Where will the points come from in 2015/2016

[dukelifer]

I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

He struggled in the All Star games for what that is worth. The kid will get there but I expect it will take a while for him to adjust to the college game - but you never know.

[mr. synellinden]

I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

As you often note, the players outside of the top 10 tend to be a bit of a crapshoot. Also, this year's class is generally considered to be weaker than last year's. There's also a lot of competition for 4/5 minutes with Obi, Jefferson, Plumlee and Ingram likely ahead of him in the rotation.

[CDu]

I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee were top-20 bigs that weren't ready to be major ofensive contributors right away. And in his minutes in the McDonald's game and Hoops Summit, Jeter didn't look the part of a college-ready scorer. Sometimes these guys need a little seasoning to reach the potential behind their rankings.

[Ichabod Drain]

Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee were top-20 bigs that weren't ready to be major offensive contributors right away. And in his minutes in the McDonald's game and Hoops Summit, Jeter didn't look the part of a college-ready scorer. Sometimes these guys need a little seasoning to reach the potential behind their rankings.

Not to mention Jeter doesn't even turn 18 until August. He's very young for his class, as is Ingram.

[CDu]

Not to mention Jeter doesn't even turn 18 until August. He's very young for his class, as is Ingram.

It is also widely considered a much weaker class than last year's class. For example, I am not sure that Ingram (#3 on ESPN) is as good as Winslow.

[Duvall]

It is also widely considered a much weaker class than last year's class. For example, I am not sure that Ingram (#3 on ESPN) is as good as Winslow.

Class strength is a factor, but Winslow was mostly just underrated going into last season - it's not like more than two or three of the dozen players rated ahead of Winslow in 2014 were better than him either.

A player rated ~15 can give a range of results as a freshman - you might get Justise Winslow, you might get Theo Pinson. Jeter will probably end up somewhere in between.

[Kedsy]

As you often note, the players outside of the top 10 tend to be a bit of a crapshoot. Also, this year's class is generally considered to be weaker than last year's. There's also a lot of competition for 4/5 minutes with Obi, Jefferson, Plumlee and Ingram likely ahead of him in the rotation.

Well, Jeter was ranked #8 in last summer's RSCI. I said top 15 because I assume he'll drop some in the final RSCI. So far he's dropped from 9 to 11 in ESPN; from 9 to 15 in Scout, from 8 to 16 in Rivals, and from 14 to 15 in 247. Depending on how he comes out with the remaining experts in the composite, I think he should end up between 10 and 15, with a good chance to be ranked a little bit better than both Ryan (10,12,14,17,19,20,32) and Mason (10,12,12,17,18,21,55).

Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee were top-20 bigs that weren't ready to be major ofensive contributors right away. And in his minutes in the McDonald's game and Hoops Summit, Jeter didn't look the part of a college-ready scorer. Sometimes these guys need a little seasoning to reach the potential behind their rankings.

I guess the question is will Chase Jeter be more like Ryan Kelly or Mason Plumlee? Both came on to a team that already had Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Miles Plumlee along the frontline, with Kyle Singler on the wing. Ryan hardly played, but after he got over his injury, Mason played 14 mpg.

The analogs here aren't bad:

Zoubek => Sean Obi
Mi Plumlee => Marshall Plumlee
Thomas => Amile Jefferson
Singler => Brandon Ingram

So, there's precedent for both sides of this: Chase could be like Ryan or he could be like Mason.

I guess my surprise is it seems near-unanimous that he'll be like Ryan. While I'm not sure anyone can know at this point.

[Saratoga2]

Well, Jeter was ranked #8 in last summer's RSCI. I said top 15 because I assume he'll drop some in the final RSCI. So far he's dropped from 9 to 11 in ESPN; from 9 to 15 in Scout, from 8 to 16 in Rivals, and from 14 to 15 in 247. Depending on how he comes out with the remaining experts in the composite, I think he should end up between 10 and 15, with a good chance to be ranked a little bit better than both Ryan (10,12,14,17,19,20,32) and Mason (10,12,12,17,18,21,55).



