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  1. #2781
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Maybe, except Tyler Thornton says hello.

    And if your definition of rotation includes the 8th man whether or not he plays a lot of minutes, Nick Horvath, Matt Christensen, and Reggie Love say hi too.



    It may be semantic, since I don't know exactly what you mean by "strict 7-man rotation," but in the 19 years of the RSCI era, our 8th man has topped 10 mpg only six times. So it seems to me that we "typically" do play a 7-man rotation, and since (of the 8th men with 10+ mpg) only O'Connell's recruiting rank was anywhere close to Baker's, I'm sticking with my position that history says none of Baker, White, Vrankovic, or Goldwire is likely to top 10 mpg.

    Obviously Baker could follow AOC's footsteps, but I don't think one exception suggests a new rule.
    Lee Melchionni, Nick Horvath, Matt Christensen. Guys ranked outside the top-100 can earn PT at Duke.

  2. #2782
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Maybe, except Tyler Thornton says hello.

    And if your definition of rotation includes the 8th man whether or not he plays a lot of minutes, Nick Horvath, Matt Christensen, and Reggie Love say hi too.



    It may be semantic, since I don't know exactly what you mean by "strict 7-man rotation," but in the 19 years of the RSCI era, our 8th man has topped 10 mpg only six times. So it seems to me that we "typically" do play a 7-man rotation, and since (of the 8th men with 10+ mpg) only O'Connell's recruiting rank was anywhere close to Baker's, I'm sticking with my position that history says none of Baker, White, Vrankovic, or Goldwire is likely to top 10 mpg.

    Obviously Baker could follow AOC's footsteps, but I don't think one exception suggests a new rule.
    Feel free to stick with your position. There have been years when we haven’t gone 8 deep for sure. Especially back in the 5/8 era when early entry first arrived and we didn’t even have 8 top-100 recruits (2000-2002 say hello). In those years, Coach K didn’t extend the bench to 8 because the talent dropoff was too great. When we have had at least 8 guys rated that high in the last 10 years, more often than not we have played the 8th man at least 8 mpg. And O’Connell isn’t a singular exception. I noted three others as well.

    In the last 10 years, the 8th man has averaged at least 9 mpg 7 times, with the 9th man sneaking into the 8+ minutes per game a few times too. And that is ignoring that injuries and early entry sapped the rotation/depth in a couple of those 3 off-years. So, I would say that the 8th man playing 8-12 mpg seems like the new norm. And 3 or 4 of those seven 8th men getting 9+ mpg have been freshmen rated in Baker’s range or worse. So, yeah, I am gonna call shenanigans on claiming that O’Connell is just one exception to any sort of rule.

    Based on the past 10 years, the evidence suggests relatively strongly (more than 2:1) that the 8th man will play 8+ mpg. And (ignoring roster composition) there is a 30-40% chance that there will be a freshman in the 30+ range averaging 8-12 mpg. I think the likelihood goes up from there when roster construction is considered (i.e., the competition for that 8th spot isn’t as fierce as in some other years, a lot like last year).

  3. #2783
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Maybe, except Tyler Thornton says hello.

    And if your definition of rotation includes the 8th man whether or not he plays a lot of minutes, Nick Horvath, Matt Christensen, and Reggie Love say hi too.



    It may be semantic, since I don't know exactly what you mean by "strict 7-man rotation," but in the 19 years of the RSCI era, our 8th man has topped 10 mpg only six times. So it seems to me that we "typically" do play a 7-man rotation, and since (of the 8th men with 10+ mpg) only O'Connell's recruiting rank was anywhere close to Baker's, I'm sticking with my position that history says none of Baker, White, Vrankovic, or Goldwire is likely to top 10 mpg.

