The best race in baseball

[JasonEvans]

Wow, it just cannot get any closer than it is right now. This is so exciting. The history books will be rewritten for this one.

I mean, Chipper versus Holliday for the batting crown. I am breathless watching it. Right now the Jones boy is at 338.613 while Matt is at 337.641. They are literally separated by 1 hit. If Holliday gets a hit in his next at bat, his average will jump to 338.709, putting him in the lead. This is so close that if Chipper goes 1-for-5 and Holliday goes 1-for-3, Holliday will be back in the lead.

Whew-- this is gonna be a nail-biter.

--Jason "ya'll didn't think I was talking about the Mets & Phils or the NL Wild Card or the Pads, Rockies, and DBacks did ya?" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

I don't have time to look them up now, but this is not the first time that a batting title could be decided by a few thousandths of a point.

However, the closest statistical race ever was an ERA title that was decided by an odd quirk in the rules. Pitcher A had thrown something like 200 1/3 innings and finished with an ERA that was fractionally better than Pitcher B, who had thrown like 200 2/3 innings (the actually innings count is fictional -- the fractions are important.

Officially, when baseball figures ERA, fractional innings are rounded off (a throwback to the pre-computer days). In this case, rounding pitcher A's innings down to 200 and rounding pitcher B's innings up to 201 reversed the statistical difference between the two -- it was that close.

As a result, pitcher B was officially awarded the ERA title, even though pitcher A actually had a lower ERA.

[EarlJam]

Wow, it just cannot get any closer than it is right now. This is so exciting. The history books will be rewritten for this one.

I mean, Chipper versus Holliday for the batting crown. I am breathless watching it. Right now the Jones boy is at 338.613 while Matt is at 337.641. They are literally separated by 1 hit. If Holliday gets a hit in his next at bat, his average will jump to 338.709, putting him in the lead. This is so close that if Chipper goes 1-for-5 and Holliday goes 1-for-3, Holliday will be back in the lead.

Whew-- this is gonna be a nail-biter.

--Jason "ya'll didn't think I was talking about the Mets & Phils or the NL Wild Card or the Pads, Rockies, and DBacks did ya?" Evans

I can't help but wonder how the Bravos would have fared if Chipper hadn't had that odd injury that caused him to miss a few weeks early in the season. With the "amazin' train wreck Mets, just a slight improvement in performance and the Braves would have won the divison.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Great season from Chipper.

I still stand by my prediction made two months ago: Indians/Cubs World Series. Cubs to win it all.

-Earljam

[throatybeard]

The Braves have really shown me something. If you told me a while back that they wouldn't be eliminated until TH of the last week, I'd have scoffed.

I'm kinda pulling for the Phillies here now, just to see how the Mets fans melt down in a scenario in which Philadelphia, Chicago, Arizona and San Diego make the playoffs and the Mets pull an epic swan dive.

[Channing]

Major League Baseball has to be praying as hard as they can for the cubs to make the playoffs. Without them, and if the Mets falter, Philly is the biggest market from the NL, with serious falloffs and very little national appeal after that

[YmoBeThere]

Not sure if Philly has much national appeal...nor the Mets or Atlanta, but maybe I am just overreacting to East Coast bias.

[Lavabe]

Wow, it just cannot get any closer than it is right now. This is so exciting. The history books will be rewritten for this one.

I mean, Chipper versus Holliday for the batting crown. I am breathless watching it. Right now the Jones boy is at 338.613 while Matt is at 337.641. They are literally separated by 1 hit. If Holliday gets a hit in his next at bat, his average will jump to 338.709, putting him in the lead. This is so close that if Chipper goes 1-for-5 and Holliday goes 1-for-3, Holliday will be back in the lead.

--Jason "ya'll didn't think I was talking about the Mets & Phils or the NL Wild Card or the Pads, Rockies, and DBacks did ya?" Evans

After Friday night's results:
Chipper Jones: 1 H in 2AB >> 172H in 507AB >> 339.250493
Matt Holliday: 2 H in 4AB >> 211H in 623AB >> 338.683788

Still a one-hit difference.

In the other race, the Phillies' magic number is one, as both the Phillies win and the Mets lose. Sort of reminds me of the '69 Cubs. Last night involved one inning when the Met pitcher, Perez, hit 3 batters... two of which were for runs.

Where were THESE Mets when they last played in Atlanta?
Cheers,
Lavabe

[throatybeard]

Major League Baseball has to be praying as hard as they can for the cubs to make the playoffs. Without them, and if the Mets falter, Philly is the biggest market from the NL, with serious falloffs and very little national appeal after that

The Cubs are in.

Philadelphia is a huge TV market.

[YmoBeThere]

There was another interesting race that was probably decided last night if you are a fan of pitching. Dan Haren gave up 1 ER over 6 and John Lackey 0 ER over 7 innings in late evening action. Lackey moved ahead of Fausto Carmona to likely win the AL ERA title at 3.01 versus 3.06 and 3.07 for Carmona and Haren respectively.

