MBB: NCAA Seeding, Bubble Talk, Bracketing, etc Collector Thread

[Troublemaker]

Yesterday and today, the NCAA held its Mock Selection where media members gathered in Indianapolis to simulate creating an NCAA bracket in the manner the actual Selection Committee will do it.

Here's the final Seed List they created (Duke #23 overall):




Here's the final Bracket they created (Duke 6 seed in the East):

[Troublemaker]

8 ACC teams were selected:

2-seed UVA in East
2-seed UNC in South
4-seed Miami in Midwest
6-seed Notre Dame in West
6-seed Duke in East
7-seed Pittsburgh in Midwest
9-seed Syracuse in Midwest
9-seed FSU in West

No Clemson.

Also:

Jon RothsteinVerified account ‏@JonRothstein 23h23 hours ago
Syracuse will be evaluated for the NCAA Tournament based on what it will have shown under Jim Boeheim, per the NCAA. #MockSelection

That's huge for Syracuse, who struggled without their coach.

[Troublemaker]

Here's what that final bracket looks like when actually bracketed:

East



South:



Midwest:



West:

[CDu]

8 ACC teams were selected:

2-seed UVA in East
2-seed UNC in South
4-seed Miami in Midwest
6-seed Notre Dame in West
6-seed Duke in East
7-seed Pittsburgh in Midwest
9-seed Syracuse in Midwest
9-seed FSU in West

No Clemson.

Also:

Jon RothsteinVerified account ‏@JonRothstein 23h23 hours ago
Syracuse will be evaluated for the NCAA Tournament based on what it will have shown under Jim Boeheim, per the NCAA. #MockSelection

That's huge for Syracuse, who struggled without their coach.

I have a feeling that FSU will find their way out of the tourney field when all is said and done. They have a tough back end of the schedule. @Miami, @Duke, and vs Syracuse and Notre Dame at home could very well put them at 10 losses in the ACC. And then they still have to go Va Tech and play Ga Tech at home. For a team that is 2-6 against the top-50 (just 5-8 against the top-100), that's not a promising situation.

I'm also not sure I buy Pitt as a 7-seed. They haven't done much yet (1-3 vs top-25, 3-4 vs top-50) and they finish with four likely losses (Duke, @UNC, @Syracuse, Louisville) in their last 7. And their other 3 games (@both Techs, Wake) aren't gimmes. They could easily end up under .500 in conference.

Clemson has a nice end of their schedule, but they've gone just 6-7 against the top-100 and they have 3 losses outside the top-100 (two outside the top-150). That's awful. yes, they have a 6-6 record against the top-50 (2-3 against the top-25), but that is a LOT to overcome. And they have really struggled away from "home", going just 3-7. They very much fit the mold of a team that could miss the tourney at 11-7, and 11-7 is almost a best-case scenario for them right now (it assumes only one loss among the games against Ga Tech (home and away) and at State).

My guess is we get 6 or 7 teams in (would be 7 or 8 with Louisville), with one of Clemson, FSU, and Pitt getting in. I just can't see rewarding those teams' awful out of conference schedules.

[JasonEvans]

Jon RothsteinVerified account ‏@JonRothstein 23h23 hours ago
Syracuse will be evaluated for the NCAA Tournament based on what it will have shown under Jim Boeheim, per the NCAA. #MockSelection

That's huge for Syracuse, who struggled without their coach.

I am really torn about this. On the one hand, I am very troubled that the NCAA selection committee is going to ignore sanctions put in place by the NCAA Committee on Infractions. Syracuse screwed up and Boeheim screwed up. They were penalized for it. For the selection committee to ignore it seems ridiculous.

But... if you ended up knocking Syr down a couple seeds (or more) for the team going 4-5 without Jimmy B, how fair is that to the teams they play in the tourney? If they were an 6 seed with JB and are instead given an 8 seed, isn't that really unfair to the 9 and the 1 who have to play a much better than expected #8 seed?

Does this mean that Syracuse is nowhere near the bubble? Take away that 4-5 stretch, which included a bad loss to St John, and Syracuse is a pretty darn impressive 13-3 with only losses to Wisconsin, UNC, and Virginia.

