Frosh Draft Status - Okafor, Winslow, Jones Gone

[tux]

I completely agree with this. The comparison to Tyler just does not work. I personally think Kaminsky is under-rated even by some scouts. He is an all around player, already good at many different things and an extremely hard worker.

Okay. I didn't say their games were similar. My post says "Different players, but..."

But I sense that some folks are actually overrating Kaminsky based on recency bias and the narrative much like Tyler in 09. He's a very good player and should have a nice career, but I see his overall value/potential being at about the same level. We can just agree to disagree.

[NSDukeFan]

I know this is about oak.but just for the sake of it .did Kaminskys stock drop because of amiles wonderful job guarding him? I mean there are quicker and stronger guys in the nba.I believe that they will go as they would have before the tournament. My only question is do we lose two or three Early.

I picked Cleanthony in the mock draft last year and don't think he has any brothers playing, so I don't think we lose anymore Early. I find myself hilarious. (;

I can't imagine Jahlil not going number one. I remember how much I laughed this year at how ridiculously talented he was, how great his footwork is, how nobody could guard him. He didn't have the greatest tournament and missed a few bunnies against Frank in this matchup (off great moves), but he remained a very good passer, showed great ball handling for a guy his size and became a solid defender and decent rim protector at the end of the year. He also had no trouble defending any bigs inside one-on-one. I hope he stays to get better, but I can't imagine someone that talented not going number one.

[Dukehky]

I picked Cleanthony in the mock draft last year and don't think he has any brothers playing, so I don't think we lose anymore Early. I find myself hilarious. (;

I can't imagine Jahlil not going number one. I remember how much I laughed this year at how ridiculously talented he was, how great his footwork is, how nobody could guard him. He didn't have the greatest tournament and missed a few bunnies against Frank in this matchup (off great moves), but he remained a very good passer, showed great ball handling for a guy his size and became a solid defender and decent rim protector at the end of the year. He also had no trouble defending any bigs inside one-on-one. I hope he stays to get better, but I can't imagine someone that talented not going number one.

ESPN is pushing this narrative because they cover the draft and want it to be more intriguing so people will watch. Towns or Okafor? Okafor or Towns? Jahlil ate Kaminsky on the block earlier in the year, and he would have had 16-18 if he finished the shots that he makes 90 % of the time. And his on ball, man to man post defense is not a weakness, it is at worst average. Did he do a good job staying in front of a stretch 5 (a stretch 4 in the league)? he got toasted a few times, but I thought he was okay on defense, it was the rebounding that is the most concerning thing.

I would take Okafor over towns any day of the week. He's a better scorer and a better passer. The league is all about offense, and his defense can improve, as can his conditioning. I'm not saying Jah is going to be Duke's first hall of fame player, but he has as good a shot as anyone ever has.

That being said, if he wanted to come back, I'd be cool with that too.

[Duke95]

ESPN is pushing this narrative because they cover the draft and want it to be more intriguing so people will watch. Towns or Okafor? Okafor or Towns? Jahlil ate Kaminsky on the block earlier in the year, and he would have had 16-18 if he finished the shots that he makes 90 % of the time. And his on ball, man to man post defense is not a weakness, it is at worst average. Did he do a good job staying in front of a stretch 5 (a stretch 4 in the league)? he got toasted a few times, but I thought he was okay on defense, it was the rebounding that is the most concerning thing.

I would take Okafor over towns any day of the week. He's a better scorer and a better passer. The league is all about offense, and his defense can improve, as can his conditioning. I'm not saying Jah is going to be Duke's first hall of fame player, but he has as good a shot as anyone ever has.

That being said, if he wanted to come back, I'd be cool with that too.

Yep, agreed. I'll say that I obviously have not watched UK as much as Duke this year, but in the games I have watched, I've seen that Towns has benefited from the fact that he can bully opposing players without much fear of a double team because he had Lyles and Stein.

Jah is far more polished an offensive player than Towns. Sure, it's early, but his game is so much like Duncan's, it's uncanny.

[Duvall]

Jah is far more polished an offensive player than Towns. Sure, it's early, but his game is so much like Duncan's, it's uncanny.

Being offensively polished at a young age actually makes Okafor nothing at all like Duncan.

[gurufrisbee]

I know everyone says the money is only thing that matters and that's why these guys are all gone.

