Ratings report (aka: how long will the new shows survive?)

[JasonEvans]

I'll tryot put up something daily here with a look at how the TV season is going ratings-wise. After all, it is ratings that determine which of these new shows will stick around and which will go buh-bye.

Monday, the first real new day of the season, was a big one for one returning show but had bad news for nearly everyone else.

ABC won the night behind the strong Dancing With the Stars. That reality turd (I hate the show) was even stronger this year than in its debut last year. It seems likely to be a ratings force for a while. It pulled in 21.3 million viewers, though it skews older.

Heroes came in fairly strong with 14.1 million viewers, though that was only what it did in its debut last year and not quite up to the numbers it was pulling at the end of last season. Perhaps this is an ominous sign?

CSI: Miami took a real rating tumble, falling 2 million viewers from last season's debut with 15.1 million viewers. The CSI franchise has been suffereing a bit lately-- which could be a very bad sign for CSI-addicted CBS.

How I Met Your Mother also saw a 2 million viewer drop from its debut last year. It only took in 8.1 million viewers. Yikes for one of the best comedys on TV, though I thought the episode was only so-so for this usually great show. Two and a Half Men, which had been a force a year ago, struggled a bit with 13.6 million viewers, more than a million less than it was pulling a year ago.

Among new shows, Chuck did ok with 9.2 million viewers. It was up against the Dancing juggernaut and came in 2nd in its 8pm timeslot, which is pretty good. Journeyman may have a very short journey. It did 9.2 million at 10pm, good for 2nd to CSI: Miami but a pretty steep dropoff from Heroes and something like 4 million behind what Studio 60 did a year ago. Of course, the key is will Journeyman hold its audience or fade the way Studio 60 did. The Big Bang Theory on CBS actually improved upon the HIMYM leadin, but still only did sos-so numbers with 9.5 million viewers.

--Jason "I'd say Journeyman is in real trouble and if Heroes sags in coming weeks you may see the writers panic and go for even crazier storylines" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I totally forgot to mention this-- a couple new shows debuted last week.

Survivor: China pulled in 15.4 million viewers, 2 million less than last year and (I think) the lowest opening for any edition of the reality franchise since maybe the first season. Still, it was the 2nd highest rated show of the week (very little else was new last week). I don't think Survivor is in any real trouble though the long-term prospects may be starting to sag.

The debut of Kelsey Grammer's Back To You had 9.5 million viewers last week and Kid Nation did a similar total (9.4 million). If those numbers hold up those shows will be fine, but there was so little competition a week ago. We'll just have to see.

Typically, for new shows, it takes a few weeks to really figure things out. What really matters is does the show build or hold or decline.

--Jason "was this useful or dull?" Evans

[TillyGalore]

Jason, how did PBS's "The War" do? I've been forgoing all other programming to watch it, though DVR'd it to watch again.

[JasonEvans]

Jason, how did PBS's "The War" do? I've been forgoing all other programming to watch it, though DVR'd it to watch again.

It was strong, though not off the charts. An average of 7.3 million people were watching at any given moment-- which is about double what PBS typically gets in prime time. Something like 18 million people watched at least a few minutes of it. It was long, 2.5 hours, so it is not surprising that many people did not tune in for the whole thing. The numbers are close to what Ken Burns' Baseball did, though well short of what his Civil War series brought in.

--Jason "PBA will make a ton more when they begin selling The War on DVD... in like 2 weeks or so" Evans

[TillyGalore]

"PBA will make a ton more when they begin selling The War on DVD... in like 2 weeks or so"

Thanks to the internet, they are already selling DVDs, companion books, and soundtracks. You gotta love commercialization!

The series ran Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday night, and will air another episode tonight, as well as episodes next week. 15 hours total in the series.

The only drawback to Ken Burns's documentary's, is you almost have to commit yourself to TV for two weeks. But he does do a great job and tries to tell the whole story.

As I'm recording Criminal Minds tonight (along with "The War") would the ratings people pick up on my recording of CM or as I won't actually watch it will that have no effect on the ratings? I've always been curious as to how the ratings gurus actually come up with their numbers.

[JasonEvans]

Thanks to the internet, they are already selling DVDs, companion books, and soundtracks. You gotta love commercialization!

The series ran Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday night, and will air another episode tonight, as well as episodes next week. 15 hours total in the series.

The only drawback to Ken Burns's documentary's, is you almost have to commit yourself to TV for two weeks. But he does do a great job and tries to tell the whole story.