    Obviously Baker could follow AOC's footsteps, but I don't think one exception suggests a new rule.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Lee Melchionni, Nick Horvath, Matt Christensen. Guys ranked outside the top-100 can earn PT at Duke.
    Just to be clear, I'm talking about at least 8-12 mpg when talking about "in the rotation." Thornton and Melchionni are, I believe, the only guys to have that distinction in the past 15-20 years. Horvath came close though, but I don't think he ever quite got the mpg. And both Melchionni and Thornton were somewhat exceptional cases of need. In Melchionni's case, it was the 5/8 rule which just ended, the somewhat unexpected early-entry of Deng, and the skipping of college altogether by Livingston that left us really shorthanded in 2004-5, which is when he broke into the rotation. And it was arguably the somewhat unexpected loss of Randolph combined with the injury to Nelson and the lack of readiness of the freshmen forwards that kept him firmly in it in 2005-6. In Thornton's case, it was the injury to Irving that got him into the rotation, and the lack of PG/wing play the next two years that kept him in it.

    I think next year's team will have either a freshman in the ~40 range or a player outside the top-200 getting those last rotation spot (8-12 mpg) minutes. It could be that it is White, though I think it will be Baker unless he decides to redshirt. There is a bit more of a track record in the past 10 years of having a guy like Baker play 8-12 mpg (3-4 times in the past 10) than there is of a guy like White getting 8-12 mpg (never has happened) or of us going with only 7 guys averaging 8+ mpg (3 times in the past 10).

  4. #2784
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Just to be clear, I'm talking about at least 8-12 mpg when talking about "in the rotation." Thornton and Melchionni are, I believe, the only guys to have that distinction in the past 15-20 years. Horvath came close though, but I don't think he ever quite got the mpg. And both Melchionni and Thornton were somewhat exceptional cases of need. In Melchionni's case, it was the 5/8 rule which just ended, the somewhat unexpected early-entry of Deng, and the skipping of college altogether by Livingston that left us really shorthanded in 2004-5, which is when he broke into the rotation. And it was arguably the somewhat unexpected loss of Randolph combined with the injury to Nelson and the lack of readiness of the freshmen forwards that kept him firmly in it in 2005-6. In Thornton's case, it was the injury to Irving that got him into the rotation, and the lack of PG/wing play the next two years that kept him in it.

    I think next year's team will have either a freshman in the ~40 range or a player outside the top-200 getting those last rotation spot (8-12 mpg) minutes. It could be that it is White, though I think it will be Baker unless he decides to redshirt. There is a bit more of a track record in the past 10 years of having a guy like Baker play 8-12 mpg (3-4 times in the past 10) than there is of a guy like White getting 8-12 mpg (never has happened) or of us going with only 7 guys averaging 8+ mpg (3 times in the past 10).
    Horvath qualified in 2003. He played over 400 minutes that season.

  5. #2785
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Horvath qualified in 2003. He played over 400 minutes that season.
    Oops, I stand corrected. Though his case was also somewhat related to circumstance, with the 5/8 rule and the mass exodus after 2002, the injury to Randolph, the foul trouble for Williams, and the fact that Thompson just was not destined to be a D-1 contributor in the frontcourt. He then reverted back to a just out of the rotation guy in 2004.

  6. #2786
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Oops, I stand corrected. Though his case was also somewhat related to circumstance, with the 5/8 rule and the mass exodus after 2002, the injury to Randolph, the foul trouble for Williams, and the fact that Thompson just was not destined to be a D-1 contributor in the frontcourt. He then reverted back to a just out of the rotation guy in 2004.
    Well, that team did have Casey Sanders, Shelden Williams, Shavlik Randolph and Michael Thompson, all 6-10 or taller and all ranked top-30. So, I think Horvath deserves some credit for carving out meaningful playing time, circumstances notwithstanding.

    How far back are we going? Can we count Doug McNeely, Todd Anderson, Dan Meagher, and Greg Wendt?

    Wendt might have been a top-100 recruit. He averaged 30 or so ppg in a suburban Detroit league that evidently did not have ACC-level defenders.

    Meagher is a guy who punched above his weight class. No pun intended. As did pre-RSCII guys like John Smith, Brian Davis, Marty Clark or Carmen Wallace. Not sure any of them would have been consensus top-100, had such things existed.


