2015-16 Minutes Discussion

[ACCBBallFan]

I would tend to look at it this way:

PG: Thornton 30 mpg, Kennard 10 mpg
SG: Jones/Allen 25-30 mpg, Kennard 10-15 mpg,
SF: Ingram 15-20 mpg, Allen/Jones 20-25 mpg
PF: Jefferson 25-30 mpg, Ingram 10-15 mpg
C: Plumlee 10 mpg, Obi/Jeter 30 mpg

That's 30 mpg for Thornton, 20-25 mpg for Kennard, anywhere from 45-55 mpg for Jones and Allen, 25-35 mpg for Ingram, 25-30 mpg for Jefferson, 10 mpg for Plumlee, and 30 mpg for Obi/Jeter.

How the minutes for Jones/Allen break down and how the minutes for Obi/Jeter break down remains to be seen. But that's roughly the way I see it.

Maybe Thornton steals a few more minutes and bumps either Kennard down a few or one of Jones/Allen down a few. Maybe one of the bigs gets a few more minutes than I expect. But I don't see the quartet of Jefferson, Plumlee, Obi, and Jeter averaging more than 70-75 mpg combined, if even that much. Which leaves at least 125-130 mpg for the 5 guard/wing players. That's 25-26 mpg per player. They won't break down evenly, but I would expect all five to average over 15 mpg next year.

I am OK with all of this except Amile 25-30 is too high unless he develops a mid range jump shot. His 21.3 MPG last year is about right, perhaps a couple more. So I would bump the Obi/Jeter total to 35 MPG and 15 for MP3.

I ttied to counterbalance the tendency to put halos on all new recruits and to see every wart on the Devisl we know, along with recognizing that this year;s class is relatively weak.

25-30 Thornton 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Jones 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Allen 10-15 Ingram

10-15 Ingram 20 Jefferson 05-10 Jeter

20 Sean Obi 15 Plumlee 05 Jeter/Jefferson

Of the two I think Ingram logs more minutes than Kennard since he has less guys who can play his position as is case for Thornton. So even though they are both listed twice at 10-15 MPG in two positions I see Ingram at 25-30 and Kennard at 20-25, same as you..

[Saratoga2]

I am OK with all of this except Amile 25-30 is too high unless he develops a mid range jump shot. His 21.3 MPG last year is about right, perhaps a couple more. So I would bump the Obi/Jeter total to 35 MPG and 15 for MP3.

I ttied to counterbalance the tendency to put halos on all new recruits and to see every wart on the Devisl we know, along with recognizing that this year;s class is relatively weak.

25-30 Thornton 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Jones 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Allen 10-15 Ingram

10-15 Ingram 20 Jefferson 05-10 Jeter

20 Sean Obi 15 Plumlee 05 Jeter/Jefferson

Of the two I think Ingram logs more minutes than Kennard since he has less guys who can play his position as is case for Thornton. So even though they are both listed twice at 10-15 MPG in two positions I see Ingram at 25-30 and Kennard at 20-25, same as you..

I think your estimates are reasonable, however I do question whether the backup PG is only Kennard. I think Grayson also has the liklihood of getting some opportunities there.

[CDu]

I think your estimates are reasonable, however I do question whether the backup PG is only Kennard. I think Grayson also has the liklihood of getting some opportunities there.

I think that, when Thornton is not in the game, the concept of PG will kind of go out the window. I suspect that we'll work the ball fluidly through our 3 guards/wings (likely Allen/Kennard/Ingram) rather than having a true PG.

[subzero02]

I think your estimates are reasonable, however I do question whether the backup PG is only Kennard. I think Grayson also has the liklihood of getting some opportunities there.

From an admittedly limited sample size, I think Kennard's point guard skills are superior to Allen's with the exception of driving the ball to the hole in isolation. Kennard appears to have a better outside shot, midrange game, handle, court vision, and passing skills.

[Dev11]

It may be my imagination, but didn't the Field Marshall get a foul in his first 30 seconds every single game? If true, then more minutes would reduce his rate of fouling.

It might be a throwaway point, but Marshall's tendency to sub into games with way too much energy may be a reason for K to start him, while still limiting him to under 20 minutes. If he turns into end-of-season Zoubek, it would be an enormous boost, but I don't expect it.

There was another discussion up-thread that speculated that Thornton might not be ready to play big minutes. If that was the case, I don't think Ingram would have cited Thornton as a factor in his decision. Thornton may only play 25 because Allen/Kennard show enough ball handling, but he is probably getting 30+. As much as we like to say that K doesn't do positions, he does like to establish a primary point guard, and I expect that to be Thornton.

