2018 Basketball Recruiting Thread

[JasonEvans]

Interesting development on Hamilton ... within the last 48 hours, Hamilton has gone from being a near UNC lock to a near NC State lock.

The reaction on Inside Carolina is priceless: The take there is that Roy backed off because Hamilton had a terrible summer and because he wants to save the scholarship or Zion Williamson.

Of course, these are the same people who argue that Roy doesn't want one-and-done type players.

Ha! Roy "backed off because Hamilton had a terrible summer" only makes sense once the summer has actually happened. The vast majority of the important AAU tournaments and showcases haven't even happened yet.

If Kevin Keats beats the Tar Heels for a highly coveted in state recruit, is it too early for the Wolfpack to give him an extension? He be a major hero for pulling off a stunt like that.

Jason "it is early, but Keats sure feels like a good hire" Evans

[Troublemaker]

Should the staff stop recruiting him now after 2 years? as he is now in one and done range?

No but maybe offer a 4* guard too for stability in the future and also so landing OAD replacement guard isn't imperative. Might be a good idea to work in some regular PT for him too. It doesn't have to be all one way or the other . I can only speak for me but I can easily lose interest and save the Slng cost during hoops season if its going to be minor league pro ball in duke uniforms. I'm sure there will plenty other watching so it's only my discretionary time in play.

I know NSDuke was kidding, but we should have it covered if we land both Tre Jones and Garland, which we're favorites to do. I'd be surprised if both are OAD since they're small, and I wouldn't be that surprised if both have sophomore seasons at Duke. (That said, I'd be very surprised if either is a 4-year player).

[Troublemaker]

Oh, and I realize they are top-10 prospects, but 2018 is a weird class. Top-10 players would be top-25 players in other classes. Just as an example, I don't think either Tre or Darius is better than Quade Green, who is ranked 25-ish in 2017.

There do exist top-5 prospects in 2018 that are obviously OAD. Guys like Marvin Bagley or Bol Bol, but I think Jones and Garland are not typical OAD prospects despite their top-10 rankings.

[budwom]

Oh, and I realize they are top-10 prospects, but 2018 is a weird class. Top-10 players would be top-25 players in other classes. Just as an example, I don't think either Tre or Darius is better than Quade Green, who is ranked 25-ish in 2017.

There do exist top-5 prospects in 2018 that are obviously OAD. Guys like Marvin Bagley or Bol Bol, but I think Jones and Garland are not typical OAD prospects despite their top-10 rankings.

I haven't seen a ton of either, but I do feel Jones is better than Quade Green.

[BD80]

Oh, and I realize they are top-10 prospects, but 2018 is a weird class. Top-10 players would be top-25 players in other classes. Just as an example, I don't think either Tre or Darius is better than Quade Green, who is ranked 25-ish in 2017.

There do exist top-5 prospects in 2018 that are obviously OAD. Guys like Marvin Bagley or Bol Bol, but I think Jones and Garland are not typical OAD prospects despite their top-10 rankings.

In a sense, it cuts both ways.

A weak recruiting class yields a weak draft class the following year. Thus, there is still potential for top-10 recruits to be one-and-done, even if they do not measure up to other top-10 recruits in other classes.

[NSDukeFan]

Should the staff stop recruiting him now after 2 years? as he is now in one and done range?

No but maybe offer a 4* guard too for stability in the future and also so landing OAD replacement guard isn't imperative. Might be a good idea to work in some regular PT for him too. It doesn't have to be all one way or the other . I can only speak for me but I can easily lose interest and save the Slng cost during hoops season if its going to be minor league pro ball in duke uniforms. I'm sure there will plenty other watching so it's only my discretionary time in play.

I know NSDuke was kidding, but we should have it covered if we land both Tre Jones and Garland, which we're favorites to do. I'd be surprised if both are OAD since they're small, and I wouldn't be that surprised if both have sophomore seasons at Duke. (That said, I'd be very surprised if either is a 4-year player).

You're right, I was kidding and I agree with lotusland that a balance between OADs and fourish year players would be ideal. I just think that it's too hard several years out to predict which 16 year olds are going to end up as the 15th to 55th ranked 18 year olds and be willing to wait their turn to improve and be solid upperclassmen, and be solid academically and good representatives of Duke. Maybe the staff has done that and maybe needs to give more players minutes. But does that hurt the top players' chances of getting reps together, learning how to win, especially if many are only at Duke for a year or two. I would have loved to have seen Murphy, Czyz, Gbinijie, Jeter, etc. as upperclassmen and would have loved to have seen a deeper bench each year. But would the teams have been as successful? I don't know the answers but feel the coaching staff does a great job in challenging circumstances.

[Olympic Fan]

Duke recently offered Cole Swider, a 6-8, 210-pounder from Barrington, RI

He's regarded as a very good shooter, but he's not a very highly rated player. I think Scout lists him as a four-star guy, around No. 60-70 nationally. He's a three-star on 247 and not in their to 100.

