MBB: Duke vs. Yale (Nov 25, 7 pm, ESPNU) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Olympic Fan]

Yale and Utah State are not soft pitches (mediocre KenPom ratings but both 3-0) and give us an opportunity to develop.

I think both Yale and Utah State will 3end up ranked higher in the RPI than in KenPom. Both are contenders in their conferences and are likely to post strong overall records.

Hey, I know how flawed RPI is, but it's the ranking that matters to the committee.

But agree that the two games should give our kids more chance to development. I think it's especially important for Brandon and/or Luke to emerge as another consistent scoring threat. I think we know what MP3, Amile and Matt bring to the table -- at this stage in their careers, it's not likely to suddenly change. We can't ask any more of Grayson than he's giving us. And Derryck is definitely ahead of his projected schedule.

Chase has a lot of room for development, but I doubt he emerges this year as a consistent scoring threat. That leaves Brandon and Luke -- both have the potential to be consistent double figure scorers -- and we're going to need that. We can't keep expecting Brandon to score 30-plus against strong teams (and losing when he doesn't).

[Lar77]

I think both Yale and Utah State will 3end up ranked higher in the RPI than in KenPom. Both are contenders in their conferences and are likely to post strong overall records.

Hey, I know how flawed RPI is, but it's the ranking that matters to the committee.

But agree that the two games should give our kids more chance to development. I think it's especially important for Brandon and/or Luke to emerge as another consistent scoring threat. I think we know what MP3, Amile and Matt bring to the table -- at this stage in their careers, it's not likely to suddenly change. We can't ask any more of Grayson than he's giving us. And Derryck is definitely ahead of his projected schedule.

Chase has a lot of room for development, but I doubt he emerges this year as a consistent scoring threat. That leaves Brandon and Luke -- both have the potential to be consistent double figure scorers -- and we're going to need that. We can't keep expecting Brandon to score 30-plus against strong teams (and losing when he doesn't).

I agree. We've been relying on Grayson too much. Even though he has responded, he's not scoring 30 points a game. Matt's an opportunistic scorer and Derryck seems to be responding to his new role as a scorer and playmaker (and can make FTs). But those three will probably settle in for 50 a game (48?). MP3 and Amile are who thought they would be (even a little better). Add in a dozen. So scoring has to come from the other 3 freshman. Luke and Brandon should be able to get 20 between them. Chase will contribute his in spots.

Based on our defense so far, I think as a team we need 80 points to feel somewhat comfortable.

[weezie]

I gave our tix to a family member and his five year old son. The little shaver has had a Duke fixation since he was a toddler. They live in Greensboro and this will be the youngster's first live game. I wish I could be there to see his excitement so if any of you who know where we sit are going to be there, tell him Aunt weezie says hello. Cute as a little button, he is.

[Bob Green]

I love what we're getting from the three upperclassmen and Grayson has been phenomenal in four of our five games, but we need Ingram and Kennard to emerge as scoring threats if we're going to be the team we hope to be.

I agree this game will be a good opportunity for Ingram and Kennard to get it going on offense. On defense, I'll be watching to see if we mix things up by switching between multiple defenses. We all know we will see M2M and the basic 2-3 Zone, but I am interested in seeing if we utilize the 1-3-1 again plus some sort of 3/4 court trap.

Witnessing this team develop its defensive identity is going to be enjoyable.

[Troublemaker]

I agree this game will be a good opportunity for Ingram and Kennard to get it going on offense. On defense, I'll be watching to see if we mix things up by switching between multiple defenses. We all know we will see M2M and the basic 2-3 Zone, but I am interested in seeing if we utilize the 1-3-1 again plus some sort of 3/4 court trap.

Witnessing this team develop its defensive identity is going to be enjoyable.

Agreed. We haven't played all that well in the 2-3 zone this season, but we've shown some promising signs of being a disruptive defense in the 1-3-1. I'd like to see us develop our M2M and our 1-3-1 in this game. The 2-3, I'm about ready to toss in the garbage bin. At least for the time being.