It's a long offseason.

[ACCBBallFan]

I think your estimates are reasonable, however I do question whether the backup PG is only Kennard. I think Grayson also has the liklihood of getting some opportunities there.

I think that, when Thornton is not in the game, the concept of PG will kind of go out the window. I suspect that we'll work the ball fluidly through our 3 guards/wings (likely Allen/Kennard/Ingram) rather than having a true PG.

I agreed. I showed it as a nominal Kennard but it might just as well be Allen or Jones, in fact more likely both kind of like when Scheyer was the nominal PG

It just gets too complicated to show 3 or 4 potential PG's, 5 SG's etc.

Allen, Jones and Kennard in particular are all interchangeable, so I just showed the one who appears to have the best non-PG PG skills, but Thornton will play as many minutes as a lack of foul trouble will enable.

[duke09hms]

Found this clip of Sean Obi's 2013-2014 Rice highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8FOe9GSwFY
Important takeaway is that when he steps out onto the court for us, he will have two years of improvement from that highlight reel. Practicing against Jahlil for a year must count for something.

PG: Derryck 30m, Luke/Matt/Grayson 10m
Wings: Brandon 25m, Grayson 25m, Matt 25m, Luke 5m
Posts: Brandon 5m, Amile 25m, Sean 20m, Marshall 20m, Chase 10m

Derryck and Brandon are locks to get ~30mpg if not more.
The only tossups are how Luke/Matt/Grayson will split up the ~65 mins available to them at wing and how Amile/Marsh/Sean/Chase will split up the ~75 mins available to them in the post.
I think returnees Matt and Grayson will get at least 25 mpg for their proven defense. I'm not as sold on Luke as some are here; I think he'll have to adjust to the faster speed of the college game.

Amile will hold on to his 25mpg from this year as his savvy defense and experience will be much needed, and for God sakes man, please work on your J this summer. Should be noted he missed 6 weeks last summer for a hip injury.
Sean will get at least 20 mpg, especially after hearing people say defensive rebounding skill translates the most. I would also give the nod to Marshall taking minutes over Chase simply due to college experience. Marshall will be in his 5th year at Duke, and Chase may take some time to adjust to college ball.

If K decides to go with the smaller lineup, the "loser" out of Matt/Gray/Luke will take minutes at the expense of Marshall and Chase.

Funniest comment on one of Brandon's youtube highlights: "Your contribution of $5 a month will help feed this child."

[Neals384]

OK, last update of the minutes forecast spreadsheet for now...I'll be off the forum for a while. If Duke has an overseas trip, I'll check in again and "close the entries" before that trip. Did you all know there are bragging rights and sporks for the most accurate forecast?

	Amile	Brandon	Chase	Derryck	Grayson	Luke	Marshall	Matt	Sean	Antonio	Walk-ons	Total
gumbomoop	22	25	16	30	25	22	18	25	18	0	0	201
neals384	25	30	13	25	25	15	17	30	20	0	0	200
Ice-9	30	30	5	30	25	10	20	30	20	0	0	200
jv001	24	30	10	32	28	10	20	28	18	0	0	200
ACCBBallFan	27.5	27.5	12.5	27.5	25	12.5	15	27.5	25	0	0	200
CDu	28	28	16	28	22	24	12	22	20	0	0	200
Li Duke	25	30	12.5	25	30	20	15	30	12.5	0	0	200
ChillinDuke	35	33	5	25	26	10	20	30	16	0	0	200
GGLC	35	30	5	25	25	15	20	30	15	0	0	200
gurufrisbee	24	28	20	28	28	16	16	24	12	2	2	200
JNort	23	33	20	34	31	9	15	27	6	0	2	200
ncexnyc	30	25	10	25	25	20	25	25	15	0	0	200
mr. synellinden	22	32	8	30	32	16	10	26	24	0	0	200
Troublemaker	30	35	20	25	30	20	10	30	0	0	0	200
flyingdutchdevil	27.5	32.5	15	25	25	10	12.5	27.5	22.5			197.5
79-77	28	33	12	31	25	12	15	28	16			200
Average	27.2	29.8	12.4	27.8	26.9	15.7	16.6	27.5	15.8	0.1	0.3
Std Dev	4.4	2.9	5.5	3.0	2.9	4.9	4.3	2.7	6.7	0.5	0.7

[NSDukeFan]

Ok, my two cents, from the, love seeing everyone play, perspective, but will not be disappointed when the team plays the starters more and the bigs less, and the team wins a whole bunch more games than they would if they played the minutes I am projecting, perspective.

