MBB: July Recruiting In-Game Thread

[flyingdutchdevil]

Tyus Battle just committed to Syracuse, as expected via twitter.

Sweet. When is he gonna commit to another school? Next month?

[Olympic Fan]

Tyus Battle just committed to Syracuse, as expected via twitter.

Nice pickup for the 'Cuse.

But it's also evidence that the blue-blood programs have remarkable resiliency in the face of disaster. Syracuse is coming off NCAA probation, they are still dealing with scholarship reductions and a post-season ban and their Hall of Fame coach is retiring in a couple of years -- and they can still recruit elite talent.

I bring this up because many want to see a quick resolution to the UNC scandal. That's the WORST thing that could happen from our point of view. As soon as the issue is resolved and the penalties are served (the post-season ban anyway), North Carolina will be North Carolina again. It's the uncertainty of the future that has hamstrung their recruiting.

Take your time deciding this one NCAA -- at least until Harry Giles, Dennis Smith and Bam (I can never remember his full name) are locked up by rivals. Amazingly bad timing for the Heels - the best in-state recruiting class in history (two top 5 and three top 20 prospects) and they are going to get shut out after three decades of getting almost every in-state guy they wanted.

[Duke95]

Nice pickup for the 'Cuse.

But it's also evidence that the blue-blood programs have remarkable resiliency in the face of disaster. Syracuse is coming off NCAA probation, they are still dealing with scholarship reductions and a post-season ban and their Hall of Fame coach is retiring in a couple of years -- and they can still recruit elite talent.

I bring this up because many want to see a quick resolution to the UNC scandal. That's the WORST thing that could happen from our point of view. As soon as the issue is resolved and the penalties are served (the post-season ban anyway), North Carolina will be North Carolina again. It's the uncertainty of the future that has hamstrung their recruiting.

Take your time deciding this one NCAA -- at least until Harry Giles, Dennis Smith and Bam (I can never remember his full name) are locked up by rivals. Amazingly bad timing for the Heels - the best in-state recruiting class in history (two top 5 and three top 20 prospects) and they are going to get shut out after three decades of getting almost every in-state guy they wanted.

I'm not so sure about that part. I think UNC's woes go beyond the scandal. UNC's subpar player development has not been lost on recruits or NBA scouts. Williams also appears somewhat reticent about playing more talented underclassmen over experienced upperclassmen. Top recruits aren't all that excited about coming in to a program and playing under someone for 1-2 years. I think Dennis Smith is an example of that.

[sagegrouse]

I'm not so sure about that part. I think UNC's woes go beyond the scandal. UNC's subpar player development has not been lost on recruits or NBA scouts. Williams also appears somewhat reticent about playing more talented underclassmen over experienced upperclassmen. Top recruits aren't all that excited about coming in to a program and playing under someone for 1-2 years. I think Dennis Smith is an example of that.

I agree. In part, it is the problem of "too many players on scholarship" and, in part, a problem of Roy's helter-skelter substitution pattern, where few get really defined roles. Or, perhaps I am being unfair to Roy and don't see the underlying pattern ("method in his madness?").

[Billy Dat]

"Duke is beating Kentucky at its own game in recruiting"

http://www.sbnation.com/college-bask...um-harry-giles

[Olympic Fan]

I'm not so sure about that part. I think UNC's woes go beyond the scandal. UNC's subpar player development has not been lost on recruits or NBA scouts. Williams also appears somewhat reticent about playing more talented underclassmen over experienced upperclassmen. Top recruits aren't all that excited about coming in to a program and playing under someone for 1-2 years. I think Dennis Smith is an example of that.

Agree that Roy's sagging reputation -- well known now as a guy who retards one-and-done talent -- is hurting UNC almost as much as the scandal.

But that's temporary too. UNC will replace Roy with a hot young coach .. it won't be long until UNC is bad at the very top.

BTW, this lesson applies to Duke too. A lot of Duke-haters think that when K steps down, Duke fades back to mediocrity. But he's made Duke a blue blood and the blue bloods have tremendous resiliency. They can make a mistake in hiring and set themselves back, but they are never far away.

[roywhite]

Agree that Roy's sagging reputation -- well known now as a guy who retards one-and-done talent -- is hurting UNC almost as much as the scandal.

But that's temporary too. UNC will replace Roy with a hot young coach .. it won't be long until UNC is bad at the very top.

BTW, this lesson applies to Duke too. A lot of Duke-haters think that when K steps down, Duke fades back to mediocrity. But he's made Duke a blue blood and the blue bloods have tremendous resiliency. They can make a mistake in hiring and set themselves back, but they are never far away.

