Way too early 2017 projections

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The talking heads seem to be falling in love with Hicks of late. If they win it all or even get to the Finals- Hicks will be a big reason and may go after this year.

Hicks is leaps and bounds a different player than last year. Last year "Hicks" was almost as close to a dirty word as "Tokoto" for Heels fans. This year, his court sense is wildly improved.

Meeks on the other hand, is more of a mystery. He seems to have been surpassed by Hicks, but somehow stays ahead of him on the depth chart. Good ol' Roy.

[CDu]

The talking heads seem to be falling in love with Hicks of late. If they win it all or even get to the Finals- Hicks will be a big reason and may go after this year.

Hicks and Jackson are the threats if UNC makes a deep run. If both stay, UNC should be pretty good. If either goes, UNC will need to go heavy on the grad transfer market.

[Kjeffrey]

We got our first 2017 preseason top 10 today from a fairly respected source -- Ken Pomeroy:

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/statu...41169826197505

His way too early top 10:

1. Louisville
2. Kentucky
3. Duke
4. Villanova
5. Kansas
6. UNC
7. Oregon
8. Wisconsin
9. Indiana
10. Virginia

Of course, Pomeroy is respected because of his computer analysis and it's way too early to run the numbers, so this is off the top of his head. In fact, we know it is because his original list had Duke at No. 5 until someone tweeted him and reminded him that Jefferson would be back at Duke next year. This is his "revised" top 10.

Obviously, it's too early until we know who goes pro and who stays ... which fifth-year guys are added and so on. I was interested in his pick of two teams that could very well be ineligible next year (Louisville -- still waiting to see if the NCAA accepts their one-year ban -- and UNC). Interesting that he ranks Louisville so high -- I love their young talent, but No. 1?

Still, take a look and post other early projections here when they are released (ESPN usually does one right after the championship game).

I am a little surprised to see UVA so high. They are losing Brogdon, Gill and Tobey. I wasn't aware Tony Bennett had any major recruits coming in. Besides, it is very difficult to replace that kind of leadership.

[fidel]

I am a little surprised to see UVA so high. They are losing Brogdon, Gill and Tobey. I wasn't aware Tony Bennett had any major recruits coming in. Besides, it is very difficult to replace that kind of leadership.

He has the transfer Austin Nichols coming in from Memphis.

[Kedsy]

I am a little surprised to see UVA so high. They are losing Brogdon, Gill and Tobey. I wasn't aware Tony Bennett had any major recruits coming in. Besides, it is very difficult to replace that kind of leadership.

They have transfer Austin Nichols (a top 20 recruit in high school who Duke was after), plus four 4-star recruits. For Virginia, that's a pretty solid class.

[Olympic Fan]

I am a little surprised to see UVA so high. They are losing Brogdon, Gill and Tobey. I wasn't aware Tony Bennett had any major recruits coming in. Besides, it is very difficult to replace that kind of leadership.

Barring unexpected losses, Bennett starts next year with senior point guard London Perrantes and four juniors with a lot of playing experience -- Devin Hall and Isaiah Wilkins were 2016 starters, while Marial Shayok was fourth on the team in minutes played ... Darius Thompson will be a fourth-year junior.

That's a pretty experienced core.

As others have noted, they add 6-10 Austin Nichols, a former Duke recruiting target, who was the leading scorer and rebounder for Memphis as a sophomore in 2015. They also add Mamadi Diakite, a slender 6-9 forward, last year's top recruit, who redshirted, plus the nation's No. 7 recruiting class (according to ESPN). From what I hear, they expect 6-3 wing Kyle Guy to be a big impact player from day one.

I don't think Virginia will be as good as they are this season, but I don't think the dropoff will be that big. Brogdon is a special player and will be hard to replace, but Bennett has a nice experienced core and some nice additions. I can see a borderline top 10-15 team next year.

[DukeTrinity11]

If Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles are as good as advertised, Duke should be Preseason #1 regardless of whether we get Bolden or Allen goes.

For you recruiting and high school talent evaluation experts on this board, are Tatum and Giles highly touted recruits in the same vein as John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Jahlil Okafor, Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray and Brandon Ingram?