I guess the question is will Chase Jeter be more like Ryan Kelly or Mason Plumlee? Both came on to a team that already had Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Miles Plumlee along the frontline, with Kyle Singler on the wing. Ryan hardly played, but after he got over his injury, Mason played 14 mpg.

The analogs here aren't bad:

Zoubek => Sean Obi
Mi Plumlee => Marshall Plumlee
Thomas => Amile Jefferson
Singler => Brandon Ingram

So, there's precedent for both sides of this: Chase could be like Ryan or he could be like Mason.

I guess my surprise is it seems near-unanimous that he'll be like Ryan. While I'm not sure anyone can know at this point.

The NBA camp measurements listed him at 6'9" (stocking feet) and 236 pounds. He looked to move fluidly in his all star games but seemed to lack aggressiveness. He seems to have the physical gifts to be a really good player but may take some time to adjust to the physicality of the college game. His scoring ability wasn't evident in the all star games that were televised so that will be a wait and see proposition.

I find him difficult to compare to any of our recent players. Kelly was a little taller and longer but not as athletically gifted, but Kelly won the 3 point shooting contest as I recall. I don't see a close parallel with him. Mason Plumlee was similar in size and had some skill handling and scoring but to me in not really that similar to Chase. I guess with Chase we have a unique kid who we will need to watch as he develops and see what he can really do. He should get plenty of PT.

[JohnJ]

Interesting that in neither of the articles was there really any mention of Chase Jeter.

I agree this is interesting (and surprising). Every other top recruit got a mention and Luke got a lot of praise from Capel:

"Luke is a big-time scorer," Capel said. "He scores so well that his basketball IQ, his passing, those things are overlooked because you've got a guy that averages 40 points a game. You probably don't think he's passing that much, but Luke is a guy that doesn't need the ball that much, either. The ball doesn't get stuck in his hands. He either shoots it or he moves it. He's strong, strong-minded — that's where football comes in — he's tough."

For a top 15 recruit to not get a mention seems strange to me.

[Kedsy]

He should get plenty of PT.

Well, that's the question, isn't it? Seems like many people don't think he'll get much PT at all, at least not as a freshman. I'm not sure what to think at this point.

The NBA camp measurements listed him at 6'9" (stocking feet) and 236 pounds.

...

Kelly was a little taller and longer...

Ryan Kelly's pre-draft measurements were 6'9.75" (stocking feet) and 228 pounds. So Ryan is three quarters of an inch taller. Chase has a better wingspan (7'1.5" to 6'11.5") and a better standing reach (9'2.5" to 9'2"), so he's actually a little longer. Their weights appear comparable. I agree Ryan had more of a reputation as a shooter, but dimensionally they appear pretty similar. That said, Ryan didn't play much as a freshman.

[NSDukeFan]

Well, that's the question, isn't it? Seems like many people don't think he'll get much PT at all, at least not as a freshman. I'm not sure what to think at this point.

I also have no idea what to think but would love to have four years of between Ryan and Mason production, ideally minus a couple injuries.

[ChillinDuke]

I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

I understand what you're saying. And you used the word "conundrum" above, which I think is fitting to describe our front line's minutes.

That said, the glaring difference (as others have pointed out, and you probably recognize as well) between Justise and Chase is one of need. Last year's team had no slashing power wing (indeed, many teams did not). We had Sulaimon who was more of a lanky finesse, shooting wing and Matt Jones thought of (at the time; preseason) as a stationary shooting wing. Quinn was expected to play a considerable amount of time as an off-ball shooter. So the finesse and/or shooting wings were already pretty crowded. Jah was expected to be Jah. And Amile and Plumlee were more or less known quantities at preseason. So Justise, to go along with his solid recruiting ranking, had a clear role to fill. And filled it in spades, but that's after the fact.

Chase does not have the second part of the formula. He enters, as you mention, higher ranked than Justise. But he immediately goes up against two seniors (one a fifth-year), both of which were named captains, and both of which are more than adequate at rebounding and defense. Sean Obi, entering his third college season, is also expected (again, preseason) to give us more than adequate rebounding.

