2016-17 Season, Vegas Odds

[Troublemaker]

According to the Way Too Early thread, Duke was listed as 5-1 in early May, with Ky at 8-1. So, did the Bolden announcement move the needle that much? And how come Ky is now 7-1 when they didn't get Bolden?

Doubtful. The 5-1 and 3-1 might've been at two different books, as 3-1 is hardly the consensus. For example, you can bet Duke at 13-2 (or 6.5-to-1) at some places right now. (That obviously would be the first clue that 3-1 aren't good/fair odds.)

[DukieInBrasil]

While i have no insights on how to set betting lines or other such prognostications, i see some reasons for optimism for this squad to win Natty 6.
1) Experience. It is possible that Duke might field a starting lineup without a Fr. for the first time in a while. We will almost assuredly be starting a 5th yr Sr., at C/PF another Sr at SF/SG, a Jr SG, a So. G and possibly another So. at PF/C (Jeter). I was not impressed with Jeter's play in his Fr. year, but one never knows how he will progress from his 1st year, nor do we know how ready our Fr will be. It is more likely than not that Jeter won't start much if at all.
2) Skill. Each of the above cited players has at least one very valuable skill. Amile is a very skilled rebounder and has a lot of skill scoring around the basket, but he's not a freakish physical talent nor has he shown much shooting skill thus far. Matt Jones has a skill for 3pt shooting and defense, but he's not very skilled at driving to the rim or scoring inside nor is he a freakish physical talent. Grayson is an almost freakishly talented athlete, with excellent skill at 3pt and scoring in the paint. He showed a surprising amount of skill as a PG last year, but not one of his biggest strengths. Luke has a reputation as a skilled 3pt shooting talent, and we saw that occassionally last year, as well as a skill for scoring from pretty much anywhere on the floor. He may have to develop more skill for the PG position this year, but we saw some of that last year too. 4 of the incoming Fr. have reputations for being skilled as well, so we'll see how that goes.
3) Skilled experience. Points 1) + 2). Just to point out that our experienced players are not stiffs.
4) NCAA Tournament experience. 3 guys played on, and played big roles in Duke's most recent Natty. 5 guys played pretty important roles in last year's Sweet 16 team, while 2 additional guys were also on that team. Tournament experience is a big plus.
5) Depth. I'm not about to argue minutes played or rotation depth. But even if Duke only goes 7 or 8 rotation, there will undoubtedly be times when someone is unavailable for a game(s), or gets hurt during a game, or big time foul trouble, and having bodies, including bodies with some real skill/talent, will be handy.
6) Talent. None of Duke's players lack talent. Some are more talented than others. Grayson has immense talent. Our other returning (2016/17)starters all have a lot of talent in at least one area. Tatum, Giles, Jackson and Bolden have reputations for being very talented as well. So that bodes well.
7) Coaching talent. We've got the best in the business pulling the strings and he's got lots of very competent assistance/ts.

I'm pretty excited for this year's iteration of Duke basketball, i feel like they're going to be a fun team to watch!

[Kedsy]

It is possible that Duke might field a starting lineup without a Fr. for the first time in a while.

I'm pretty excited too, but (absent injury) it is not reasonably possible that Duke has fewer than two freshmen in the starting lineup in 2016-17.

[ChillinDuke]

Yeah, like I said, it all depends on what one means by "upper middle of the pack." In a 15 team conference, I'd put that at 6th or 7th (the top two spots of the middle third), with 4th or 5th being the bottom of the top tier. But again, mileage may vary from person to person.

Regarding UNC's chances next year, I agree with those who think they'll be "good." Their 1-5 range from solid to good (a couple with the potential to be great), and Nate Britt is good enough as a backup.

The question to me is - everybody's favorite - Roy Williams. If K is so clearly a 7.5-man rotation guy in major games, then isn't Roy so clearly a 9-man rotation guy? YMMV on the #-man that both K and Roy are, respectively. But my point is that if UNC has a solid front 5 (they do) and a good first backup (they do), and if Roy Williams is a [9]-man rotation kind of coach (he is), then who the heck is going to be UNC's player #7, #8, and #9? Is Luke Maye one of them?