Or should our expectations be tempered as Duke fans and that they will really be more along the lines of Harrison Barnes, Josh Selby, Tobias Harris, Bradley Beal, Shabazz Muhammad, Cliff Alexander, Noah Vonleh, Kelly Oubre, Skal Labissiere and Jaylen Brown in terms of college readiness as freshman to compete?

I don't know but even if Tatum and Giles belong more with the second group of guys, we should be national contenders with our returning players: Thornton, Kennard and Jefferson (*knock on wood*).

[Faustus]

We don't even know if Rick Pitino will still be at Louisville next year. Odd choice, that...

[left_hook_lacey]

Frankly, this is not even entertaining speculation. It is pure B. S. Idle speculation based on faulty assumptions.

Soooooo, it's just as good as any other "way too early" projections?

[TexHawk]

If Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles are as good as advertised, Duke should be Preseason #1 regardless of whether we get Bolden or Allen goes.

For you recruiting and high school talent evaluation experts on this board, are Tatum and Giles highly touted recruits in the same vein as John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Jahlil Okafor, Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray and Brandon Ingram?

Or should our expectations be tempered as Duke fans and that they will really be more along the lines of Harrison Barnes, Josh Selby, Tobias Harris, Bradley Beal, Shabazz Muhammad, Cliff Alexander, Noah Vonleh, Kelly Oubre, Skal Labissiere and Jaylen Brown in terms of college readiness as freshman to compete?

I don't know but even if Tatum and Giles belong more with the second group of guys, we should be national contenders with our returning players: Thornton, Kennard and Jefferson (*knock on wood*).

Expectations for freshman are crazy these days.

Bradley Beal scored in double figures in 13 of his first 15 college games, was the 2nd leading scorer, averaging 15 points/7 reb (for a shooting guard) on a team that was two buckets short of the Final Four.

Josh Selby was also over 13 ppg in his first 13 college games (post suspension) before severely spraining his ankle. He was never the same, and couldn't get back in the rotation or get any shots when he did with Morris x2, Taylor, Robinson, Withey around.

And I know he fell short of (partly his own) lofty expectations, but Harrison Barnes did average 16/7 as a freshman, double figures in his last 15 (which included four 20 point games, and one with 40).

I would gladly take those guys as freshman.

[Troublemaker]

...are Tatum and Giles highly touted recruits in the same vein as John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Jahlil Okafor, Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray and Brandon Ingram?

Or should our expectations be tempered as Duke fans ...

The hype for this class is very high and they are expected to have an impact like those you listed. However, it's probably always a good idea to temper expectations for incoming freshmen.

Particularly in the case of Giles, imo. His past three years of high school ball:

Sophomore Yr - Out for the season
Junior Yr - Played.
Senior Yr - Out for the season

It would be completely understandable if Giles is rusty or tentative next season.

[CameronDuke]

Virginia at 10 is interesting. Losing Brogdon is going to be huge as he provides the top scoring threat for them and the top defender. Losing Gill and Tobey in the frontcourt will be tough to replace too. Nichols may step in and fill a role and they have capable players returning (Perrantes, Hall, Shayok, Wilkins and Thompson), but can they score enough next year? They are losing three of their top 4 scorers (Brogdon 18.6 PPG, Gill 13.6 PPG, and Tobey 6.9 PPG - that's 39.1 PPG they are losing for a team that doesn't score much!). Their best retuning scorer would be Perrantes at 10.9 PPG. The next leading scorer would be Wilkins at 4.6 PPG and the rest of the cast returning averages between 4.2 and 4.4 PPG. Tony Bennett will have the defense ready but can they gel without Brogdon's leadership? If Perrantes can be a more consistent scorer and Nichols can provide some buckets on the blocks and good defense, I can see them at 10. I think maybe 15-20 is a better ranking for them until their returning players and recruiting class can gel and prove me wrong. Brogdon just does so much for that team that I think it will be pretty tough for them to be a top ten program without him. Of course, if they make a final four or further this year, a 15-20 ranking for them is nothing to cry about and is actually very, very respectable and an indication of how strong the program is now.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Barring unexpected losses, Bennett starts next year with senior point guard London Perrantes and four juniors with a lot of playing experience -- Devin Hall and Isaiah Wilkins were 2016 starters, while Marial Shayok was fourth on the team in minutes played ... Darius Thompson will be a fourth-year junior.