    And yes, I've pretty much given up on the baseball game and am trying to distract myself from the fact that I have free access to unlimited M&Ms.

  7. #2787
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Well, that team did have Casey Sanders, Shelden Williams, Shavlik Randolph and Michael Thompson, all 6-10 or taller and all ranked top-30. So, I think Horvath deserves some credit for carving out meaningful playing time, circumstances notwithstanding.
    Right, but like I said, Randolph missed several games, Thompson just wasn't very good (he never did much after transferring either), and both Sanders and Williams were really foul prone (3 fouls per game each in less than 20 mpg). So, for sure, he deserves credit for beating out Thompson, but Thompson stunk. It was kind of a unique circumstance.

    Not trying to denigrate Horvath at all. He was a hard worker and overachiever. Just that his path to ~ 12-3 mpg in 2003 was kind of a perfect storm that year. It takes a pretty unusual set of circumstances for that to happen. And it has only happened thrice in the past 21 years as a result.

    Now, this coming year falls into that category a bit, with the only caveat that we don't have a 100-150 level player on the roster (a couple of ~250 level guys, a 300 level guy, a lower than 300 level guy, and a freshman in the ~40 range). But it seems pretty likely that one of those guys will average 8-12 mpg next year unless we go even shorter than usual with the rotation.

    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    How far back are we going? Can we count Doug McNeely, Todd Anderson, Dan Meagher, and Greg Wendt?

    Wendt might have been a top-100 recruit. He averaged 30 or so ppg in a suburban Detroit league that evidently did not have ACC-level defenders.

    Meagher is a guy who punched above his weight class. No pun intended. As did pre-RSCII guys like John Smith, Brian Davis, Marty Clark or Carmen Wallace. Not sure any of them would have been consensus top-100, had such things existed.
    Yeah, I'm pretty much just talking about fairly current-era Duke basketball. I.e., post-establishment of Duke as a recruiting juggernaut. So, really, the past 20-ish years beginning with the Battier/Brand/Burgess/Avery class. I don't think the 80s or even early/mid-90s are really comparable to today from a roster composition standpoint.

  8. #2788
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Right, but like I said, Randolph missed several games, Thompson just wasn't very good (he never did much after transferring either), and both Sanders and Williams were really foul prone (3 fouls per game each in less than 20 mpg). So, for sure, he deserves credit for beating out Thompson, but Thompson stunk.



    Yeah, I'm pretty much just talking about fairly current-era Duke basketball. I.e., post-establishment of Duke as a recruiting juggernaut. So, really, the past 20-ish years beginning with the Battier/Brand/Burgess/Avery class. I don't think the 80s or even early/mid-90s are really comparable to today from a roster composition standpoint.
    Thompson had an interesting post-Duke career. He transferred to Northwestern at midseason, 2004. He played one semester, averaging around 10 and 5. Then he was diagnosed with a heart irregularity and was forced to give up the sport.

    I suspect he would have developed into a top-tier college center. Duke thought he came in a little behind Shelden Williams and prioritized Williams' development for that season. Thompson didn't much care for that decision.

    Had he stayed, he would have been another big body to throw against Emeka O in the Final Four. By that point, he likely would have been ahead of Horvath in the rotation. And he would have been a major rotation player in 2005, had he been healthy.

    Alas and alack, we shall never know.

  9. #2789
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    And 3 or 4 of those seven 8th men getting 9+ mpg have been freshmen rated in Baker’s range or worse. So, yeah, I am gonna call shenanigans on claiming that O’Connell is just one exception to any sort of rule.
    While we're calling shenanigans, please name those 3 or 4 freshmen rated in "Baker's range or worse."

    As I see it, Tyler Thornton (who only played because Kyrie got hurt) and AOC are it. Andre Dawkins was rated in the 20s by the only service that re-rated him after he reclassified (I looked this up a long time ago and can't remember which service and since the major services have been bought and sold the data appears to be gone), while Baker was rated #39 and #46 by the two services that re-rated him, and the next worst rating among freshmen 8th men with 9+ mpg was Quinn Cook at #31.