They'll be good enough in their starting lineup to play top-of-the-acc ball. Maybe even Top-10 nationally ball. But the starting lineup doesn't play the whole game - and it especially doesn't play the whole game at UNC. And I can't envision a reasonable scenario where player #6 - #9 (headlined by Nate Britt) can play top-of-the-ACC / Top-10 nationally ball. At all. And that is why I agree with Kedsy that UNC is an ACC #4/#5 or Top-25 kind of team next year.

And, of course, it's possible I'm wrong. I won't apologize for that possibility. I'll be the first one to admit that I dramatically underestimated UNC last year.

But in mid-July - there aren't many things as enjoyable as envisioning how Roy Williams is going to muck up UNC's upcoming season.

- Chillin

[Skitzle]

Regarding UNC's chances next year, I agree with those who think they'll be "good." Their 1-5 range from solid to good (a couple with the potential to be great), and Nate Britt is good enough as a backup.

The question to me is - everybody's favorite - Roy Williams. If K is so clearly a 7.5-man rotation guy in major games, then isn't Roy so clearly a 9-man rotation guy? YMMV on the #-man that both K and Roy are, respectively. But my point is that if UNC has a solid front 5 (they do) and a good first backup (they do), and if Roy Williams is a [9]-man rotation kind of coach (he is), then who the heck is going to be UNC's player #7, #8, and #9? Is Luke Maye one of them?

They'll be good enough in their starting lineup to play top-of-the-acc ball. Maybe even Top-10 nationally ball. But the starting lineup doesn't play the whole game - and it especially doesn't play the whole game at UNC. And I can't envision a reasonable scenario where player #6 - #9 (headlined by Nate Britt) can play top-of-the-ACC / Top-10 nationally ball. At all. And that is why I agree with Kedsy that UNC is an ACC #4/#5 or Top-25 kind of team next year.

And, of course, it's possible I'm wrong. I won't apologize for that possibility. I'll be the first one to admit that I dramatically underestimated UNC last year.

But in mid-July - there aren't many things as enjoyable as envisioning how Roy Williams is going to muck up UNC's upcoming season.

- Chillin

"Just a Good Backup? Ludicrous! Nate Britt is the Second Coming (Third Coming) of Isaiah Thomas. UNC will be a Top 1 Team" - IC

[Troublemaker]

Regarding UNC's chances next year, I agree with those who think they'll be "good." Their 1-5 range from solid to good (a couple with the potential to be great), and Nate Britt is good enough as a backup.

The question to me is - everybody's favorite - Roy Williams. If K is so clearly a 7.5-man rotation guy in major games, then isn't Roy so clearly a 9-man rotation guy? YMMV on the #-man that both K and Roy are, respectively. But my point is that if UNC has a solid front 5 (they do) and a good first backup (they do), and if Roy Williams is a [9]-man rotation kind of coach (he is), then who the heck is going to be UNC's player #7, #8, and #9? Is Luke Maye one of them?

They'll be good enough in their starting lineup to play top-of-the-acc ball. Maybe even Top-10 nationally ball. But the starting lineup doesn't play the whole game - and it especially doesn't play the whole game at UNC. And I can't envision a reasonable scenario where player #6 - #9 (headlined by Nate Britt) can play top-of-the-ACC / Top-10 nationally ball. At all. And that is why I agree with Kedsy that UNC is an ACC #4/#5 or Top-25 kind of team next year.

And, of course, it's possible I'm wrong. I won't apologize for that possibility. I'll be the first one to admit that I dramatically underestimated UNC last year.

But in mid-July - there aren't many things as enjoyable as envisioning how Roy Williams is going to muck up UNC's upcoming season.

- Chillin

I think you're right about UNC being more of a top-25 team than top-10 (which is where the way-too-early preseason polls have them). Usually teams that advance far in the tournament are overrated the following season; Villanova probably won't end up playing like a top-4 team, either.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I'm expecting UNC to be a top ten team by the end of the conference season.

Roy is gonna play deep into the bench and drop a game or two that he probably could have won if he didn't go so deep, then tighten up the rotation mid way through conference play. That's just how he does things.

So they'll bounce around between top 5 and 15.

FYI, Meeks has worked hard on his body and is in good shape.

I expect Jackson to play a lot of minutes and be the leading scorer. He's a classic late bloomer.

Roy has some interesting options with his lineups...

I won't be surprised if he goes small more this year more than many think with a Hicks,Pinson,Jackson,Britt, Berry lineup.