Perrantes has to be the new Aaron Craft/Kaleb Tarczewski right? ie the player who you ask yourself, "didn't this guy's eligibility run out 2 years ago?"

[pfrduke]

Perrantes has to be the new Aaron Craft/Kaleb Tarczewski right? ie the player who you ask yourself, "didn't this guy's eligibility run out 2 years ago?"

On this point, I could not believe Roosevelt Jones was still playing for Butler this season. I would have sworn he was on the Butler team we played in the finals (which is obviously wrong, but still - he's been there forever).

[Merlindevildog91]

On this point, I could not believe Roosevelt Jones was still playing for Butler this season. I would have sworn he was on the Butler team we played in the finals (which is obviously wrong, but still - he's been there forever).

I said exactly the same thing about Roosevelt Jones during the last Butler game. The announcer said he missed two seasons with wrist surgery, but the Butler website said it was only one.

[COYS]

If Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles are as good as advertised, Duke should be Preseason #1 regardless of whether we get Bolden or Allen goes.

For you recruiting and high school talent evaluation experts on this board, are Tatum and Giles highly touted recruits in the same vein as John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Jahlil Okafor, Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray and Brandon Ingram?

Or should our expectations be tempered as Duke fans and that they will really be more along the lines of Harrison Barnes, Josh Selby, Tobias Harris, Bradley Beal, Shabazz Muhammad, Cliff Alexander, Noah Vonleh, Kelly Oubre, Skal Labissiere and Jaylen Brown in terms of college readiness as freshman to compete?

I don't know but even if Tatum and Giles belong more with the second group of guys, we should be national contenders with our returning players: Thornton, Kennard and Jefferson (*knock on wood*).

I think that Tatum is definitely expected to be in contention for the number 1 pick in what is supposed to be a loaded draft. So, whether fair or unfair, he definitely projects to be in your first group of players. I also feel like K's track record has been REALLY good at getting super talented freshman to play well their first year in college. In many ways, Brandon has struggled the most and yet no one would bother thinking about his first eight games of the season anymore when deciding whether or not he's had a good year. Giles, pre injury, was projected as the number one pick ahead of Tatum. How he recovers is obviously key. If he gets back to pre-injury form quickly, then he likely falls into that first group.

I think an equally interesting question is where does Frank Jackson end up, especially if Grayson goes pro? Jackson's ranking is similar to Justise's ranking. If Grayson leaves for the pros, Jackson's game fills a void in next year's roster as he fits the super-athletic guard/wing bill. There is no doubt that Derryck, Luke, and Matt will play a lot, but there is definitely room for Frank in that mix of perimeter players, particularly if Tatum ends up being effective playing the 4. Jah and Tyus were incredible as freshmen, but of course they were expected to be. Justise exceeded expectations and that was a big reason the team won the title. If Grayson leaves, I hope that Frank has a year like Justise (or like freshman year Rasheed, also really good).

[Nugget]

We got our first 2017 preseason top 10 today from a fairly respected source -- Ken Pomeroy:

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/statu...41169826197505

His way too early top 10:

1. Louisville
2. Kentucky
3. Duke
4. Villanova
5. Kansas
6. UNC
7. Oregon
8. Wisconsin
9. Indiana
10. Virginia.

Based on who is likely to come back/be added, this seems a little high for Villanova (Kansas is almost definitely going to be better than Nova with Mason, Graham and Selden all unlikely to leave early and Diallo not really having had a chance to show his lottery skills this year) and Wisconsin.

I would expect other top 10-15 candidates to include Michigan St. (especially if Davis comes back) and Arizona -- let's assume Josh Jackson goes to MSU and Terrence Ferguson to Zona, in which case both teams will be loaded with at least 4 quality freshmen very, very close to Kentucky/Duke levels, plus solid cores of at least 4-5 proven returnees each;

plus Xavier, Michigan and U.Conn. UCLA and Notre Dame should also both be solid next year.

