FB: Duke 9, Boston College 7

[loran16]

Duke opens as a 6.5 point favorite per Vegas.

Should be a fascinating game. BC is similar-ish to Northwestern in profile, all Defense no offense - per Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings, they rank the following:

32nd Overall
121st in Offense
2nd in defense

(For Comparison, NW was 105th in O, 10th on D)

Duke by those same rankings is:
19th Overall
83rd on Offense
7th on Defense

So expect a low scoring game - special teams may be pretty big here. More in depth statistical measures will be available tomorrow.

[uh_no]

we'll see how good their defense actually is.

they gave up 3 to a 1-2 maine team who got wallopped by tulane 38-7
they beat an 0-4 howard team 76-0
they DID hold FSU to 14
but they then gave up 14 to NIU...who is actually deceent, they onlly lost by 7 to OSU

so it appears in the early going the defense is legit.

Their offense, though, is decidedly NOT legit. Their starting QB is out for the year, and they ran the ball 63 times last week (3.7ypc). Given what duke just did to GT, i imagine that number will shrink.

What does a duke win look like:
We destroy them in special teams, maybe pick up a big return and a few field goals and a TD. THey can't get anything going and punting keeps them on their own half the field all day.

What a BC win looks like:
Our surprisingly turnover prone team has more in the wrong place on the field. BC picks up some chippy points on short drives and duke can never get it close.


Basically: be patient and win the turnover battle.

[loran16]

So F/+ the combined statistical measure of Football Outsiders is out, as is the advanced statistics profile of each team of Football Study Hall.

You can find Duke here: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pag...stical-profile and BC here: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pag...stical-profile

Per these metrics, Duke is a 69% favorite to win against BC, with a projected score of 20.1-11.3.

[Indoor66]

So F/+ the combined statistical measure of Football Outsiders is out, as is the advanced statistics profile of each team of Football Study Hall.

You can find Duke here: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pag...stical-profile and BC here: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pag...stical-profile

Per these metrics, Duke is a 69% favorite to win against BC, with a projected score of 20.1-11.3.

Per that info, why play the game? Clearly it is settled science.

[loran16]

Per that info, why play the game? Clearly it is settled science.

69 percent means we still lose 3 out of 10 times!

[uh_no]

69 percent means we still lose 3 out of 10 times!

well...3.1/10

[devildeac]

I'd be ecstatic with a 20-10 Duke win. Shoot, I'd be happy with a 7-3 Duke victory, considering f$u only scored 14 against BC.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Weather conditions may be similar to this past Saturday. Rain will be continuing throughout the week making for a wet field. Most forecasts are calling for as much as 80% chance of rain Saturday. While I don't like sitting in the rain, Duke plays well in it!

[loran16]

Weather conditions may be similar to this past Saturday. Rain will be continuing throughout the week making for a wet field. Most forecasts are calling for as much as 80% chance of rain Saturday. While I don't like sitting in the rain, Duke plays well in it!

Welp, this game could be even uglier. Good times!

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Weather conditions may be similar to this past Saturday. Rain will be continuing throughout the week making for a wet field. Most forecasts are calling for as much as 80% chance of rain Saturday. While I don't like sitting in the rain, Duke plays well in it!

This is still a little early. I want to be hopeful that the forecasts improve.

[jjasper0729]

@stevewisemanNC
Stephen Wiseman retweeted BC Interruption
Will play at Duke Saturday without QB (out for year) and now top RB (out for year)

BC Interruption

[S_West30]

-While BC certainly hasn't had a rigorous schedule to start the season, their defense should be taken seriously. Their first two games were cupcakes against Maine and perennially woeful Howard, but the level of competition has stepped up these past two weeks as they played No. 9 Florida State and a sneaky good Northern Illinois team that tied Ohio State at halftime in a game earlier this season (they did eventually lose obviously). All that being said, they lead all Division 1-A teams in total yards given up with 472, which for reference is 267 fewer yards than the number 2 team in Appalachian State. Almost half of those were given up in their 14-0 loss to Florida State in week 3, which must be noted is quite impressive to limit both speedy Dalvin Cook and dual-threat quarterback Everett Golson to under 250 yards combined.
-I'd love to see Sirk get back on track in the passing game, but again, the statistics say that this isn't his week to do so. BC also leads the country in both passing and rushing yards given up per game with 72 passing and 46 rushing respectively. Duke is going to have to grind this one out if they want a win. I look for very few points to be scored and for there to be either a defensive or special teams touchdown.
-As long as DeVon Edwards is in the backfield returning kicks Duke will have the upper hand in the return game. The less yardage needed to get into field goal range and/or the red zone for Duke will be the key to scoring points against their stingy defense.
-For defensive players not named Jeremy Cash, I look for highly touted freshman linebacker Ben Humphreys and hard-hitting junior safety Deondre Singleton to step up and make big plays when it matters most just like they did last week against Tech. Humphreys has been a great run stopper through these first four games, and while Singleton is often overshadowed by Cash, he has quietly been a great coverage safety and has repeatedly broken up long passes that would've gone for huge gains.
-This will not be a pretty game by any stretch of the imagination, especially with the weather forecast for Saturday. But if Sirk can limit his turnovers and not become completely inept in the second half like he has these past couple weeks, I think they can come out of this "trap game" still unscathed in conference play.