[Henderson]

I gave our tix to a family member and his five year old son. The little shaver has had a Duke fixation since he was a toddler. They live in Greensboro and this will be the youngster's first live game. I wish I could be there to see his excitement so if any of you who know where we sit are going to be there, tell him Aunt weezie says hello. Cute as a little button, he is.

Will make his day, I'm sure. Sporkification coming your way.

[COYS]

Agreed. We haven't played all that well in the 2-3 zone this season, but we've shown some promising signs of being a disruptive defense in the 1-3-1. I'd like to see us develop our M2M and our 1-3-1 in this game. The 2-3, I'm about ready to toss in the garbage bin. At least for the time being.

This definitely reflects my observations, too. Does anyone know if there is a website that breaks down defensive efficiency by type of defense? I feel as if our 2-3 has been particularly ineffective this season, far more so than our man-to-man. But it could also be that I watch more closely when we play zone simply because it still surprises me when we do it for an extended period, even after last season. Therefore, I tend to remember the negative outcomes more clearly.

[uh_no]

This definitely reflects my observations, too. Does anyone know if there is a website that breaks down defensive efficiency by type of defense? I feel as if our 2-3 has been particularly ineffective this season, far more so than our man-to-man. But it could also be that I watch more closely when we play zone simply because it still surprises me when we do it for an extended period, even after last season. Therefore, I tend to remember the negative outcomes more clearly.

kenpom tracks it on a per-game basis...what % of possessions were man or zone, and you should be able to come up with rough efficiencies of each on a per-posesesion basis.

i don't know of anyone who explicitly tracks that, or breaks down the D to the type of zone.

[COYS]

kenpom tracks it on a per-game basis...what % of possessions were man or zone, and you should be able to come up with rough efficiencies of each on a per-posesesion basis.

i don't know of anyone who explicitly tracks that, or breaks down the D to the type of zone.

Looks like I'll be shelling out the $20 for a subscription . . .

[Troublemaker]

kenpom tracks it on a per-game basis...what % of possessions were man or zone, and you should be able to come up with rough efficiencies of each on a per-posesesion basis.

i don't know of anyone who explicitly tracks that, or breaks down the D to the type of zone.

I'm a Kenpom subscriber, and I'm not aware that he tracks that and I can't see how he could track that. Ultimately, all of his data are derived from the information contained in a standard box score and standard play-by-play, which do not break down man vs zone possessions. I think you may be mistaking his service for something more costly like Synergy, who employs people to watch games and chart each possession by what offensive plays and defenses are being run. Pomeroy, as far as I know, is one man who gathers data by writing automated computer scripts to cull basic stats from standard box scores and play-by-plays and then derives more advanced stats (tempo-free) from those basic ones.

[Troublemaker]

Uh_no, not to pick on you, but in another thread you wrote this:

great writeup. it will certainly be interesting to watch going forward.

Hopefully kenpom puts his per-lineup stats back up like he had last year...

Kenpom does not break down his stats by lineup.

Either you have a higher subscription than I do (but I'm only aware of one level of subscriber), or you're mistaking his service for someone else's.

[uh_no]

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke&y=2015

bottom: he tracks the usage and efficiency of each player in each lineup combination, as well as the amount of time that lineup is used.

http://kenpom.com/gameplan.php?team=Duke

for each game, he tracks whether the opponent used all man, mostly man, mostly zone, or all zone....but now that I look at it, it appears static...so perhaps he assigns a value for each team and uses that? hm

either way, he definitely tracks individual efficiency on a per lineup basis, which used in conjunction with the usage percentages (for both individual and lineup) can be used to generate efficiencies per lineup.

he doesn't seem to have that posted this year though.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

FYI, my ESPN app is now listing this game at 5pm... any explanation?

[Bob Green]

FYI, my ESPN app is now listing this game at 5pm... any explanation?

Perhaps your app thinks you are in Mountain Time. My computer still says 7 pm Eastern.

