One point of disagreement, my friend.
I don't know if that lineup will technically start or not -- as you know, a lot of that is just a matter of semantics -- but I would be surprised if the lineup that receives the most minutes this season ISN'T Thornton-Allen-Jones-Ingram-(Center), with (Center) most likely being Amile.
I just don't see any way around it. Derryck, Grayson, and Matt are all too good not to receive starter's minutes. And once Luke gets his shot going, 120 minutes total just for those 4 guys will be barely enough.
Interesting stat about Luke: he's played 96 total minutes now and hasn't committed a single turnover yet this season. What a great job the freshman has done protecting the ball. Luke's probably the most polished freshman right now, but his talent level is lower than Derryck's or Brandon's (but still pretty high on an absolute scale) and he hasn't gotten his shot going. He's going to continue to deserve 20 mpg when his shot starts falling. In competitive games, I see the minutes on the perimeter being something like this: Derryck(30), Grayson(35), Matt(35), Luke (20).
Brandon will be converted to a stretch-4 and the 1-3-1 zone will become a staple of our defense. That's what I see happening.
I agree with this, simply because he will have to - Amile and Marshall, as much as I love em, are limited offensively. Having Ingram out there at the 4 with the other guys gives the offense a more dynamic look and takes some of the heat off Grayson Allen.
This year's Duke team can survive one offensive liability, but not two. Okafor, Jones and Winslow aren't coming back through the door.
That's exactly right. In fact, the conversion to full-time Stretch 4 may have already started. In Neals' plus-minus lineups for the G'town game, we can see that Brandon ONLY played the 4 and some 5 yesterday, the latter when we were trying to close out the game. And this is against Georgetown, a big team, mind you.
If you put Brandon at the 4, he's usually going to be quicker than the man guarding him. If he can pull his game together and also start shooting like he's capable of, all of a sudden we have a dynamic second option to pair with Grayson.
Even with his struggles yesterday, you could see his potential at the 4. There was one play where Duke was in our usual "Horns" set and he received the entry pass at the elbow, turned, and drove one step into the big guarding him. Tweet, blocking foul called. So easy. There were also a couple of plays where he set a high-ball screen and popped out to the wing and was wide open. Our guards will get used to finding him for easy threes on those plays.
The concern with Brandon at the 4 will be two-fold:
1) Getting posted up. This one I would invite. First of all, we're going to zone more this season than usual, and in the 1-3-1, he'd usually be up top anyway. Second of all, if he does get posted up, fine! With the rules and points of emphasis the way they are this season, please waste your time posting up instead of giving the ball to your guards to drive, hypothetical opponent. Brandon will just need to maintain verticality when posted up so he doesn't collect fouls.
2) Rebounding. Again, mitigated somewhat if we're playing 1-3-1 with Brandon at the top and Amile in the middle, who can use his great rebounding instincts to hopefully hold his own on the boards in there. The perimeter will also have to do a good job helping out on the boards.
My working theory is that the offensive advantage gained with Brandon at the 4 far outweighs any dropoff in defense and rebounding. Duke should be the best offense in the country with Brandon as stretch 4.
Ingram's issues at 4/5 will be strength/weight related. But he has better quickness and athleticism and length than *most* of the college 4s/5s out there, so that would be a wash, I think.
Also, an advantage of Brandon at the 4 is that all of those wide open 15 foot jumpers than Amile passes up will now be an actual threat and a zone killer. I see Ingram being able to fill the Jabari/Rodney Hood role.
Exactly what I'm thinking again.
Brandon-at-4 will create a situation where most opponents can't guard us in m2m BUT they ALSO can't zone to slow us down. Meanwhile, hopefully Duke's 1-3-1 will work to slow down most teams using Brandon and Amile's length. We can zone effectively, but the opponent can't. That's a great situation to be in under the current season's rules. That's the idea, anyway. Let's see what Coach is thinking and how it plays out.
Have we seen much 3-2 zone, a la Syracuse? (I was out of town last week and missed most of the games)
I feel like having Ingram at the top of that zone would be pretty nice and we could play Amile/MP3 in that look on the block.
Will be an interesting season for sure, and this team is brimming with potential. Just hope they put it all together.
Ingram is probably the most talented player on the team. He's the one guy that we have that 99% of opposing teams won't have a good guy to match up with. He's the spearhead of our 1-3-1 zone. That said, he has absolutely struggled adjusting to the speed and intensity of the college game. I think he's also struggling with not being the #1 option on offense. The first couple of games, it seemed like the coaching staff wanted him to focus on getting his shot, but it quickly became apparent that he lacked either the killer instinct or just enough touch to justify him as our #1 or #1A option, and he has struggled to fit in since then.
Ingram will get it going at some point, as he is way too talented to keep playing this poorly. I believe the same is true of Kennard, and even Jeter, who had a brilliant 2 or 3 minutes against Georgetown. Thornton has already put a slow start behind him and is looking more confident each game. Hopefully, he develops his play making instincts to become a better facilitator, because with his creativity handling the ball, he really could be the catalyst this offense needs to become dominant. It would help Ingram out as well, as he is having trouble getting his own shot.
I still think the best starting lineup at some point will include Ingram, but he will need to be brought along more slowly than initially anticipated. This is not last year's recruiting class, with 2 NBA ready freshmen from game 1. Ingram should still be a 1 and done. Hopefully, his best games will come in February and March.
