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  1. #1

    I was just wondering

    For some time now I have wanted to get this off of my chest. Why is it that UNC is favored so much for the upcoming season. They did not get anyone, and they lost some valuable pieces including Terry, which I think is a bigger loss than anyone realizes. I understand we lost Mcroberts and so the polls are a little afraid to rank us higher in pre-season. But the reality is we got three more top notch players to replace someone who I think we could all say gave less than an all star performance over his 2 years. I am not trying to underestimate the talent of Hansbourgh (spelling? even though I dont really care) and the point guard ( I can not think of his name right now). I just do not see those 2 taking it all the way, and I know they have Ellington but he did not show much last year, and you know that if Hansboro? (ha ha ) does not get the ball every possession he will have a fit, which I still think was a problem with them last year with Wright stealing some of Tyler's thunder. Just let me know what you think. Sorry about the spelling of TH but I am not going to check on their site just to figure out how to spell it. Also sorry about the run on sentences

  2. #2
    Sure, we gain more than they do... but they had more to begin with. They were a Final Four calibur team last year, and we were an NCAA tourney team last year. Their losses and our gains should narrow that gap a lot... but the gap's still there. They're much more than a two man team.

  3. #3
    My biggest worry is that the reduction of their depth will lead to a smoother on court performance. Fewer players for Roy Boy to keep happy and sets of players more in sync with one another.

    I did not see every game they played, but Terry seemed to have some spectacular plays but also to disappear in the ones I did see. But he also seemed an underrated defensive player and I wonder if his absence will leave them more vulnerable on the defensive court to super athletic types?

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by sandinmyshoes View Post
    My biggest worry is that the reduction of their depth will lead to a smoother on court performance. Fewer players for Roy Boy to keep happy and sets of players more in sync with one another.

    I did not see every game they played, but Terry seemed to have some spectacular plays but also to disappear in the ones I did see. But he also seemed an underrated defensive player and I wonder if his absence will leave them more vulnerable on the defensive court to super athletic types?
    I think "reduction of their depth" is part of the expected improvement, while the other part is that everyone is a year old older.

    In particular, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, Deon Thompson, and Alex Stephenson are now sophomores and typically its the first offseason that allows the biggest improvement for college players.

    Of course the same can be said about Scheyer, Henderson, Thomas, and Zoubek.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Do like I do and just call him Hasbro... like the children's toy maker.

    As for why Carolina is so highly regarded, they have an established PG in Lawson who will someday be a first round NBA draft pick and they have probably the best big man in the nation in Hasbro. PG and post are the two most important positions on the floor. Thier PG is top-5 in the nation and their post is #1. They have pretty highly regarded talent surrounding those two too.

    --Jason "but, yes, the gap between us would seem to be narrowed, perhaps by more than Carolina would like to think" Evans

  6. #6
    I think the reason that people are talking about the Heels is because they're going to have a great squad this season.

    That said, I agree they will miss the component that Terry gave them. He was their best shooter and one of their better slashers. Ellington, despite his reputation, was only a good shooter last year, not a great shooter. He's a second option on offense and should see a number of open looks because of the attention that Hansbrough demands so he should be shooting over 40%. He didn't last year but will he this year?

    But beyond that, the Heels have a lot of resources on hand. I expect Stepheson & Thompson to make strong strides this year with increased PT and Danny Green has been under-utilized and can help make up for the loss of Terry. All these guys are going to have lots of opportunities because Hansbrough can open things up for them and Lawson can break down a defense.

    Offsetting all of that though is that they wear sissy blue uniforms.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lompoc, West Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by Carlos View Post

    Offsetting all of that though is that they wear sissy blue uniforms.
    You don't suppose Ol' Roy is related to Coach Gundy?

  8. #8

    I understand

    I understand what you guys are saying, but they have had all of the tools the last 2 years, and now they have less players. I for one don't buy them. I really do believe we will be a lot better than most people think. I have a feeling that this Duke team will do a lot of running, and I fully expect at least a split with Carolina. As for the rest of the ACC, if Duke stays focused they will do very well. As a side note I just looked up some prices for season tickets at Cameron, and that is unreal. I have been an avid fan for 22 years and have yet to step into Cameron. I live in Winston Salem, and when I was in High School I used to go and play with the Wake Forest band just So I could watch Duke. One day though I will save up enough money to see one game in Cameron, even if it against some community college.

