have used to work on his passing accuracy) rehabbing a major injury. Will he be as effective running the ball? Will he show any improvements on passes beyond the line of scrimmage? I certainly hope so, but it is a big question mark for me.

[Bob Green]

We are talking about a QB who struggled mightily with accuracy on throws beyond the line of scrimmage...

I disagree. Sirk struggled with deep pass accuracy, but he completed a lot of medium length passes. Earlier in the thread, I posted some examples of his touchdown passes greater than 10 yards. I used touchdowns because it is easy to grab the info out of the box scores where as non-touchdown passes require digging through the play-by-play stats.

However, seeing as I so strongly disagree with the "Sirk is inaccurate" meme here are a few random non-touchdown examples:

NCCU: 3rd and 12, at Duke 37, Pass complete to Barnes for 44 yards to NCCU 19.
NCCU: 3rd and 7, at Duke 40, Pass complete to Rahming for 59 yards to NCCU 1.

Indiana: 3rd and 9, at Duke 32, Pass complete to Rahming for 18 yards to 50 yd line.
Indiana: 2nd and 10, at Indiana 40, Pass complete to Schneider for 17 yards to Indiana 23.

VT: 3rd and 10, at VT 19, Slant pass complete to Barnes for 14 yards to VT 5.
VT: 1st and 10, at Duke 37, Deep pass complete to Nash for 45 yards to VT 18.

Miami: 1st and 10 at Miami 15, Pass complete to McCaffrey for 12 yards to Miami 3.
Miami: 2nd and 7 at Duke 36, Pass complete to Deaver for 15 yards to Miami 49.

I could keep going. The box scores/play-by-play are full of medium length passes Sirk completed.

[CDu]

I disagree. Sirk struggled with deep pass accuracy, but he completed a lot of medium length passes. Earlier in the thread, I posted some examples of his touchdown passes greater than 10 yards. I used touchdowns because it is easy to grab the info out of the box scores where as non-touchdown passes require digging through the play-by-play stats.

However, seeing as I so strongly disagree with the "Sirk is inaccurate" meme here are a few random non-touchdown examples:

NCCU: 3rd and 12, at Duke 37, Pass complete to Barnes for 44 yards to NCCU 19.
NCCU: 3rd and 7, at Duke 40, Pass complete to Rahming for 59 yards to NCCU 1.

Indiana: 3rd and 9, at Duke 32, Pass complete to Rahming for 18 yards to 50 yd line.
Indiana: 2nd and 10, at Indiana 40, Pass complete to Schneider for 17 yards to Indiana 23.

VT: 3rd and 10, at VT 19, Slant pass complete to Barnes for 14 yards to VT 5.
VT: 1st and 10, at Duke 37, Deep pass complete to Nash for 45 yards to VT 18.

Miami: 1st and 10 at Miami 15, Pass complete to McCaffrey for 12 yards to Miami 3.
Miami: 2nd and 7 at Duke 36, Pass complete to Deaver for 15 yards to Miami 49.

I could keep going. The box scores/play-by-play are full of medium length passes Sirk completed.

The stats simply don't back up this claim. Sirk was 10th in completion % (and in the neighborhood of several others). But his yards per attempt was second lowest by a fairly wide margin (~15% lower than the next worst). So if he was doing well in completing longer passes with accuracy, his yards per attempt would be better (as his completion % isn't bad). But instead we see a very low yards per attempt, meaning a low yards per completion. And sure enough, Sirk has the second lowest yards per completion in the conference.

The stats you have shown aren't terribly complete. First, how far downfield were those passes actually thrown? Short passes (even those behind the line) can go for big gains. Second, how many throws did he miss? Third, nobody is saying Sirk never completed a long pass. Just that - relative to the rest of the ACC - Sirk struggled to complete passes beyond the line of scrimmage. If we had completion % on passes thrown >5 yards downfield, I would guess Sirk would rank at or near the bottom.

[Bob Green]

The stats you have shown aren't terribly complete.

I clearly stated they were random examples.

First, how far downfield were those passes actually thrown? Short passes (even those behind the line) can go for big gains.

I watched every game last season. Seven at the stadium (six home games plus in Charlottesville) and six on TV. I know what I saw and I saw Sirk complete passes downfield. In the examples I offered, I specifically avoided screen passes where all the yardage was gained after the catch such as Shaun Wilson's 89 yard TD reception against NCCU.

Second, how many throws did he miss?

Not all misses are on the quarterback. Receivers drop balls. Receivers run lousy routes.

Third, nobody is saying Sirk never completed a long pass. Just that - relative to the rest of the ACC - Sirk struggled to complete passes beyond the line of scrimmage. If we had completion % on passes thrown >5 yards downfield, I would guess Sirk would rank at or near the bottom.

Sirk did not struggle to complete passes beyond the line of scrimmage, he struggled with deep ball accuracy. A contributing factor in his low yards per attempt/low yards per completion statistics is offensive play calling strategy. Duke throws a lot of short passes.

[CDu]

I clearly stated they were random examples.