I don't think anyone is celebrating anything. I think the thread's intent and initial post by Oriole were spot on. Ingram has struggled early on in his Duke career. IMHO He doesn't have the physical strength to assert himself in the paint, or in 50/50 ball situations, and I believe his efforts to get stronger have impacted his jumper to some degree. All of this is normal stuff for a talented kid to go through as he makes an adjustment to the HS game. The real problem is EXPECTATIONS. Over the past now several years that Duke has seen O&D players come through the program, it's been very evident immediately that the O&Ds were simply on another level. Not just great players, but special players in an almost man among boys setting on the court. So naturally, when Ingram was billed as a for sure O&D, we all as fans expected to see this same story line continue. When it didn't, at least early on, we were left to scratch out heads and wonder what's going on. Every player has to run their own race, it's cliche but true. Who knows, maybe Ingram has the light bulb come on as the season progresses and proves to be that O&D player that all of the pre-season prognosticators said he would be. There are other very talented freshmen players on Duke's team still working to figure things out at the next level. Perception has not met early reality with Ingram early on, so let's all re-adjust expectations on Ingram to that of a really talented, but needs some time to grow into it nature, and enjoy the ride as he matures and blossoms. He's going to be talented, and given his uniqueness, probably very special. What Ingram needs now (to reiterate) IMHO is time, growth, patience and experience. Ingram has a leg up on anyone else potentially in his position outside of the Duke program, in that he has the best coaching staff and teammates in the biz helping him work through it.
Ingram did some things that don't show up on stat sheet like disrupting the offense when he was at top of the 1-3-1.
Brandon Ingram is clearly the fulcrum of this year's Duke team. If Ingram can grow and improve as an overall player, and especially as a scorer, this team has Final Four potential. But I think Ingram will need to be able to put up a regular 15/7/3 line for that to happen. He has the talent; the coaches just need to bring out the results. Derryck Thornton looks like a point guard who will get better throughout the year and, potentially, play a leadership role in March. I'm still wary of Thornton's defense, as he appears flat-footed when involved in a pick-and-roll, but even if the defense never comes around he can still bring value as an offensive facilitator and third scoring option.
As others have mentioned, here would be my ideal starting 5:
Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson
Sixth man -- Kennard
Backup 5 -- Plumlee
4/5 Depth -- Jeter
It's not last year's 8, but that was a special bunch. Both Jones and Jefferson can play excellent defense. I can see Coach K still utilizing zone concepts to avoid foul trouble and mask the defensive deficiencies of Thornton and Allen, but that lineup can score the ball. Should be fun to watch this year's team evolve.
I think Ingram is on the verge of the light coming on. Thornton and Kennard played well against Georgetown, and so did Jeter with limited minutes. Ingram is just too talented for it to be much longer.
I see this team only getting better. Some observations:
Grayson Allen's three point shooting is off the hook right now. Just wish he'd have taken more of those against UK.
Thornton is looking more and more comfortable with each game.
Matt's shot still erratic from three point land, but I love how he leads.
Amile is never going to be a good free throw shooter. Not ever. But he does so much for this team in other areas, and we are fortunate indeed to have him.
Like the way Kennard is slowly coming around as well. Those threes are gonna start falling, and he has other skills beyond just outside shooting.
Ingram, as I said, will get there. I feel the kid came in so ballyhooed, he's forcing the issue.
Marshall is showing great inside play, and gives us strength we need.
Wondering about Obi. Read somewhere that he gave Okafor fits in practice.
Jeter appears fearless,I like his game, and his minutes will come.
This youngster dominated team will take its lumps this year, but they are very capable of giving some lumps too.
March and April could be very special this year, again!
I think you may be hitting on something here. Chances are Ingram has developed his game to this point by being accustomed to having the ball in his hands. I have very little to base this on but does seem like a reasonable guess given his obvious ability to make moves off the dribble and get into the lane. Now he is playing much more off the ball with Derryck and Grayson dictating it. This is potentially a huge mental adjustment for Brandon to make and not one to be taken lightly. But I as I said up thread, it is very early and I have no concerns. He's a baller, he'll be fine.
"Just be you. You is Enough."
Depends. I haven't been too impressed with Ingram's mobility yet. He seems slow-ish laterally and in his reaction to drives. That's a problem on the top of a 3-2 (1-2-2) zone, both in terms of rotating in the zone (the top of the zone has a TON of movement responsibilities) and in terms of preventing dribble penetration up the middle. It might work with his length, but it puts a lot on the shoulders of Ingram defensively, and I'm not sure if that's what we really want right now.
Basically, I think any zone with Ingram, Jefferson, Plumlee, and Jones has the potential to be effective, but only if Ingram is effective. If he's not effective, then you need to have him in a minimized role in a zone, like on the baseline of a 2-3.
What kind of competition did Brandon face in high school? I know he helped lead Kinston to 4 straight Class 3-A State Championships, but isn't 3-A comprised of mid-sized schools? Or at least smaller than 4-A and 3-A/4-A. A quick web check lists Kinston HS as having an enrollment around 1,200.
For reference, Luke Kennard's HS (Franklin, OH) has an enrollment of 940. And there were question marks about the level of competition he played against in HS.
Just curious, but is it possible that Brandon is having an ever bigger competitive adjustment to college ball? Maybe seeing guys with comparable size and athleticism regularly for the first time? Or at least much more frequently? I know he played well on the All-Star circuit last year, but he just doesn't look confident on the court at all right now.