Duke announces non-conference schedule

[OldPhiKap]

Dauster feeling the heat

Rob Dauster ‏@RobDauster 13m13 minutes ago
People seem to be reading this as a shot at Duke. It's not. Duke's 'meh' schedule is a sympton, not the problem.

Based on this feedback, Dauster beefed up the explanation as to why this is a college basketball wide problem and he makes a lot of sense in doing so. It doesn't mean there is a good solution. Football is different because there are so few games and each outcome is huge. As a college basketball writer, he bemoans the fact that after the initial spate of great games to start the season, there is little to command the attention of the casual fan between Thanksgiving and the start of league play. But, I'd argue that football is so popular that DIII games, if nationally televised, might outdraw meh college basketball games.

There is an easy solution, Mr. Dauster. Go back to the days when the season did not start until after Thanksgiving, and even then you only had a few tournaments in Hawaii, Alaska, etc.

But TV doesn't want that, and mega-conferences mean that a larger part of the schedule goes to conference games (we played 18 conference games last year during the regular season, as opposed to the 14 when I was at Duke and the 16 when FSU joined. Although 4 extra games may not sound like a lot, that's two weeks-worth of games.) And what caused the rise of the mega-conferences, Mr. Dauster? Oh yeah -- television contracts.

Television is part of the beast that caused this longer schedule and the conference consolidation; they can't complain that their stretched calendar produces some watered-down games. "I want more cake, and I want it to be tastier too"

And if you didn't mean to focus on Duke, well -- don't write a whole column about us.

[1999ballboy]

Wow, this guy's proving to be a bigger jerk than I even thought he would be. Twitter meltdown in progress.

[Pghdukie]

Like I said earlier - what a jerk. Again, trying to make a name for himself. Maybe he's trying out for that all important job interview at Natl Inquirer!

[DukieTiger]

There is an easy solution, Mr. Dauster. Go back to the days when the season did not start until after Thanksgiving, and even then you only had a few tournaments in Hawaii, Alaska, etc.

But TV doesn't want that, and mega-conferences mean that a larger part of the schedule goes to conference games (we played 18 conference games last year during the regular season, as opposed to the 14 when I was at Duke and the 16 when FSU joined. Although 4 extra games may not sound like a lot, that's two weeks-worth of games.) And what caused the rise of the mega-conferences, Mr. Dauster? Oh yeah -- television contracts.

Television is part of the beast that caused this longer schedule and the conference consolidation; they can't complain that their stretched calendar produces some watered-down games. "I want more cake, and I want it to be tastier too"

And if you didn't mean to focus on Duke, well -- don't write a whole column about us.

The other thing that I think gets overlooked, and this goes for CFB and CBB, is that these "watered-down" games are a real boon to the smaller schools. I know for a fact that Clemson, my alma mater, will go out of its way to play a smaller in-state school each year in football. Yes, part of that is that they can't schedule a tough game each week, that would be a competitive disadvantage at the national (CFP) level. But an equally big part of it is that it's a way to support other state schools financially. Playing a major conference team in football is a significant windfall for a small athletics department.

In basketball, I'm not sure of the monetary incentive. However, many of these early season "cupcake" games are against teams that have legitimate conference championship hopes, which means they have a real hope of making the NCAAT and upsetting a team like Duke. How often do we hear the coach of a team who just lost by 30 in Cameron talk about what a great experience it was for his guys? The smaller teams benefit competitively, and it gives Duke a chance to develop some of its back-of-the-rotation guys.

So we could bemoan the fact that there aren't that many interesting games in December. But we could also remember that this is Finals time and Christmas break, and as you said- the reason they're playing this many games to begin with is because of TV programming.

Regarding the schedule itself, it doesn't seem as bottom-heavy as recent years where Duke played multiple teams ranked sub-250 in KenPom. I guess the one thing that might be missing is a mid-major of the quality of a Yale, but as others have mentioned, Rhode Island could be it.

I'm pretty excited overall, while also feeling that it would be a disappointment to get through that schedule with more than one loss.

[OldPhiKap]

The other thing that I think gets overlooked, and this goes for CFB and CBB, is that these "watered-down" games are a real boon to the smaller schools. I know for a fact that Clemson, my alma mater, will go out of its way to play a smaller in-state school each year in football. Yes, part of that is that they can't schedule a tough game each week, that would be a competitive disadvantage at the national (CFP) level. But an equally big part of it is that it's a way to support other state schools financially. Playing a major conference team in football is a significant windfall for a small athletics department.