Obi (18), Marshall (19), Amile (2), Chase (1)
Amile (25), Chase (10), Ingram (3), Obi (2)
Ingram (26), Matt (10), Luke (3), Amile (1)
Matt (17), Grayson (16),Luke (7)
Derryck (27), Grayson (9), Luke (4)

[Kedsy]

The Final RSCI is out.

Here are the Duke recruit rankings:

Brandon Ingram: #4
Derryck Thornton: #13
Chase Jeter: #14
Luke Kennard: #21
Justin Robinson: #95

(Antonio Vrankovic is unranked)

[NSDukeFan]

The Final RSCI is out.

Here are the Duke recruit rankings:

Brandon Ingram: #4
Derryck Thornton: #13
Chase Jeter: #14
Luke Kennard: #21
Justin Robinson: #95

(Antonio Vrankovic is unranked)

Interesting and impressive, to see Robinson ranked.

[roywhite]

The Final RSCI is out.

Here are the Duke recruit rankings:

Brandon Ingram: #4
Derryck Thornton: #13
Chase Jeter: #14
Luke Kennard: #21
Justin Robinson: #95

(Antonio Vrankovic is unranked)

Interesting and impressive, to see Robinson ranked.

Actually, that's not our Justin Robinson.
This one is a 6'1" PG who signed with Va Tech.

Justin Robinson profile

[Kedsy]

Actually, that's not our Justin Robinson.
This one is a 6'1" PG who signed with Va Tech.

Oops. Sorry about that.

[Bluedog]

Yep, our Justin Robinson is ranked 361 according to the 247Sports composite. Vrankovic is 199...I thought Vrank would be a bit higher (ie closer to the top 100) in all honesty. I guess ESPN is the only one that has him as 3-star recruit -- Scout and Rivals don't give him any stars.

[Indoor66]

Yep, our Justin Robinson is ranked 361 according to the 247Sports composite. Vrankovic is 199...I thought Vrank would be a bit higher (ie closer to the top 100) in all honesty. I guess ESPN is the only one that has him as 3-star recruit -- Scout and Rivals don't give him any stars.

Maybe our coaches see a diamond in the rough. I hope so.

[Neals384]

OK, bumping this thread. I realize there have been 2015-16 minutes discussions in other threads over the summer, but it's too much for me to collect them all. If you wish to be part of my unofficial 2015-16 minutes raffle, please post your guesses here. Deadline: before first exhibition game begins. Winner gets a huge basket full of sporks!

Entries to date (yes, changes are allowed):

	Amile	Brandon	Chase	Derryck	Grayson	Luke	Marshall	Matt	Sean	Antonio	Justin	Walk-ons	Total
79-77	28	33	12	31	25	12	15	28	16	0	0	0	200
ACCBBallFan	27.5	27.5	12.5	27.5	25	12.5	15	27.5	25	0	0	0	200
CDu	28	28	16	28	22	24	12	22	20	0	0	0	200
ChillinDuke	35	33	5	25	26	10	20	30	16	0	0	0	200
David Bunklley	20	29	16	25	27	18	17	30	18	0	0	0	200
flyingdutchdevil	27.5	32.5	15	25	25	10	12.5	27.5	22.5	0	0	0	197.5
GGLC	35	30	5	25	25	15	20	30	15	0	0	0	200
gumbomoop	22	25	16	30	25	22	18	25	18	0	0	0	201
gurufrisbee	24	28	20	28	28	16	16	24	12	2	2	0	200
Ice-9	30	30	5	30	25	10	20	30	20	0	0	0	200
JNort	23	33	20	34	31	9	15	27	6	0	0	2	200
jv001	24	30	10	32	28	10	20	28	18	0	0	0	200
Li Duke	25	30	12.5	25	30	20	15	30	12.5	0	0	0	200
mr. synellinden	22	32	8	30	32	16	10	26	24	0	0	0	200
ncexnyc	30	25	10	25	25	20	25	25	15	0	0	0	200
neals384	25	30	13	25	25	15	17	30	20	0	0	0	200
NSDukeFan	28	29	11	27	25	14	19	27	20	0	0	0	200
Troublemaker	30	35	20	25	30	20	10	30	0	0	0	0	200

[wilson]

Patrick Davidson: 200

[Neals384]

I'm revising my guess as follows:

Amile 30
Chase 10
Marshall 20
Sean 12
Luke 18
others unchanged

[Neals384]

Patrick Davidson: 200

We have a winner!

[Neals384]

Bump. Last chance - deadline to enter is 7 PM Friday