So in summary, for Chase to fulfill the second part of the equation that would lead to relevance in these preseason minutes/points threads, he would have to be a scoring big. And probably clearly so. I have not seen him touted as an impact scorer. Ever. If others have, please shoot a link over as I'd love to read about it.

So, yeah. He basically goes unnoticed in a thread like this while a guy like Luke Kennard (not knocking the guy, just stating what I've been observing for weeks now on DBR) gets trotted out there as an impact player when he (by the recruiting numbers) resembles the "Grayson Allen" of the class in comparison to last year. Obviously, I value K's words more than the recruiting rankings. But I think you [all] get my point(s).

- Chillin

[Saratoga2]

Ryan Kelly's pre-draft measurements were 6'9.75" (stocking feet) and 228 pounds. So Ryan is three quarters of an inch taller. Chase has a better wingspan (7'1.5" to 6'11.5") and a better standing reach (9'2.5" to 9'2"), so he's actually a little longer. Their weights appear comparable. I agree Ryan had more of a reputation as a shooter, but dimensionally they appear pretty similar. That said, Ryan didn't play much as a freshman.

Ryan had that look on the court as a smaller Kevin McHale. He could shoot, had a few moves inside and was a deceptively good defender and got his blocks without being a guy who got off the floor really well. It is hard to judge Chase, but he moves more like a small forward in a PF body. Can he put the ball on the floor and does he have any mid range game? Hard to know but neither Amile nor MP3 has those attributes although they should be way ahead on defense. I do think he is mmore of a raw athlete and can get off the floor. I think the real question is whether he can do well in the inside in the physical college game.

[jimsumner]

My best guess is that the 4/5 rotation will be pretty fluid next season.

Jeter could go all Elliott Williams on us, barely playing in November, starting in February.

[gumbomoop]

My best guess is that the 4/5 rotation will be pretty fluid next season.

And given the possibility/likelihood that Brandon plays some stretch 4, more fluid still. With an 8.5-man rotation, Jeter is likely to be either 8 or .5 for awhile.

With his effective go-to jump hook, he might provide a few interior points, but only if he's strong and smart enough on D. Whereas the lower-rated Kennard, with such a variety of skills and smarts on O, will get some good PT even if only adequate on D. I'll repeat a comment I've made before: I doubt there are 20 [10, even] better incoming frosh, in terms of smarts, multi-skills, and effectiveness. Repeatedly, the staff has hinted that Luke can play. The most interesting recent comment is Capel's: "The ball doesn't get stuck in his hands. He either shoots it or he moves it. He's strong, strong-minded — that's where football comes in — he's tough."

As for Jeter, they wouldn't build a Taymon Domzalski statue to him in Hooville, but he'd play big minutes up there early on.

[gam7]

Well, Jeter was ranked #8 in last summer's RSCI. I said top 15 because I assume he'll drop some in the final RSCI. So far he's dropped from 9 to 11 in ESPN; from 9 to 15 in Scout, from 8 to 16 in Rivals, and from 14 to 15 in 247. Depending on how he comes out with the remaining experts in the composite, I think he should end up between 10 and 15, with a good chance to be ranked a little bit better than both Ryan (10,12,14,17,19,20,32) and Mason (10,12,12,17,18,21,55).



I guess the question is will Chase Jeter be more like Ryan Kelly or Mason Plumlee? Both came on to a team that already had Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Miles Plumlee along the frontline, with Kyle Singler on the wing. Ryan hardly played, but after he got over his injury, Mason played 14 mpg.

The analogs here aren't bad:

Zoubek => Sean Obi
Mi Plumlee => Marshall Plumlee
Thomas => Amile Jefferson
Singler => Brandon Ingram

So, there's precedent for both sides of this: Chase could be like Ryan or he could be like Mason.

I guess my surprise is it seems near-unanimous that he'll be like Ryan. While I'm not sure anyone can know at this point.

I hope he is like both of them in terms of duration of time with the program. He is very young and saw his stock steadily rise during the time Duke recruited him, so despite his recent correction in the rankings, I like his trajectory. If he is patient, I see him being a very nice long-term piece, but not sure he sees himself that way (re: the "long-term" part).