In basketball, I'm not sure of the monetary incentive. However, many of these early season "cupcake" games are against teams that have legitimate conference championship hopes, which means they have a real hope of making the NCAAT and upsetting a team like Duke. How often do we hear the coach of a team who just lost by 30 in Cameron talk about what a great experience it was for his guys? The smaller teams benefit competitively, and it gives Duke a chance to develop some of its back-of-the-rotation guys.

So we could bemoan the fact that there aren't that many interesting games in December. But we could also remember that this is Finals time and Christmas break, and as you said- the reason they're playing this many games to begin with is because of TV programming.

Regarding the schedule itself, it doesn't seem as bottom-heavy as recent years where Duke played multiple teams ranked sub-250 in KenPom. I guess the one thing that might be missing is a mid-major of the quality of a Yale, but as others have mentioned, Rhode Island could be it.

I'm pretty excited overall, while also feeling that it would be a disappointment to get through that schedule with more than one loss.

I agree with all of this. Our "non-marquee" games (more accurate term than the one I used in my rant) tend to be the kind of teams you play in the first and second rounds of the NCAA. And with our recent string of younger teams, playing a smart, veteran team of that ilk is great for teaching our kids what to expect. We generally play the winner of the D-II (or whatever its called) as well as teams, as you say, who will likely be competitive for their mid-major ticket to the big dance.

Slight aside -- Littlejohn is my favorite conference venue away from Cameron, and that was before the renovations. I really recommend a Duke game at Clemson for anyone who can make it. Incredible atmosphere, friendly fans as long as you aren't wearing Gamecock gear. (Football too -- beautiful view of Lake Hartwell from the North stands -- but that's not always as competitive as the basketball games. Cut's working on it though).

Oh, and for Pete's sake -- beat the damn Tar Heels in Chapel Hill next opportunity!

[SCMatt33]

So a couple of thoughts on that Dauster article. He never actually called the schedule bad or anything. He laments the large number of very meh games and correctly points out that a) some of the neutral site games don't appear as good as they have in the past, and b) there's a lot of low and mid major games. But he never really blasts the team for doing it. Maybe the update softens what he said earlier since I only read it after that, but I think most of it gets framed in terms of the headline, the one thing that explicitly calls it "bad". I'd love to know if Dauster actually wrote or even approved that headline. I mean, in the meat of it, his sentiments weren't that different than what I've seen here before this. People were disappointed with the tourney field in Connecticut, lamented that recent events changed the outlook of UNLV, and no one was super excited about Florida outside the White family connection.

As for my thoughts, I think one big factor not mentioned is conference expansion. When you schedule 6 or 7 meh games out of 13 it looks like a much bigger deal than 6 or 7 out of 15. But non conference schedules get evaluated in a vacuum which I think is idiotic. No coach builds his schedule that way. They look at the whole thing, what they want out of it, then build around the parts they can't control (Conference, Challenges, and to a lesser extent preseason tourneys).

[sammy3469]

FWIW, it looks like Gov Cuomo nixed Albany going to Cameron for that Nov 12th date because of HB2 and also forced Marist to back out today. So I guess they're still looking for a replacement for that date. I wonder if they had problems with any other teams coming in for this reason.


http://www.syracuse.com/orangebasket...s_hb2_law.html

[Olympic Fan]

Just to break the schedule down:

-- Duke will play five games against teams in the ESPN preseason top 10 (two at home, two on the road and one neutral): No. 4 Kansas, No. 5 Virginia, No. 6 UNC (twice), No. 10 Michigan State

-- Duke will play either nine or 10 games against teams in the ESPN preseason top 25 (depending on whether we get No. 21 Rhode Island or unranked Cincinnati in the finals of the Hall of Fame tipoff classic). In addition, Duke plays one game against one of ESPN's honorable mention: No. 13 Louisville, No. 23 FSU (twice), No. 25 Syracuse and HM Virginia Tech.

-- Duke will play seven non-conference patsies: Grand Canyon, William & Mary (although they did beat State at State last year), App State, Maine, Tennessee State, Elon and our second round game in the Tipoff Classic (Marist?). I would say that two of our non-conference games are gimmies too -- home games with Boston College and Georgia Tech.