[W&LHoo]

Virginia at 10 is interesting. Losing Brogdon is going to be huge as he provides the top scoring threat for them and the top defender. Losing Gill and Tobey in the frontcourt will be tough to replace too. Nichols may step in and fill a role and they have capable players returning (Perrantes, Hall, Shayok, Wilkins and Thompson), but can they score enough next year? They are losing three of their top 4 scorers (Brogdon 18.6 PPG, Gill 13.6 PPG, and Tobey 6.9 PPG - that's 39.1 PPG they are losing for a team that doesn't score much!). Their best retuning scorer would be Perrantes at 10.9 PPG. The next leading scorer would be Wilkins at 4.6 PPG and the rest of the cast returning averages between 4.2 and 4.4 PPG. Tony Bennett will have the defense ready but can they gel without Brogdon's leadership? If Perrantes can be a more consistent scorer and Nichols can provide some buckets on the blocks and good defense, I can see them at 10. I think maybe 15-20 is a better ranking for them until their returning players and recruiting class can gel and prove me wrong. Brogdon just does so much for that team that I think it will be pretty tough for them to be a top ten program without him. Of course, if they make a final four or further this year, a 15-20 ranking for them is nothing to cry about and is actually very, very respectable and an indication of how strong the program is now.

I think you'll see other players (Perrantes, Shayok, and Wilkins) ramp up their scoring. A version of "how are they going to be good without _______ ?" Has been floated every year for the past several. Mike Scott, Joe Harris, and Justin Anderson all left for the NBA, and each year the team has managed to be as strong or stronger.

Obviously this is a special year, and Brogdon is a great player whose jersey UVA will - almost certainly - retire. However, the real star for Bennett's teams is the system, not any one player. UVA will remain a top team unless talent dramatically falls off or Tony ceases to be the coach.

[CDu]

I think you'll see other players (Perrantes, Shayok, and Wilkins) ramp up their scoring. A version of "how are they going to be good without _______ ?" Has been floated every year for the past several. Mike Scott, Joe Harris, and Justin Anderson all left for the NBA, and each year the team has managed to be as strong or stronger.

Obviously this is a special year, and Brogdon is a great player whose jersey UVA will - almost certainly - retire. However, the real star for Bennett's teams is the system, not any one player. UVA will remain a top team unless talent dramatically falls off or Tony ceases to be the coach.

Yeah, I have in past years questioned whether UVa will keep it up. There is a question each year as to how they will replace so-and-so. But they have answered the questions each year, both inside and out. My guess is that Nichols contributes immediately in place of Gill. I expect Perrantes to step up another notch or two. I think Hall and/or Shayok will make a jump on the wing, and Diakite is an X-factor. Not yo mention the incoming freshmen, some of whom who I am sure will contribute right away. Nichols and Diakite are interesting in that they are the highest profile recruits Bennett has had at UVa (Diakite straight from high school, Nichols via transfer). Bennett has made it work with lesser recruits historically, but now he gets to try it with better talent (on paper).

[tbyers11]

I think you'll see other players (Perrantes, Shayok, and Wilkins) ramp up their scoring. A version of "how are they going to be good without _______ ?" Has been floated every year for the past several. Mike Scott, Joe Harris, and Justin Anderson all left for the NBA, and each year the team has managed to be as strong or stronger.

Obviously this is a special year, and Brogdon is a great player whose jersey UVA will - almost certainly - retire. However, the real star for Bennett's teams is the system, not any one player. UVA will remain a top team unless talent dramatically falls off or Tony ceases to be the coach.

Bennett has shown that the system can replace its parts the last 3 years to keep a very good team in place. The addition of Nichols should help replace Gill very well. Perrantes will likely be the focal perimeter player. Wilkins, Shayok and Hall will step up from 4th and 5th options to 2nd and 3rd options.

However, I think the loss of Brogdon will probably knock UVA from the top 5 team (1 or 2 NCAA seed) they have been the last 3 years to about a top 15 team. Although the system is impressive it is still difficult to turn a 1st or 2nd option into a first team All-American. The constant over the last 3 years of great teams has been Brogdon. His ability to get his own shot and to guard the other team's best player at 4 positions is pretty amazing. I will miss watching him play in college.