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  1. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    First, Rice is not a "bad D1" team. They are in Conference USA, which is a high-mid-major. Secondly, Obi ranked 31st in the nation in rebounds per game and was 10th in rebounds per 40 minutes. On that list, only a handful of guys played in a conference at the same level as Rice. So, I really don't think there were lots of guys putting up similar numbers, regardless of the level of competition. And he showed in his games against major conference teams that he could still get those rebounds (averaging 10.5 rpg against BCS schools).

    It is true that Plumlee wasn't going to get minutes as a true freshman due to the veterans in place, and it is also true that Obi wouldn't have played that year either. That doesn't make them similar in ability - it just means we had a wealth of talented and experienced big guys that year. Since then, Plumlee has continued to not get major minutes - even on a 2014 team that needed size and interior defense in the worst way in 2014. That doesn't suggest to me that he'd be an 11 and 9 guy if he played at Rice. In fact, nothing about his rebound percentages suggest he'd be anywhere near a 9rpg guy even now. Based on his current stats, he'd need to play 38mpg to match the per-game rebounding numbers Obi got as a freshman.

    This isn't meant to disparage Plumlee. He seems like a great kid and a hard worker. But I think you're underestimating how hard it is to average 9.3 rpg (and 14.1 rebounds per 40 minutes). I'd be surprised if Obi plays less than Plumlee next year, and I'd be more suprised if Plumlee puts up better numbers per minute than Obi next year.
    There is no way to prove what Plumlee would have done at Rice so admittedly I'm guessing. Whether Rice has a bad men's basketball program is less subjective. I have no problem imagining Plumlee averaging 9 and 11 against this competition. There are a few decent teams on there but there are more than enough cupcakes for Plumlee to pad his stats against. MP3 gets way more shot blocks and plenty of highlight dunks.

    2013-2014 SCHEDULE
    Overall
    7-23 Conf.
    2-14 Home
    5-9 Away
    2-11 Neutral
    0-3
    Date Opponent / Event Location Time / Result
    11/09/13 vs. University of St. Thomas Tudor Fieldhouse W, 69-60
    11/12/13 vs. Southeastern Louisiana Tudor Fieldhouse L, 63-62
    11/15/13 at Texas A&M TV College Station, Texas L, 68-65
    11/20/13 at Texas A&M Corpus Christi Corpus Christi, Texas W, 63-61
    11/23/13 vs. Princeton Tudor Fieldhouse L, 70-56
    Cable Car Classic
    11/29/13 vs. Rider Santa Clara, Calif. L, 97-93 (OT)
    11/30/13 at Santa Clara Santa Clara, Calif. W, 67-66

    12/04/13 at Houston Baptist Houston, Texas L, 73-71
    12/07/13 vs. South Alabama Tudor Fieldhouse W, 96-93 (3OT)
    12/19/13 vs. Northwood Tudor Fieldhouse W, 69-56
    12/21/13 vs. Houston TV Toyota Center L, 54-52
    12/30/13 at Texas TV Austin, Texas L, 66-44
    01/04/14 vs. Harvard TV Tudor Fieldhouse L, 69-54
    01/09/14 vs. FIU * Tudor Fieldhouse L, 71-60
    01/11/14 vs. Florida Atlantic * Tudor Fieldhouse L, 73-68
    01/16/14 at Southern Miss * Hattiesburg, Miss. L, 84-62
    01/18/14 at Tulane * New Orleans, La. L, 58-41
    01/23/14 vs. Marshall * Tudor Fieldhouse L, 73-63
    01/25/14 vs. Charlotte * Tudor Fieldhouse W, 71-69
    01/30/14 at UTSA * TV San Antonio, Texas L, 89-76
    02/01/14 at UTEP * El Paso, Texas L, 68-57
    02/06/14 vs. North Texas * Tudor Fieldhouse W, 75-70
    02/08/14 vs. Tulsa * TV Tudor Fieldhouse L, 66-56
    02/15/14 at Louisiana Tech * Ruston, La. L, 85-46
    02/20/14 at Old Dominion * Norfolk, Va. L, 55-51
    02/22/14 at East Carolina * Greenville, N.C. L, 67-55
    02/27/14 vs. UAB * Tudor Fieldhouse L, 61-60
    03/01/14 at Middle Tennessee * Murfreesboro, Tenn. L, 65-41
    03/06/14 vs. Louisiana Tech * Tudor Fieldhouse L, 70-48
    Conference USA Championship
    03/11/14 vs. North Texas El Paso, Texas L, 63-62 (OT)

  2. #122
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I have no problem imagining Plumlee averaging 9 and 11 against this competition. There are a few decent teams on there but there are more than enough cupcakes for Plumlee to pad his stats against.
    Again, looking at defensive rebounding percentage, which is a pace-independent, minute-independent stat, I don't think you're right. Sean Obi averaged 30.2% in defensive rebounding against that schedule, decent and awful teams alike. As a freshman.

    For comparison, below are junior (i.e., best version so far) Marshall Plumlee's defensive rebounding percentages against the low- and mid-major teams in 2014-15 Duke's schedule:

    Presbyterian: 19.0%
    Fairfield: 0%
    Furman: 9%
    Army: 19.2%
    Elon: 22.8%
    Toledo: 20.2%
    Wofford: 19.6%

    So, two poor defensive rebounding games and the rest pretty good. But nowhere near as good as Obi's defensive rebounding (30.2%), on average, against Rice's entire schedule. I can't say about scoring, but it's hard to see Marshall matching Sean's rebounding numbers if he'd played the same minutes in the same game situations as Sean did.