[Lavabe]

It's now Holliday over Jones:
After Saturday's results:
Chipper Jones: 1 H in 3AB >> 173H in 510AB >> 339.215686
Matt Holliday: 2 H in 4AB >> 213H in 627AB >> 339.712918
Still a one-hit difference.

As for the other race, it's a one-game season. The Phillies lost, and the Mets won. Identical records.

Today's games:
Mets (Glavine) vs. Marlins (Willis) @ Mets
Nats (Bermann) vs. Phillies (Moyer) @ Phillies
Let's have one more game tomorrow to decide it all!

Sure beats watching the NFL Falcons.
Cheers,
Lavabe

[Lavabe]

As I look back at my post from yesterday and results from yesterday, today can be a very confusing day.

The Phillies still need one win or one Mets loss to be assured of at least playing an extra game. A Mets win assures the Mets of playing another day.

The Mets need a win and a Phillies loss to take the East. The Phillies need a Phillies win and Mets loss to take the East.

If the Phillies win and the Mets win, we have an extra game for the East... in Philly. If the Phillies and Mets both lose, we have an extra game in Philly.

Now to make things VERY complicated... THE WILD CARD race:
If the Padres win today, they are the wild card. No questions.

BUT what if they lose? All you know what breaks loose!

If the Mets & Phillies lose, but the Rockies win, then it's a Padres vs. Rockies one-game playoff in Colorado.

Let's say the Mets, Phillies, and Rockies all win. The loser of the Mets vs. Phillies plays in a 3-team tournament with the Padres and Rockies. According to MLB.com:

• The loser would then enter a three-game mini-tournament for which the Rockies, based on head-to-head records during the regular season, would have the option of trying to win at home and then on the road or just once on the road to advance.

• If the Rockies choose to stay home, their opponent would be determined by the wishes of the team with the second-best combined head-to-head record; it'd be the Phillies if they're involved, but the Padres if the Mets drop into the three-way. That team could choose to play at the Rockies on Tuesday, but it's more likely that it would opt for a single game and travel to play the winner of Tuesday's game on Wednesday.

• If the Rockies opt for the one road game, Tuesday's game would feature New York at San Diego, or San Diego at Philly, with the winner hosting Colorado on Wednesday.

The rules change somewhat if only the Mets, Phillies, and Padres tie:

• The Mets and Phillies would play in Philly on Monday to crown the East champ.

• Monday's losing team would play Tuesday to decide the Wild Card. The Padres would either host the Phils, or travel to New York.

There also remains the possibility that there will be a pair of two-way ties needing to be broken, and they will be created only if the Rockies win Sunday and the Padres lose, while the Mets and Phillies both lose to end their Wild Card bids.

And you thought the BCS college football system was complicated!
Cheers,
Lavabe

[Olympic Fan]

I'm disappointed that ESPN is not doing a game -- how great would it be if they switched back and fourth between the Mets, Phillies and Padres -- with a look-in on the Braves when Chipper came to bat? Unfortunately, they are doing a day-long series of re-uns of the Contender (with the NASCAR race on the other channel).

The Braves will be on TBS, so I'll watch there to see Chipper's end of the race (especially since my only NFL option is the Browns-Ravens, ugh!)

It will be interesting to see who faces the toughest pitching -- neither the Astros, not the D-Backs have anything to play for today and could use a number of young pitchers.

One question: I know in the past, stats from special playoff games count toward regular season totals (let me clarfify -- I mean playoff games such as the Giants-Dodgers in '51; Yankees-Red Sox in '78 -- NOT the regularly scheduled division and championship series games). Have they changed that rule? If not, then Halliday could continue the batting race into a playoff game Monday or Wednesday.

As for the NL playoff race -- first key game is simply the Padres-Brewers. The Padres win, they are the wild card, period. But they knocked the Bewers out of the NL Central race Thursday and Friday, so the Brewers will be going all out to return the favor.

BTW -- How amazing was it Saturday when the Padres were one out away from clinching with future HOF reliever Trevor Hoffman on the mound and he gives up the game-tying RBI to Tony Gwynn Jr., the son of the greatest player in San Diego franchise history???

My other question -- which would now be the biggest choke job, the Mets or the Phillies? The Mets blow a 7-game lead in 15 games, falling one behind with two to play. The Phillies, after one of the great stretch runs in baseball history, take the lead with two to play ... if they blow it now, wouldn't that be almost as bad as '64???

The Mets recovery -- as temporary as it may be -- reminds me that in '51, when the Dodgers blew the huge lead to the Giants, and in 1978, when the Red Sox blew the huge lead to the Yankees, in both cases, the choking team stopped its slide at the last moment and played some heroic baseball in the final days (before, in both cases, blowing leads in the decisive playoff game).

So if history repeats, the Mets and Phillies will meet Monday toe decide the title ... the Mets will build a lead, then blow it in the ninth.

More data ... according to Peter Gammons, if there is a four-way tie for the last two playoff spots, the Rockies have the choice of having to win two games at home (Tuesday against the Mets/Phillies loser and Wednesday against the Padres) or one game on the road Wednesday (against the Mets/Phillies/Padres survivor). According to Gammons, the Rockies have already taken the one-game option.

