Originally Posted by
Oriole Way
After watching Duke through 4 games, it's clear we have a talented, but young, team. There will be growing pains, but we have a good mix of upperclassman experience (Jefferson, Plumlee, and Jones), a potential star (Allen), and a talented freshman class with future impact players (Ingram, Thornton, Kennard, Jeter) who have taken turns struggling with different facets of the game, as well as showing glimpses of skill and potential. I like this team's chances of making the Final Four if the players can develop and stay healthy.
The most intriguing thing to me about this team at the moment is determining a starting lineup from game to game. I think we'll see changing lineups throughout the year based on matchups, hot and cold players, and (but hopefully not) injuries. I'd like to offer up a case for our best current starting lineup being one which brings Brandon Ingram off the bench as the 6th man for the next few games: Thornton/Allen/Jones/Jefferson/Plumlee.
I think one of the few takeaways from the Kentucky loss is that this Duke team is going to need a true point guard to run the show. That player is obviously Derryck Thornton, and Coach K quickly inserted Thornton into the starting lineup immediately following the first loss of the young season. The move paid off, and Duke's ceiling this year is directly tied to how quickly and effectively Thornton becomes Coach K's extension on the floor. But one of the issues with this team, which is ultimately a good thing, is that we have 6 players that all make convincing cases to be starters. Allen came off the bench against VCU and had a career game in terms of scoring. But moving forward, I feel Brandon Ingram should come off the bench for the foreseeable future.
Ingram has been horribly inefficient over 4 games. He's shooting under 40% from the field, under 30% from 3, and under 60% on free throws. Negative assist to turnover ratio. Averaging 2.5 fouls per 24 minutes which is fairly high. Allen got benched for one bad game and rebounded. But Grayson has been sensational in his other games. He rebounded with the worst performance of his career with one of his best. Ingram had a particularly poor game against Kentucky in which he has been plagued by foul trouble. But unlike Grayson, Brandon's level of performance in the other 3 games has been mediocre at best.
Some people might claim that Allen is better suited to coming off the bench. They might look at him as a scoring sparkplug 6th man. But I strongly disagree. I believe that Allen is going to be a national player of the year candidate. He puts pressure on defenses and gets opposing defenders in foul trouble because he has such a great first step off the dribble. He has a great shooting stroke, an excellent ability to drive to the rim, and a developing mid-range game. He needs to start. Right now, he's our best player.
Our upperclassmen have played extremely well and, for the moment, deserve to continue starting. Matt Jones has played exceptionally well thus far, and he's too good of a defender to send him to the bench right now or any time soon. It also helps his case that he has Coach K's total trust. Amile Jefferson is playing and rebounding too well to be benched, and both he and Marshall Plumlee fill out the traditional PF and C spots well. They are seasoned vets in great physical condition. They provide exceptional rebounding in the post and consistently solid post defense, aspects no one else on the team has provided thus far. Ingram, meanwhile, is still skinny, still getting used to the extra weight he put on this summer, and yet to fully catch up to the speed of the college game. He should be the odd man out of the starting lineup. If Thornton started out on the bench for the first 3 games of the season based on his uneven play during the preseason, and if Allen got benched for a poor game against Kentucky, then it's only logical and fair for Ingram to come off the bench for a few games to work on his issues following a poor 4 games to start the season.
Ingram is likely a few weeks or longer from getting up to speed and having the light come on for him. I'd love to see him breakout against Georgetown, but it's not an easy matchup for him or for Duke in general. Starting spots must be earned, and Ingram doesn't deserve it right now. I'll be interested to see if Coach K makes a move with him any time soon if he continues to struggle.