-- That's more than half the schedule, either 18 or 19 games against either ranked opponents (8 or 9 games) or patsies (7 games). The rest are against teams with varying abilities. I would break them up:

-- Either seven or eight games against strong unranked opponents: NC State (I know they are going to be top 25 in at least one major preseason publication). Virginia Tech (an ESPN honorable mention top 25), Miami (twice), Notre Dame, Pitt, Clemson (with Blossomgame back) and maybe Cincinnati (if we don't get Rhode Island in the Tipoff Classic).

I agree that UNLV appears to be in shambles after a ton of offseason defections, but I think Florida is expecting to be better in Mike White's second season. I recently read a story suggesting that Penn State has strong hopes for an NCAA Tournament bid this season.

-- There are also two games with Wake Forest I would suggest that the game in Durham shapes up as a gimmie, but the game in Winston is usually very competitive.

Overall, we balance our ranked opponents (9 or 10 games) with our gimmies (9 or 10 games, depending on wake at Durham). In the middle are 11 or 12 games against solid opponents.

It looks like a pretty solid, balanced schedule to me. If You want to complain about the home slate -- well, Duke gets No. 6 UNC, No. 10 Michigan State and No. 23 FSU at home, along with near top 25 NC State and near top 25 Miami, plus very solid opponents in Pitt and Clemson. I agree that the non-conference slate -- beyond Michigan State -- is pretty lame.

PS I used the ESPN preseason ratings, but personally, I think Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami and Pitt will all be better than Syracuse ... and I'm on record as thinking Louisville will be better than UNC or Virginia.

[hallcity]

Of the 9 or 10 games against teams with preseason rankings, I believe that 7 or 8 are on the road or at a neutral site.

[Blue in the Face]

FWIW, it looks like Gov Cuomo nixed Albany going to Cameron for that Nov 12th date because of HB2 and also forced Marist to back out today. So I guess they're still looking for a replacement for that date. I wonder if they had problems with any other teams coming in for this reason.


http://www.syracuse.com/orangebasket...s_hb2_law.html

Marist is a private school - if they decline an invitation to play at Duke, that's their choice, but it's not forced upon them by the Governor's executive order.

[Olympic Fan]

Of the 9 or 10 games against teams with preseason rankings, I believe that 7 or 8 are on the road or at a neutral site.

Duke will play Michigan State, UNC and FSU at home.

UNC, Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse and FSU on the road

Kansas and (maybe) Rhode Island on neutral courts.

So vs. preseason ranked teams -- 3 at home, 1 or 2 neutral and 5 on the road

[OldPhiKap]

Duke will play Michigan State, UNC and FSU at home.

UNC, Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse and FSU on the road

Kansas and (maybe) Rhode Island on neutral courts.

So vs. preseason ranked teams -- 3 at home, 1 or 2 neutral and 5 on the road

STOP CITING FACTS!!!!! Duke has a soft schedule and, generally, sucks. Don't buck the narrative with actual real stuff.

(Virtual Sporkz, must spread love and all)

[English]

STOP CITING FACTS!!!!! Duke has a soft schedule and, generally, sucks. Don't buck the narrative with actual real stuff.

(Virtual Sporkz, must spread love and all)

OPK, you're missing the whole point--Duke has a soft schedule, AND IS BAD FOR THE SPORT OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL. C'mon, pay attention!

[OldPhiKap]

OPK, you're missing the whole point--Duke has a soft schedule, AND IS BAD FOR THE SPORT OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL. C'mon, pay attention!

Nae, bad for humanity. Good catch.

[dyedwab]

Look, I get this issue.

Fundamentally, we play almost no inter-conference games in opponents' home arenas...and we tend to host teams that are a level below us at Cameron. I understand why this is - and if I were Duke and Coach K, I'd probably do the same thing. But as a college basketball fan, I miss big matchups in home arenas. I liked playing Kansas and Danny Manning in Allen Fieldhouse, and UoA in Tucson, and UCLA at Pauley, etc. and I enjoyed hosting LSU and Shaq in mid Feb, and Kansas, and other major conference rivals.

Things are mitigated for me a lot due to conference expansion - Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse were great teams to schedule outside of the conference when they weren't ACC members. And the conference expansion has made scheduling more compressed.

Anyway, I still wish we had a home and home against, say, Gonzaga, or, Kansas, or UMichigan or someone like those teams- because as a fan, I think they are fun matchups in great settings.

[buddy]

The problem with the "meh" home schedule is not so much the non-conference part, but the conference part. The unbalanced schedule gave us several terrific home games last year, not so much this year. I don't blame coach for the non-conference schedule. Ratings matter, wins matter, and when your conference schedule leaves you with tough games on the road and less tough at home, you have to make do. I would love to see more multi-year home-and-away with premier programs, but the realities of tournament seeding don't permit it.