That means that if the Padres don't clinch today, they're faced with a road game Tuesday against the Mets/Phillies loser -- they won't know which until after Monday's playoff game ... can you imagine them waiting at the Milwaukee Airport (where they are now) for the outcome of that game? And if they win Tuesday, they get on a plane and fly 3,000 miles back to San Diego for Wednesday's game!!!

Interesting decision by the Padres to go with Tomko on the mound today, instead of Peevy. The thinking is, if Tomko wins, then Peevy is ready for the first (and a potential fifth) game of the first round. If Tomko loses, then you use Peevy in Monday (if the Mets-Phillies split or both lose today and only the Rockies tie for the wildcard) or for Tuesday's playoff game.

I think the decisive factor is that if Peevy went today, it would be on short rest and that's tough to do going into the playoffs. And it doesn't matter whether he goes today, Monday or Tuesday -- in any case, he'd still only be able to go once in the division playoffs.

But what happens if there is a four-way tie? Sure, the Padres can use Peevy Tuesday against the Mets-Phillies loser, but then they have to come back with Young or Maddox Wednesday against the red-hot Rockies.

The possibilities are endless. Okay, here are a few scenario's:

-- 4-way tie: Mets at Phillies Monday, winner wins the East, loser joins in the wild-card playoff. Padres play at the Mets-Phillies loser Tuesday; the winner of that game at Colorado on Wednesday.
-- Mets-Phillies both lose Sunday, while the Padres lose and the Rockies win. That sets up TWO playoff games Monday -- Mets at Phillies for the East (with the loser OUT); Padres at Rockies for the wild card.
-- Mets-Phillies both win Sunday, while the Padres and Rockies lose: That sets up Mets at Phillies Monday with the loser playing the Padres at home Tuesday.
-- Mets-Phillies split (one wins, one loses) and the Padres wins -- no extra playoff games, period.
-- The Padres win and the Mets-Phillies either both win or both lose -- just the Mets at Phillies Monday for the East. Padres clinch the wild card.

One final note: The Red Sox did the Yankees a big favor when they clinched the best record in the AL and the choice of the playoff formats. They picked the one with the off-day in the middle. That means that the Yankees-Indians will play five straight days, meaning that it's very unlikely that the Yankees will face the Indians two stud pitches twice.

As a Yankee fan, let me say thanks Red Sox.

[mapei]

I have a feeling I am throwing myself to the wolves here, but is anyone besides me bothered by the amount of whining, arguing, fighting, and DELIBERATELY TRYING TO HIT PEOPLE WITH 90-MPH BASEBALLS in the game? For someone who isn't a regular fan, it just looks terrible. Is this stuff just accepted as "part of the game"? It sure seems like the penalties are minor and that fans either don't care or actually like it, as seems to be the case with hockey.

[YmoBeThere]

Another analogy would be saying NASCAR fans are there for the wrecks. I am not sure what games you are talking about, as I haven't noticed much more than normal throwing at people this year. Besides, if a pitcher wants to hit someone, they generally have good enough control that by taking a few MPH off the pitch they can hit them.

Perhaps by knowing which teams you are talking about it would help us identify the source of the issues. Being in New England now, I mainly get to see Red Sox games. In August, David Ortiz hit a long home run off Jared Weaver and took a little too long admiring his handiwork and getting around the base paths. Weaver stared at him the entire trip around. Will I be surprised if Weaver plunks him the next time they meet? Yes, because it will be in the playoffs this season where every baserunner matters. However, if the situation is relatively meaningless or comes next year during the regular season, I won't be surprised at all.

[throatybeard]

Glavine got roughed up and the Mets trail 8-1.

Philadelphia is up 3-1.

Last Braves telecast on TBS. It's lasted my entire life thus far.

[JasonEvans]

Chipper is 0-for-2 today with a walk. Holliday walked in his first at-bat. They are in the 6th so Chipper likely only gets one more at-bat. He MUST get a hit or it is all done for him vs. Holliday. If Holliday is leading and the Padres game goes final (Pads leading by 2 in the 6th) then I expect Colorado to take Holliday out so they make certain that he wins the batting crown.

--Jason "bummed that we are likely not gonna have a crazy 3-way tie for the wild card" Evans

[throatybeard]

Biggio was misty-eyed in his last at-bat.

When I was a kid, my parents worked Braves concessions to earn money for our school. I saw Biggio his rookie year. He, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz have spanned my entire baseball life.

[YmoBeThere]

San Fran took Randy Winn out after he got a hit in his first AB. He will officially end the season batting 0.300

[wilson]

San Fran took Randy Winn out after he got a hit in his first AB. He will officially end the season batting 0.300

Interesting, but not as cool as the belabored opposite-field doinker that John Kruk served up in his final major league at-bat to finish at .300 for his career.

[YmoBeThere]

Interesting, I didn't know that about Kruk...

Philly in, Mets out. Everything set for the playoffs.