[Kedsy]

My best guess is that the 4/5 rotation will be pretty fluid next season.

Jeter could go all Elliott Williams on us, barely playing in November, starting in February.

For what it's worth, Elliot Williams averaged nearly 16 mpg in seven November games his freshman (only) season at Duke. The month he barely played was January.

[CDu]

Well, Jeter was ranked #8 in last summer's RSCI. I said top 15 because I assume he'll drop some in the final RSCI. So far he's dropped from 9 to 11 in ESPN; from 9 to 15 in Scout, from 8 to 16 in Rivals, and from 14 to 15 in 247. Depending on how he comes out with the remaining experts in the composite, I think he should end up between 10 and 15, with a good chance to be ranked a little bit better than both Ryan (10,12,14,17,19,20,32) and Mason (10,12,12,17,18,21,55).



I guess the question is will Chase Jeter be more like Ryan Kelly or Mason Plumlee? Both came on to a team that already had Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Miles Plumlee along the frontline, with Kyle Singler on the wing. Ryan hardly played, but after he got over his injury, Mason played 14 mpg.

The analogs here aren't bad:

Zoubek => Sean Obi
Mi Plumlee => Marshall Plumlee
Thomas => Amile Jefferson
Singler => Brandon Ingram

So, there's precedent for both sides of this: Chase could be like Ryan or he could be like Mason.

I guess my surprise is it seems near-unanimous that he'll be like Ryan. While I'm not sure anyone can know at this point.

First, I wouldn't say I'm in the "Ryan Kelly comp" crowd. I could very well see Jeter as falling right in line with what Mason Plumlee did as a freshman: 14.1mpg, 3.7ppg, 3.1rpg. I don't see why saying that Jeter is similar to Plumlee suggests he should be discussed as a factor offensively. Plumlee couldn't get consistent minutes on a team that could absolutely have used a post scoring presence (until Zoubek figured out how to stay on the floor, our frontcourt was quite a liability). It wasn't for another year or two before Mason was a reasonable consideration as an impact player on offense.

[jimsumner]

First, I wouldn't say I'm in the "Ryan Kelly comp" crowd. I could very well see Jeter as falling right in line with what Mason Plumlee did as a freshman: 14.1mpg, 3.7ppg, 3.1rpg. I don't see why saying that Jeter is similar to Plumlee suggests he should be discussed as a factor offensively. Plumlee couldn't get consistent minutes on a team that could absolutely have used a post scoring presence (until Zoubek figured out how to stay on the floor, our frontcourt was quite a liability). It wasn't for another year or two before Mason was a reasonable consideration as an impact player on offense.

Mason's freshman season might not be a good analog for anyone. Many had him penciled in as the starting 4 until he suffered a pre-season injury. A wrist injury, IIRC. He missed a sizeable chunk of the preseason, fell behind Lance Thomas and never caught up.

Seemed to work out okay.

[CDu]

Mason's freshman season might not be a good analog for anyone. Many had him penciled in as the starting 4 until he suffered a pre-season injury. A wrist injury, IIRC. He missed a sizeable chunk of the preseason, fell behind Lance Thomas and never caught up.

Seemed to work out okay.

I don't think I'd blame his not-readiness offensively on the wrist injury. It's worth noting that Mason wasn't very effective offensively as a sophomore either (7.2 ppg in 25.9 mpg). Mason had real problems early in his career in reacting and making a secondary move. When he was able to do exactly what he planned at the onset of his move, he was as graceful and as a gazelle and incredibly effective and awe-inspiring. But when a defender beat him to the spot or bumped him and changed the path to the basket, he didn't handle it well. So I have a suspicion that Mason looked better in practice in preseason for a number of reasons: he was probably facing a slightly less physical opposition during practice than during games (though we go hard in practice, we aren't going to do too much to risk hurting each other in practice), and facing guys who weren't game-ready (Miles) or who weren't athletic enough (Zoubek) to stop him. I'm sure the injury didn't help, but given that he didn't really find an offensive game until he was a junior, I'm not sure I'd blame the injury on his low numbers.

That said, I definitely agree that Mason worked out fine over time, and that the 2010 season certainly worked out okay.