The Truth about Duke’s “short bench”

[throatybeard]

There's a reason it's 1A

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I don't think these guys would be "spent." But I think it absolutely has a detrimental effect on performance late in games. Not necessarily a huge impact on fatigue, but it doesn't need to be a huge impact to have a huge impact on outcome. In a close game, if you are slightly fatigued and lose focus/effort for even a possession, that can cost you the possession. And a possession can be the difference between winning and losing in a close game.

So I think the difference between 34-36 minutes played (4-6 minutes of game rest) and 38-40 minutes played (i.e., 0-2 minutes of game rest) can have a substantial impact. But I don't think the difference between 30-32 minutes played and 34-36 minutes played would have much impact at all.

Also, no offense, but I'm quite sure that in your 12-14 bball experience you weren't being asked to expend nearly as much energy per possession as Coach K demands of Duke guys. Those guys look pretty close to spent at the end of games. And if they aren't close to spent, then they probably should have been playing harder while they were out there. No reason to save your legs for postgame, right?

Clearly it is a different level of exertion, but a 19 year old kid is taller, stronger, more mature, on a workout regimen and a monitored diet instead of pounding pizza and soda all night between competition.

And, yes, I agree there may be a late-game effect mentally, but that is a critique of in-game management of players rather than "minutes played over a season exhausting young men."

In fact, perhaps that is part of the dissent here... "one game minutes" v "average minutes in a season." Average minutes takes in blowouts, injuries, matchups, etc. Averaging over 35 minutes a game over a season has a lot of factors involved.

I doubt anyone would dispute that some guys on some nights certainly warrant 40 minutes.

[CDu]

Clearly it is a different level of exertion, but a 19 year old kid is taller, stronger, more mature, on a workout regimen and a monitored diet instead of pounding pizza and soda all night between competition.

And they are playing against other guys who are taller, stronger, and more mature.

And, yes, I agree there may be a late-game effect mentally, but that is a critique of in-game management of players rather than "minutes played over a season exhausting young men."

In fact, perhaps that is part of the dissent here... "one game minutes" v "average minutes in a season." Average minutes takes in blowouts, injuries, matchups, etc. Averaging over 35 minutes a game over a season has a lot of factors involved.

I doubt anyone would dispute that some guys on some nights certainly warrant 40 minutes.

I most certainly agree with the idea that "cumulative fatigue" over the course of the season is bogus. In fact, I specifically said so in a post in this thread.

My point was that, within a game, excessive minutes are detrimental. And a guy who averages 37+ mpg is obviously continuously pushing the limits of excessive minutes in a single game, meaning he's continually at risk of being not at his best late in games (or continually at risk of "pacing himself" during games so as to be at his best late).

I don't think it's best for a guy to play 40 minutes in a game if there are reasonable alternatives that could spell him for 5-6 minutes. I think that player will be better in 34-35 minutes than he would be in 40 minutes. Hence my point: in-game fatigue is a real thing, and players are more able to play at peak performance for 35 minutes of game play than they are at 40 minutes of game play.

Obviously, in cases where there is a huge dropoff to the backup, it may be better to play the star for 40 minutes than to go with 35 minutes of the star and 5 minutes of the backup. The idea being that 40 minutes of not optimal performance is better than 34-35 minutes of optimal performance and 5-6 minutes of REALLY not optimal performance by a backup. But that doesn't change the point that in-game fatigue is a real thing, which was my point.

As it relates to this season, the question is whether we have talented enough options to be able to optimize Allen's minutes, or whether we're better off getting a few more minutes of less-than-optimal Allen. My suspicion is that this year we'll be better off getting 33-34 minutes of Allen's absolute best rather than 37 mpg for Allen with him taking stretches of the game off to pace himself.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

As it relates to this season, the question is whether we have talented enough options to be able to optimize Allen's minutes, or whether we're better off getting a few more minutes of less-than-optimal Allen. My suspicion is that this year we'll be better off getting 33-34 minutes of Allen's absolute best rather than 37 mpg for Allen with him taking stretches of the game off to pace himself.