    On the topic of whether guys ranked in the 100s have a better or worse chance of playing rotation roles at Duke than guys better rated (but worse than 35): Obviously low sample size is an issue, but of the 10 guys in the RSCI era Duke recruited in the 36 to 99 range, only four (AOC, MP1, MP3, and Dave McClure) went on to play rotation minutes. Of the four guys in the 100 to 150 range (not counting Christensen (who was recruited in 1995 but ended up playing during the RSCI era) or Love (who walked on from the football team), three out of four ended up playing rotation minutes at some point in their careers.

  10. #2790
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    While we're calling shenanigans, please name those 3 or 4 freshmen rated in "Baker's range or worse."

    As I see it, Tyler Thornton (who only played because Kyrie got hurt) and AOC are it. Andre Dawkins was rated in the 20s by the only service that re-rated him after he reclassified (I looked this up a long time ago and can't remember which service and since the major services have been bought and sold the data appears to be gone), while Baker was rated #39 and #46 by the two services that re-rated him, and the next worst rating among freshmen 8th men with 9+ mpg was Quinn Cook at #31.

    On the topic of whether guys ranked in the 100s have a better or worse chance of playing rotation roles at Duke than guys better rated (but worse than 35): Obviously low sample size is an issue, but of the 10 guys in the RSCI era Duke recruited in the 36 to 99 range, only four (AOC, MP1, MP3, and Dave McClure) went on to play rotation minutes. Of the four guys in the 100 to 150 range (not counting Christensen (who was recruited in 1995 but ended up playing during the RSCI era) or Love (who walked on from the football team), three out of four ended up playing rotation minutes at some point in their careers.
    I said sub-30 recruits. So O’Connell, Cook, Thornton, and maybe Dawkins (I am not taking a single rating that may or may not have been in the 20s only from memory as reason to exclude him from possible consideration as a sub-30 guy, or 30+ guy, whatever is the appropriate way to say it). I think 40 is a lot more like 31 than 70. You choose the arbitrary cutoff of 35, not me.

    But whether you want to say 2, 3, or 4, the fact remains that more often than not the 8th man is topping 9 mpg at Duke in the last decade. And it has multiple times been a guy rated comparably to (or worse than) Baker. But it quite clearly isn’t just O’Connell.

    Now, Coach K certainly could buck recent trends and go with just 7 guys getting 8+ mpg. But I think it is more likely that he doesn’t and that one of Baker or White averages 8+ mpg as the 8th man. My guess is White, but I do think it will be someone.

  11. #2791
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Is it too optimistic of me to hope Duke will win a bunch of blowouts and the 8th and 9th men will both get 8+minutes?

  12. #2792
    Reggie Love ! Now he could play 8,9 or 10th man and run the White House at the same time.

  13. #2793
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Boca Grande Florida
    In the “know thy enemy” department...

    I ran across this video of 2018 UNC recruit Coby White which gives some insight into what sort of player and kid Duke will be facing the next few years.

    I am particularly impressed by his feel for space and his hesitation moves off the dribble. It’s something we don’t see from a lot of players these days and will lead to him getting to the line a lot.

    He’s coming out of HS as NC’s all time scoring leader. We expect him to put a lot of pressure on defenses and open things up for the inside guys.

  14. #2794
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    In the “know thy enemy” department...

    I ran across this video of 2018 UNC recruit Coby White which gives some insight into what sort of player and kid Duke will be facing the next few years.

    I am particularly impressed by his feel for space and his hesitation moves off the dribble. It’s something we don’t see from a lot of players these days and will lead to him getting to the line a lot.

    He’s coming out of HS as NC’s all time scoring leader. We expect him to put a lot of pressure on defenses and open things up for the inside guys.
    Hey Wheat -- I don't have time to watch a video on how awesome Coby White will be, but I did have time to propose a pie bet with you in the Pie Thread for next season.