-Jason "I find this decision very confusing" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

That's not a bad snapshot -- as of today.

Obviously, a lot can change in the next month.

Duke's resume is pretty good at the moment (Feb. 12), despite its problems -- No. 19 in the RPI with a No. 26 SOS (that's going to climb as Duke finishes up with UNC twice, Virginia, Louisville an FSU).

Duke is actually weak on top-end wins -- 0-4 vs. the top 25, 2-5 vs. the top 50 and 7-6 vs. the top 100 (Duke has five wins against teams ranked 102 to 106, so that could change).

On the other hand, Duke has nothing like bad loss (losing at No. 83 Clemson is the worst). Very little chance to get a bad loss going forward -- BC is the only ACC team not in the top 150 and only a very small chance that Duke and Wake could meet in the early rounds of the ACC Tournament.

Still, Duke has seven games left in the ACC regular season -- two are likely wins (FSU and Wake at home) ... two are likely losses (at UNC and at Louisville) ... and three are real tossups (at Pitt and UNC, Virginia at home). The outcome of those seven games -- plus whatever happens in the ACC Tournament -- will have a huge impact on Duke's ultimate seed.

In addition, Jefferson will factor in. If he does not return by Selection Sunday, Duke will be judged on how the team has played without him. If he does return and play near his pre-injury level, to some degree Duke's struggles without him will be discounted.

That's why I think there is still a huge difference between Duke's possible best seed and possible worst seed.

PS I think the mock committee got Clemson and FSU right -- as of today. Both are close enough to the line to flipflop ... or to both end in the field ... or both end up missing the field.

PPS I apologize for using RPI. I know there are better measures (Pomeroy for one). But RPI is the tool the committee uses -- not so much to rank the teams but to measure their wins and losses.

[budwom]

a couple more wins and I think we're fine, then the NCAA can tell us where we're playing Maryland because I think that's inevitable. (not first round, of course).

[Troublemaker]

I am really torn about this. On the one hand, I am very troubled that the NCAA selection committee is going to ignore sanctions put in place by the NCAA Committee on Infractions. Syracuse screwed up and Boeheim screwed up. They were penalized for it. For the selection committee to ignore it seems ridiculous.

But... if you ended up knocking Syr down a couple seeds (or more) for the team going 4-5 without Jimmy B, how fair is that to the teams they play in the tourney? If they were an 6 seed with JB and are instead given an 8 seed, isn't that really unfair to the 9 and the 1 who have to play a much better than expected #8 seed?

Does this mean that Syracuse is nowhere near the bubble? Take away that 4-5 stretch, which included a bad loss to St John, and Syracuse is a pretty darn impressive 13-3 with only losses to Wisconsin, UNC, and Virginia.

This one's an easy call to me; the Selection Committee did the right thing. When you consider that Syracuse was punished in many different ways -- vacating of wins, loss of scholarships, fines, return of revenues earned, etc -- and that the biggest punishment of all is, imo, loss of reputation, then ignoring Syracuse's struggles this season when playing without Boeheim isn't a big deal. The committee is basically ignoring ~1% of Syracuse's overall punishment to ensure that no team in the NCAA field is "punished" by having to face an underseeded Cuse team. That seems sensible and fair to me.

[Troublemaker]

Still, Duke has seven games left in the ACC regular season -- two are likely wins (FSU and Wake at home) ... two are likely losses (at UNC and at Louisville) ... and three are real tossups (at Pitt and UNC, Virginia at home). The outcome of those seven games -- plus whatever happens in the ACC Tournament -- will have a huge impact on Duke's ultimate seed.

In addition, Jefferson will factor in. If he does not return by Selection Sunday, Duke will be judged on how the team has played without him. If he does return and play near his pre-injury level, to some degree Duke's struggles without him will be discounted.

That's why I think there is still a huge difference between Duke's possible best seed and possible worst seed.

Looking at Duke's path in that mock bracket, or the path of any of the 6 seeds really, I'm definitely hoping Duke can finish strong to get a higher seed.

a couple more wins and I think we're fine, then the NCAA can tell us where we're playing Maryland because I think that's inevitable. (not first round, of course).