As I'm recording Criminal Minds tonight (along with "The War") would the ratings people pick up on my recording of CM or as I won't actually watch it will that have no effect on the ratings? I've always been curious as to how the ratings gurus actually come up with their numbers.

Just last year they started adding in viewers who watch shows within 3 days of their original airing on TIVOs and other DVRs. It is called +3 and is typically considered the same as watching a show the night it first airs.

--Jason "there are also +7 (one week) ratings, but those are pretty much ignored for some reason" Evans

[toughbuff1]

Any word yet on how The Reaper did? I watched it last night, and it looks like it has potential. I think they are re-airing it on thursday. What are good ratings for a network like the CW anyway?

[hc5duke]

Any word yet on how The Reaper did? I watched it last night, and it looks like it has potential. I think they are re-airing it on thursday. What are good ratings for a network like the CW anyway?

Tagging onto your post: any word on how K-Ville did? It's a bit corny/cliched cop-drama but I'm hooked...

[TillyGalore]

Just last year they started adding in viewers who watch shows within 3 days of their original airing on TIVOs and other DVRs. It is called +3 and is typically considered the same as watching a show the night it first airs.

--Jason "there are also +7 (one week) ratings, but those are pretty much ignored for some reason" Evans

Holy cow! How do they do it? Never mind, it'll probably take another 1,000 posts to explain.

Thanks for the insight.

[Clipsfan]

Holy cow! How do they do it? Never mind, it'll probably take another 1,000 posts to explain.

Thanks for the insight.

They know what people watch on their DVRs because the DVRs send all the information back to the companies. I know for a fact that Tivo does this (which is a large part of why I don't plug my Tivo in) and I have to assume that the cable DVRs do the same thing, given that they have the pipeline. It is possible that Tivo views the data mining as a better asset than the actual revenue stream for subscribing.

Thanks to the data mining, they can figure out whether people watched within 3 or 7 days.

[TillyGalore]

They know what people watch on their DVRs because the DVRs send all the information back to the companies. I know for a fact that Tivo does this (which is a large part of why I don't plug my Tivo in) and I have to assume that the cable DVRs do the same thing, given that they have the pipeline. It is possible that Tivo views the data mining as a better asset than the actual revenue stream for subscribing.

Thanks to the data mining, they can figure out whether people watched within 3 or 7 days.

Do they know when I take a bathroom break too? Just kidding.

[aimo]

Any word yet on how The Reaper did? I watched it last night, and it looks like it has potential. I think they are re-airing it on thursday. What are good ratings for a network like the CW anyway?

If I'm reading the ratings correctly, it looks like Reaper had 3 million viewers compared to House's 16 million which one the timeslot.

[BlueDiablo]

Just last year they started adding in viewers who watch shows within 3 days of their original airing on TIVOs and other DVRs. It is called +3 and is typically considered the same as watching a show the night it first airs.

--Jason "there are also +7 (one week) ratings, but those are pretty much ignored for some reason" Evans

I'm pretty sure that live +3 is a compromise between the networks and the advertisers. Networks want credit for everyone who watches time-shifted. Advertisers don't want to pay for those people because they believe (probably correctly) that most of those people flip past their ads anyways. +3 is a workable compromise for now.

[JasonEvans]

I'm pretty sure that live +3 is a compromise between the networks and the advertisers. Networks want credit for everyone who watches time-shifted. Advertisers don't want to pay for those people because they believe (probably correctly) that most of those people flip past their ads anyways. +3 is a workable compromise for now.

Nielsen has just started measuring minute-by-minute ratings and will now be able to tell advertisers what the ratings are WITHIN THE COMMERICAL BREAK. This is a major data point for advertisers and all the folks in TV land are furiously working on new ways of making sure that people watch through the commerical break. It used to be that if ytou watched for a bit adn then changed the channel at the commercial it was not that huge deal to the TV network. Not anymore. You can expect more cliffahngers and other tricks to get you to watch all the way through the commercial in the future.

--Jason "I have been to like 5 different classes on teasing over the past 6 months at CNN... it is insane!!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Tagging onto your post: any word on how K-Ville did? It's a bit corny/cliched cop-drama but I'm hooked...

Really bad news for K-Ville. Its opening week was ok, with close to 9 million viewers. Not good, but not terrible. But, this week with other new shows appearing and more competition, it sank. It got just 6.2 million viewers this week, a 30% drop off. It is dropping more than a million viewers off its leadin, Prison Break. If KVille continues to sag, it will be toast very quickly.