I watched every game last season. Seven at the stadium (six home games plus in Charlottesville) and six on TV. I know what I saw and I saw Sirk complete passes downfield. In the examples I offered, I specifically avoided screen passes where all the yardage was gained after the catch such as Shaun Wilson's 89 yard TD reception against NCCU.



Not all misses are on the quarterback. Receivers drop balls. Receivers run lousy routes.



Sirk did not struggle to complete passes beyond the line of scrimmage, he struggled with deep ball accuracy. A contributing factor in his low yards per attempt/low yards per completion statistics is offensive play calling strategy. Duke throws a lot of short passes.

I also watched all the games, and I stand by what I have said. Sirk threw more short/behind-the-line passes than most because he struggles with accuracy. I stand by the statement that - relative to the rest of the ACC - Sirk was not as good at completing passes on throws more than 5 yards downfield.

There is a difference between saying he struggled with those throws (which I said) and saying he never completes those throws. Sirk certainly completed passes of all sorts of distances last year. That does not mean he was effective at completing passes at all sorts of distances. He was effective on short throws. He was below average to bad on throws of any distance downfield.

Doesn't mean he isn't a useful QB. His running ability and toughness is a definite plus. But as a passer he has been well below the average ACC starting QB.

[AustinDevil]

The stats simply don't back up this claim. Sirk was 10th in completion % (and in the neighborhood of several others). But his yards per attempt was second lowest by a fairly wide margin (~15% lower than the next worst). So if he was doing well in completing longer passes with accuracy, his yards per attempt would be better (as his completion % isn't bad). But instead we see a very low yards per attempt, meaning a low yards per completion. And sure enough, Sirk has the second lowest yards per completion in the conference.

The stats you have shown aren't terribly complete. First, how far downfield were those passes actually thrown? Short passes (even those behind the line) can go for big gains. Second, how many throws did he miss? Third, nobody is saying Sirk never completed a long pass. Just that - relative to the rest of the ACC - Sirk struggled to complete passes beyond the line of scrimmage. If we had completion % on passes thrown >5 yards downfield, I would guess Sirk would rank at or near the bottom.

My views last season aligned very closely with this post, CDu. However, it is late July 2016, Sirk is recovering with amazing rapidity, he will be our quarterback this fall, I love his running ability and his toughness, and I personally am done criticizing anything about his 2015 performances. Let's go, Duke, and Thomas Sirk as our QB!

[CDu]

My views last season aligned very closely with this post, CDu. However, it is late July 2016, Sirk is recovering with amazing rapidity, he will be our quarterback this fall, I love his running ability and his toughness, and I personally am done criticizing anything about his 2015 performances. Let's go, Duke, and Thomas Sirk as our QB!

Yeah, just to be clear, I am very much cheering for Sirk to do well this coming year. Just trying to give an honest assessment of where he was last year snd what he has had to overcome since then. He is tough and has been a heck of a runner. I am hopeful that his injury doesn't hurt his running ability and that the rehab doesn't/hasn't kept him from making strides on what I see as weaknesses (his passing accuracy). I am certainly hopeful for him, but I think there is reason for caution in expectations for him.

[Bob Green]

Thomas Sirk accurately throws the ball downfield to Max McCaffrey for a touchdown:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRLywB0CLjc

Thomas Sirk accurately throws an 11 yard touchdown pass to T.J. Rahming on a slant route:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=517uQgHujZE

Thomas Sirk accurately throws a 16 yard touchdown pass to Max McCaffrey on a slant route and a 25 yard touchdown pass to Erich Schneider on a sideline route:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKk4pk2joaY

Thomas Sirk accurately throws the ball downfield to Jela Duncan on the wheel route:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz7blRyUX3o

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Yeah, my points are being argued more clearly and effectively by CDu in this post, so I'll just say "ditto".

I wish we had numbers regarding attempts and completions on balls thrown to different areas of the field, and the ability to compare them to other QBs in the conference, but I don't have that. We can argue volume stats vs efficiency stats all day.

There is no question that Sirk is capable of hitting medium and deep passes and has done so on multiple occasions. The question is whether he can do it on a reasonably consistent basis, and whether the coaches will allow him to try to do so. I guess some people want to argue that he's already doing that, but I don't think the numbers would back that up. I just don't have the numbers.

And, just to echo another of CDu's sentiments, I am very much rooting for Sirk. I do not argue that we should replace him. He is very likely the best we have, and in some instances he is very effective.

[CDu]

Thomas Sirk accurately throws the ball downfield to Max McCaffrey for a touchdown:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRLywB0CLjc

Thomas Sirk accurately throws an 11 yard touchdown pass to T.J. Rahming on a slant route:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=517uQgHujZE

Thomas Sirk accurately throws a 16 yard touchdown pass to Max McCaffrey on a slant route and a 25 yard touchdown pass to Erich Schneider on a sideline route:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKk4pk2joaY

Thomas Sirk accurately throws the ball downfield to Jela Duncan on the wheel route:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz7blRyUX3o

And this post does nothing to disprove what I said.