I just want to point out:

* Tyus and Jahlil wanted to come to Duke to play together. This is the ONLY time and the ONLY place where they can continue to do that (and Justise wanted to come play with them here, too).
* They will NEVER get to play for a coach this good again. Likely, not even remotely close.
* They are getting a great education totally paid for (and Tyus and Justise were all academic team picks, so clearly there is some real interest in education).
* There ARE still team goals they could play next year for (conference title, conference tourney title, repeat Final Four, repeat champion)
* There ARE still individual goals they could play next year for (Jahlil for National POY and Tyus and Justise basically got none in the regular season and Tyus got the couple MOPs in the tournament)
* They clearly LIKE playing together (brothers).
* Getting injured is NOT the end of your NBA dreams. Look at Embid. And Noel. And Irving. The fear over that is WAY overblown.

All that said, I fully expect all three to leave. I just know they have good reasons to come back, too.

[dukelifer]

I know everyone says the money is only thing that matters and that's why these guys are all gone.

I just want to point out:

* Tyus and Jahlil wanted to come to Duke to play together. This is the ONLY time and the ONLY place where they can continue to do that (and Justise wanted to come play with them here, too).
* They will NEVER get to play for a coach this good again. Likely, not even remotely close.
* They are getting a great education totally paid for (and Tyus and Justise were all academic team picks, so clearly there is some real interest in education).
* There ARE still team goals they could play next year for (conference title, conference tourney title, repeat Final Four, repeat champion)
* There ARE still individual goals they could play next year for (Jahlil for National POY and Tyus and Justise basically got none in the regular season and Tyus got the couple MOPs in the tournament)
* They clearly LIKE playing together (brothers).
* Getting injured is NOT the end of your NBA dreams. Look at Embid. And Noel. And Irving. The fear over that is WAY overblown.

All that said, I fully expect all three to leave. I just know they have good reasons to come back, too.

Hard to imagine but if they all returned- they might be among the most loved Duke teams of all time. Repeating is so hard though. But it is fun to think about.

[ACCBBallFan]

As with the recruiting process, all 3 frosh have family members working with them on the decision, not money grubbing handlers.

My personal opinion is that big Jah and Justise go, and Tyus stays, but who knows.

Clearly both Jah and Justise each have things they could improve on with another year of college play, but that is true of all NBA prospects.

[Eternal Outlaw]

With next year being such a weak class, Okafor would be looking at 10% more $$ in year one of next year as the #1 pick ($4,753,000) than in year 2 on this year as the #2 pick ($4,293,700) and another $488,000 more the following year.

Of course you never make up for the $4,108,800 that is foregone, plus have the risk of an injury affecting his future draft stock.

So a no-brainer from an economic standpoint, and just a case of how much Chucky wants to remain the #1 Cameron Crazie from an emotional standpoint, plus big Jah closer to his degre, etc.

In Justise's case, the numbers are more compelling if for example he went from #6 this year to # 3 next year, forgoes $2,736,100 but gets an extra million per year each subsequent year, as opposed to half a million per year for big Jah. I did not attempt an interest rate assumption.

That Mickie D All Star game showed what a weak class the upcoming one is.

Isn't the salary cap supposed to shoot up in 2016? Does that affect the rookie scale where a 2016 rookie is going to make a ton more than the 2015 rookie at that same spot or does the rookie scale stay the same?

[Neals384]

Today on ESPN Radio, Coach K said Jah is going to be "special" in the NBA [when he goes]...the way he said it left no doubt that he believes, in time, Jah will be a very big success in the NBA.

Coach K also said it would be great if Jah finds a mentor in the NBA as good as Anthony Davis has in New Orleans. And that Davis' relationship with the Pelicans coach (sorry I didn't catch the name) went far beyond player-coach.

My interpretation of his comments is that it was a very nice way to say that Jah is not ready as a man or player for the NBA, and if he goes, coach hopes Jah gets lucky and finds a strong mentor with whatever team selects him. (Or stays at Duke where he already has the best mentor there is!) But I'm reading between the lines here and that may not have been the message at all.

[awhom111]

Wonder if Billy Donovan will give Tyus and Justise a call to convince them to stay. "Hey guys, I don't want to have to find two new starters for the U19 team this summer and I want to try an all Duke lineup."

Of course if Donovan leaves for the NBA himself that changes things. I wonder who would take over at that point. Smart is probably too busy in Austin and Cooley probably would not be considered as having the credentials. Miller or Bennett would probably be the choice and I doubt Tony would call Tyus and Justise to tell them to come back.

[awhom111]

Isn't the salary cap supposed to shoot up in 2016? Does that affect the rookie scale where a 2016 rookie is going to make a ton more than the 2015 rookie at that same spot or does the rookie scale stay the same?

The rookie scale stays the same until the next CBA negotiations.

[cato]

I know everyone says the money is only thing that matters and that's why these guys are all gone.