    Go Duke

  9. #9
    Since it's on topic, I just posted a quick article on what each ACC team is returning in terms of scoring and rebounding.

    Duke is 2nd and UNC 5th in terms of % of returning scoring.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by riverside6 View Post
    Since it's on topic, I just posted a quick article on what each ACC team is returning in terms of scoring and rebounding.

    Duke is 2nd and UNC 5th in terms of % of returning scoring.
    Percentage skew things. A team that scored 50 PPG and snagged 10 rebounds that has 100% returning is still not very good.

    Why not use actuals points returning and actual rebounds returning?

  11. #11
    Yeah, but tempo skews that though. I was trying to put a value to who returned the most of their 2006-7 production.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by riverside6 View Post
    Yeah, but tempo skews that though. I was trying to put a value to who returned the most of their 2006-7 production.
    I think I started a similar thread a month or so ago that had rankings based on returning points, rebounds and a few other metrics. Rather than retrieve it though, I just cross-multiplied on your results, and sorted on all three:

    CY (current year points returning):
    Percent (same as what your site shows graphically) and
    LY (Last year's average points scored all games - not ACC only since former was more readily available)

    LY Pct CY
    71.7 86.7% 62.2 NCS
    73.2 81.5% 59.7 CL
    85.7 68.5% 58.7 UNC
    70.4 81.3% 57.2 DU
    77.0 67.0% 51.6 UVA
    71.2 70.4% 50.1 UM
    74.5 66.6% 49.6 FSU
    78.6 57.9% 45.5 GAT
    73.8 58.5% 43.2 WF
    79.0 47.9% 37.8 MD
    74.3 43.6% 32.4 BC
    71.5 39.9% 28.5 VAT

    LY Pct CY
    71.7 86.7% 62.2 NCS
    73.2 81.5% 59.7 CL
    70.4 81.3% 57.2 DU
    71.2 70.4% 50.1 UM
    85.7 68.5% 58.7 UNC
    77.0 67.0% 51.6 UVA
    74.5 66.6% 49.6 FSU
    73.8 58.5% 43.2 WF
    78.6 57.9% 45.5 GAT
    79.0 47.9% 37.8 MD
    74.3 43.6% 32.4 BC
    71.5 39.9% 28.5 VAT

    LY Pct CY
    85.7 68.5% 58.7 UNC
    79.0 47.9% 37.8 MD
    78.6 57.9% 45.5 GAT
    77.0 67.0% 51.6 UVA
    74.5 66.6% 49.6 FSU
    74.3 43.6% 32.4 BC
    73.8 58.5% 43.2 WF
    73.2 81.5% 59.7 CL
    71.7 86.7% 62.2 NCS
    71.5 39.9% 28.5 VAT
    71.2 70.4% 50.1 UM
    70.4 81.3% 57.2 DU

    Next I tried something that I am not sure makes sense but results came out pretty close to what I expect will the ACC finish this year- combining rank order of last year's ACC placement, CY percent scoring returning and CY raw Scoring returning.

    Rnk ACC CY Pct
    30 -12 -10 -08 UNC
    27 -05 -11 -11 CL
    27 -03 -12 -12 NCS
    26 -07 -09 -10 DU
    26 -11 -08 -07 UVA
    17 -01 -07 -09 UM
    16 -10 -03 -03 MD
    16 -04 -06 -06 FSU
    15 -06 -05 -04 GAT
    12 -08 -02 -02 BC
    11 -09 -01 -01 VAT
    11 -02 -04 -05 WF

    UNC ranks ahead of the rest of ACC

    Four way battle for 2-5 among CL, NCS, DU and UVA (who I do not think will compete with other 3)

    For way battle for 6-9 among Miami, MD, FSU and GA Tech (UVA may belong in this group)

    Three way battle among BC, VAT and Wake for bottom honors.

    With respect to NCAAs, I see UNC-Duke-NC ST-Clemson pretty solid with GA T- UVA on inside of bubble and Miami-FSU-MD trying to get inside the bubble.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    You da man with stats, ACC. Well done.

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