But I'd think the majority of the time we'll see a more traditional UNC lineup of Meeks, Hicks, Jackson, Pinson, Berry as starters. First off the bench will be Britt, (and he'll get some starts over Pinson along with Berry).

Bradley, the freshman center, supposedly has the ready body and is said to be ready to contribute right away and spell Meeks, we'll see.

Maye will see some good minutes spelling Hicks at the PF spot. Word from pick up is he's been working hard on mid range shooting and knocking them down. He won't wow you but he can play and hold his own. He'll play more like a stretch 4 than Hick's power game and give the team a different look when he's in.

I think Kenny Williams showed promise and a heady game and will also contribute a lot this year at the 2g.

This is not a deep team but it has good balance and talent. I think they'll have good chemistry.

[Kedsy]

Maye will see some good minutes spelling Hicks at the PF spot. Word from pick up is he's been working hard on mid range shooting and knocking them down. He won't wow you but he can play and hold his own. He'll play more like a stretch 4 than Hick's power game and give the team a different look when he's in.

I think Kenny Williams showed promise and a heady game and will also contribute a lot this year at the 2g.

I was with you until the above two pipe dreams.

[timmy c]

Roy has some interesting options with his lineups...

Bradley, the freshman center, supposedly has the ready body and is said to be ready to contribute right away and spell Meeks, we'll see.

Maye will see some good minutes spelling Hicks at the PF spot. Word from pick up is he's been working hard on mid range shooting and knocking them down. He won't wow you but he can play and hold his own. He'll play more like a stretch 4 than Hick's power game and give the team a different look when he's in.

I think Kenny Williams showed promise and a heady game and will also contribute a lot this year at the 2g.

This is not a deep team but it has good balance and talent. I think they'll have good chemistry.

I was with you until the above two pipe dreams.

Wheat, thanks for your UNC perspective.

Meeks has shown that he can get his body ready, but he hasn't shown me enough determination. If Bradley is really ready, I expect he might get a few starts this season to go along with plenty of backup minutes.

Kenny Williams as a major contributor is a pipe dream. I expect seventh woods will pass him on the depth chart before February.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Wheat, thanks for your UNC perspective.

Meeks has shown that he can get his body ready, but he hasn't shown me enough determination. If Bradley is really ready, I expect he might get a few starts this season to go along with plenty of backup minutes.

Kenny Williams as a major contributor is a pipe dream. I expect seventh woods will pass him on the depth chart before February.

Meeks has had nagging injuries the last two years that have affected his play at times, so there's that, but I don't disagree that he needs to show more determination.

I have not seen Seventh Woods play, so I have no evaluation on him at this point.

I did watch Kenny Williams last year closely. He struggled early as a freshman but showed me some composure to his game. By the late season, Roy was using him in some key moments, in some big games, especially defensively, and he delivered some solid minutes.

I like his overall game. His shot looks good, even tho he didn't take or make many last year, nice handle, and he seems to have good feel for the court. If he comes in this year with the confidence I saw him gain last year late season, he's going to get some solid playing time.

Luke Maye is a good player. He's just not physically gifted. That said, he's not a bad athlete either.
Pick your cliche'...gym rat, heady, scrappy, whatever...he just has good instincts and rebounds well for his size. He's strong enough to hold his screening position and he can shoot it with a little space. He's going to get exposed defensively against many starting ACC power forwards, but as an off the bench player he can hold his own against opponents bench rotations. I see 10-12 minutes a game from him.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

"Just a Good Backup? Ludicrous! Nate Britt is the Second Coming (Third Coming) of Isaiah Thomas. UNC will be a Top 1 Team" - IC

Nate Britt would start on most ACC teams this season. He's not a alpha dawg, but he's a good player.

I'll bet you now that he's going to be the key player for at least two UNC wins next season.

[77devil]

Nate Britt would start on most ACC teams this season. He's not a alpha dawg, but he's a good player.

I'll bet you now that he's going to be the key player for at least two UNC wins next season.

Now that's high praise.

[Indoor66]

Nate Britt would start on most ACC teams this season. He's not a alpha dawg, but he's a good player.

I'll bet you now that he's going to be the key player for at least two UNC wins next season.

Is that all they are going to win next year?

[MChambers]

Is that all they are going to win next year?

That's two more than I'd like.

[BD80]

That's two more than I'd like.

It's three more than I'd choose for them.