You have a point, and I'm optimistic about Duke Basketball after Coach K.

But there is a downside risk -- see UCLA. 9 coaches since Wooden with varying success. Better than mediocre? Probably yes overall, but waaay below the Wooden days.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agree that Roy's sagging reputation -- well known now as a guy who retards one-and-done talent -- is hurting UNC almost as much as the scandal.

But that's temporary too. UNC will replace Roy with a hot young coach .. it won't be long until UNC is bad at the very top.

Could not agree more. UNC will be very good again. The question is just how long.

BTW, this lesson applies to Duke too. A lot of Duke-haters think that when K steps down, Duke fades back to mediocrity. But he's made Duke a blue blood and the blue bloods have tremendous resiliency. They can make a mistake in hiring and set themselves back, but they are never far away.

Count me in the camp who is veeery worried about succession planning. It's not that there aren't suitors (there are), it's that Duke doesn't have the history of the other 5 true blue bloods (UNC, UCLA, Indiana, UK, KU) with Duke being the 6th true blue blood. Duke is the only school to not have championships with multiple coaches. Duke is the only school to not have a championship before 1990. To say that Duke's history is on par with these other schools is, IMO, disingenuous. We have been the most dominant school since the early 1990s, but I firmly believe that sustaining the success at Duke will be more challenging than the other 5 schools. IU and UCLA are living proof that even the strongest blue bloods cannot sustain success if they don't have the right infrastructure in place. I'm sure Coach K will leave the program in capable hands (Capel-able hands?), but I'm banking on plenty of tough road blocks ahead.

[JasonEvans]

"Duke is beating Kentucky at its own game in recruiting"

http://www.sbnation.com/college-bask...um-harry-giles

I just could not resist quoting a few sentences of the article:

These new recruits were born five years after Christian Laettner left college. It's forced into action a question that once felt impossible. Is Duke, like, actually cool?

All of this means it might be the worst time ever to be a Duke hater, as uncomfortable as it is to consider the thought.

Duke is on fire, and somehow it feels like they're just getting started. Everyone else should be very afraid.

-Jason "just can't stop smiling" Evans

[Nugget]

Agree that Roy's sagging reputation -- well known now as a guy who retards one-and-done talent -- is hurting UNC almost as much as the scandal.

But that's temporary too. UNC will replace Roy with a hot young coach .. it won't be long until UNC is bad at the very top.

BTW, this lesson applies to Duke too. A lot of Duke-haters think that when K steps down, Duke fades back to mediocrity. But he's made Duke a blue blood and the blue bloods have tremendous resiliency. They can make a mistake in hiring and set themselves back, but they are never far away.

Count me in the group that wants UNC's NCAA limbo to extend as long as possible. Having the uncertainty hanging over their heads is as much of a deterrent to top players as the actual penalties (if any) will be.

Also, given UNC's weak recruiting in 2015 and, likely, 2016, they will soon have loads of playing time to offer as a selling point.

Players in the Class of 2016 see a UNC roster when they would be coming into school likely to consist of a full starting lineup of pretty high caliber, experienced Top 15-50 players: Jr. PG Joel Berry; Sr. G Nate Britt; Jr. Wing Theo Pinson; (if he doesn't go) Jr. F Justin Jackson (or Sr. PF Isiah Hicks) and Sr. C Kennedy Meeks.

But, guys in the Class of 2017, would have to compete with, at most, Pinson, Berry (hard to see Jackson staying all 4 years) and current incoming frosh SG Kenny Williams and PF Luke Maye. If I were a top Wing or Big in the class of 2017 (or a group of them who wanted to be a "package deal"), I would find UNC's situation very attractive from the PT and exposure standpoint.

[tux]

Agree that Roy's sagging reputation -- well known now as a guy who retards one-and-done talent -- is hurting UNC almost as much as the scandal.

But that's temporary too. UNC will replace Roy with a hot young coach .. it won't be long until UNC is bad at the very top.

BTW, this lesson applies to Duke too. A lot of Duke-haters think that when K steps down, Duke fades back to mediocrity. But he's made Duke a blue blood and the blue bloods have tremendous resiliency. They can make a mistake in hiring and set themselves back, but they are never far away.

While perhaps UNC will one day (maybe sooner than we'd like) be back to being "UNC", I can't help to wonder how much the UNC brand was damaged by the behavior that led to the Wainstein Report and the new batch of NCAA allegations. Most media accounts focus on the threat of impending NCAA sanctions as the primary cause of recent recruiting struggles, but recruits (and their parents) may be turned off just as much by the actual wrongdoing, perhaps even more than what the punishments will eventually look like.