Then again, its future was always in doubt because Fox goes to 24 in Janaury at 9pm. They may keep KVille around until then just because I am not sure what else they have to go in that slot.

--Jason

[Clipsfan]

Really bad news for K-Ville. Its opening week was ok, with close to 9 million viewers. Not good, but not terrible. But, this week with other new shows appearing and more competition, it sank. It got just 6.2 million viewers this week, a 30% drop off. It is dropping more than a million viewers off its leadin, Prison Break. If KVille continues to sag, it will be toast very quickly.

Then again, its future was always in doubt because Fox goes to 24 in Janaury at 9pm. They may keep KVille around until then just because I am not sure what else they have to go in that slot.

--Jason

We just had the co-presidents of Fox TV give a speech at lunch today and they addressed K-ville very briefly, stating that they know that it had a decline from the first to second week but that they have decent hopes for it and plan to stand behind it. This is fairly generic, of course, and the longevity of the show will depend on the number of viewers. I haven't seen it yet, and don't really have any interest at the moment.

[JasonEvans]

After some so-so debuts for new shows on Monday, the first two candidates to be new hits this season reared their heads on Tuedsay.

The first is Reaper. None too suprising considering it got rave reviews and a lot of publicity. It scored 3.4 million viewers, which would be pretty weak for the major networks but qualifies as a big debut on the struggling CW. You all know I did not really liek the episode so it will be interesting to see how the show holds up. It was about 13% higher than its leadin, Beauty and the Geek, which is one of the more succesful shows on CW so you can bet the network is excited today.

The other hit was a surprise-- Cane, the new Jimmy Smits drama about sugar. It brought in 11.1 million viewers, though the audience skewed really old. Significantly, it improved on its leadin, The Unit. If it holds up, this will be a success for the suddenly struggling CBS.

ABC's Dancing won the night. Boston Legal's season debut was pretty weak, a million less than that show did in its debut a year ago. House had big numbers, 18.1 million viewers, its best performance ever without having Idol as a leadin. Plus, House skews young and won the night for viewers between 18-49. House looks to still be a real ratings force for Fox.

--Jason "more later..." Evans

[Bluedawg]

I actually enjoyed Cane,I didn't expect to. It might do better than i expected. K-ville was good, but I thought it woudl be...i liked the premise and I'm tired of cop shows from NY.

I also enjoyed Chuck and Journeyman . Althiough i love CSI: Miami, in fact the only CSI i don't like is CSI: NY, I was a bit dissipointed with the first show.

Questions for Jason. Law and Order CI is moving to USA for the first run then will be repeated on NBC. Any idea when NBC will air it? Also, how did Prison Break and Bionic Woman do, or did you report that and I just missed it?

[billybreen]

I'm watching Cane right now. I expected to hate it, but it's not so bad so far.

I didn't know Polly Walker was coming to prime time. Vorenus, now Atia. Seriously, where is Pullo's show?

[JasonEvans]

The story of the night is Bionic Woman versus Private Practice. It is rare that new shows have built-in audience recognition and appeal but these two do.

Both shows did quite well. Bionic Woman won the night among the key young demographics and, quite significantly, built its audience from its first half hour to the second. It averaged 13.6 million viewers and scored especially well among men. Private Practice had 14.2 million viewers though it skewed more female and older. Its audience was pretty much flat throughout the hour. One more somewhat ominous sign for PP was that Bionic built strongly from its Deal or No Deal leadin while PP fell off about 20% from the huuuge leadin it got from night 3 of Dancing with the Stars. It won't always having Dancing sitting there in front of it to give it a boost. That could be a bad sign for the Grey's spinoff.

speaking of bad signs, Kid Nation may already be in trouble. After getting more than 9 million viewers in its first week, it slumped more than 20% in week two. There has to be concern about the show surviving the season if it continues to shed viewers. I am surprised it is doing so poorly as I heard a ton of people talking about it over the weekend so I thought it had big buzz... apparently not.

One more interesting development-- NBC's Life, which critics had skewered, actually beat the more highly touted Dirty, Sexy Money at 10pm. Life did a good job of holding onto its bionic leadin audience... better than DSM did, that's for sure. Then again, neither series may be long-lived as they both saw their audiences dip significantly in the 2nd half-hour meaning people sampled them and then moved on.

Oh, one more thing-- Kelsey Grammer's attempt to be on a third hit sitcom is off to a shaky start. His Back to You fell like 25% from its first week. Gaaack!!!

--Jason "Thursday numbers as soon as I get em" Evans