  3. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Again, looking at defensive rebounding percentage, which is a pace-independent, minute-independent stat, I don't think you're right. Sean Obi averaged 30.2% in defensive rebounding against that schedule, decent and awful teams alike. As a freshman.

    For comparison, below are junior (i.e., best version so far) Marshall Plumlee's defensive rebounding percentages against the low- and mid-major teams in 2014-15 Duke's schedule:

    Presbyterian: 19.0%
    Fairfield: 0%
    Furman: 9%
    Army: 19.2%
    Elon: 22.8%
    Toledo: 20.2%
    Wofford: 19.6%

    So, two poor defensive rebounding games and the rest pretty good. But nowhere near as good as Obi's defensive rebounding (30.2%), on average, against Rice's entire schedule. I can't say about scoring, but it's hard to see Marshall matching Sean's rebounding numbers if he'd played the same minutes in the same game situations as Sean did.
    I wonder how many rebounds y'all think Marshall could grab against the size and level of competition Rice faced? Maybe 7-8? Ok I'll go with that. There's always an advantage to keepin your feet on the ground on defense versusu shot blocking. At the risk of flogging a dead horse I'll point out that what minutes MP3 has gotten at Duke have been as an energy guy over-playing and hedging on the perimeter and generally running around like a chicken with his head cut-off vs. parking down low. In the few highlights we have to go on, Obi doesn't stray more than 10-12 feet from the basket.

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Marshall's had a few decent rebounders around him this year. Tough prediction, and Marshall probably isn't a measuring stick for this.

    -jk

  5. #125
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    First, Rice is not a "bad D1" team.
    Rice is definitely a bad D1 team. They haven't made the NCAA tournament, the NIT, or even the CBI in over a decade. More relevantly, the Rice team that Sean Obi played on was 7-23 and 315th in kenpom. If that's not bad, what is?

    I agree with you and Kedsy that it's probably safe to say that Obi is a better defensive rebounder than Plumlee even while taking team strength and SOS into account, but it's not clear to me at all that Obi will perform better than Plumlee overall next year. Frankly, I have no idea how the ordering of Jefferson, Plumlee, Obi, and Jeter will end up.
    Last edited by Wander; 04-20-2015 at 07:02 PM.

  6. #126
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Frankly, I have no idea how the ordering of Jefferson, Plumlee, Obi, and Jeter will end up.
    It would be very surprising if Jefferson doesn't lead that group in minutes next year, at least.

  7. #127
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Just to amplify CDu's point, Sean Obi was 3rd in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage his freshman year. So the idea that "lots of guys" on any D1 teams were putting up similar numbers is just wrong. Sean's 30.23% defensive rebounding pct. at Rice was almost twice as good as Marshall's career best (15.6%).

    That said, it appears Marshall is a better offensive rebounder than Sean is. But Sean is so much better at defensive rebounding that the two players' overall rebounding prowess can't really be considered close, even taking the difference in competition levels into account.
    MP3 appears to run out to the perimeter to double team often enough to put himself at a disadvantage rebounding defensively and often left the basket unprotected. Not sure he did this under the coaches instruction or his own judgment. He also seemed to be in the wrong place around the basket. With his size, strength and athleticism, he should be a force rebounding and defending. At times he is, but often it just appears his basketball acumen is not that good. I too like the kid and know he works as hard as anyone and is enthusiastic despite getting low minutes. In three years he hasn't shown much improvement in his deficiencies so it is unlikely he will make major imrpovement in the 2015/2016 season.

    I am hopeful that Amile will finally develop a 15 footer and pick up the leadership role that Quinn fulfilled last season. Sean and perhaps Antonio will get their opportunities and we will see what they can offer. Sean is so massively built to be almost scary. His strength has to be a big asset for him. The times I saw Chase play (very limited), he didn't seem to mix it up. Clearly he has height, athletic ability, fluidity and was good enough to warrant a #15 recruiting rating. If he truly has added some strength, it would be to his and our benefit. Still, some players may not be aggressive and that can be a hard thing to learn. I expect him to get the most minutes of our centers and possibly some at the 4 as well.

    One advantage not mentioned by others is we truly have an abundance of front court players now and should be able to withstand injury, sickness, foul trouble, etc, better than any of our recent teams.

  8. #128
    Quote Originally Posted by Saratoga2 View Post
    In three years he hasn't shown much improvement in his deficiencies so it is unlikely he will make major imrpovement in the 2015/2016 season.
    OK, here I'm going to disagree. While his defensive rebounding is only adequate for a man of his size, Marshall has shown vast improvement over his three years in most facets of the game. Here are some tempo-free, minute-independent stats for Marshall Plumlee:

    Code:
    Stat		Frosh	Soph	Junior
    oRtg		35.2	114.1	138.7
    eFG%		12.5%	55.1%	77.3%
    ts%		8.4%	51.2%	76.6%
    OR%		12.2	16.6	15.1
    DR%		13.4	14.1	15.6
    Blk%		5.7	6.6	5.5
    WinSh/40	-0.102	0.115	0.189
    PER		-1.8	14.3	18.4
    to%		31.2	20.4	20.0
    foul/40		4.1	4.6	6.2
    (oRtg=offensive rating; eFG%=effective field goal %; ts%=true shooting pct; OR%=offensive rebounding %; DR%=defensive rebounding %; Blk%=block percentage; WinSh/40=win shares per 40 minutes; PER=player efficiency rating; to%=turnover %; foul/40=fouls per 40 minutes)


    So, his offensive rebounding and his blocks haven't drastically improved (they were pretty good to begin with), and his foul rate has gotten worse, but pretty much everything else has improved by an incredible amount.

    Personally, I'm hoping for big things from Marshall next season if he can carve out a 20+ mpg role.

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