Carolina pre-season #1? I say nay nay!

[Eakane]

I think sometimes the press makes news rather than reporting on it. That's how I feel about the presumptive pre-season number 1 ranking for Carolina. Somebody said it, and then it took off.

Carolina will have a good squad -- lots of talented pieces; and no matter what people around here say, Roy is an excellent coach. But the team is not without significant problems. In no particular order: true, they don't lose much, and Tokoto may be addition by subtraction. But they don't gain much either. Just a little outside shooting, which admittedly, fills one of their needs; but not enough to be a game-changer. And true, they will all be one year older and more experienced, and Paige will presumably be healthy, but this is a team that went 26-12 last year. IMO, there's not enough to alter that sufficiently to put them at number 1. Maybe it gets a little better -perhaps 6-8 losses rather than 12. We'll see.

But the biggest problem is that the off-season was anything but uneventful. The scandal is not going away, and will at the least be a major distraction. Over at IC (had to visit to engage in a little bit of schadenfreude), they think the worst of it is over. That's not how I read the tea leaves. If anything, it's hardly begun.

So, can Roy put the pieces together, avoid the mines and make a championship run? It's possible, but I think unlikely. A few early season losses and I'll have to pay another visit to IC.

[Wander]

The issue is that, unlike some years, there's not an easy #1 candidate to put there instead. I agree that UNC shouldn't be considered a runaway #1, but there's nobody that so obviously deserves to be ahead of them that it's stupid to rank UNC at 1. You can make an argument for Kansas, Oklahoma, Maryland, Virginia, maybe a few others, but they're all debatable.

[superdave]

Would anyone care to bet that Roy figures out how to run an 8 or 9 man rotation that makes sense by the end of the season?

If he cannot figure that out, that team will never be as good as they ought to be. It's that sort of thing that drive guys like Tokoto crazy.

[BD80]

I think sometimes the press makes news rather than reporting on it. That's how I feel about the presumptive pre-season number 1 ranking for Carolina. Somebody said it, and then it took off.

Carolina will have a good squad -- lots of talented pieces; and no matter what people around here say, Roy is an excellent coach. But the team is not without significant problems. In no particular order: true, they don't lose much, and Tokoto may be addition by subtraction. But they don't gain much either. Just a little outside shooting, which admittedly, fills one of their needs; but not enough to be a game-changer. And true, they will all be one year older and more experienced, and Paige will presumably be healthy, but this is a team that went 26-12 last year. IMO, there's not enough to alter that sufficiently to put them at number 1. Maybe it gets a little better -perhaps 6-8 losses rather than 12. We'll see.

But the biggest problem is that the off-season was anything but uneventful. The scandal is not going away, and will at the least be a major distraction. Over at IC (had to visit to engage in a little bit of schadenfreude), they think the worst of it is over. That's not how I read the tea leaves. If anything, it's hardly begun.

So, can Roy put the pieces together, avoid the mines and make a championship run? It's possible, but I think unlikely. A few early season losses and I'll have to pay another visit to IC.

This is actually quite amusing.

ol' roy was already faced with the heightened attention from the scandal

now he'll have the heightened attention of the pre-season #1 one, COMBINED with the scandal

EVERY interview will include questions about the scandal, and because unc is preseason #1, there will be more interviews; and unc will be listed first in each article - further highlighting the scandal.

Now let's add in the extra stress of being pre-season #1.

This could be a really fun season. I can easily see it being ol' roy's last.

[Duvall]

The issue is that, unlike some years, there's not an easy #1 candidate to put there instead. I agree that UNC shouldn't be considered a runaway #1, but there's nobody that so obviously deserves to be ahead of them that it's stupid to rank UNC at 1. You can make an argument for Kansas, Oklahoma, Maryland, Virginia, maybe a few others, but they're all debatable.

Watch #6 and #12.

[Bob Green]

...and Tokoto may be addition by subtraction.

I totally disagree with this sentiment. Carolina is going to miss Tokoto. Yeah, I know he was good for a boneheaded play or two per game, but he also hustled, played defense and was the guy who was willing to do the dirty work.

[OldPhiKap]

UNC has the potential to be really good this year. But as mentioned, there is no dominant team and a lot of competition. I think the two keys for them are Paige, and developing more reliable shooting from outside. I like Paige's game and hope he is healthy. Not sure who will be the other outside force though.

[MarkD83]

UNC still does not have a lightning fast point guard to run the fast break and without Tokoto they lose a player that can fill the lane on the break.

[duke09hms]

I'm starting to get uneasy with all this glee over UNC's upcoming season. Remember how they must have mocked us going into 2010? Their inability to develop players for the NBA has left a lot of latent talent on the bench. Latent talent that can break out unexpectedly. Like herpes. And as we surely know, seniors can very well put it together for their last year.

[brevity]

I was looking for the link that prompted this thread. There isn't one.

Aside from a June update by the San Jose paper, Google News has nothing recent to report on the rankings next season. There may be a few isolated opinions, but no voting has taken place. So why are we doing this?

As weezie pointed out upthread, UNC isn't exactly stealing anyone's birthright at #1. They're not my choice -- just another isolated opinion -- but they are not an illogical choice. Besides, I have such low expectations for them next spring that a big fall from preseason #1 sounds just fine.

[Duke95]

I was looking for the link that prompted this thread. There isn't one.