[OldPhiKap]

The problem with the "meh" home schedule is not so much the non-conference part, but the conference part. The unbalanced schedule gave us several terrific home games last year, not so much this year. I don't blame coach for the non-conference schedule. Ratings matter, wins matter, and when your conference schedule leaves you with tough games on the road and less tough at home, you have to make do. I would love to see more multi-year home-and-away with premier programs, but the realities of tournament seeding don't permit it.

I think there's something to this, agreed.

And part of the related problem, at least for me, is the lack of history with some of these teams. Duke v. Pitt may be a good game for example, but it doesn't light a fire under me. I just don't care. [oldmanrant]It's not like back in the day, where you had home and away games with the same seven opponents every year and you saw their players in game after game, year after year.[/oldmanrant]

[ChillinDuke]

Look, I get this issue.

Fundamentally, we play almost no inter-conference games in opponents' home arenas...and we tend to host teams that are a level below us at Cameron. I understand why this is - and if I were Duke and Coach K, I'd probably do the same thing. But as a college basketball fan, I miss big matchups in home arenas. I liked playing Kansas and Danny Manning in Allen Fieldhouse, and UoA in Tucson, and UCLA at Pauley, etc. and I enjoyed hosting LSU and Shaq in mid Feb, and Kansas, and other major conference rivals.

Things are mitigated for me a lot due to conference expansion - Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse were great teams to schedule outside of the conference when they weren't ACC members. And the conference expansion has made scheduling more compressed.

Anyway, I still wish we had a home and home against, say, Gonzaga, or, Kansas, or UMichigan or someone like those teams- because as a fan, I think they are fun matchups in great settings.

A lot of us get the issue. But the issue with your issue is that those teams don't exist anymore. Today's Shaquille O'Neal doesn't stay at LSU for 3 years, and 2-time Conference POY Danny Manning doesn't stay at Kansas for his senior season and the Duke game in Allen. No chance.

The times have fundamentally changed. Teams don't have the sort of continuity ("Is that guy still in school?!") that OPK old man rant's about above. So you're left with scheduling games, well in advance of the year it will be played, with no insight into a team's makeup. And you're left with games like Florida and UNLV in comparative sorry states to where they were when they were lined up. Granted, Florida is at a neutral site. But UNLV is in Vegas - you can't tell me that's not essentially a true road game (although ESPN, and some nitpickers, will point out it's not on UNLV's campus and thus technically neutral).

So back to those hystorical games you noted, if those games are scheduled without those hypothetically lost players (Shaq / Manning), and LSU or Kansas gets throttled by Duke because they lost key pieces to the team (note: they both lost anyway with those players), then those respective teams face a different sort of backlash - humiliation and/or fan irritation. You're damned if you schedule them and damned if you don't.

Then there's the issue of revenue. I don't know exactly how it works, but I imagine the marquee matchups get major money for playing at major arenas (and not on campus). Shirking those kind of dollars causes issues athletic-department wide. There was no Title IX back when Manning was at Kansas (I presume; and even if it did, I assume the amount of sports offered back then wasn't quite as robust - but I could be wrong).

And the list of issues goes on and on.

To simplify the matter(s), I liken the whole thing to high stakes poker. The two best poker players in the world don't want to play each other. Why should they - it's high risk, low reward? The only possible outcome is one of the best loses and the other remains the best (which he/she already was). Instead, the path of least resistance is to play other non-best players - this way they can both win. Now once in a while, in a tournament setting or in a major headliner, you'll get to see the best play the best - and then they square off. But in the meantime / "normal" time, why should they? Look at boxing too for similarities.

Frankly, I agree with you more than I don't. I guess I just look at the whole thing as this is the current state of things. If someone out there is able to create some construct that is able to pit Duke (or any major power) vs another behemoth on campus, with regularity, I'd unquestioningly support such a thing. And based on what others here (and the media) continually moan about, I'd imagine countless others would too.

So why hasn't it happened?

- Chillin

[Neals384]

In the past, Duke has sometimes scheduled a game in or near a senior player's home. Example: playing Oregon in Portland during Singler's senior year. This year, no senior game in Dallas for Matt. Could perhaps have scheduled SMU.

[MartyClark]

Somebody with authority, please ask Duke to schedule a 2 for 1 series with my Colorado Buffaloes. I'm sure the Buffs would travel to Durham twice in exchange for one game in Boulder or Denver.