So for those of you who don't like OADs, he sound like at least a 3-4 year guy.

[budwom]

Duke recently offered Cole Swider, a 6-8, 210-pounder from Barrington, RI

He's regarded as a very good shooter, but he's not a very highly rated player. I think Scout lists him as a four-star guy, around No. 60-70 nationally. He's a three-star on 247 and not in their to 100.

So for those of you who don't like OADs, he sound like at least a 3-4 year guy.

I would assess kids by looking at their offers (assessment by real coaches) vs the ratings of internet sites any day of the week. Swider has offers from Villanova, Indiana, Michigan, Syracuse and Texas among many others.

[ncexnyc]

Duke recently offered Cole Swider, a 6-8, 210-pounder from Barrington, RI

He's regarded as a very good shooter, but he's not a very highly rated player. I think Scout lists him as a four-star guy, around No. 60-70 nationally. He's a three-star on 247 and not in their to 100.

So for those of you who don't like OADs, he sound like at least a 3-4 year guy.

But then the question becomes, a 3-4 year guy for who?

[Indoor66]

But then the question becomes, a 3-4 year guy for who?

What does this mean? ↑↑↑↑

[Rich]

But then the question becomes, a 3-4 year guy for who?

What does this mean? ↑↑↑↑

I think the poster is suggesting the player would transfer out of the Duke system in order to get more playing time elsewhere a la Chase Jeter.

[MChambers]

In a sense, it cuts both ways.

A weak recruiting class yields a weak draft class the following year. Thus, there is still potential for top-10 recruits to be one-and-done, even if they do not measure up to other top-10 recruits in other classes.

I was thinking this. Also, kids who are highly ranked in a high school class are likely to think of themselves as OAD talent.

[Olympic Fan]

I was thinking this. Also, kids who are highly ranked in a high school class are likely to think of themselves as OAD talent.

This is a valid point. A lot of kids are delusional.

Remember, Michael Gbinije once gave in an interview where he claimed that one of the major reasons that he left Duke was that he thought he was a one-and-done talent and that Coach K held him back. He was the No. 28 player in the draft. After sitting out a year at Syracuse, he averaged 3.4 points a year. Finally, as a fifth year senior, he broke out and became a top player. He ended up being drafted No. 49 in the second round. As a rookie, he spent almost his entire season in the NBDL. He played all of nine games for Detroit.

I don't go into this to trash Gbinije, only to point out how delusional many kids are.

The trick in recruiting is to avoid kids with this mindset. But I don't know how you do that.

[ncexnyc]

I think the poster is suggesting the player would transfer out of the Duke system in order to get more playing time elsewhere a la Chase Jeter.

Give the man a cigar!

We find the team in this very strange position that we've never experienced before. By going the OAD route Coach K. has been forced to change his recruiting style and he now finds himself looking for kids who project as long term players. Unfortunately, we then face the Catch-22 of kids who will find themselves recruited over year after year and will more than likely never see the court for any meaningful time. Is that going to sit well with today's kids? i've stated before on other threads, I don't think so and some of you have disagreed.

I'm not a big fan of OAD, but that's the nature of today's game. We're probably best going the UK route and buying all in on OAD's and hope we can reload year after year.

[Olympic Fan]

I had an NC State fan point out something that's interesting -- our cheating neighbors have just one scholarship left in the 2018 class.

Looking ahead to the 2018-19 season, their roster will include:

seniors Cameron Johnson, Luke Maye and Kenny Williams
juniors Brandon Robinson and Seventh Woods
sophomores Jalek Felton, Garrett Brooks, Brandon Huffman, Stanley Manley and Andrew Platek

Barring transfers or NBA early entries (unlikely in that bunch), that's 10 players.

Roy already has confirmed commitments from four-star Coby White (a 6-4 wing guard, ranked No. 30 in the class by Scout) and four-star Rechon Black (a 6-7 small forward ranked No. 84 by scout)

That leaves just one more spot.

And, the other interesting thing, is that unless Roy lands a five star with that pick, he'll have just one five-star on the 2018-19 roster (Felton)

[Troublemaker]

In a sense, it cuts both ways.

A weak recruiting class yields a weak draft class the following year. Thus, there is still potential for top-10 recruits to be one-and-done, even if they do not measure up to other top-10 recruits in other classes.

I was thinking this. Also, kids who are highly ranked in a high school class are likely to think of themselves as OAD talent.

Good points. There will still be 30 first-round draft picks and 30 second-round draft picks in the NBA draft even if the 2018 recruiting class is weak. So, there will be some first-rounders who would usually be second-rounders in other, deeper draft classes.

BUT, every player will benefit from that dynamic, not just the nominally top-10 player in 2018 who would be a top-25 player in other classes.

The non-OADs from the 2017 class (i.e. college sophomores) will benefit.

The early entry players from the 2016 class (i.e. college juniors) will benefit.

The non-early entry players from the 2015 class (i.e. college seniors) will benefit.

Foreign players will benefit.