  15. #2795
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I said sub-30 recruits. So O’Connell, Cook, Thornton, and maybe Dawkins (I am not taking a single rating that may or may not have been in the 20s only from memory as reason to exclude him from possible consideration as a sub-30 guy, or 30+ guy, whatever is the appropriate way to say it). I think 40 is a lot more like 31 than 70. You choose the arbitrary cutoff of 35, not me.

    But whether you want to say 2, 3, or 4, the fact remains that more often than not the 8th man is topping 9 mpg at Duke in the last decade. And it has multiple times been a guy rated comparably to (or worse than) Baker. But it quite clearly isn’t just O’Connell.

    Now, Coach K certainly could buck recent trends and go with just 7 guys getting 8+ mpg. But I think it is more likely that he doesn’t and that one of Baker or White averages 8+ mpg as the 8th man. My guess is White, but I do think it will be someone.
    Yeesh, I just reread my post. Obviously, I meant "my guess is Baker," not White (sorry kAzE, though I do think one of us will be correct next year ). White would be my second guess, and would be my first guess if Baker decides to redshirt or gets hurt.

  16. #2796
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Boca Grande Florida
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Hey Wheat -- I don't have time to watch a video on how awesome Coby White will be, but I did have time to propose a pie bet with you in the Pie Thread for next season.
    You should make time, it’s pretty good. The kid is getting some good training and it shows a lot about his game...I always watch a Duke recruit’s video library when I can find them.

    I’ll chew on the pie bet proposal. Duke’s ranked top 3 preseason everywhere, greatest recruiting class of future pros of all time...and UNC has a lot of rebuilding to do.

    Seems like I’d be the dog in a bet like that.

  17. #2797
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rent free in tarheels’ heads
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    In the “know thy enemy” department...

    I ran across this video of 2018 UNC recruit Coby White which gives some insight into what sort of player and kid Duke will be facing the next few years.

    I am particularly impressed by his feel for space and his hesitation moves off the dribble. It’s something we don’t see from a lot of players these days and will lead to him getting to the line a lot.

    He’s coming out of HS as NC’s all time scoring leader. We expect him to put a lot of pressure on defenses and open things up for the inside guys.
    Let me guess... he shoots 100% from the field.
    “Coach said no 3s.” - Zion on The Block

  18. #2798

    Reid Transfer will grad transfer to...

    Multiple reports out this morning that Reid Transfer, PF from Stanford, has withdrawn from the NBA Draft and will graduate and transfer to another school for his final year of eligibility in the NCAA. Numerous reports are out that he is considering Kentucky as a destination.

    That particular landing spot is interesting for a number of reasons. The Wildcats just landed 5-star PF E.J. Montgomery but are still awaiting word on whether Wenyen Gabriel and/or P.J. Washington will return next year. As of right now, UK has a boat-load of wings and guards with a relatively thin group of frontcourt players. Adding Travis would help in both years of experience and depth at the very least. The former Stanford Cardinal averaged about 19 points and 9 rebounds last year.

  19. #2799
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    ^ Jarred Vanderbilt could still return too. That would give them five power forwards. Makes no sense.

  20. #2800
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Reid Transfer will grad transfer to...

    Multiple reports out this morning that Reid Transfer, PF from Stanford, has withdrawn from the NBA Draft and will graduate and transfer to another school for his final year of eligibility in the NCAA. Numerous reports are out that he is considering Kentucky as a destination.

    That particular landing spot is interesting for a number of reasons. The Wildcats just landed 5-star PF E.J. Montgomery but are still awaiting word on whether Wenyen Gabriel and/or P.J. Washington will return next year. As of right now, UK has a boat-load of wings and guards with a relatively thin group of frontcourt players. Adding Travis would help in both years of experience and depth at the very least. The former Stanford Cardinal averaged about 19 points and 9 rebounds last year.
    Stunning news. I would have expected a guy with the name “Reid Transfer” to pick one school and stick with it.

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