I can definitely envision Duke improving to a 3 seed and being bracketed with Maryland as a 2 seed in any of the non-West regions.

[BandAlum83]

Am I wrong and totally in denial to think we will get Amile back soon, win out, get #1 seed in ACC tourney, win it and be on the bubble for a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney?

Sending positive thoughts out to the blogosphere...

[Troublemaker]

Am I wrong and totally in denial to think we will get Amile back soon, win out, get #1 seed in ACC tourney, win it and be on the bubble for a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney?

Sending positive thoughts out to the blogosphere...

If Duke wins out, we would likely challenge for the overall #1 seed, considering the slate of opponents we'd have to conquer to win out and how the committee would HAVE to ignore all the non-Amile games.

You're not crazy. I've thought about it.

But settle down, my friend. Let's see if our team can beat a very good UVA team at home tomorrow first.

[BandAlum83]

It's a thought I take one game at a time!

And auto correct got me, I was actually sending positive thoughts to the HOOPOSPHERE.

[Troublemaker]

Duke is up to a 4 seed now in the latest Bracket Matrix (2/22/16, 9:07am) as of the time of this post, with a few giving us a 3 seed and a few giving us a 5 seed as well.

If Duke manages to win the last four games of the regular season, I think we'll be contending for a 2 seed at that point. Note that UNC is a 2 seed right now, and Duke has a chance to sweep them.

The ACC has 7 teams in, with Cuse and Pitt being seeded the lowest as 9 seeds. FSU has "Next 4 out" status and Clemson doesn't even have that as of now.

[moonpie23]

unc is 3.9 secs away from the 1-line if uva loses...

[Olympic Fan]

unc is 3.9 secs away from the 1-line if uva loses...

Lunardi said that if Virginia were to lose (and they did) then UNC is back on the one line.

But to stay there, the Cheats have to win Sunday in Charlottesville.

Don't worry about it ... it's all in flux.

[BD80]

Kind of interesting: looks like this regular season, Duke will have played the regular season champions of:

The ACC (W)
The BIG 10/11/14/whatever (W)
The SEC (L)
The Pac 12 (L)
The Ivy League (W)
The Atlantic 10 (W)

and Buffalo still has a shot in the Mid-American

[SCMatt33]

So is Georgia tech a bubble team all of a sudden? I saw a Tech fan post online asking this and laughed, but the numbers seem to support it. They're quietly on a 4 game win streak and can still get to 9-9 in the league. That would take a huge effort, as they have to win at Louisville plus home against Pitt to do it, but if they somehow make that happen, plus avoid a bad Wednesday loss in the ACCT, they'll enter selection Sunday with good wins against UVA, ND, and Louisville. They'd have bubble wins over FSU, Pitt, and VCU. They're only awful loss is to ETSU, plus meh losses against Georgia and Va Tech. They're computer number have them in the low 70's for rpi at the moment and low 60's for KenPom, but if they're winning out like they need to, those numbers should get a 10 spot bump at least into a more palatable range for the committee. They'd also be at only 13 total losses, which is well within at large range (14 is quite rare for a bid, but has been done). I fully expect them to lose on Tuesday and that will be the end of that, but I'm shocked that I'm writing a not ridiculous post about GTech and the bubble at all. At the very least, avoiding 3 straight losses could get them to the NIT.

[Troublemaker]

I agree with you. If GaTech wins out and finishes 19-12 (9-9), they will be on the bubble. Winning at Louisville would serve as the signature win on the NCAA resume. Let's see if they can do it.

[budwom]

watching the Hole game on DVR last night, I got a kick out of ESPN several times showing the standings of the ACC top four...they showed
UVA in fourth place at 10-5, but Duke (same record, and a win over UVA) no place to be found...they excel at this kind of stuff.

[gurufrisbee]

If Cuse is being judged on just their Boeheim games, does Duke get judged on just our games with Amile and Matt healthy if they both are healthy in the next two weeks? There is a very legitimate case to be made that fully healthy we would have, at most, 2 losses - which would have us ranked #1 in the nation.