My prediction is that UNC basketball recruiting (post-sanctions) will do fine getting local talent with family and community connections to the university, but their national recruiting efforts may lag behind for many more years.

[Kedsy]

It's not that there aren't suitors (there are), it's that Duke doesn't have the history of the other 5 true blue bloods (UNC, UCLA, Indiana, UK, KU) with Duke being the 6th true blue blood. Duke is the only school to not have championships with multiple coaches. Duke is the only school to not have a championship before 1990. To say that Duke's history is on par with these other schools is, IMO, disingenuous.

I entirely disagree with this assessment. Take away the top coach at each school (K, Smith, Wooden, Knight, Rupp, Phog Allen) and compare the schools' remaining histories. Kentucky's is clearly ahead of Duke, Kansas might be (but only because Kansas has done well in the years that Coach K has been at Duke), but UNC's, UCLA's, and Indiana's histories don't outshine Duke's. In fact, Duke has had more consecutive seasons with double-figure (10+) wins than any Division I school (including all the "true blue bloods" you mention).

Especially UNC. In the 1960s, Duke was the dominant ACC program, not UNC. Duke has gone to the Final Four under three different coaches, just one fewer than UNC. Going into the 1966-67 season, Duke had been to more Final Fours than UNC (more Final Fours than Indiana, too; the same number as UCLA, and one fewer than Kansas). The fact that UNC won a title (in triple OT) in one of its two pre-Dean Final Fours, while Duke lost its best shot in the final game, doesn't make UNC's history more "true blue blood" than Duke's.

[Olympic Fan]

Count me in the camp who is veeery worried about succession planning. It's not that there aren't suitors (there are), it's that Duke doesn't have the history of the other 5 true blue bloods (UNC, UCLA, Indiana, UK, KU) with Duke being the 6th true blue blood. Duke is the only school to not have championships with multiple coaches. Duke is the only school to not have a championship before 1990. To say that Duke's history is on par with these other schools is, IMO, disingenuous. We have been the most dominant school since the early 1990s, but I firmly believe that sustaining the success at Duke will be more challenging than the other 5 schools. IU and UCLA are living proof that even the strongest blue bloods cannot sustain success if they don't have the right infrastructure in place. I'm sure Coach K will leave the program in capable hands (Capel-able hands?), but I'm banking on plenty of tough road blocks ahead.

ALL of the blue bloods were elevated to that status by a great coach. What was Kentucky before Rupp ... what was UCLA before Wooden? UNC was a good regional program before Dean Smith (they one one conference title between 1945 and 1967).

While Duke is the last team to achieve blue-blood status (unless you think UConn has reached that level), it's not like its been a short-term thing. Duke has been the nation's best program in the 64-team NCAA Tournament era, starting in 1985. There's not a prep prospect alive (or a future prospect) who doesn't remember growing up in an era when Duke wasn't a super power. That's not going to end the moment K retires. Duke will still have Cameron, the Crazies, the five (or more) banners and the great TV exposure.

Obviously, Duke has to make a good choice to succeed K. And it's not fair to suggest that coach to exactly match K's success -- he is, after all, the GOAT.

But unless Kevin White really screws up the succession, Duke will remain a super power for a long time ... until and unless a succession of bad decisions slowly pulls Duke down.

[COYS]

But unless Kevin White really screws up the succession, Duke will remain a super power for a long time ... until and unless a succession of bad decisions slowly pulls Duke down.

Knocking on wood as I type this, but it really would take a long succession of bad decisions to put Duke in a position where it really had no chance to compete. Duke is high profile school in more ways than just basketball. It has a broadly dispersed, successful, and well-connected alumni base that has grown up over the last 35 years thinking of basketball as a mark of pride for the school. This doesn't even include the basketball alumni, which, on their own, are an impressive even if you don't look at their accomplishments in the NBA. Duke now has prestige and money that doesn't look to dry up any time soon. Personally, I'm hopeful the next coach at Duke hits the ground running. But even if he (she? unlikely, but, hey, how cool would that be for gender equality ?) has a tough time, then I can't imagine the program not reaching into it's pockets to get a coach who will succeed. And if that coach doesn't succeed, I can't imagine Duke not doing the same thing again to find someone else. We'll never find another Coach K, but I believe that there are enough good coaches out there that Duke will be competing for national titles long after K retires.

[yancem]

Could not agree more. UNC will be very good again. The question is just how long.