In the end, I would expect an unusual number of players ranked between 5 and 20 to return to school for their sophomore seasons from this high school class.

[English]

I had an NC State fan point out something that's interesting -- our cheating neighbors have just one scholarship left in the 2018 class.

Looking ahead to the 2018-19 season, their roster will include:

seniors Cameron Johnson, Luke Maye and Kenny Williams
juniors Brandon Robinson and Seventh Woods
sophomores Jalek Felton, Garrett Brooks, Brandon Huffman, Stanley Manley and Andrew Platek

Barring transfers or NBA early entries (unlikely in that bunch), that's 10 players.

Roy already has confirmed commitments from four-star Coby White (a 6-4 wing guard, ranked No. 30 in the class by Scout) and four-star Rechon Black (a 6-7 small forward ranked No. 84 by scout)

That leaves just one more spot.

And, the other interesting thing, is that unless Roy lands a five star with that pick, he'll have just one five-star on the 2018-19 roster (Felton)

This is a fun post.

I just wanted to take a quick moment to point out that this would be an immensely entertaining name of an unx athlete for the Crazies to hammer at over a presumed four-year career. Sadly, the bro's name is Sterling Manley*. Maybe Stanley Manley is his younger 3-star brother whom Roy is recruiting to keep this dream alive.


*I had to Google it.

[gam7]

Oh, and I realize they are top-10 prospects, but 2018 is a weird class. Top-10 players would be top-25 players in other classes. Just as an example, I don't think either Tre or Darius is better than Quade Green, who is ranked 25-ish in 2017.

My initial feeling was that I agree with you, but it's not really fair to compare 2017 Quade Green with 2017 Tre and Darius. Obviously Quade is one class ahead, but Quade (May 1998) is also about 1 year and 8 months older than both of them (both January 2000). The fairer comparison would be to Quade Green last year at this time (when Quade was tearing up the EYBL (much like Tre did this year). I still am inclined to agree with you, but Quade may be a pretty good comparison for where Tre'Darius Jorland are.

[Troublemaker]

My initial feeling was that I agree with you, but it's not really fair to compare 2017 Quade Green with 2017 Tre and Darius. Obviously Quade is one class ahead, but Quade (May 1998) is also about 1 year and 8 months older than both of them (both January 2000). The fairer comparison would be to Quade Green last year at this time (when Quade was tearing up the EYBL (much like Tre did this year). I still am inclined to agree with you, but Quade may be a pretty good comparison for where Tre'Darius Jorland are.

Oh, I agree with you. That's what I was thinking about actually -- how Quade dominated EYBL before his senior season, similar to Tre. Except, I think I like Quade slightly better than Tre (putting aside emotional attachment to the Stones family) because Quade can shoot. That said, we will see if Tre can make any progress on his 3-pt shot his senior year in high school; it's really the only thing holding him back from being a complete PG.

With that said, let me point out that ironically, from the standpoint of the college program and the program's fans, the 2018 rankings might actually be the MOST accurate of all the class rankings. Because if we can get, say, 2 years out of Tre and 2-3 years out of Garland (who is really small), that is arguably better than 1 season from physically superior, lotto talents like De'Aaron Fox, Lonzo Ball, Collin Sexton, and Trevon Duval.

High school recruiting rankings are created in terms of NBA potential when, imo, they should be created in terms of college impact.

[DukeTrinity11]

Oh, I agree with you. That's what I was thinking about actually -- how Quade dominated EYBL before his senior season, similar to Tre. Except, I think I like Quade slightly better than Tre (putting aside emotional attachment to the Stones family) because Quade can shoot. That said, we will see if Tre can make any progress on his 3-pt shot his senior year in high school; it's really the only thing holding him back from being a complete PG.

With that said, let me point out that ironically, from the standpoint of the college program and the program's fans, the 2018 rankings might actually be the MOST accurate of all the class rankings. Because if we can get, say, 2 years out of Tre and 2-3 years out of Garland (who is really small), that is arguably better than 1 season from physically superior, lotto talents like De'Aaron Fox, Lonzo Ball, Collin Sexton, and Trevon Duval.

High school recruiting rankings are created in terms of NBA potential when, imo, they should be created in terms of college impact.

I don't follow your line of reasoning here. High school recruiting rankings are most definitely created to measure immediate college impact and are based on current skill level and not potential down the line.

Tre isn't expected to be as good as Fox, Ball, Sexton or Duval but he's the #1 PG in his class according to Scout since there are no truly elite PG prospects in the HS Class of 2018. Fox, Ball, Fultz, Jackson and perhaps even Andrew Jones would all be ranked ahead of Tre if they were graduating in 2018.

Case in point, Tyus Jones was rightfully ranked as the #1 PG in the HS Class of 2014 despite the fact that no one thought that there was any chance that he could become OAD. Same with Tyler Ulis and Joel Berry in fact which is what makes these top PGs, who don't have NBA level athleticism or size, more ideal since they're often forced to stay in college longer.