I just want to point out:

* Tyus and Jahlil wanted to come to Duke to play together. This is the ONLY time and the ONLY place where they can continue to do that (and Justise wanted to come play with them here, too).
* They will NEVER get to play for a coach this good again. Likely, not even remotely close.
* They are getting a great education totally paid for (and Tyus and Justise were all academic team picks, so clearly there is some real interest in education).
* There ARE still team goals they could play next year for (conference title, conference tourney title, repeat Final Four, repeat champion)
* There ARE still individual goals they could play next year for (Jahlil for National POY and Tyus and Justise basically got none in the regular season and Tyus got the couple MOPs in the tournament)
* They clearly LIKE playing together (brothers).
* Getting injured is NOT the end of your NBA dreams. Look at Embid. And Noel. And Irving. The fear over that is WAY overblown.

All that said, I fully expect all three to leave. I just know they have good reasons to come back, too.

Who says money is the only thing? However, it would be irresponsible not to consider the impact on lifetime earnings. The amount of money is significant, and cannot be replaced easily.

It's easy to downplay the very real financial risk of electing to forgo a high lottery pick on the Internet. Probably a lot harder when you have some of the most respected people in basketball giving you advice on what would be best for you.

Also, don't forget that these kids all are dying to play in the NBA. Duke is great. The NBA is the pinnacle.

[crf30]

http://blog.chron.com/sportsupdate/2...se/#31706101=0

To me it seems like the consensus is this team won because of how closely knit they were. And I can't imagine they won't feel their heart telling them to come back. Of course, the head will tell them to take the money, as it should.

[freshmanjs]

I don't know what you mean by he didn't, but I assume we will find out shortly.

Side note, anyone notice how much Mike D is still contributing in the league this year? You put him on the right team, and his shooting is very valuable.

I think the point was that Dunleavy didn't leave after the 2001 championship run. He left in 2002 after a not-so-hot NCAA tournament.

Yes, CDu, that's what I meant.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Point: Jahlil Okafor wasn't even playing in the last part of a close national championship game.
Counterpoint: Well, neither was Karl-Anthony Towns.

LOL

Counterpoint 2: In an "off" game, Jah still scored 10 points in just 22 minutes of play including 4 in the last 3 minutes to push the lead from 1 to 5 while shutting down Frankie K on the other end in a critical possession that ended in a shot clock violation.

[Olympic Fan]

Just one comment. I saw the videotape of Tyus' interview today and I think some are misunderstanding what he said.

He did say that the decision of his two friends would impact his decision, but he quickly followed that statement with a very strong, "Of course, we'll all make our own choices."

I honestly do not think what he said today hinted at his decision -- either way. He still may go -- I'm not trying to raise false hope -- but I've talked to too many people who seem to think that he tied his decision to the choices Jahlil and Justise will make. I did not get that from what I saw.

[sagegrouse]

Just one comment. I saw the videotape of Tyus' interview today and I think some are misunderstanding what he said.

He did say that the decision of his two friends would impact his decision, but he quickly followed that statement with a very strong, "Of course, we'll all make our own choices."

I honestly do not think what he said today hinted at his decision -- either way. He still may go -- I'm not trying to raise false hope -- but I've talked to too many people who seem to think that he tied his decision to the choices Jahlil and Justise will make. I did not get that from what I saw.

OF: Here's how I interpreted Tyus's comment. "If Jah and Justise come back, of course that would affect my decision." That's the only opportunity for the three teammates to play together next season. Not a very good chance of that happening, is it?

[NashvilleDevil]

Today on ESPN Radio, Coach K said Jah is going to be "special" in the NBA [when he goes]...the way he said it left no doubt that he believes, in time, Jah will be a very big success in the NBA.

Coach K also said it would be great if Jah finds a mentor in the NBA as good as Anthony Davis has in New Orleans. And that Davis' relationship with the Pelicans coach (sorry I didn't catch the name) went far beyond player-coach.

My interpretation of his comments is that it was a very nice way to say that Jah is not ready as a man or player for the NBA, and if he goes, coach hopes Jah gets lucky and finds a strong mentor with whatever team selects him. (Or stays at Duke where he already has the best mentor there is!) But I'm reading between the lines here and that may not have been the message at all.

I think you're reading WAY to much into that comment. K has always said Jah was only going to be at Duke for a year. Jah is ready and I think he will be a really good NBA player.

[subzero02]

The rookie scale stays the same until the next CBA negotiations.

It looks like the CBA could be renegotiated as early as 2017 "if necessary"... at least according to Wikipedia. I had gotten the impression that there was a shorter timeline based on the media discussion.