Count me in the camp who is veeery worried about succession planning. It's not that there aren't suitors (there are), it's that Duke doesn't have the history of the other 5 true blue bloods (UNC, UCLA, Indiana, UK, KU) with Duke being the 6th true blue blood. Duke is the only school to not have championships with multiple coaches. Duke is the only school to not have a championship before 1990. To say that Duke's history is on par with these other schools is, IMO, disingenuous. We have been the most dominant school since the early 1990s, but I firmly believe that sustaining the success at Duke will be more challenging than the other 5 schools. IU and UCLA are living proof that even the strongest blue bloods cannot sustain success if they don't have the right infrastructure in place. I'm sure Coach K will leave the program in capable hands (Capel-able hands?), but I'm banking on plenty of tough road blocks ahead.

I'm not sure how much I agree with this point. You are correct that Duke didn't win a championship before 1990 but they were in how many final 4's (7?) under 3 different coaches. Also, I don't think that Indiana has had a NC since 1987 (and only 1 or 2 F4 since 1990?). UCLA went to a couple F4 recently but their last NC was 1995. Duke is also well ahead of Indiana (300) and UCLA (250) in most wins while less than 100 wins behind unc and KU (UK is +126). Also, while most of Duke's success has come in the K era, that era stretches for over 30 years which is plenty of time. It is all the recruits of today (and most of their parents) can really remember. Plus Duke has 5 NC's which is more than KU and tied with Indiana and unc. I doubt that UK's 4 NC's prior to 1960 help them too much nor does Indiana's 2, KU's 1 or unc's 1. Lastly, Duke has as strong of a coaching tree as anyone out there giving them as good or better chance then any of the other blue boods when it comes time to bring in a good replacement coach.

[Saratoga2]

Nice pickup for the 'Cuse.

But it's also evidence that the blue-blood programs have remarkable resiliency in the face of disaster. Syracuse is coming off NCAA probation, they are still dealing with scholarship reductions and a post-season ban and their Hall of Fame coach is retiring in a couple of years -- and they can still recruit elite talent.

I bring this up because many want to see a quick resolution to the UNC scandal. That's the WORST thing that could happen from our point of view. As soon as the issue is resolved and the penalties are served (the post-season ban anyway), North Carolina will be North Carolina again. It's the uncertainty of the future that has hamstrung their recruiting.

Take your time deciding this one NCAA -- at least until Harry Giles, Dennis Smith and Bam (I can never remember his full name) are locked up by rivals. Amazingly bad timing for the Heels - the best in-state recruiting class in history (two top 5 and three top 20 prospects) and they are going to get shut out after three decades of getting almost every in-state guy they wanted.

UNC has been cheating for years on end. What do they go back to?

[-jk]

I'm not sure how much I agree with this point. You are correct that Duke didn't win a championship before 1990 but they were in how many final 4's (7?) under 3 different coaches. Also, I don't think that Indiana has had a NC since 1987 (and only 1 or 2 F4 since 1990?). UCLA went to a couple F4 recently but their last NC was 1995. Duke is also well ahead of Indiana (300) and UCLA (250) in most wins while less than 100 wins behind unc and KU (UK is +126). Also, while most of Duke's success has come in the K era, that era stretches for over 30 years which is plenty of time. It is all the recruits of today (and most of their parents) can really remember. Plus Duke has 5 NC's which is more than KU and tied with Indiana and unc. I doubt that UK's 4 NC's prior to 1960 help them too much nor does Indiana's 2, KU's 1 or unc's 1. Lastly, Duke has as strong of a coaching tree as anyone out there giving them as good or better chance then any of the other blue boods when it comes time to bring in a good replacement coach.

Also have to point out that K managed to move Duke all the way from #5 all time wins to #4! Duke has been Blue for ages... (St John's, #4 when K took over at Duke, is now #8. But that's a different story.)

-jk

[-jk]

UNC has been cheating for years on end. What do they go back to?

I have a bad feeling they'll not go back any. Just lose a scholarship or two for a couple years. <sigh>

-jk

[Duke95]

I have a bad feeling they'll not go back any. Just lose a scholarship or two for a couple years. <sigh>

-jk

OTOH, I think that, for MBB, UNC will:

1. Lose the 2005 and 2009 banners.
2. Forfeit the games during the fraudulent period.
3. Receive a 2-3 year NCAA tournament ban.
4. Lose 2-3 scholarships a year for the next 3 years.

Roy will leave UNC after this year. UNC will then shell out major cash to convince a coach to come pull their program out of the ditch into which they drove it.

I think Roy has half checked out already. He is getting outworked on the recruiting trail, something that should absolutely NEVER happen given UNC's current position.

[swood1000]

I have a bad feeling they'll not go back any. Just lose a scholarship or two for a couple years. <sigh>

-jk

You think that their recruiting difficulties are not significant or will not continue, and that there will probably not be any post-season restrictions?