[Troublemaker]

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke&y=2015

bottom: he tracks the usage and efficiency of each player in each lineup combination, as well as the amount of time that lineup is used.

<snip>

either way, he definitely tracks individual efficiency on a per lineup basis, which used in conjunction with the usage percentages (for both individual and lineup) can be used to generate efficiencies per lineup.

One of us is reading it wrong. From what I can tell, he tracks the frequency of each lineup (as explained here by him) but nothing else (no lineup efficiencies). For example, in the link you provide, the number 46.1% indicates that Coach played our starting lineup together 46.1% of all minutes. That's frequency data. But, what number corresponds to Tyus' efficiency in this lineup? Or the efficiency of the lineup itself? That data isn't there, from what I can tell.

I would love to be wrong, as that would be cool data to have.

http://kenpom.com/gameplan.php?team=Duke

for each game, he tracks whether the opponent used all man, mostly man, mostly zone, or all zone...but now that I look at it, it appears static...so perhaps he assigns a value for each team and uses that? hm

That's right. He uses an algorithm to estimate how much zone or m2m a team plays based entirely on their statistical profile and then places teams into one of 4 high-level categories - "Mostly Man," "Mostly Zone," "Some Zone," "Inconclusive." He calls it a team's defensive fingerprint. But he does NOT have actual real numerical data (e.g. number of possessions of zone played) because he does not have people watching and charting games.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Perhaps your app thinks you are in Mountain Time. My computer still says 7 pm Eastern.

Strange. It just changed back. Watched it happen. Must be the turkeys at ESPN.

Good - 7pm is far for convenient for me.

[uh_no]

One of us is reading it wrong. From what I can tell, he tracks the frequency of each lineup (as explained here by him) but nothing else (no lineup efficiencies). For example, in the link you provide, the number 46.1% indicates that Coach played our starting lineup together 46.1% of all minutes. But, what number corresponds to Tyus' efficiency in this lineup? Or the efficiency of the lineup itself? That data isn't there, from what I can tell.

I would love to be wrong, as that would be cool data to have.

In the words of Dear Mr Bennet: Read On!

Border thickness proportional to player %Poss, green shading proportional to 3PA/(.475*FTA+FGA)

but it appears i'm wrong again, as it seems to be static for a given player, and is not per lineup
Mr. Pom: I am dissapoint!

[Troublemaker]

In the words of Dear Mr Bennet: Read On!



but it appears i'm wrong again, as it seems to be static for a given player, and is not per lineup
Mr. Pom: I am dissapoint!

Right, plus the border thickness indicates that player's usage, and the green shading indicates how often that player shoots 3s, so, as clever as that "at a glance" summary is by KenPom, he's not indicating efficiency with it.

He SHOULD be able to provide lineup efficiencies, though, so like you I hope he does so one day. Although that is lower on my wishlist. The #1 feature I would want KenPom to add is a breakdown of efficiencies by types of change of possession, e.g. After Made Shot, After Missed Shot, After Turnover. Some teams may be great in transition but a poor halfcourt team. That kind of breakdown can help tease that out.

[uh_no]

Right, plus the border thickness indicates that player's usage, and the green shading indicates how often that player shoots 3s, so, as clever as that "at a glance" summary is by KenPom, he's not indicating efficiency with it.

He SHOULD be able to provide lineup efficiencies, though, so like you I hope he does so one day. Although that is lower on my wishlist. The #1 feature I would want KenPom to add is a breakdown of efficiencies by types of change of possession, e.g. After Made Shot, After Missed Shot, After Turnover. Some teams may be great in transition but a poor halfcourt team. That kind of breakdown can help tease that out.

this should be *relatively* easy to do since NCAA makes PbP data available (i think)....for any enterprising undergrad who wants to write me a scraper!

[Isaac Sours]

As long as we're playing alto-gether, we'll be fine.

These puns are falling a little flat. Maybe scale them back a little bit? I feel they will affect the harmony of this thread.