Obviously, all of this conversation is off-season mental, erm, calisthenics if you will. Another consideration that is very hard to predict is early-season garbage time. If Allen averages 25 minutes in the first ten games, with young guys getting some good run with late game leads and some roster experimenting, getting his average up to 37 for the season is near impossible.

I think the bigger question is:
IF coach feels he has the horses to go 8 or 9 deep regularly and IF there are no substantial injuries, and IF the young guys come along quickly... will K CHOOSE to do more subsituting than he has historically when the team comes down the stretch, as it would represent either a really great roster or a big change in coaching philosophy.

K has proven over the years to be more flexible in his coaching than most (zone D, OAD players, etc) so it is an interesting question.

One that we seem to have every summer, but interesting enough to pop back up every year.

At any rate, I don't think that player fatigue is a significant factor in these scenarios. But that's just from where I am sitting.

[CDu]

At any rate, I don't think that player fatigue is a significant factor in these scenarios. But that's just from where I am sitting.

And I think player fatigue within a game can definitely be an issue. But I think it is only relevant at more extreme minutes within a game (37+ in a regulation game, probably 40+ in a single OT game, etc.). And obviously the more games a player plays 37+ minutes, the more games fatigue can be a factor (since every game a player plays 37+ minutes he is at a risk of fatigue being a factor in that game).

Obviously there are cases where the fatigue risk is better than the alternative.

And I don't think it's a HUGE factor, as in I don't think the difference between 34 minutes and 38 minutes is a life or death style difference. But to ignore that fatigue within a game can be relevant is, I think, overly dismissive. I honestly don't see how that's really debatable. If you're capable of playing 40 minutes, presumably you are capable of exerting more for 35 minutes with a few more minutes of rest.

[JNort]

College athletes are not machines. They do get tired. "He's young. He should never run out of energy." I hate hearing that. Just because they're 18-23 doesn't mean they can't be fatigued.

But nobody seems to be saying what you did. I said in a 40 minute game .

[luburch]

But nobody seems to be saying what you did. I said in a 40 minute game .

You're saying player's shouldn't be tired at the end of a 40 minute game and they should be able to run it back without any issues. I'm saying that's ludicrous.

[Steven43]

Good analysis.

I recognize that it seems ridiculous to disagree with K on basketball matters. I still wish he'd play guys at the end of the bench more. This, of course, is coming from a guy that coached his kids through the 6th grade and never won a championship.

Well, you might not have won a championship, but did you have anyone on your rosters who has the potential to develop into a player such as Justise Winslow, Chris Duhon, Andre Dawkins, Mason Plumlee, Bobby Hurley, Amile Jefferson, Thomas Hill, Shane Battier, Carlos Boozer, Brian Davis, Nolan Smith, Brian Zoubek, Jahlil Okafor, Christian Laettner, Matt Jones, Antonio Lang, Great Nate James, Michael Dunleavy, Grant Hill, Lance Thomas, Miles Plumlee, Jon Scheyer, Jason Williams, Grayson Allen, Tyus Jones, or Kyle Singler?

Yeah, I didn't think so.

Sorry guys/gals for the senseless post, I just look for any excuse to write those names and think about each of them in a Duke uniform. It never gets old.

[JNort]

You're saying player's shouldn't be tired at the end of a 40 minute game and they should be able to run it back without any issues. I'm saying that's ludicrous.

Well they arn't playing 40 minutes is what I'm saying. They are playing 20 to 30 and getting over an hours rest in that time. If they can't play again later that day let alone the following day then somthing is wrong. Now that is for guards and smaller forwards. It takes a different toll on big men who put way more strain on their knees and feet.

Now if we are saying everyday they are playing back to backs or even 2 back to backs a week then yes I could see rest becoming a problem but for somthing that happens only a small handful of times a year and separated out I don't see how rest could ever be an issue.