Go Blue Devils!

[Bob Green]

Tropical Storm Joaquin is expected to turn into Hurricane Joaquin sometime today. It appears the dangerous winds will remain off the coast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...gif/084150.gif

More info is available here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[-jk]

Duke is offering a new game: Tropical Roulette with BC ticket prices!

Tropical Storm Joaquin may or may not land over Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium on 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, but that is not going to stop Duke fans from having some fun the next three days. Introducing Tropical Roulette, where the forecast will determine your general admission ticket price for Duke Football vs. Boston College.

This could be fun!

-jk

[devildeac]

Duke is offering a new game: Tropical Roulette with BC ticket prices!



This could be fun!

-jk

That's awesome but I'm gonna call shenanigans on this one. They're basing it on the Duke Athletics forecast. Right now, Weather Channel has a 100% chance of rain for Friday and Saturday. Yea, yea, yea, I know it changes hourly. Against GT, we had hourly forecasts of 6%/0%/0%/30% for noon/1/2/3 PM that afternoon. There was non-stop light to moderate rain until just after 3 PM that day. It was still (mostly) fun but my jeans and waterproof jacket are still drying out in my garage.

It'd be even more interesting if the discount matched the actual prediction, but then they might be giving tickets away. (Wait, I've read that idea somewhere before.)

Now, if only they sold beer...

[OldPhiKap]

That's awesome but I'm gonna call shenanigans on this one. They're basing it on the Duke Athletics forecast. Right now, Weather Channel has a 100% chance of rain for Friday and Saturday. Yea, yea, yea, I know it changes hourly. Against GT, we had hourly forecasts of 6%/0%/0%/30% for noon/1/2/3 PM that afternoon. There was non-stop light to moderate rain until just after 3 PM that day. It was still (mostly) fun but my jeans and waterproof jacket are still drying out in my garage.

It'd be even more interesting if the discount matched the actual prediction, but then they might be giving tickets away. (Wait, I've read that idea somewhere before.)

Now, if only they sold beer...

"whatever it takes"

I don't know how to solve the attendance issue (although craft beer -- even a larger producer like Sierra Nevada -- would help tremendously). But glad they are trying.

[duke blue brewcrew]

That's awesome but I'm gonna call shenanigans on this one. They're basing it on the Duke Athletics forecast. Right now, Weather Channel has a 100% chance of rain for Friday and Saturday. Yea, yea, yea, I know it changes hourly. Against GT, we had hourly forecasts of 6%/0%/0%/30% for noon/1/2/3 PM that afternoon. There was non-stop light to moderate rain until just after 3 PM that day. It was still (mostly) fun but my jeans and waterproof jacket are still drying out in my garage.

It'd be even more interesting if the discount matched the actual prediction, but then they might be giving tickets away. (Wait, I've read that idea somewhere before.)

Now, if only they sold beer...

And what would the Devildeac Wally Wade beer menu look like?

[uh_no]

And what would the Devildeac Wally Wade beer menu look like?

lonerider sweet josie
fullsteam bourbon barrel aged working man's lunch
foothils hoppyum
triangle belgian golden ale
deep river 4042
white street scottish
weihenstephaner hefeweissen
not your father's rootbeer

[devildeac]

And what would the Devildeac Wally Wade beer menu look like?

lonerider sweet josie
fullsteam bourbon barrel aged working man's lunch
foothils hoppyum
triangle belgian golden ale
deep river 4042
white street scottish
weihenstephaner hefeweissen
not your father's rootbeer

Very good list but I'd probably keep it all local and invite every Triangle brewer (? 30-35 now, might be more) to send a "keg" or two of their choice to our mythical "Duke Beer Garden". Heck, invite every NC brewer (might be up to around 120 now) to the show and the first 25-30 responders got their beer featured at WW home games.

Alas, I think they'll be another smallish crowd at WW this Saturday due to the forecast. Hopefully, they'll be treated to a 10-3 Duke victory (or something like that).

[tux]

"whatever it takes"

I don't know how to solve the attendance issue (although craft beer -- even a larger producer like Sierra Nevada -- would help tremendously). But glad they are trying.

Not that we need more discussion on attendance, but in watching some highlights of last weekend's UNCheat game, I would say Duke attendance-wise did much better than the Holes. Attendance is down everywhere, and the rain hurts. But I thought the soggy crowd in WW looked about like what it would have 5 years ago in nice weather --- and the crowd (and students) were loud and into the game. Of course, I would love for Duke to fill every seat, but Duke is trending in the right direction, just slowly...