Unfortunately, there is, from the UNC department of propaganda. UNC is front page "news" on NCAA men's bb.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...ing-up-the-acc

[Duke95]

UNC still does not have a lightning fast point guard to run the fast break and without Tokoto they lose a player that can fill the lane on the break.

Kennedy Meeks can fill the lane. If you wait long enough for him to get there.

[camion]

Preseason All-America, NPOY, Number 1. I say let them hang October/November banners.

Ever since HB matriculated at UNC they have been awesome before the actual season started. The preseason hype hasn't helped them too much in March/April though.

[Olympic Fan]

Haven't we been through this a few dozen times already?

I'm getting tired of explaining why Virginia, not UNC, should be the preseason ACC favorite next year.

As for Tokoto, amazing the argument that it's addition by subtraction -- he was (1) their best defender and (2) their second-best 3-point shooter AND (3) their BEST distributor (Paige had more assists, but Tokoto had more assists per minute played). Hard to say they won't miss him.

As for alternatives to UNC as the national No. 1, allow me to offer:

(1) Virginia -- a better core group that has won 30 games two straight years, including back-top-back outright ACC championships. They will start four seniors and a junior. They will also be the best defensive team in college basketball.

(2) Kentucky -- the late addition of Jamal Murray transforms their roster. Very nice mix of returning talent (Ulis, Poythress, Lee) and gifted newcomers (Murray, LaBissiere, Briscoe). Plus they play in the super-soft SEC, so a good chance to pile up a gaudy record.

(3) Kansas -- Anybody notice that Kansas -- without its freshmen recruits -- just won the World University Games for the United States? A great backcourt of Selden and Mason, plus Ellis back down low. Add dynamic PF Chieck Diallo and transfer guard Davonte Graham and they have a nice rotation. Cliff Alexander -- now there is addition by subtraction (there was a reason he was undrafted).

(4) Maryland -- a lot of new pieces, but the best PG in college basketball helps. Last year's team lacked strength down low, but the addition of Robert Carter Jr. and freshman center Diamond Stone makes a big difference. If Rasheed Sulaimon has indeed learned from his mistakes and matured, the Terps could be awesome.

(5) Duke -- okay, a lot of new pieces, I admit. But there's more talent in Durham than in Chapel Hill. K proved last year he could win with freshmen in key roles. He actually has a better core group this year. The last time UNC was better than Duke was 2012 ... I won't believe it until I see it.

[Wander]

As for Tokoto, amazing the argument that it's addition by subtraction -- he was (1) their best defender and (2) their second-best 3-point shooter AND (3) their BEST distributor (Paige had more assists, but Tokoto had more assists per minute played). Hard to say they won't miss him.

Only (1) is true. (2) isn't even remotely close to true, and (3) is also incorrect. Nate Britt and Justin Jackson were both superior 3-point shooters (neither of them were great, it's just that Tokoto is really bad). Paige is also easily a better distributor when you take turnovers into account.

[Duke95]

Only (1) is true. (2) isn't even remotely close to true, and (3) is also incorrect. Nate Britt and Justin Jackson were both superior 3-point shooters (neither of them were great, it's just that Tokoto is really bad). Paige is also easily a better distributor when you take turnovers into account.

Actually, #2 is correct in percentage terms, even though Tokoto was only 12-32.

[Olympic Fan]

Only (1) is true. (2) isn't even remotely close to true, and (3) is also incorrect. Nate Britt and Justin Jackson were both superior 3-point shooters (neither of them were great, it's just that Tokoto is really bad). Paige is also easily a better distributor when you take turnovers into account.

Really? Not even "remotely close to true"?
UNC 3-point percentages:

Paige .395
Tokoto .375
Britt .366
Berry .354
Jackson .304 (he is a superior 3-point shooter in your eyes?)

Maybe one of the reasons that Tokoto left was that Roy didn't want him shooting 3s -- even though he shot them better than anyone other than Paige.

As for the playmaking numbers, Tokoto had 163 assists (to Paige's 170). It's true that he led the team in turnovers, but he also created a ton of baskets for UNC -- more per minute than Paige.

And, as even you concede, he WAS their best defender (by far, I would argue) ... I didn't mention it, but he was also their best open-court player.

[moonpie23]

let em have their little "#1" ranking....it's short lived...

[mkirsh]

UNC will be very good next year - they will have good and experienced players and a very good coach. But what they don't seem to have is elite talent - outside of Page (who is likely a late first rounder) do they have any sure fire NBA players? Maybe Jackson gets there? So while they will be more experienced than other elite teams I would argue that they will have a lower overall ceiling. Doesn't mean they can't win it all (many have noted similarities to 2010), but generally it's hard to win when the best 3 players on the floor play for the other side. I think they will have a great regular season record and just get overmatched by someone younger but better in the tourney.

[Wander]

Really? Not even "remotely close to true"?
UNC 3-point percentages:

Paige .395
Tokoto .375
Britt .366
Berry .354
Jackson .304 (he is a superior 3-point shooter in your eyes?)

Maybe one of the reasons that Tokoto left was that Roy didn't want him shooting 3s -- even though he shot them better than anyone other than Paige.

Yes, really, not remotely close. Tokoto is a horrible jump shooter. Looking at percentages without the absolute numbers or any other context is not a good way to judge these things and leads to ridiculous conclusions like Sean Dockery being a better three point shooter than JJ Redick in 2005 or Marshall Plumlee being the best shooter in the history of college basketball. There's a reason that Tokoto barely got drafted. Kobe once hit as many threes in one game as Tokoto did this entire season.